Speculation: The Roster Building Thread - To the deadline and beyond!

geehaad

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Fair enough. Is there a team that can afford him that is already making the playoffs?

I realize that’s a tough question due to the fact that teams always seem to be able to shuffle pieces under the cap and fit in a contract we didn’t think possible, but at the same time, it’s gotta be feasible, and it’s not feasible with most contenders, right?
 

My Special Purpose

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I'll believe it when I see it. It's just that 27-year-old superstars, even ones who play out their contracts, don't usually switch teams. The whole situation reeks of Steven Stamkos two summers ago. Tavares, too, may get to July 1, but I just don't think he's going anywhere. Even with all the negatives for the Islanders that the Lightning didn't have, I just don't see how Tavares's situation is materially better if he switches teams. And I doubt very seriously that Snow will trade him because he knows this as well as we do.
 

Joe McGrath

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Fair enough. Is there a team that can afford him that is already making the playoffs?

I realize that’s a tough question due to the fact that teams always seem to be able to shuffle pieces under the cap and fit in a contract we didn’t think possible, but at the same time, it’s gotta be feasible, and it’s not feasible with most contenders, right?

Vegas?
 

Boom Boom Apathy

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Sep 6, 2006
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I really think JT isn't going to make it to UFA which is why I don't think there's much chance he'd end up here.

If he did make it to UFA though, I think the Canes, with a new owner, a young team with a young defensive group could make just as good of a pitch as anyone else. It's kind of the situation with the pitch that Ron Wolf made to Reggie White. For years, the Packers were "that team nobody wants to play for." Suddenly, they get a new GM, a new coach, acquire an exciting young quarterback (Favre), are on the upswing and they shock the NFL when Reggie signs there. That move literally changed that franchise as suddenly, other players wanted to play their.

Again, I think he stays with NYI, but if he doesn't, we'd have a chance.
 

A Star is Burns

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I believe there are plenty of aggressive teams out there that will find the cap space between a potential cap raise and getting rid of contracts. I also think there are probably other owners out there capable of making great pitches. I love what Dundon is doing, but some are acting like he's the greatest deal maker ever. We'll see.

In my mind, we don't need as good as any other pitch, or none better. We need to have a pitch head and shoulders above anyone else. We're the Hurricanes. I'm optimistic on most things. But I see no way we get Tavares. I very much hope I'm wrong, but very much doubt it.
 

The Faulker 27

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I believe there are plenty of aggressive teams out there that will find the cap space between a potential cap raise and getting rid of contracts. I also think there are probably other owners out there capable of making great pitches. I love what Dundon is doing, but some are acting like he's the greatest deal maker ever. We'll see.

In my mind, we don't need as good as any other pitch, or none better. We need to have a pitch head and shoulders above anyone else. We're the Hurricanes. I'm optimistic on most things. But I see no way we get Tavares. I very much hope I'm wrong, but very much doubt it.

RF is the deal maker, Tom is the monetary source and one who has said he'll do whatever it takes to win. I don't think anyone's acting like he's the greatest deal maker, just the best thing that's happened to the Hurricanes in a long time.
 

GoldiFox

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It's like you guys think PK is still here. The Canes ABSOLUTELY have a huge advantage in their Cap space. CREAM. Other teams might be able to scrape together $10-12 million after forcing some moves. The Canes, Coyotes, and Islanders are the only teams that could conceivably offer him $14-15 million. The Current Canes team is just a Cap team minus one $15 million Tavares. I think Dundon should and would offer that obscene amount.

One of the things Dundon said that stuck with me was "Superstars are always worth more than you pay for them". I think that is true of Tavares, no matter the number.
 

MinJaBen

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Fair enough. Is there a team that can afford him that is already making the playoffs?

I realize that’s a tough question due to the fact that teams always seem to be able to shuffle pieces under the cap and fit in a contract we didn’t think possible, but at the same time, it’s gotta be feasible, and it’s not feasible with most contenders, right?

Nashville can make the room to afford him. JT, Johansen, Turris (trade Bonino) down the middle would be unfair.
 

Boom Boom Apathy

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It's like you guys think PK is still here. The Canes ABSOLUTELY have a huge advantage in their Cap space.

I'm not sure how you can even say that. Nobody here is saying we'll low ball him because PK is here. Where most of us are saying is we'd likely make him a very competitive offer BECAUSE OF DUNDON, but other teams likely will as well so IMO, it's not going to come down to just money.
 

