The Road Trip - Make It or Break Time?

[Jaxs]

My previous comment was directed more to the second half of the original question. I agree with the above on how to build the winning environment. My problem is with, and always has been, the notion that you need to look at your prospective draft position.

To me they are separate and diametrically opposed positions. You cannot build a winning culture/attitude if your aim and purpose is to claim a high draft pick. Play the game, grow the attitude, and land where you land in the draft and make the best of the pick as it falls to you.

That is the age old question. Do teams tank to align themselves with a higher draft pick.

The simple answer is yes and no. A team can't come out and obviously tank (Pittsburgh Penguins cough cough). The only way to knowingly tank with no repercussions is to have a firesale at the deadline and bring the youngsters up after to finish the season. Others have already eluded to this.

A team trying to get rid of a losing culture like the CBJ can't have it both ways, especially months before the trade deadline. Ours is a situation where since the inception haven't been bad or lucky enough to win draft lotteries.

With an erosion of STHers over the years, the front office is leary of calling it a rebuild.

This is the year to unload at the deadline, get as many picks and good young prospects as possible, and audition youngsters from Springfield. Currently the call ups are coming due to injury. Barring an unlikely run from this team. It may be painful in the attendance column for another season or two, but the benefits will sure outweigh the bad that this organization has been since day 1.

 

[blahblah]

My previous comment was directed more to the second half of the original question. I agree with the above on how to build the winning environment. My problem is with, and always has been, the notion that you need to look at your prospective draft position.

To me they are separate and diametrically opposed positions. You cannot build a winning culture/attitude if your aim and purpose is to claim a high draft pick. Play the game, grow the attitude, and land where you land in the draft and make the best of the pick as it falls to you.

Actually I don't think it is. If your team is bad enough to be in contention for the #1 pick you remove the dead weight and let the younger guys lose their way to a top 3 pick. Now if you want years and years of Edmonton like suck to load up on top 3 picks, that isn't a great way to build a winning culture. You keep the dead weight and let your fan base suffer with the illusion you are trying to win. That is not to say that what Edmonton was doing, just saying they've kept players that aren't going to help them win.

Since Brassard does his best when the games have no meaning, that is the first person you want to dump. :p

That guy can single handedly screw you out of a top 5 pick... :p

 

[Nordique]

My previous comment was directed more to the second half of the original question. I agree with the above on how to build the winning environment. My problem is with, and always has been, the notion that you need to look at your prospective draft position.

To me they are separate and diametrically opposed positions. You cannot build a winning culture/attitude if your aim and purpose is to claim a high draft pick. Play the game, grow the attitude, and land where you land in the draft and make the best of the pick as it falls to you.

Its the old fashioned approach, and quite frankly I think its the only way to proceed when you are a bottom 8 team. I'm not saying spend up to the cap and try to scrap your way into the 8th spot (ala GMDM), but if upgrades are available for reasonable price tag's, then grab them, the whole while focusing on future growth.

 

[Ceff Jarter]

Obviously I don't know the answer to it and that's why I asked the question, but I tend to agree with Roadman. It will be interesting to see what GMJK does but I don't want to see a firesale. I think most of pieces are there.

 

[cbjgirl]

Has the team "turned the corner" in regards to this season, meaning have they finally put it together, improved the chemistry, etc. ?

or

Are we still in a two steps forward, one step back mode?

From my perspective, it is too soon to tell, but this long road trip will reveal the answer.



(I guess I just restated the original question more than anything.)

 

[blahblah]

Are we still in a two steps forward, one step back mode?

Some might say one step forward, two steps back.

I think we are getting better and will continue to get better. I don't know if that will translate into any consistency great enough to actually result in a point streak of any length. The West is just too good, especially our division.

 

[EspenK]

I just noticed this question. This is what I would do and, based on what I've seen, this might be similar to what the Jackets are going to do.

1. Analyze the players. Identify those that you want to keep and those that you want to move.
2. Do not add to the team if you aren't close to being a Cup contender. Giving up REAL assets (NHL level prospects and valuable picks) for a team that will get beat in the first round is a waste.
3. Move what you can at the trade deadline. When this occurs you will usually end up performing poorly down the stretch as a result, thus strengthening your draft position.



