The State of the Leafs - what do we have here, exactly?

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  1. zeke

    zeke #freeVladdy

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    With the pre-playoff break, I wanted to delve down and try to see exactly what we have here. I'm going to look both at this year's stats alone and the past 2yrs stats together to try and get a clear picture of what our players actually are. These are all the stats that I've learned to depend on as the most useful and accurate ones to assess hockey performance.

    This is my best assessment of the roster we have - and I'd love to hear your guys' own assessments as well.

    Feel free to add your own analysis or opinions or disagreements or clarifications or preferred stats.


    Letter Grades qoc = Quality of Competition measured by opponents' time on ice, Converted into Letter Grades for simplicity
    p/60 = points per 60 minutes
    p1/60 = primary points per 60 minutes
    CF% = Corsi For Percentage (i.e. shot attempts for percentage)
    xGF% = Expected Goals For Percentage (i.e. shot attempt percentage adjusted for shot quality) - this stat is already adjusted for zone deployment and game score
    In brackets = CF% and xGF% relative to team

    The first group of stats are Even Strength Stats, and I've added in special teams stats for the players with significant time there.



    The Franchise - Auston Matthews

    1YR: 62gms, 15:57 (A+ qoc), 3.03p/60, 2.71p1/60, 50.9cf% (+0.4), 53.3xgf% (+2.9) --- PP 2:08, 5.89p/60, 3.63p1/60
    2YR: 144gms, 15:30 (A- qoc), 2.59p/60, 2.34p1/60, 51.3cf% (+0.7), 52.6xgf% (+2.2) --- PP 2:19, 6.29p/60, 4.49p1/60

    Don't listen to anyone say he's not elite. Don't worry about his raw point totals. He's elite. He's super elite. He's unbelievable.

    ES Total Points per 60min: 1.McDavid 3.30, 2.Marchand 3.13, 3.MacKinnon 3.07, 4.Matthews 3.03, 5.Barzal 2.95
    ES Primary Points per 60: 1.Matthews 2.71, 2.MacKinnon 2.48, 3.Marchand 2.44, 4.McDavid 2.43, 5.Malkin 2.26

    Offensively, he is right there with anyone in the league. Anyone. And he does this against top-tier quality of competition (unlike guys like Malkin and Barzal there).

    And even the sample-size PP blip this year, after being elite on the PP last year, was almost erased with a little hot streak at the end there. I would look more at the 2yr PP stats than the 1yr PP stats, just for sample size.

    We have our franchise superstar.


    The Other Core 3 Forwards - Kadri, Willy, Mitch

    1 Year

    Kadri: 80gms, 14:39 (A qoc), 1.83p/60, 1.45p1/60, 50.0cf% (-1.2), 48.3xgf% (-4.0) -------- PP 2:05, 6.94p/60, 5.84p1/60
    Nylander: 82gms, 14:38 (A- qoc), 2.42p/60, 1.86p1/60, 51.4cf% (+0.9), 51.1xgf% (+0.0) - PP 2:01, 4.39p/60, 4.02p1/60
    Marner: 82gms, 14:09 (B qoc), 1.94p/60, 1.40p1/60, 52.1cf% (+1.9), 53.6xgf% (+3.5) ---- PP 2:11, 8.40p/60, 6.05p1/60

    2 year

    Kadri: 162gms, 14:30 (A qoc), 1.96p/60, 1.51p1/60, 51.2cf% (+0.5), 50.9xgf% (-0.3) -------- PP 2:08, 6.33p/60, 5.27p1/60
    Nylander: 163gms, 14:09 (B+ qoc), 2.14p/60, 1.55p1/60, 52.1cf% (+1.8), 51.9xgf% (+1.6) - PP 2:11, 6.59p/60, 5.57p1/60
    Marner: 159gms, 14:13 (B qoc), 2.08p/60, 1.53p1/60, 50.9cf% (+0.1), 50.9xgf% (+0.1) ----- PP 2:17, 7.49p/60, 5.16p1/60

    Three guys producing like legit 1st liners, and either holding their own possession wise against elite competition or dominating against medium competition. Willy may have separated himself from the other two at even strength this year, though Matthews helps him out there. Looking at the 2yr PP numbers, all three are similarly dominant on the PP.

