The Saad Effect (on Toews)????

Discussion in 'Chicago Blackhawks' started by hawksfan50, Aug 21, 2017.

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  1. hawksfan50

    hawksfan50 Registered User

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    First,realize that only 1 season in tge NHL has Toews ever surpassed 70 points (he had 76 in 2010/11)though he was over a point a game in the lock-out shortened season when he had 48 in 47GP ..but hard to project that he might have gotten over 82 points over a whole season that year had tgey played 82 (probably would have slowed his pace due to "grind of long season effect kicking in at some point .. but he probably would have made over 70 points nts easy.


    So given alk that and considering that with Saad for Saad's last 2 seasons with us before going to Columbus that Toews never got over 70 points, I ask ...ho Q much improvement if any will Saad bring to Toews posting better production this season?

    IF Toews gets 12 more points it raises him from 58 the last 2 seasons each to 70...that is a 20.68% improvement effect if we attribute it all to Saad's helping him...
    12 points or a bit more seems realistic ...


    But if tge effect is 20 more points ...thatvisvhowvhe over 34% improvement ...Is that realistic? 78points ?GI vendors Toews history it Wo us seem improbable to get that much "bump" up..

    Also consider Toews effect on Saad...Saad has never cracked 55 points...he never had over 50 when he was with the Blackhawks...only got over 50 twice with Columbus in his 2 seasons there.Do we expect Toews will help bump him to 60 points?Or do we assume Toews provides no difference to tge Saad production...or worse,do we assign a negative effect IF Toews pulls another stunt like his only showing up 25% of a season with an A effort abd 75% in "coasting " no hustle mode like last season and gives us another 6 week "burst" of top effort like the last 2 seasons and meh to p-poor in the other parts of the season before and after the muscle of tge season burst period ?If Toews gives us another season like tge last 2 with sub-par effort over tge Majority of "the grind",does this mean Saad will "regress" back to only 44 points or so ?


    Sure...if an injury to either hapoens to take 1 on them out any lengthy stretch,that would effect any chance of an increase in production and could lead to sub' par seasons...but apart from that ,we EXPECT a "clicking from tge Saad+Toews re-union..we EXPECT a big "bump" up in their production...but I ask ..is this realistic? AND so will there be a big bump -up...a medium bump -up ...or will another poir show by Toews drag down Saad too?

    Give your sense of which scenario hapoens?I will Sr the markers:


    A) Toews over 78
    points Saad over 65 points (home run!)

    B) Toews 68 points Saad 53 points
    (double ...realistic expectation)Back to "nornal".SAAD helps Toews but Toews no help to Saad to improve to his best yet season..


    C) Toews dogs it for 3/4 of tge grind ...again...drags Saad down ...
    Toews 58 points Saad 44 points .


    Which o f these scenarios or close to it do You forsee?

    Or will improvement by Panik due to his own "condfidence"leadi g to his "breakout" season to 35 goals and 35 asdists mean that Toews and Saad will post spectacular unexpected career bests of 85 + and 70+ respectively?

    In other words...is Panik's play more important for tge line production than the Saad and Toews effect on each other?


    If Panik is the real key to the success or not of the new "top line" , then we must ask if we saw just a 1 off by Oanik last season...or that 44 points is his plateau now ..or if it was just the beginning of his entry to the "next level"...to actual stardom?Is it realistic to expect even more from Panik?

    Consider all the above in how you think the line will perform...a big bump up ..a small bump ..or a big fail if Toews plays the same as last 2 seasons andif Saad cannot improve his best much and f Panik has plateaued already or regressed.
     
  2. ChiGuySez

    ChiGuySez Streak ends 108

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    C - Dogs it offensively and drags Saads offensive numbers down. Has had pretty offensive offense for the last 2 seasons. Not exactly Albert Haynesworth territory but...

    Not the same since coming back from Maccu Piccu.
     
  3. BobbyJet

    BobbyJet A new beginning?

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    All 3 players on Hawks' first line will need to be better than Blackhawk first line performances of recent.

    Kaner should make line 2 good and I have hopes for the 3rd line to produce as well. Hence, "a good offense is the best defense" could very well apply to this years team.

    I'll go with A but with numbers slightly lower .... say Toews 68 and Saad 60. IMO, Panik's performance is just as important for this line and the team to have a successful RS.
     
    Last edited: Aug 21, 2017
  4. Blackhawks

    Blackhawks Registered User

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    Saad is not going to fix Toews, only one who can fix Toews is Toews, its sad that Toews did not only destroy this team by his over inflated contract and his horrible performance but he tied the hands of his incompetent GM to trade a top 10 offensive talent in Panarin dismantling arguably the best offensive line in the league in efforts to spoon feed him back to form. That said and done, I really think this team's run is over and I will happily get rid of Toews, Seabrook, Crawford and Stan next year and start over if this team doesnt reach conference finals next year which they will not.
     
