The Ryan O’Reilly Discussion Quarantine Zone [All ROR Posts Here] (Mod Notes OP)

[SabresFan26]

The ROR trade can't possibly be decided on and won't be for years. There's so many future implications involved that it's hard to say.

Can Berglund be a solid bottom 6 player for 2 more years past this season (I think so), overpaid sure but he's not much worse than Okposo who makes nearly double him for longer.
Can Sobotka be a solid fourth liner for 1 more year past this season? Probably but he is overpaid and clearly helped balance RORs salary
Can Tage Thompson be a scoring winger with a great shot who puts up 50-60 points down the line. Probably especially with good complimentary pieces around him
1st round pick in 2019 from a team that might not make the playoffs with their goal tending but likely 12-22ish range who can be used to get a solid future piece
2nd round pick in 2021 can be used to draft or ammo at the deadline if were in a good spot at that time

for

Can ROR be a top 6 forward and put up 70-80 points, especially 5v5 and provide defensive responsibility for 4 more years past this season? Maybe but to sustain it will be tough when he already isn't the fastest of foot.

Time will tell.
Personally from the initial, I like the deal for Buffalo and I think it's strongly in Buffalo's favor as those contracts will be off the books as we re-sign our RFAs and we have draft capital to potentially get a really nice piece with that 1st rounder.

 

[Aladyyn]

You judged trades based on the value at the time of the trade. Anything else is meaningless.

 

[Crazy Tasty]

You judged trades based on the value at the time of the trade. Anything else is meaningless.

That makes no sense.

 

[SabresFan26]

You judged trades based on the value at the time of the trade. Anything else is meaningless.

Initially you can have an opinion of a trade, the reality is, until those pieces pan out, you can't really determine a final fact.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

Initially you can have an opinion of a trade, the reality is, until those pieces pan out, you can't really determine a final fact.

While that's true, you really need to use some sort of "expected value" at the time of the trade.

If someone trades a 2nd rounder one year for a 3rd rounder that same year, but the 3rd rounder is used to pick a better player who won the trade? I'd be pretty weird to think turning a 3rd into a 2nd would be a loss.

 

[Paxon]

Initially you can have an opinion of a trade, the reality is, until those pieces pan out, you can't really determine a final fact.

You can do either. Both have their place. A lot of randomness plays into how something actually pans out, especially with draft picks. What you suggest is not the best and only way to evaluate a trade. In many cases it is nonsensical, as illustrated by the reductio ad absurdum of trading Eichel (or Dahlin) for a pick. There's a difference generally speaking between whether something is a good decision and whether it works out favorably. The two ways of evaluating a trade reflect that.

 

[flashsabre]

The main point is that they believed ROR's attitude was poisoning the younger players and they wanted a reset and hand the ball to Eichel and surround him with positive vets who would support the young guys with a better team attitude.

ROR is a great hockey player but it wasn't working here.

 

[1point21Gigawatts]

This thread should just be pinned for the next couple of seasons. The trade will be argued and discussed until TT either breaks through or busts. Same with the resulting draft pick.

 

[Buffaloed]

While that's true, you really need to use some sort of "expected value" at the time of the trade.

If someone trades a 2nd rounder one year for a 3rd rounder that same year, but the 3rd rounder is used to pick a better player who won the trade? I'd be pretty weird to think turning a 3rd into a 2nd would be a loss.

You trade a player for a bag of peanuts. Then learn that the college free agent you're pondering signing loves peanuts. You take this as an omen and sign the player. He goes on to become an all star. In the metaphysical sense you have won the trade.

 

[Der Jaeger]

You trade a player for a bag of peanuts. Then learn that the college free agent you're pondering signing loves peanuts. You take this as an omen and sign the player. He goes on to become an all star. In the metaphysical sense you have won the trade.

I like peanuts. But I like chocolate covered almonds better. Wished you used them in your example. But I get what you're saying.

 

[TehDoak]

Interesting comments from Housley on WGR about the difference in this year's leadership group. I think it speaks to the main reason ROR was moved.

Housley on the leadership group's influence on the locker room:
"We tend to come to the rink the next day and it was 'woe is me!', and it just seemed that whenever we've faced a little bit of adversity, our leadership group has done a terrific job of corralling the guys, getting our focus back. That's one of the changes I've seen this year. Our leadership group has done a terrific job of leading in the right way, leading by example. We're going to have to lean on those guys, at times, during the season, but I really like the focus in the next day in practice and you can see it payed dividends against New York."

Him saying something positive about the leadership group this year isn't saying something bad about RoR.

I said this previously about the O'Reilly trade. Part of the reason for moving him wasn't that RoR was a bad player or even bad in the locker room. It's that the young core expected him (and to some extent Kane as well) to provide leadership rather than taking up leadership for themselves. Removing them from the equation forces Eichel, Reinhart, Risto to step up and be the leaders.

