NHL Entry Draft The Sens Pick Tracker is Apparently Live!

[swiftwin]

Thank you for nailing it.

There are whole threads of Avs fans scolding each other for dwelling on The Sensplosion, from some sense of morals or fear of bad karma (real thing). But why are we all here, diversion, entertainment, and the Duchene trade is an irresistible story let alone when having a vested interest. As you illuminate, Ottawa is becoming Avs fans second favorite team for sure, with how close we watch what you got going on. Chabot for instance is who Colorado fans drool over the most. And Dutchy is deep in the hearts of any true avaholic.

ps the 1st rounder in the EK trade is a sneaky good asset being overlooked by most. The West is a bloodbath, San Jose could absolutely either miss the playoffs this year, or crater somehow next year (Your Ottawa Senators select: Alexis Lafreniere!)

Have to agree there. Even if SJ squeezes into the playoffs this year and EK walks at the end of the year, that 1st rounder next year could look veeeery good. We know how much the league is getting younger and faster. SJ has one of the oldest cores in the league. They could fall off a cliff pretty fast.

 

[Xspyrit]

Unfortunately it doesn't piss me off as much as trading away your first rounder then on a whim deciding afterwards its time to rebuild.

To be honest, the "rebuild" is not new, it was not decided around the Karlsson trade, it was started when they dealt Phaneuf.

So basically, what happened after a very successful 2016-17 season (98 pts, ECF game 7 double OT) :

1) November 5, 2017 : traded Turris (28 y/o, didn't want to extend him long term) + Bowers (recent 28th OA pick) + 1st in 2018 (top-10 protected but they were assuming it would be late-ish anyway) + 3rd in 2018 while dumping Hammond 1.5 M$ salary for an upgrade at center in Matt Duchene (26 y/o, a player they targeted for a while and planned to have long term). At that point, they still wanted to "improve" the team.

Everything was fine until they literally bombed the season. Then Melnyk lets go his frustration at the outdoor game and say regretful things, couple that with the shame of not selling out in the last playoffs, he orders Dorion to start cutting costs. That's where the "plan" changed (and you're right, it's crazy risky when you don't have your own 1st one of the next 2 years)

2) February 13, 2018 : traded Phaneuf (almost 33 y/o) and Nate Thompson (33 y/o) for a player that would eventually end up on LTIR (so 80% insured) and a 7th rounder in 2019 (return for Nick Shore). That move save the Sens ~12 M$ in the next 3 years, assuming Gaborik stays on LTIR. But that's without calculating the cost of Thompson (1 year) and Phaneuf (3 years) replacements in the salary cap structure.

3) February 23, 2018 : traded Brassard (30 y/o) + 3rd in 2018 for Pittsburgh's 22nd OA in 2018 (then traded for 26th OA and 48th OA) + Gustavsson (a very good goalie prospect that was desperately needed) + Pittsburgh's 2019 3rd round pick + Columbus 2020 3rd round pick (return for Ian Cole)

4) June 19, 2018 : traded Mike Hoffman (28 y/o) and a 5th in 2020 for a replacement winger in Mikkel Boedker (28 y/o) + an average D-man prospect + a 6th in 2020. That move save the Sens 5.3 M$ in the next 2 years. That move is a bit different than others because Boedker and Hoffman have exactly the same age. However, we know the context was very unique with the relation between his fiancee and Karlsson's wife. But Dorion should have found a younger player to fit with that "youth movement". I'm thinking that Hoffman's value was really hurt and not many teams were ready to take a risk with a player who can bring problems in your locker room (see : Evander's Kane trade value)

5) September 13, 2018 : traded Erik Karlsson (28 y/o) and Perron (prospect who fell off the map and wanted out) for Tierney (24 y/), DeMelo (25 y/o), Norris (19 y/o), Balcers (21 y/o), a 1st, a 2nd and two conditional picks.

Others gone : Alex Burrows (37 y/o), Johnny Oduya (36 y/o), Chris Didomenico (29 y/o), Gabriel Dumont (27 y/o), Fredrik Claesson (25 y/o)

Dumont and Claesson being the only "younger" guys gone but depth players at best. Everyone else gone is over 28 y/o.

If there wasn't for Hoffman and Karlsson, all of this made sense for getting younger and faster. And it's clear that you couldn't keep both Karlsson and Hoffman on the same team with the situation. One of them had to be gone absolutely.

 

[swiftwin]

To be honest, the "rebuild" is not new, it was not decided around the Karlsson trade, it was started when they dealt Phaneuf.

So basically, what happened after a very successful 2016-17 season (98 pts, ECF game 7 double OT) :

1) November 5, 2017 : traded Turris (28 y/o, didn't want to extend him long term) + Bowers (recent 28th OA pick) + 1st in 2018 (top-10 protected but they were assuming it would be late-ish anyway) + 3rd in 2018 while dumping Hammond 1.5 M$ salary for an upgrade at center in Matt Duchene (26 y/o, a player they targeted for a while and planned to have long term). At that point, they still wanted to "improve" the team.

Everything was fine until they literally bombed the season. Then Melnyk lets go his frustration at the outdoor game and say regretful things, couple that with the shame of not selling out in the last playoffs, he orders Dorion to start cutting costs. That's where the "plan" changed (and you're right, it's crazy risky when you don't have your own 1st one of the next 2 years). I would argue that some of Melnyk's comments were directed at the NCC (ie. The Sens can stay in Kanata if they have to), since he was in negotiation with them at the time.