Having said this you can only do this in your honeymoon period. If you are dumping players you brought in you are probably going to lose credibility with the players you keep. If you sign a player (UFA or RFA, your own or another teams) to a 5 year deal and end up dumping him two years in because he's a problem in the locker room or doesn't fit into your play, you've got problems. Once the players lose confidence in what you are doing, you are done.

Cleaning out the trash isn't the hard part. It is what you replace the trash with.

I agree with blah's approach. And now the interesting question is who needs to go?

Obviously as has been discussed ad infinitum on other threads, there is a definite split among the posters as to who needs to go.
So lets leave Umberger & Brass out of the discussion for now.

Wiz, Johnson & Tuytin are guys who would bring the most at the deadline but aren't necessarily "trash". But considering our depth at D and the premise that we are rebuilding would you trade one of them for a #1 and something?

Bob/Mason might bring a 2nd and one could/should be disposable.

I'm not sure I'd trade one of the D's for a team that could go all the way making the pick 26-30 but maybe to a team that could go out quickly or even better not make the playoffs.

it's going to be interesting.

 

[Dr. Fire]

In a world where we are a play-off contender, then yes this would be a critical trip. But in the real world, where we just had a horrible record on a six game home-stand, then I doubt that this road trip is going to do anything to improve our standing.

As far as the trade deadline, I do not foresee a fire sale, but I do see an attempt to unload redundant pieces.

In terms of JMFJ, Wiz, and Toots, my preference would be either Toots or Wiz. I think JMFJ brings a lot more positives to the team than just a +/- stat.

 

[NotWendell]

Has the team "turned the corner" in regards to this season, meaning have they finally put it together, improved the chemistry, etc. ?

or

Are we still in a two steps forward, one step back mode?

From my perspective, it is too soon to tell, but this long road trip will reveal the answer.



(I guess I just restated the original question more than anything.)

I wouldn't say they've TURNED the corner, but at least they can SEE the corner. This road trip will reveal a lot. If they're not playing balls out because there's a new sheriff in town, there's something wrong.

(two minutes to me for excessive use of hyperbole!)

 

[db2011]

I've said that the majority of goals scored and games won by this team will be in the last 2/3 of the season, once they've actually, you know, played together a decent amount. We just passed the quarter mark, and they've strung together a couple of good games in a row (the Edmonton loss being one of them). Let me again take a moment to enjoy on how nice it is not to be waiting for the Nash line to get on the ice...

I doubt we're a playoff team, but stranger things have happened, and if the last two games actually are an indication of the team gelling in a real way, there's still 3/4 of a season to play. Which means I think this road trip is very important. If we pick up 6 points on this trip, then it won't have been broke.

 

[TaketheCannoli]

Make or break what?

The playoffs? I don't think so.

 

[blahblah]

As far as the trade deadline, I do not foresee a fire sale, but I do see an attempt to unload redundant pieces.

This is where I see we have a differing opinion. I see moving players that don't fit into what we are trying to build as a priority over moving redundant pieces. Moving redundant pieces is so far down the road with our current salary structure, that is unless we can trade it for someone that fits what we are trying to do and fills a hole. But that last part is obvious and, arguably, much harder to accomplish.

I don't see a situation in which we are desperate to create roster spots for our younger guys at this time.

I am not sure we are even that desperate to move a d-man at this point. Sure we have some options but none of the young guys have stood out enough to force the front offices hands.

Probably the first real move we'll want to consider is what to do with Aucoin. I'm not even sure Moore has played well enough to unseat either Golo or Erixon. I would like to see those three rotate around when Moore comes back.

The question really will be, are any of the top four on defense not playing the right? At least the right way from JK and JD's perspective? I would say that you have a couple of guys in that top four that probably make more mistakes than they should at their salary.

At this point I would say that Murray is going to need a hell of a camp to even be considered next season. If I was GM I would be going into next season thinking there is no rush and let him get his game back after the injury. Too many of our young players are playing at a NHL level to worry about it.