    Of course, Mitch and Willy doing this as rooks/sophs is more impressive than Naz doing it in his prime, but at the moment, nobody should sleep on just how good Kadri is.


    Complementary Forwards - Worker Bee Group

    1 year

    Marleau: 82gms, 14:35 (A qoc), 1.57p/60, 1.20p1/60, 50.4cf% (-0.5), 48.1xgf% (-4.2) --- PP 1:59, 3.35p/60, 2.60p1/60
    Hyman: 82gms, 14:33 (A qoc), 1.73p/60, 1.47p1/60, 50.5cf% (-0.3), 52.5xgf% (+2.2) --- PK 2:39

    2 year

    Marleau: 164gms, 14:19 (A- qoc), 1.57p/60, 1.25p1/60, 51.0cf% (-0.2), 50.5xgf% (-1.5) --- PP 2:30, 3.59p/60, 2.24p1/60
    Hyman: 164gms, 14:08 (A- qoc), 1.52p/60, 1.23p1/60, 51.2cf% (+0.5), 52.5xgf% (+2.1) --- PK 2:43

    2 guys with speed and grit, both who are better called "3rd liners", but both who are performing perfectly in complementary top-6 roles. Both are playing against elite competition and holding their own possession wise. Both have produced at a solid 3rd line level, though Hyman has bumped that up to 2nd line level this year (again, though, that's aided by the massive improvement in Matthews and Willy there).

    Marleau is no longer effective on the PP though, and ideally would be replaced there. Hyman though is our top PK guy, and probably one of the better PK guys around.


    Complementary Forwards - Depth Scoring Group

    1 year

    Bozak: 81gms, 13:26 (C- qoc), 1.72p/60, 1.26p1/60, 52.4cf% (+2.4), 55.2xgf% (+5.5) ---- PP 2:11, 4.10p/60, 3.08p1/60
    VanRyk: 81gms, 12:35 (C- qoc), 1.84p/60, 1.59p1/60, 54.0cf% (+4.4), 56.0xgf% (+6.6) -- PP 2:16, 6.22p/60, 5.24p1/60

    2 year

    Bozak: 159gms, 13:42 (C+ qoc), 1.90p/60, 1.45p1/60, 51.7cf% (+1.1), 51.7xgf% (+0.9) --- PP 2:16, 5.02p/60, 3.68p1/60
    VanRyk: 163gms, 13:01 (C+ qoc), 2.13p/60, 1.72p1/60, 52.5cf% (+2.3), 52.7xgf% (+2.4) - PP 2:20, 6.01p/60, 4.59p1/60

    2 quality depth scorers who dominate possession more and more the easier their competition gets, but more than hold their own possession wise against other 3rd line competition. JVR is a good step better than Bozak across the board here - but Bozak is no slouch for this role, either.


    The Battle for the Bottom Spots - Veteran Group

    1 year

    Plekanec: 77gms, 12:59 (B- qoc), 1.30p/60, 1.06p1/60, 52.1cf% (+0.7), 56.5xgf% (+4.2) - PK 1:58
    Komarov: 74gms, 12:30 (B qoc), 0.67p/60, 0.40p1/60, 46.7cf% (-4.7), 47.0xgf% (-5.3) --- PP 0:41, 3.57p/60, 2.38p1/60 -- PK 2:34
    Moore: 50gms, 9:01 (F qoc), 1.34p/60, 0.94p1/60, 50.9cf% (+0.4), 49.2xgf% (-2.2) ------- PK 1:13
    Martin: 50gms, 7:58 (F qoc), 1.85p/60, 1.39p1/60, 49.8cf% (-0.9), 48.0xgf% (-5.3)

    2 years

    Plekanec: 155gms, 13:27 (B qoc), 1.18p/60, 0.89p1/60, 53.2cf% (+1.2), 54.7xgf% (+2.3) - PK 1:58
    Komarov: 156gms, 12:41 (A- qoc), 0.90p/60, 0.62p1/60, 48.9cf% (-2.3), 49.0xgf% (-2.6) - PP 1:24, 3.55p/60, 2.73p1/60 -- PK 2:21
    Moore: 132gms, 10:05 (D qoc), 1.28p/60, 0.87p1/60, 50.0cf% (-3.7), 49.8xgf% (-4.3) ----- PK 1:41
    Martin: 132gms, 8:19 (F qoc), 1.16p/60, 0.88p1/60, 49.4cf% (-1.7), 49.4xgf% (-2.6)

    So 4 vets here, all producing like 4th liners.