1A)January 25, 2018: **Melnyk agrees to financial commitments with the NCC for the preliminary plan for Lebreton**

1B)February 11, 2018: **Dorion meets with Melnyk in Barbados (the infamous meeting where they decided to trade Karlsson), setting forth a plan to cut costs for Melnyk. In return, Dorion is given a 3yr extension**

2) February 13, 2018 : traded Phaneuf (almost 33 y/o) and Nate Thompson (33 y/o) for a player that would eventually end up on LTIR (so 80% insured) and a 7th rounder in 2019 (return for Nick Shore). That move save the Sens ~12 M$ in the next 3 years, assuming Gaborik stays on LTIR. But that's without calculating the cost of Thompson (1 year) and Phaneuf (3 years) replacements in the salary cap structure.

3) February 23, 2018 : traded Brassard (30 y/o) + 3rd in 2018 for Pittsburgh's 22nd OA in 2018 (then traded for 26th OA and 48th OA) + Gustavsson (a very good goalie prospect that was desperately needed) + Pittsburgh's 2019 3rd round pick + Columbus 2020 3rd round pick (return for Ian Cole)

4) June 19, 2018 : traded Mike Hoffman (28 y/o) and a 5th in 2020 for a replacement winger in Mikkel Boedker (28 y/o) + an average D-man prospect + a 6th in 2020. That move save the Sens 5.3 M$ in the next 2 years. That move is a bit different than others because Boedker and Hoffman have exactly the same age. However, we know the context was very unique with the relation between his fiancee and Karlsson's wife. But Dorion should have found a younger player to fit with that "youth movement". I'm thinking that Hoffman's value was really hurt and not many teams were ready to take a risk with a player who can bring problems in your locker room (see : Evander's Kane trade value)

5) September 13, 2018 : traded Erik Karlsson (28 y/o) and Perron (prospect who fell off the map and wanted out) for Tierney (24 y/), DeMelo (25 y/o), Norris (19 y/o), Balcers (21 y/o), a 1st, a 2nd and two conditional picks.

Others gone : Alex Burrows (37 y/o), Johnny Oduya (36 y/o), Chris Didomenico (29 y/o), Gabriel Dumont (27 y/o), Fredrik Claesson (25 y/o)

Dumont and Claesson being the only "younger" guys gone but depth players at best. Everyone else gone is over 28 y/o.

If there wasn't for Hoffman and Karlsson, all of this made sense for getting younger and faster. And it's clear that you couldn't keep both Karlsson and Hoffman on the same team with the situation. One of them had to be gone absolutely.

You forgot the two most significant events last year. I added them in bold red for you.

If anyone believes that Dorion himself decided on a whim to rebuild after traded for Duchene.... well.... I have a bridge to sell you.

 

[PeterSidorkiewicz]

I am not saying it was Dorion himself I was saying it was "mangement" IE Melnyk. The guy is not a forward thinker. Dorion just listens to his boss is my guess and Melnyk has his hands all over the "direction" and the decision making on this team.

You trade for Duchene, and the season goes to hell, you don't automatically completely abandon the direction of the team, and yes, that's what I think Melnyk did under the guise of a "rebuild" but as you said, in actuality, to cut costs.

He didn't want to pay Karlsson market value, so now the direction of the team is #OttawaRising

We all know that Melnyk thinks his customers are a bunch of idiots and rubes by the way they sell the team, speak, and portray themselves. I should have blown myself up years ago when I had the chance.

 

[Karl Prime]

Probably a typo where he meant tand shark

.......

I know. It was a bad attempt at humour.

 

[Xspyrit]

.......

I know. It was a bad attempt at humour.

Well, me too it seems

Yeah, the intent was "tanks hard", you said "tank shard", so I switched the "d" and "k" and said "tand shark"... I believe the word "tand" doesn't exist (although it seems like everything exists in the urban dictionary these days), but notice the shark? Since it's the Sharks we're talking about...

The fact that I have explain my joke probably means it's really bad. Maybe we should just delete all that

 

[Xspyrit]

I am not saying it was Dorion himself I was saying it was "mangement" IE Melnyk. The guy is not a forward thinker. Dorion just listens to his boss is my guess and Melnyk has his hands all over the "direction" and the decision making on this team.

You trade for Duchene, and the season goes to hell, you don't automatically completely abandon the direction of the team, and yes, that's what I think Melnyk did under the guise of a "rebuild" but as you said, in actuality, to cut costs.

He didn't want to pay Karlsson market value, so now the direction of the team is #OttawaRising

We all know that Melnyk thinks his customers are a bunch of idiots and rubes by the way they sell the team, speak, and portray themselves. I should have blown myself up years ago when I had the chance.

lol

Well yeah, but you know what? Even if he think his customers are idiots or not, it wouldn't change that he fact that he wouldn't just say the "whole truth" :

"Listen I am mad that we didn't sellout every game in the playoffs, and I am mad that the team totally sucked the following year, despite me spending ~68 M$ on the roster, so now we're going to replace vets by younger and cheaper players. I'm going to reduce the team budget by at least 10 M$ and we'll see what happens."

It's the same everywhere when things go bad. How do you think the situation was here in Montreal last year? Just like Ottawa but 10 times bigger.