Blueline Bomber

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Yeah, Tavares doesn’t seem like the type of guy that’s going to take whatever paycheck is the biggest. When he says he’s loyal to the Islanders, I don’t doubt that he’s probably going to remain loyal to them.

Barring something catastrophic in the relationship between the two coming out, of course.
 

NotOpie

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To me it's because if he wants to leave the Islanders, he can find a team that has won recently, has just as good of an outlook to win in the future as we do, will likely go to a perceived better market. It's not like Dundon is the only owner willing to spend money and we're the only team with a decent outlook. I'll gladly eat crow if it happens, but I've maintained from the first BS rumor on here that there is a 0% chance he comes here.

I don't think there is an owner in the league who will have a better pitch/offer than Dundon. If Tavares makes it to Free Agency with an open mind then I like the Canes chances.

My question is whether or not he makes it there. That could depend on the Islander's Playoff hopes.

There are a number of teams that would be able to work something out w/Tavares. But, out West, the team that probably can make one of the better pitches is San Jose....yes so could Vegas and, interestingly enough, even with the loss of MacKinnon, Colorado could make a pitch.

Who would want to live in NY when they could live in Raleigh? We have a lower cost of living, better weather, and better looking women. If the income is the same, your dollar goes much further. No brainer in my book.

Have you ever been to New York City? There are world-class, unemployed models EVERYWHERE. Beauty is that city's business. Now I love me some southern girls, but there are very few places on the planet with as attractive of a female population as NYC.

That said, I prefer Carolina girls...
 

geehaad

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Ok, if the shade being thrown at this idea that JT signs here is based on the likelihood of him re-signing with NYI, I get it. What I'm not getting is this outlook that it is 99.9% certain he will re-sign with them. If it weren't termed as a pipe dream that he doesn't, then I wouldn't speak up, but to say it's darn near a foregone conclusion seems to ignore some pretty major aspects of this situation that make that end not even close to 99% certain.
  • JT could have already had everything he could want in his "payday contract"...why hasn't he signed it yet? What is his hesitation?
    • Say what you want about the relationship, but this question is clearly a significant factor in all of this.
  • Playing in Barclays for one year, then at Nassau for 2, then *maybe* getting to play at Belmont Park in 2021 isn't a rosy picture.
  • What will NYI look like next year and the next 5 years?
    • Beyond Bellows, this prospect pool B-lows.
  • Goaltending: NYI has an issue to solve there. Greiss (who they don't trust) at $3.33M for 2 more years, but who will be their #1?
  • NYI is already within $2M of the cap, and they aren't shedding significant weight next year just to remain the same mediocre team they were this year.
    • Subtract $6.5M for Kumelin's and Chimera's contracts.
    • Add $5M for JT
    • Add $2M-$3M for Josh Bailey's new contract
    • Brock Nelson: $1.5M raise (based on Cizikas' and Clutterbuck's contracts)
    • Add $3M for Anders Lee the year after
    • How much more than they paid Halak ($4M) do they spend on a #1 goaltender?
    • Do any of these defensemen get a raise? De Haan, Hickey, Pulock (yes on Pulock)
The fact that NYI doesn't have a bright future has to weigh on him. This is his one shot to put himself in a competitive situation for the rest of his career. If someone says re-signing with NYI is a 75% certainty, I won't disagree, and I won't agree that it's 85% certain, but I wouldn't die on that hill, either. However, any language that is in the 90-percent area is definitely debatable.
 

The Faulker 27

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There are a number of teams that would be able to work something out w/Tavares. But, out West, the team that probably can make one of the better pitches is San Jose....yes so could Vegas and, interestingly enough, even with the loss of MacKinnon, Colorado could make a pitch.



Have you ever been to New York City? There are world-class, unemployed models EVERYWHERE. Beauty is that city's business. Now I love me some southern girls, but there are very few places on the planet with as attractive of a female population as NYC.

That said, I prefer Carolina girls...


Yeah, yeah. I've been to NY a half a dozen times, and seen all their fancy models. There's also world class uggos too. Now I'm sure a guy like Tavares could get any unemployed model he wants, but if he's looking for a beautiful, world class gold digger that will wait on him hand and foot, he'd have his pick of the litter here in Raleigh.

