OT: The SportsBook Betting Thread - All Sports

[sa cyred]

How is your model accounting for home ice at a neutral site, @sa cyred?

In that case we actually took it out. We have separated our results from pre covid and post. But precovid it was apart of the factor.

 

[Lord Defect]

There are so many acronyms I don’t understand here.

 

[CanadianFlyer88]

In that case we actually took it out. We have separated our results from pre covid and post. But precovid it was apart of the factor.

Interesting.

Curious how the model went about picking Montreal today, even though it may pan out. Did Game 1 play into the reasoning?

 

[sa cyred]

Interesting.

Curious how the model went about picking Montreal today, even though it may pan out. Did Game 1 play into the reasoning?

I have to be abit careful delving tooooo much information since we are still developing it but I’ll be happy to answer some questions . But yep Game 1 is taken into consideration. The model takes into consideration multiple specific games, ALOT of data points, and other factors that affect the game that we don’t consider data points.

The model then gives us what unit size per game or in many cases DNP (do not play). Like above the Dallas game fell into the DNP section. I said 1 unit but that actually fell into the 0 unit because it was DNP. It did give Dallas a slight edge but obviously it was wrong. The edge in this case told us not to bet it. Which I guess was “right” since Dallas lost in the end.

I’ll post tomorrow’s plays but more for information purposes. I would not suggest to others, unless you do your own research on top of it, to take our picks at this time. We are abit worried because the post covid play is different then precovid. Example, traveling, home/away ice like you said isnt involved. What we are doing is testing out new scoring we wanted to do. We believe we can see a 3%-5% increase in win% with the changes. But with all models it’s going to take adjustment and more games.

 

[CanadianFlyer88]

I have to be abit careful delving tooooo much information since we are still developing it but I’ll be happy to answer some questions . But yep Game 1 is taken into consideration. The model takes into consideration multiple specific games, ALOT of data points, and other factors that affect the game that we don’t consider data points.

The model then gives us what unit size per game or in many cases DNP (do not play). Like above the Dallas game fell into the DNP section. I said 1 unit but that actually fell into the 0 unit because it was DNP. It did give Dallas a slight edge but obviously it was wrong. The edge in this case told us not to bet it. Which I guess was “right” since Dallas lost in the end.

I’ll post tomorrow’s plays but more for information purposes. I would not suggest, unless you do your own research on top of it, to not take our picks at this time. We are abit worried because the post covid play is different then precovid. Example, traveling, home/away ice like you said isnt involved. What we are doing is testing out new scoring we wanted to do. We believe we can see a 3%-5% increase in win% with the changes. But with all models it’s going to take adjustment and more games.

I don't gamble; it was just curiosity.

 

[sa cyred]

I don't gamble; it was just curiosity.

That last part was for everyone else

Funny enough gambling for me is interesting because of this kind of stuff. But I guess that’s because it’s what I do for a living lol.

 

[sa cyred]

Today's Model Picks

VAN vs MIN- Min ML - 2U
WSH vs PHI- Phi ML - 1U
VEG vs STL - DNP (it leaned STL slightly but said not to play)
TOR vs CLB - Tor ML - 2U
CAL vs WPG - DNP (it leaned Cal slightly but said not to play)

 

[Lord Defect]

Today's Model Picks

VAN vs MIN- Min ML - 2U
WSH vs PHI- Phi ML - 1U
VEG vs STL - DNP (it leaned STL slightly but said not to play)
TOR vs CLB - Tor ML - 2U
CAL vs WPG - DNP (it leaned Cal slightly but said not to play)

What’s the 1U and 2U stand for? 1 goal and 2 goals up?

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

What’s the 1U and 2U stand for? 1 goal and 2 goals up?

Units, amount that you wager.

So if your standard bet is $50, that's a unit.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Is it just a ML model or does it spit out puck line and O/U totals?

 

[Cody Webster]

@Hollywood Couturier I went down the PGA rabbit hole....

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

One day i'll take six dogs and actually win this kind of money.

Instead I do it on the days where 1/6 wins.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

@Hollywood Couturier I went down the PGA rabbit hole....

 

[sa cyred]

Is it just a ML model or does it spit out puck line and O/U totals?

This one in particular is ML only. We are in middle of developing a o/u one but that won't be ready until next season. One of the additions to the ML model is the idea of betting regular period vs. OT. All current ML bets are including OT. We have been tweeking it abit to see if we can adjust for high juice plays.

 

[Cody Webster]

Let's see it @sa cyred

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

This one in particular is ML only. We are in middle of developing a o/u one but that won't be ready until next season. One of the additions to the ML model is the idea of betting regular period vs. OT. All current ML bets are including OT. We have been tweeking it abit to see if we can adjust for high juice plays.

Let's see it @sa cyred

View attachment 358249

 

[sa cyred]

Let's see it @sa cyred

View attachment 358249

OH BOYYYYY - remember i did say not to tail it

 

[Cody Webster]

My name isn't Hakstool. I don't go into a shell and play for OT. Regulation or nothing

And he posted his message the same time I was posting mine. Don't wanna hear it

 

[Cody Webster]

Pokerstars had Tiger to make the cut at +300. Also had a prop bet for any player to record 18 pars in round 1.

Did some round 1 group winners as well on DK

 

[sa cyred]

Pokerstars had Tiger to make the cut at +300. Also had a prop bet for any player to record 18 pars in round 1.

Did some round 1 group winners as well on DK

I bet Morikawa to win R1 a few weeks ago. I bet $1.5 and brought in... $60+ I think it was

 

[Cody Webster]

I bet Morikawa to win R1 a few weeks ago. I bet $1.5 and brought in... $60+ I think it was

Course is looking pretty gettable right now.

 

[Young Sandwich]

Course is looking pretty gettable right now.

Are you watching on ESPN+ or what? What a f***ing sham trying to make me sign up for a streaming service to watch a major.

 

[Cody Webster]

Are you watching on ESPN+ or what? What a f***ing sham trying to make me sign up for a streaming service to watch a major.

Yeah, I have ESPN+. I forget what I got it for originally, but I've had it for over a year and never cancelled it. Back before the pandemic, they had a decent amount of NHL games available on there. Not bad for only $5 a month.

 

[Young Sandwich]

Yeah, I have ESPN+. I forget what I got it for originally, but I've had it for over a year and never cancelled it. Back before the pandemic, they had a decent amount of NHL games available on there. Not bad for only $5 a month.

I thought about just getting it for a month and cancelling, but I'm not going to give them that satisfaction.

 

[Cody Webster]

I thought about just getting it for a month and cancelling, but I'm not going to give them that satisfaction.

Are you sure!?