Not sure this has much to do with the road trip, other than this road trip will probably cement, one way or another, what we go into the deadline thinking. If you are 9 points down at the half way mark, you aren't even going to bother thinking anything other than selling. This time, hopefully with a real plan on what you want to move.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

Is the road trip critical to this season's playoff fortunes? Absolutely.

This isn't the typical season where a slow month and a half start can possibly be overcome. Unless the boys can get 8 points out of the trip, then their playoff possibilities would become bleak.

If the Jackets get the 8 points, then they'd have 18 points in 19 games. Given that it will probably take at least 52 points to get into the playoffs, the Jackets would then be required to get at least 34 points in 29 games-which is probably the maximum that one can reasonably expect of this team.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

As far as the trade deadline, I do not foresee a fire sale, but I do see an attempt to unload redundant pieces.

In terms of JMFJ, Wiz, and Toots, my preference would be either Toots or Wiz. I think JMFJ brings a lot more positives to the team than just a +/- stat.

If I were JK, I'd move Wiz in a heartbeat if I could find a taker. He's mediocre at best on defense and is primarily a power play specialist. At $5.5m/yr for 4 more years, he's an expensive luxury for a team that is rebuilding. He was a bad signing given the terms of his contract. But, a team which looks like they might make a run in the playoffs with a better power play might bite. I would think that the Jackets would have to assume the cost of some of his contract in any deal.

 

[ThisIsMyAlibi]

If I were JK, I'd move Wiz in a heartbeat if I could find a taker. He's mediocre at best on defense and is primarily a power play specialist. At $5.5m/yr for 4 more years, he's an expensive luxury for a team that is rebuilding.

++.
If Erixon or whoever proves to be a capable PPQB, it's a no brainer IMO.

 

[Viqsi]

Sigh. Wisniewski isn't around to be a PPQB; he's a triggerman. The QB is JMFJ.

 

[Roadman]

Don't know about make it or break it, I will assume that means the playoffs. I don't think we're going to get there with or without success on this trip.

This was never going to be a good team, not unless there was some MAJOR MOJO from the Hockey Gods. The first thing it was going to require was a good start and there were just too many things against that. New faces, young faces, new coaching staff, limited training camp, compressed schedule, and to that you add the early rash of injuries. It just wasn't going to be.

So unless there is there is a turnaround of biblical proportions the season boils down to what is essentially a 48 (now 35) game evaluation to determine who is a part of the problem and who is a part of the solution.

Some judgments have already been rendered, Howson out, JK in. Many more are yet to come. It promises to be a very interesting ride, so climb aboard.

Unfortunately it won't have much to do with the standings, finishing at .500 will be an accomplishment.

And remember I am an optimist, charter member of the sunshine club.

Go Jackets!!

 

[Dr. Fire]

This is where I see we have a differing opinion. I see moving players that don't fit into what we are trying to build as a priority over moving redundant pieces. Moving redundant pieces is so far down the road with our current salary structure, that is unless we can trade it for someone that fits what we are trying to do and fills a hole. But that last part is obvious and, arguably, much harder to accomplish.

I don't see a situation in which we are desperate to create roster spots for our younger guys at this time.

I am not sure we are even that desperate to move a d-man at this point. Sure we have some options but none of the young guys have stood out enough to force the front offices hands.

Probably the first real move we'll want to consider is what to do with Aucoin. I'm not even sure Moore has played well enough to unseat either Golo or Erixon. I would like to see those three rotate around when Moore comes back.

The question really will be, are any of the top four on defense not playing the right? At least the right way from JK and JD's perspective? I would say that you have a couple of guys in that top four that probably make more mistakes than they should at their salary.

At this point I would say that Murray is going to need a hell of a camp to even be considered next season. If I was GM I would be going into next season thinking there is no rush and let him get his game back after the injury. Too many of our young players are playing at a NHL level to worry about it.