 

[Dreakon13]

I said this previously about the O'Reilly trade. Part of the reason for moving him wasn't that RoR was a bad player or even bad in the locker room. It's that the young core expected him (and to some extent Kane as well) to provide leadership rather than taking up leadership for themselves. Removing them from the equation forces Eichel, Reinhart, Risto to step up and be the leaders.

I think that's probably a reasonable view of the situation. It's also that Eichel, Reinhart and Risto have more than just Scandella and a mentally exhausted Okposo to lean on this year as the team faces adversity (and they will if they haven't yet). The team is littered with positive vet influences now... Eichel, Reinhart and Risto are another year older and more mature... as well as more young guys to benefit from all of it.

It's just a better situation all around IMO.

 

[flashsabre]

Him saying something positive about the leadership group this year isn't saying something bad about RoR.

I said this previously about the O'Reilly trade. Part of the reason for moving him wasn't that RoR was a bad player or even bad in the locker room. It's that the young core expected him (and to some extent Kane as well) to provide leadership rather than taking up leadership for themselves. Removing them from the equation forces Eichel, Reinhart, Risto to step up and be the leaders.

The whole "woe is me" mentality he states from last year is directly from ROR. That was every post game interview he gave, it was his "lost his passion to play speech". I just think management saw that as damaging the young players and wanted to move on from it and exactly what you said, make the young guys take a leadership role. I'm not indicating that Phil was taking a direct shot at ROR, just that that was a part of the negative attitude around the team last season.

It wasn't all ROR, Kane and Lehner all lead to a bad mix. It sounds like guys like Hutton and Berglund are big positive changes so far in that locker room and someone like Sheary as well.

 

[sabrebuild]

What exactly should one say after 3 losing seasons capped at the end by dfl finish? I mean everyone said the we need to be better crap.

So I ask what cheerleading could he have done that wouldn’t have made everyone furious at him for being a fake?

Given how last season went, Mark Messier could have been the guy answering those post game scrums and he would have been labeled as having a bad attitude.

 

[Beerz]

The woe is me mentality was spewed by every player last year ..not just ROR..

We are 3 games into the season people still feel good about things .. let me know in Dec when we are sitting on a pile of losses and see how the post game interviews go

 

[Der Jaeger]

The woe is me mentality was spewed by every player last year ..not just ROR..

We are 3 games into the season people still feel good about things .. let me know in Dec when we are sitting on a pile of losses and see how the post game interviews go

Only took woe-is-me posting three games to happen. We have to post better.....

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

It's unbelievable how Botterill and Housley managed to shift blame for a horrendous season from themselves on literally one single player.

It's unbelievable that this is the message you take away from the whole scenario.

 

[Buffaloed]

It's unbelievable how Botterill and Housley managed to shift blame for a horrendous season from themselves on literally one single player.

They're going after Reinhart next. The janitor saw the plans on Botterill's desk and called us. We have spies everywhere.

 

[VaporTrail]

Berglund and Sobotka are a dime a dozen...It's going to come down to Thompson and the draft picks.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

Berglund and Sobotka are a dime a dozen...It's going to come down to Thompson and the draft picks.

But "You judged trades based on the value at the time of the trade. Anything else is meaningless." That means the draft picks don't count...automatic loss. Botterill and Housley managed to fool everyone and tank the franchise, in one trade, just to cover themselves. I was able to understand this better after tightening up my tinfoil hat, and using extra-duty Reynolds brand on the windows.

 

[Paxon]

But "You judged trades based on the value at the time of the trade. Anything else is meaningless." That means the draft picks don't count...automatic loss. Botterill and Housley managed to fool everyone and tank the franchise, in one trade, just to cover themselves. I was able to understand this better after tightening up my tinfoil hat, and using extra-duty Reynolds brand on the windows.

Didn't realize draft picks don't hold value

 

[Dreakon13]

It's unbelievable how Botterill and Housley managed to shift blame for a horrendous season from themselves on literally one single player.

It's unbelievable how a full offseason of horrible overreactions and the echo chamber it became for a number of users and their agendas could lead anyone to this ridiculous conclusion.

 

[Montag DP]

Doesn't anyone in here get tired of rehashing the same old arguments with the same old people for the umpteenth time?

To summarize, we lost this trade on value, but there were possibly external circumstances that caused that, and we won't know how it will turn out in the long run for awhile. What more is there to say?

 

[sabrebuild]

Doesn't anyone in here get tired of rehashing the same old arguments with the same old people for the umpteenth time?

To summarize, we lost this trade on value, but there were possibly external circumstances that caused that, and we won't know how it will turn out in the long run for awhile. What more is there to say?

I suppose that last paragraph kinda depends on how much you think this years team could be better with O’Reilly on it and finding a cheap alternative to Sobotka.

 

[dotcommunism]

If you don't think there's anything more to say, you're more than welcome to not post in this thread. Complaining that the discussion is tedious is actually quite tedious itself, and does not actually contribute anything to any conversation.