  5. CallMeShaft

    CallMeShaft Best HF Hawks Poster

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    It might just be easier to become a fan of another team rather than hold onto all this hatred and dread. Change your username to Maple Leafs. Could be good for you.
     
  6. Blue Liner

    Blue Liner Registered User

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    You're just all roses and rainbows! -His response, probably.
     
  7. Blackhawks

    Blackhawks Registered User

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    What does this have to do with hockey exactly? So if I am a fan of the team that means I have to accept its flaws and be happy with a smile on my face? Isn't the whole idea of cheering for a team is wanting them to win? Is this some kind of a child league where we are just happy the team is present and playing? It really boggles my mind how most think lol

    Is your comment supposed to bother me or something? Are you saying I am not an actual fan of the team? Posts like yours are pathetic and sad to say the least.
     
  8. BK

    BK "Goalie Apologist" Sponsor

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    I am. It is fairly obvious that you are not a fan of the Hawks. I get that it is your shtick and you have fun coming on here trolling but it is pretty obvious you are not a fan of the team. The difference between you and ItMyFault is just the username.
     
  9. Blackhawks

    Blackhawks Registered User

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    Cool story Mr. Expert!
     
  10. BK

    BK "Goalie Apologist" Sponsor

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    Thanks for the confirmation bud!
     
  11. Blackhawks

    Blackhawks Registered User

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    You are welcome lil buddy!
     
  12. Hawkaholic

    Hawkaholic Registered User

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    Why do you bother BK?
     
  13. JaegerDice

    JaegerDice Q Gonna Q

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    Blackhawks isn't right about much, but he is right that Toews is the one who controls Toews performance.

    Saad will help some, as Hossa's decline and subsequent move down the lineup basically forced Toews to do everything for his line. He was the guy carrying the puck in (when it was carried in, instead of dumped), he was the guy battling along the wall for puck retrieval, he was the guy that had to be back first, etc. Saad can contribute in all the same areas.

    But Toews was a possession driving machine while Saad was still riding buses in Saginaw. His personal performance has been down the last two seasons, and it's not all about linemates.

    The concern is simply that the miles and wear have simply added up. I hope it's merely a case of putting on too much upper-body mass, and a new concentration on speed will help. We shall see.
     
  14. CallMeShaft

    CallMeShaft Best HF Hawks Poster

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    What does pointing out your irrational behavior about a hockey team have to do with hockey? Really?

    I've said this too many times to you already, so maybe this'll be the final time I bother.

    NONE OF US WANT THE HAWKS TO BE ANYTHING BUT A LEGIT CUP CONTENDER EACH AND EVERY YEAR. HOWEVER, IN LIFE, YOU CAN'T ALWAYS GET WHAT YOU WANT. EXPECTATIONS NEED TO BE A LOT MORE REALISTIC THAN THAT AND IF WE DON'T WIN ANOTHER CUP FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DECADES, THEN MAYBE (PROVIDED YOU ARE AN ACTUAL HAWKS FAN) YOU'LL LOOK BACK AT PLAYERS LIKE TOEWS AND CRAWFORD WITH A LITTLE MORE RESPECT FOR ALL THAT THEY ACCOMPLISHED FOR THIS FRANCHISE RATHER THAN THROWING A TEMPER TANTRUM AND TALKING **** ABOUT THEM ON A DAILY BASIS ON AN INTERNET FORUM.
     
  15. Killer Boots Man

    Killer Boots Man Registered User

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    I have no clue but I hope it's a really, really, really good effect. Like a bunch of goals and assists
     
  16. hawksfan50

    hawksfan50 Registered User

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    Hey...Toews has assured us that he has changed his training regimen this summer to concentrate on speed and skills..but missing in big gobs most of the last 2 seasons except for the mysterious 6 weeks burst of hustle somewhere in mid-season..The issue may not be speed or skill but rather conditioning /sustainability of an "A" effort..eh ether mental lack of want or physical issues (too much muscle Trai ing depletes energy except for supreme extra "burst period which is short-lived ...or dietary issues of insufficient energy boosting items like Steak ...perhaps iron deficiency?...whatever ..he needs to find that mental and physical ENERGY in order to hustle to pucks...to skate faster for longer periods and for more games during a season ..he needsctobadd play to top form 75% of the games...not merely 25% like the past 3 seasons. .Will his changes in training and perhaps other things like nutritional changes get him back to the required level for a top $10.6 million asset ?We shall see..I hope so ..If we do get that ..then the Saad effect will obviously be greater because the Toews effect on Toews will enable Saad's contribution to Toews producing more to become enabled ..IF Toews reverts to 25% Toews again ..then nothing Saad does to help Toews is going to to make much difference ...
     