/s
 

Boom Boom Apathy

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Sep 6, 2006
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legit players for Tavares:

Islanders (duh, their entire budget was built around the guy)
Vegas
Colorado
Carolina
Buffalo
Vancouver
Winnipeg
Columbus (possibly)
Calgary
Philly
Rangers

So if we go with geehaad's 75% chance that he'll sign in NYI, then go with this list and cut it in half and say Canes are 1 of 5 teams with a legit chance, then it means there's a 5% chance he'll sign here. :sarcasm:
 

RodTheBawd

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Oct 16, 2013
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Ok, if the shade being thrown at this idea that JT signs here is based on the likelihood of him re-signing with NYI, I get it. What I'm not getting is this outlook that it is 99.9% certain he will re-sign with them. If it weren't termed as a pipe dream that he doesn't, then I wouldn't speak up, but to say it's darn near a foregone conclusion seems to ignore some pretty major aspects of this situation that make that end not even close to 99% certain.
  • JT could have already had everything he could want in his "payday contract"...why hasn't he signed it yet? What is his hesitation?
    • Say what you want about the relationship, but this question is clearly a significant factor in all of this.
  • Playing in Barclays for one year, then at Nassau for 2, then *maybe* getting to play at Belmont Park in 2021 isn't a rosy picture.
  • What will NYI look like next year and the next 5 years?
    • Beyond Bellows, this prospect pool B-lows.
  • Goaltending: NYI has an issue to solve there. Greiss (who they don't trust) at $3.33M for 2 more years, but who will be their #1?
  • NYI is already within $2M of the cap, and they aren't shedding significant weight next year just to remain the same mediocre team they were this year.
    • Subtract $6.5M for Kumelin's and Chimera's contracts.
    • Add $5M for JT
    • Add $2M-$3M for Josh Bailey's new contract
    • Brock Nelson: $1.5M raise (based on Cizikas' and Clutterbuck's contracts)
    • Add $3M for Anders Lee the year after
    • How much more than they paid Halak ($4M) do they spend on a #1 goaltender?
    • Do any of these defensemen get a raise? De Haan, Hickey, Pulock (yes on Pulock)
The fact that NYI doesn't have a bright future has to weigh on him. This is his one shot to put himself in a competitive situation for the rest of his career. If someone says re-signing with NYI is a 75% certainty, I won't disagree, and I won't agree that it's 85% certain, but I wouldn't die on that hill, either. However, any language that is in the 90-percent area is definitely debatable.

They're waiting for the new cap to be announced before coming to an agreement. Obviously, everyone is supposed to say "the right things" like he has, but quotes like this seem to go take it beyond just that:

“The way I look at it, anything that affects my daily life, whether it’s at the rink or not at the rink, will go into my decision,” Tavares said. “Obviously, I want to play for a team that is doing everything to try to win, and the Islanders are certainly doing that. You can see a lot of the potential with a lot of the talent we have, and with the guys who have been there for awhile.
“We’ve got a solid foundation, and I’ve always stated that I enjoy being there and playing there. I haven’t really thought about anything else other than focussing on my season and taking my time. When the time is right, I’ll make my decision.”
 

geehaad

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Aug 24, 2006
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So if we go with geehaad's 75% chance that he'll sign in NYI, then go with this list and cut it in half and say Canes are 1 of 5 teams with a legit chance, then it means there's a 5% chance he'll sign here. :sarcasm:
I see your :sarcasm:, but at the point he hits free agency, NYI no longer commands 75% likelihood. I'd say it drops to less than 40%.

As to the other suitors, there has to be an opening in a team's roster, not just in terms of salary, but also in terms of slotting existing players. So the list you gave looks like this (add Phoenix):

Vegas
Colorado
Carolina
Buffalo (Eichel+ROR)
Vancouver (assuming they let Sedin go)
Columbus (Wennberg+Dubinsky+DuBois)
Calgary
NYI
Philly (Couturier+Giroux+Patrick)
Phoenix (Stepan+Keller???)
Rangers

That leaves this group:
Vegas
Colorado
Calgary ($2M in space, would have to let Stajan and Backlund walk)
Carolina
NYI
Phoenix
Rangers (no room, unless they let Nash walk)
Winnipeg ($6M in cap space with Ehlers getting a massive raise next year, then Laine the year after)
Vancouver (assuming they let the Sedins go)

So, that you have boiled it down 5 teams with the potential to land him is probably accurate, but again, all are not equal players in the sweepstakes. COL is attractive, and Vegas could be (depending on the polarizing reputation of that city), and VAN. CAL has issues similar to NYI's (plus living in a wasteland of a city), and Phoenix isn't particularly attractive option if you're looking for a competitive future.
 

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