    Moore and Martin can barely hold their own possession wise, even against as soft competition as possible, and both are deservedly out of the lineup for good now. They're not NHL material at this point.

    Plekanec' production is strictly 4th line at this point, but unlike most 4th liners, this is a guy who is still more than holding his own possession wise even against 2nd line competition. And he's still a key PK guy as well.

    This guy is a luxury to have as a 4th line C and is the reason we now don't have to hold our breath everytime the 4th line is out on the ice.

    Uncle Leo - well, sadly, this seems to be what it looks like to see a player fall off the cliff. Last year he was actually solidly effective against elite competition, even if his production was poor. This year, though, he has fallen apart completely. Not only was he useless in his old role this year, but the demotion to the much easier 4th line role hasn't helped him even a little bit. He's still getting buried possession wise and his production is, well, embarassing. Funny enough, though, his special teams work actually hasn't been bad. On the PP he's been no worse than the other guys competing for that spot - Marleau, Brown, etc. And he's still relied on as a key PK guy - though who knows if he's actually the best guy for that role anymore?

    From this group, imo, what we're looking at is - Pleks is a very good 4th liner, Martin and Moore aren't NHL material, while Leo is borderline at best with PK work and character being the only thing giving him an argument to stay in.


    The Battle for the Bottom Spots - Kids Group

    1 Year

    Brown: 82gms, 12:00 (C+ qoc), 1.39p/60, 1.14p1/60, 50.0cf% (-0.9), 49.7xgf% (-1.7) ------ PP 1:10, 1.27p/60, 1.27p1/60 --- PK 1:49
    Kapanen: 38gms, 10:08 (D- qoc), 1.11p/60, 0.95p1/60, 52.4cf% (+1.5), 52.8xgf% (+2.7) --- PK 1:04
    Leivo: 16gms, 8:41 (F qoc), 1.77p/60, 0.88p1/60, 48.3cf% (+0.9), 50.3xgf% (+6.4) ---------- PP 1:52, 0.00p/60, 0.00p1/60
    Johnsson: 9gms, 9:41 (D qoc), 1.42p/60, 1.42p1/60, 59.7cf% (+6.1), 59.2xgf% (+7.7) ------ PP 1:17, 5.17p/60, 0.00p1/60 --- PK 0:42

    2 Years

    Brown: 164gms, 12:29 (B qoc), 1.42p/60, 1.17p1/60, 50.4cf% (-0.5), 49.5xgf% (-1.9) ------- PP 1:11, 2.47p/60, 1.85p1/60 --- PK 1:54
    Kapanen: 46gms, 9:58 (D- qoc), 1.06p/60, 0.93p1/60, 52.5cf% (+1.1), 52.2xgf% (+1.8) ---- PK 1:08
    Leivo: 29gms, 9:34 (D qoc), 2.42p/60, 1.76p1/60, 52.6cf% (+3.0), 58.9xgf% (+12.6) -------- PP 1:53, 3.28p/60, 2.19p1/60
    Johnsson: 9gms, 9:41 (D qoc), 1.42p/60, 1.42p1/60, 59.7cf% (+6.1), 59.2xgf% (+7.7) ------ PP 1:17, 5.17p/60, 0.00p1/60 --- PK 0:42

    It was tough to include Brown in this group but at this point I think we have to. IMO, he's not clearly better than the other kids, and the other kids could all play that 3rd line spot instead of him.