  17. hawksfan50

    hawksfan50 Registered User

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    If we postulate that Toews will get 70 points if healthy all season simply due to more pp time now that Panarin is not our PP and thay management ,embarrassed that our $29.5 m #1C pnly has put up 58 points each of the last 2 seasons such that they have ordered Q to give Toews time on our 1st pp unit ..
    PLUS that Toews himself assured us fans that he changed his training to work on getting g faster and that he will put more energy into his attack rather than worry as much about defense ...Given all tjis. .it ought to be safe to postulate at least 12 more points from Toews ,the majority coming from being back on the 1st pp unit ...This MEANS that IF he only gets to 70 points or so, that SAAD had no direct affect on his "improvement" ...since he got 58 without Saad each of the last 2 seasons and also did not get a lot of 1st pp unit time those 2 seasons...IF he gets 80-90 points then we can state Saad had a direct affect on extra 5x5 points by Toews ....Now if Saad is also given 1st pp unit time then it muddied the analysis of his helping Toews on the PP since we then could not determine if the extra 12 pp pints came strictly from Toews being on the 1st pp or because Saad again "helped " his pp production increase.


    IF TOEWS surprise everyone by Getti g 100 points or more
    ..then we can postulate that all 3 things contributed:

    1.Featured 1st unit pp time impacted his increase in pp points.

    2.Saad impacted in creasing both pp points and 5x5 points by Toews.

    3.Toews own change of training to get faster and his concentration on attack energy more than worrying about defensive energy expense (body and mind changes) had a significant impact on his points explosion.

    Of course should Toews get 90-100 points oi means Panik probably has scored 40 goals at least (in which case Panik will have only 1 more season after this with us as we will have to trade him cause we cannot afford the big monster raise on his next contract for the 2019/20 season.

    Also if Toews gets 90-100 points....surprising everyone include the fantasy league gurus ,it means the Hawks probably win tge entrap and tge Western Conference...easily .But to be "conservative"...bank on 70 from Toews merely from getting pop time back again with say 9 more pp points out of the total 12 increase.This seams like a logical lock.


    But if Saad is the real help 5x5 that everyone thinks,then Toews should get 80-85 points ...again logical deduction of more 5x5points due to Saad's impact on the line.

    If he gets close to or exceeds 100 points then the extra 9-12 pp points and the extra 13-18 5x5 points produced by Saad's impact is buttressed by a further 15-20 points due to Toews himself dedicating his body and focus to producing more offense ..

    So we ought to get a season of 70 -100+ points from Toews from these impacts....duh that if we see only 58 points again, it will be viewed as a big disappointment ...that Nothing worked to get more offense from him....and in that case the contract he got will be viewed as a real albatross overpay.

    Simply put...if healthy,Toews will have run out of excuses not to produce at expected levels to his pay grade...70 points is tge minimum bar which he should get by not improving but merely getting top PP minutes again...80-85;poi ts is a medium improvement benchmark given that we also expect some 5x6 production improvement by Saad being there as tge top LW help Toews was missing 5x5.
    ..

    THE 100+ benchmark I'm points scoring for Toews is the elite top benchmark that a $10.5 million elite star should be able to produce to justify the pay grade.So,this is a maximum benchmark ...But if he only gets the minimum mark of about 70 ..it means he could have got that just by getting 1st unit pp time anyway...and that Saad had no effect
    .so we traded Panarin for no real offensive improvement in such a scenario! Nor did the ballyhooed training changes have any positive effect !

    Simply getting to "Normal Toews" again (about 70 points) does not really cut it...He must produce a lot more than a 12 point increase .
     
  18. BobbyJet

    BobbyJet A new beginning?

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    It must be the dog days of summer when we get one poster essentially throwing in the towel by shouting it out in all caps .... and another thinking Jonathon Toews can redeem himself by possibly scoring 100 points in this league when he hasn't come close to that number as a pro.


    BTW ... training camp begins September 15. Thank goodness.
     
  19. Blackhawks

    Blackhawks Registered User

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    Deep breaths bud deeeeep breaths in and out innnnn and ouuuut. Expectations are really not that unrealistic, this team had the core to easily win another two cups and when it didn't happen then you have to put the blame on certain players and/or management. It's an Internet forum, I will say what I want and voice my opinion as long as it's hockey related, if you don't like it there is the block button buddy :)
     
  20. LDF

    LDF Registered User

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    it is a sports forum where fans can come together and to chew on the plus and minus of their team..... does this make anyone right, yeah, but it also make everyone wrong as well.

    this of this, this way, it is hanging out in a sports tavern and arguing with friends and strangers. it is all for the virtual knowledge that it is all for fun.

    enjoy the site for what it is, to bring fans together.
     
  21. ColdSteel2

    ColdSteel2 Registered User

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    I really have a strong feeling about Saad breaking out. I did a little research and noticed something interesting.

    Last 2 seasons
    Saad vs West: 48 points in 56 games, .857 PPG, +27
    Saad vs East: 58 points in 104 games, .557 PPG, -3
     
  22. Krisbryantisbest

    Krisbryantisbest @KBIB2311

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    Helps Hawks get Cup?

    Can care less about how many points they have.
     

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