Not sure this has much to do with the road trip, other than this road trip will probably cement, one way or another, what we go into the deadline thinking. If you are 9 points down at the half way mark, you aren't even going to bother thinking anything other than selling. This time, hopefully with a real plan on what you want to move.

Such a surprise!

j/k

We probably aren't really that far apart on what we believe needs to be done. I get the whole salary structure thing, and do realize that there is going to be an effort to unload some of that.

You really sort of concentrated in your post on the defense, where-as I was speaking more generally about the deadline.

My point was merely that we have a lot of guys that would be 3rd or 4th line guys that other teams might like for that play-off push. We can afford to part with a few of them to make room (hopefully) for a few more skilled guys. Whether anything else happens for any other reason is GK's job to workout.

Quite frankly, I haven't heard much about what JD's plans are for the future, as to what type of team he wants to build here. Mostly what I hear is just about what he feels the group of guys we have now must do to win hockey games. I would think that we will see something similar to what he did in St. Louis, but he hasn't tipped his hand on that yet.

 

[EspenK]

Sigh. Wisniewski isn't around to be a PPQB; he's a triggerman. The QB is JMFJ.

They say PPQB, you say triggerman. I say at 5.5 mill, either way that's a lot and if he can be traded for some offense adios MFJW.

 

[Viqsi]

They say PPQB, you say triggerman. I say at 5.5 mill, either way that's a lot and if he can be traded for some offense adios MFJW.

The only other guy we have who's able to get decent-quality point shots off regularly is Nikitin. JMFJ tries as well, but he telegraphs his shots pretty badly. That's not something to give up trivially.

And I seem to recall that team-building - i.e. finding guys who can work together well - was something Howson was frequently deficient at and thus one of our biggest problems. JMFJ-Wiz is, like, the hot new hockey bromance going. And they're effective. I'd be hesitant to break that up.

 

[Dr. Fire]

The only other guy we have who's able to get decent-quality point shots off regularly is Nikitin. JMFJ tries as well, but he telegraphs his shots pretty badly. That's not something to give up trivially.

And I seem to recall that team-building - i.e. finding guys who can work together well - was something Howson was frequently deficient at and thus one of our biggest problems. JMFJ-Wiz is, like, the hot new hockey bromance going. And they're effective. I'd be hesitant to break that up.

I would say that the biggest problem hasn't been the shots that JMFJ, or MFJW take, but rather three other things.

1. Our PP can be to predictable. The defenses of the other teams have learned to defend against these point shots.
2. The PP units are not putting enough screens in front of the goaltenders.
3. Our PP units are not moving the puck around fast enough to get defenders out of position to not block the shots, nor keep the goaltender out of position to have a lot of open net to shoot at.

Simplistic, but I think relevant to this discussion. Having said that I am not opposed to trading MFJW, or Toots, or Nikitin for assets that we need in the worst way, and dump salary at the same time.

 

[Viqsi]

I would say that the biggest problem hasn't been the shots that JMFJ, or MFJW take, but rather three other things.

1. Our PP can be to predictable. The defenses of the other teams have learned to defend against these point shots.
2. The PP units are not putting enough screens in front of the goaltenders.
3. Our PP units are not moving the puck around fast enough to get defenders out of position to not block the shots, nor keep the goaltender out of position to have a lot of open net to shoot at.

Simplistic, but I think relevant to this discussion. Having said that I am not opposed to trading MFJW, or Toots, or Nikitin for assets that we need in the worst way, and dump salary at the same time.

Honestly, I think most of those can be traced back to the fact that our skill at forward is severely lacking. And that's why we have four early draft picks.

Put it this way: just because we're not effective with all our actual skill being on the blueline (shocking! ) DOESN'T mean that those folks on the blueline are somehow inadequate once we have skill elsewhere.

 

[JACKETfan]

"Break"

 

[Dr. Fire]

Honestly, I think most of those can be traced back to the fact that our skill at forward is severely lacking. And that's why we have four early draft picks.

Put it this way: just because we're not effective with all our actual skill being on the blueline (shocking! ) DOESN'T mean that those folks on the blueline are somehow inadequate once we have skill elsewhere.

I should have said 4 things.