    But Brown doesn't suck - it's just that his production has stagnated at pure 3rd line level offense, and his PP production has been just not good enough. But he has almost held his own against strong 3rd line / solid 2nd line competition so far, and is a key PK guy. Right now I would call him just a good versatile 3rd liner - noting though that on this deep team, that might mean he actually should be on the 4th line.

    The other three kids it's much harder to suss out - both because they've received the easiest competition possible, and because their sample size is small. That being said, all three have been good to very good possession players so far, and they've all shown the ability to produce, too. Impossible to draw any conclusions on these guys but for me they have all looked like NHLers and could all be in the lineup right now - and higher than just on the 4th line, too.




    The #1 Dman - Morgan Reilly

    1 Year: 76gms, 18:15 (A qoc), 1.04p/60, 0.82p1/60, 51.5cf% (+1.8), 50.5xgf% (-0.5) ---- PP 2:11, 8.82p/60, 3.31p1/60 --- PK 1:08
    2 Years: 152gms, 18:32 (A qoc), 0.97p/60, 0.75p1/60, 51.3cf% (+1.0), 50.3xgf% (-0.9) -- PP 1:34, 7.39p/60, 3.06p1/60 --- PK 1:45

    The kid is a legit #1.

    Facing some of the toughest competition in the league (top-5 in hockey the last 2yrs), he is more than holding his own possession wise, and is producing at a legit top-pair level again. This year, finally given real PP minutes, he's shown that his impressive per 60 PP numbers last year were no fluke - and he's been one of the elite PP producers per minute in the league again this year. His PK usage has dropped this year, because Babs loves playing Hainsey/Polak/Zaitsev the entire PP.....but i'm not sure that's actually a good idea (just like his tiny PP minutes last year seemed silly, too).

    Either way, he's not quite a Norris contender yet, but he's a legit #1 all the way.


    The Enigma - Jake Gardiner

    1 Year: 82gms, 20:04 (B+ qoc), 1.21p/60, 0.76p1/60, 50.3cf% (-0.8), 51.2xgf% (+0.2) --- PP 2:04, 5.33p/60, 2.49p1/60
    2 Years: 164gms, 19:22 (B qoc), 1.13p/60, 0.72p1/60, 51.2cf% (+0.5), 51.4xgf% (+0.6) - PP 2:18, 4.29p/60, 1.59p1/60

    As I suspected, Jake's impressive possession numbers from previous year, when the analytics guys called him a #1 dman, have faded as his quality of competition has increased. This year he's finally received strong 2nd pair quality competition and is now only holding his own possession wise, unlike when he dominated softer competition. That being said, his even strength production continues to be excellent, top pair quality stuff, and his PP production is solid, too.

    What is Jake Gardiner? I dunno. I call him a wildly inconsistent but overall good puck moving 2nd pair dman. I'm not sure I feel comfortable calling him a top pair guy.


    The Abused Top-4 guys - Hainsey and Zaitsev

    1 Year

    Hainsey: 80gms, 17:44 (A+ qoc), 0.70p/60, 0.39p1/60, 48.4cf% (-3.1), 49.5xgf% (-2.2) --- PK 3:58
    Zaitsev: 60gms, 19:02 (B qoc), 0.65p/60, 0.54p1/60, 48.2cf% (-3.7), 50.2xgf% (-1.3) ----- PK 2:56 ----- PP 1:15, 3.76p/60, 0.68p1/60

    2 Years

    Hainsey: 152gms, 18:15 (A- qoc), 0.62p/60, 0.40p1/60, 48.8cf% (-2.3), 50.9xgf% (+0.2) -- PK 3:31
    Zaitsev: 142gms, 18:36 (A- qoc), 0.75p/60, 0.51p1/60, 49.4cf% (-2.2), 49.5xgf% (-2.3) --- PK 2:14

    So here's two guys who are just getting leaned on too hard.

    Hainsey is facing the toughest quality of competition of any dman in hockey this year - I like Hainsey, but that's just too much. He's a guy that should be used in a defensive 2nd pair role, not as an elite shutdown guy. And even his PK usage is a bit silly - he's very good there, but shouldn't be playing all PK every PK.

