Cowumbus
Registered User
Today I decided to dive into the central division standings to understand the likelihood of the Jackets making the 2021 NHL playoffs. Many members here are finally realizing that it is time to blow it up, or make trades to recoup assets heading into the draft as the playoffs are out of reach. Looking at the current standings:
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Then I decided to look at the projected standings if teams showed regression towards the mean, or improved through the season. Those point projections can be seen here:
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It has been said by multiple members of the media that 63 points is the target number needed to make the playoffs this year. If the Jackets were to hit the 63 point mark, they would need 42 points in the next 35 games. 42 points out of a possible 70, would mean the Jackets need a point percentage of 60% (a 20% increase from the current percentage), and regression from Chicago; worsening their current point percentage by over 10%. They also need Dallas to continue to stink.
6-4-0, 5-3-2, 4-2-4 the rest of the way... the problem is that every game is a four point game.
So, it looks as if the CBJ will finish somewhere in the 5th - 15th OA pick range.
Current draft class ranking (blue rectangles are the guys I would kill for):
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| GP | W | L | OTL | PTS | PTS% | Proj. Pt Total | GF | GA | DIFF | L10 | L10 Pt% | |
| Florida Panthers | 19 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 28 | 0.74 | 83 | 62 | 53 | 9 | 7-3-0 | 0.7 |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 18 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 27 | 0.75 | 84 | 64 | 39 | 25 | 7-3-0 | 0.7 |
| Chicago Blackhawks | 21 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 26 | 0.62 | 69 | 63 | 61 | 2 | 8-2-0 | 0.8 |
| Carolina Hurricanes | 19 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 25 | 0.66 | 74 | 65 | 53 | 12 | 5-4-1 | 0.55 |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 21 | 0.50 | 56 | 60 | 72 | -12 | 4-4-2 | 0.5 |
| Dallas Stars | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 0.53 | 60 | 46 | 40 | 6 | 2-4-4 | 0.4 |
| Nashville Predators | 18 | 8 | 10 | 0 | 16 | 0.44 | 50 | 42 | 57 | -15 | 4-6-0 | 0.4 |
| Detroit Red Wings | 21 | 5 | 13 | 3 | 13 | 0.31 | 35 | 39 | 66 | -27 | 3-6-1 | 0.35 |
| Average | 19 | 9.5 | 7 | 2.5 | 21.5 | 0.57 | 64 | 55.125 | 55.125 | 0 | 0.55 | |
| std dev | 0.1512868596 |
Then I decided to look at the projected standings if teams showed regression towards the mean, or improved through the season. Those point projections can be seen here:
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| Proj Total | Min Points | Max Points | 10% Improvement | 10% regression | 5% improvement | 5% regression | |
| Florida Panthers | 83 | 28 | 102 | 88 | 77 | 85 | 80 |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 84 | 27 | 103 | 90 | 78 | 87 | 81 |
| Chicago Blackhawks | 69 | 26 | 96 | 74 | 65 | 72 | 67 |
| Carolina Hurricanes | 74 | 25 | 99 | 79 | 69 | 76 | 71 |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 56 | 21 | 91 | 60 | 53 | 58 | 54 |
| Dallas Stars | 60 | 16 | 98 | 64 | 55 | 62 | 58 |
| Nashville Predators | 50 | 16 | 92 | 53 | 46 | 51 | 48 |
| Detroit Red Wings | 35 | 13 | 83 | 37 | 33 | 36 | 34 |
It has been said by multiple members of the media that 63 points is the target number needed to make the playoffs this year. If the Jackets were to hit the 63 point mark, they would need 42 points in the next 35 games. 42 points out of a possible 70, would mean the Jackets need a point percentage of 60% (a 20% increase from the current percentage), and regression from Chicago; worsening their current point percentage by over 10%. They also need Dallas to continue to stink.
6-4-0, 5-3-2, 4-2-4 the rest of the way... the problem is that every game is a four point game.
So, it looks as if the CBJ will finish somewhere in the 5th - 15th OA pick range.
Current draft class ranking (blue rectangles are the guys I would kill for):