    Zaitsev is one of the guys who had a legit sophomore slump this year. Last year he had the excuse of facing elite competition, but this year he struggled even worse despite only facing 2nd pair quality of competition. He has shown signs of bouncing back since he came back from injury but still is a big concern. He hasn't been legit top-4 quality this year. I'm still bullish on Zaitsev but at the moment he'd probably best fit in a bottom pair role.

    I still like both these guys but right now I think they're both playing one pairing too high. (Though I expect Zaitsev to be better than that going forward).


    The Bottom Pair guys

    1 Year

    Dermott: 37gms, 15:31 (D+ qoc), 1.17p/60, 0.53p1/60, 56.8cf% (+7.2), 56.4xgf% (+7.4)
    Polak: 54gms, 15:07 (D+ qoc), 0.82p/60, 0.45p1/60, 49.5cf% (-0.4), 50.0xgf% (-0.8) ------- PK 2:30
    Carrick: 47gms, 14:47 (D qoc), 0.71p/60, 0.35p1/60, 53.5cf% (+2.6), 54.88xgf% (+5.4)

    2 Years

    Dermott: 37gms, 15:31 (D+ qoc), 1.17p/60, 0.53p1/60, 56.8cf% (+7.2), 56.4xgf% (+7.4)
    Polak: 129gms, 15:03 (C- qoc), 0.63p/60, 0.38p1/60, 49.2cf% (-1.9), 50.5xgf% (-0.5) ------ PK 2:44
    Carrick: 114gms, 15:12 (C- qoc), 0.53p/60, 0.32p1/60, 52.9cf% (+1.7), 53.2xgf% (+3.0)

    A little tough to judge these guys due to their soft competition, but we can still see some things.

    Dermott is legit dominating that soft usage. His possession is through the roof, and seems to clearly show that he deserves a promotion up the lineup. I'm not quite as impressed by his offense though - the primary points should give us some pause when looking at his impressive overall point production.

    As for the other two, there's no 2 ways about it - Carrick is a flat out better even strength player than Polak, by a good margin. Carrick still looks like a very good bottom pair guy with some 2nd pair potential, while Polak just looks like a passable bottom pair guy. Polak does seem to be a legit good PK guy, though, and for the #6 spot, that might be enough for him to "deserve" that last spot. But I'm not sure it's actually the best choice still.

    I honestly think it might be a good idea to put Dermott up with Rielly on the top pair, and Hainsey with jake on the 2nd pair. Even though it's probably too late to do that. But don't be surprised, when we get in a tough spot in the playoffs, to see Babcock do exactly this.



    The #1 Goalie

    Freddy Career: .918sv%
    Freddy w/ANA: .918sv%
    Freddy w/TOR: .918sv%

    Freddy This Yr: 66gms, .918sv%
    Freddy Last Yr: 66gms, .918sv%

    You get the idea.

    Freddy is a good solid workhorse legit above average #1 goalie. To win a cup, you always need your goalie to get hot, so hopefully Freddy gets hot at the right time this year.


    What is our Roster?

    Well, IMO, our roster is pretty much stacked. Franchise center supported by multiple 1st line quality guys behind him (including 2 who can play center), and with great enough depth that no matter what forward group we ice someone useful is probably sitting in the pressbox. On defense we have a legit #1 guy, 2 strong 2nd pair guys and 2 borderline 2nd pair guys, and a whole whack of guys to compete for the bottom pair spots. And behind it all sits a good strong #1 goalie.

    What are we missing? Well, for me, there's one obvious weakness. We could use one more reliable, dependable, legit Top-Pair Dman. That is the one piece we're missing. If we had that guy, then the rest of the defense would all fall into their roles perfectly.

    Next Up: How does this compare to TBay and Boston by all the very same metrics? (I'll get that done before the playoffs start I hope).
     
    Last edited: Apr 8, 2018
  2. TMLeafs17

    TMLeafs17 Why so salty?

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    Thanks a lot for this, great work!!
     
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  3. nobody

    nobody Registered User

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    Thank you for putting this together. I agree with the Dermott point of maybe trying him with Rielly. Babs has done this from time to time in games and to the eye they both look perfectly in sync when they play together. I see Dermott as a future top pairing guy but more of a player that will be known for his two way play than his offensive abilities. I think he's a perfect partner for Mo.
     
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  4. MattySnipes

    MattySnipes ☆ 1.625 PPG ▪20▪9▪1 ☆

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    Thanks @zeke

    Great work!
     
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  5. DarkKnight

    DarkKnight Opinions

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    Good job.
     
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  6. CantLoseWithMatthews

    CantLoseWithMatthews Registered User

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    Very good work.
    How do you feel about the performance of the team as a whole in all situations? It seems like we give up a lot of shots, but that it's totally by design as we're only concerned with limiting/producing quality chances, and we do that well enough from what I've seen. we also have an effective aggressive penalty kill, and a top PP that frankly doesn't get as many opportunities as it should.

    Also, do you see any areas of concern for us in the playoffs?
     
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  7. Apotheosis

    Apotheosis Registered User

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    We have the future best team in the East, probably in the whole league as well. Top to bottom, we're stacked. Every team has holes, but we have means to acquiring the fixes to said holes.
     
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  8. Clark4Ever

    Clark4Ever What we do in hockey echoes in eternity...

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    Zeke, I'll take your word for it. I couldn't refute anything you've posted even if I wanted to, lol.
     
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  9. Gabriel426

    Gabriel426 Registered User

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    Good job bro.
     
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  10. AnishLoomba

    AnishLoomba Registered User

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    i wonder what your response will be if boston and tb have better metrics
     
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  11. FlyingLeafus

    FlyingLeafus The Game, is the Game

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    We have to hope that Liljegren takes a step next year and potenitally follows the path that Dermott took this year
     
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  12. CantLoseWithMatthews

    CantLoseWithMatthews Registered User

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    the thing is they play wildly different games. Dermott is just a steady force out there, whereas Liljegren won't inspire the same confidence in Babcock when he plays, even if their talent levels are similar
     
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  13. FlyingLeafus

    FlyingLeafus The Game, is the Game

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    It'll be up to Timothy to work at his path to success, starting so young with the Marlies he'll see what is required to make the jump taking an example from guys like Dermott, Kapanen, Johnsson etc. first hand. I'm really glad they kept him with the Marlies this year.

    If he irons out his defensive game he and Dermott could make a deadly pairing with Lil providing the offense and Dermott backing him up with his two way game.
     
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  14. GrizzLeaf

    GrizzLeaf Registered Bear

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    Great job Zeke!

    Thanks for taking the time to do this. Greatly appreciated.
     
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  15. zeke

    zeke #freeVladdy

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    well, as my comments on the players suggest, obviously defense is still a concern. i don't really care about shot totals though.

    i think we've proven that we are legit better in terms of chances than shots. We may be only 13th in score adjusted 5v5 cf%, but we're 6th in scoring chances for %. that matches my eye test too.

    and note that we've improved since the TSN Turning Point of the season - when marner and brown switched, leo and martin were demoted, and dermott and kappy came in. Since that happened i think we're top-10 in cf% too.

    but I agree special teams are a huge strength for us - especially the PP, which in terms of scoring chances is by far the best in hockey.

    PP Scoring Chances per 60min

    1.TOR 78.9
    2.DAL 65.4
    3.SJS 65.2
    4.CGY 65.0
    5.NYI 63.9

    I mean that's just crazy good. If Matthews/Willy hadn't been so snakebit all year it woukd have been silly.....and it doesn't look like they're snakebit anymore.
     
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  16. Raging Bull

    Raging Bull Present

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    I'm fine with going under the radar. I think we all know how good this team is, and how little credit they've gotten for being a top 7 or 8 team all year long.
     
  17. Liminality

    Liminality Registered User

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    Don't really disagree with anything posted here. Good analysis of where our guys are at in their careers.
    I think Brown will do better next year and think he'll be in the good complimentary group of Hyman and Marleau eventually.
     
  18. CantLoseWithMatthews

    CantLoseWithMatthews Registered User

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    where do you get your data from? I've been using corsica and they say we're only 13th in xgf% at 5v5, which feels pretty low for a team like ours, and I wasn't sure how much faith to put into that. They don't list SCF% or HDSCF% as far as i can see, but I'm pretty sure we rank highly in that.

    Overall I think our team will thrive in the playoffs. We're masters around the net with regards to making plays, tipping pucks, etc. and that's very hard to defend against. We also will likely have a special teams advantage with whoever we play against
     
  19. nobody

    nobody Registered User

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    We sat at #6 in the league all year long until the end where we ended up tied for 6th. We equalled the record of the top team in the Metro division. All the critics/ haters and trolls make the Leafs deficiencies seem enormous and their accomplishments look minuscule. The way Leafs players get mocked you would be hard pressed to think they were better than a bottom 10 team in the league.
     
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  20. Trawna Phan

    Trawna Phan Registered User Sponsor

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    And here I thought we just had some really good players.

    Great job, OP
     
  21. luvdahattymatty

    luvdahattymatty Registered User

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    I love watching Dermott. From atom up he plays a strong game. Great technical skater, strong stick on puck, can lay a guy out here and there (very strong on his skates) (puts an intimidation factor into opposing attackers), has a mean streak in him.
     
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  22. zeke

    zeke #freeVladdy

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    I use naturalstattrick.com for scoring chances. and one of the guys on twitter did a nice analysis showing that scf% might be plain better than cf% , though it also found hdcf% is useless. naturalstattrick doesn't do zone adjustments, which makes their player stats less useful, but it does have score adjustments which is all you need for team stats. it also separates out chances, which is nice.

    corsica's the best but it has a couple issues this year that manny has been too busy to explain: 1) this year it only has one universal zone/score/venue adjustment. this works perfectly for players stats, but if it's the same adjustment for team stats then there's a problem, because it makes no sense to adjust team stats for zone. teams earn their zone advantage. 2) manny made big changes to his xGF formula this year and hasn't explained it yet. and the results are wildly different than they were last year. i'm not sure what to make of it this year, really, for players or for teams.
     
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  23. Stephen

    Stephen Registered User

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    If we had another versatile power center in the Bozak slot and maybe one or two Trouba type defensemen playing a top four role, that feels like a team that could win a cup or more. Soon.

    If we caught a hot streak and some bounces went our way with the other match ups, this could also conceivably happen this spring.
     
  24. AppsSyl

    AppsSyl Registered User

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    Thanks Zeke!
     
  25. Polaris1010

    Polaris1010 Registered User

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    1. Good job. You are true fan to do all that work.

    2. Tend to agree with almost everything you posted. Just some minor differences which not sure if they really are.

    Brown played on the 4th often and played with Bozak. His point total being down is understandable.

    Bozak I think had one of his best year as a Leafs player. He accepted his role and was good and reliable. That is all you want and expect.

    Komorav, another guy who has accepted his role, and he seems happier for it, not being one of the go to guys for scoring. Maybe back in Russia, but he's happy here with his new family. He will be back next season. With the kind of season he had, no one will be interested, other than the brass at Leafs Land.

    Zaitsev I thought he had a pretty decent season, although his offense numbers do not show it. Last year he played the power play. This year he plays the entire two minutes of the penalty kill with Hainsey. My view to judge a defenseman who is used in this way, defense first, is to judge how many goals are scored when he is on the ice. He probably is the Leafs best defenseman in that regard. Zaitsev is usually on the ice for 1 goal against every game, and he is usually up against the best from the other team. That is good enough to win. Put the others in the same role, it will be more than 1 a game, and at the worst times.

    3. Paradoxically, your post is a good point in why I do not follow advanced stats, semi-advanced or secret-advanced-stats.

    We are 90% in agreement.

    If you did not follow advanced stats, and wrote up a year end review, you are very knowledgeable about hockey, and you will basically produce the same post.

    I think, with the advanced stats, it should try to show something different. In the end of this season, it just shows what we know. Some minor differences that do not amount to much

    I think the advanced stats are still a work in progress.

    Anyways, thanks for sharing.

    :nod:
     

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