Prospect Info: The Prospect Thread (Part XXX)

[iceburg]

Yup. Of the Canucks with >5GP last season, Gaunce has a team low 932 PDO including a on-ice (team) shooting percentage of 1.85 (these numbers are from behindthenet.ca). That's pretty much the definition of bad puck luck. He also posted the third best Corsi Rel (again among players with >5GP), behind only the twins, while having the 2nd worst Corsi Rel QoT (quality of teammates) on the team. Gaunce appears to have been doing a lot right based on those numbers (which fits with what I was seeing on the ice during his games).

Isn't the whole point of advanced stats to try to understand the deeper complexities involved in goals for and against? In other words, to eliminate the argument that he was just unlucky.

 

[M2Beezy]

Yup. Of the Canucks with >5GP last season, Gaunce has a team low 932 PDO including a on-ice (team) shooting percentage of 1.85 (these numbers are from behindthenet.ca). That's pretty much the definition of bad puck luck. He also posted the third best Corsi Rel (again among players with >5GP), behind only the twins, while having the 2nd worst Corsi Rel QoT (quality of teammates) on the team. Gaunce appears to have been doing a lot right based on those numbers (which fits with what I was seeing on the ice during his games).

Makes sense. I liked Gaunces game. I think he can be a better Sutter by 2017-18 if he gets his deserved 70+ games this year

 

[M2Beezy]

Man I cannot disagree with you more, as usual.

Im sure a lot of the Benning fanboys disagree as well, as usual

 

[WhiteCurse]

Im sure a lot of the Benning fanboys disagree as well, as usual

I tend to see the Benning haters disagree with you just as much.

 

[Bad Goalie]

Im sure a lot of the Benning fanboys disagree as well, as usual

I'm the last guy you want to label a Benning fanboy.

Your description sounds exactly like Benning talking.

Carcone came into the tourney already signed to an ELC. He stood out with his hustle, but that won't earn him a spot on the roster at the expense of any of the guys already there, especially the toys Benning is banking on for Aquaman's attendance. Jake is a 20 yr-old 1st round pick starting his second pro season, fan favorite, and is expected by Benning to really make an impact this season.

Carcone is an undrafted, overage, Jr. free agent that Benning scooped up for the Comets/Alsaska. If his flash with the other kids shows any real promise among the men, he'll be in Utica's camp with a chance to be in the AHL and the rest will be up to him.

If you think anything better than that can happen, you live in a parallel universe to reality.

 

[rune74]

Makes sense. I liked Gaunces game. I think he can be a better Sutter by 2017-18 if he gets his deserved 70+ games this year

I would be entirely shocked by this if it ever happened...I would be ecstatic if he even got to the level of Sutter. I'm curious how bad you think Sutter is?

Actually I'm not.

 

[rune74]

Im sure a lot of the Benning fanboys disagree as well, as usual

Heh, nope, just those with an ounce of hockey knowledge.

 

[VanJack]

Well, Bob Mackenzie's pre-season draft rankings are in, and doesn't appear to be much point in 'tanking' this year....unless Patrick were to land in their lap as the first overall pick, the rest of the top-10 looking pretty pedestrian....of course in every draft there's a few guys who take a big leap forward in their draft years, but from all reports there's no Matthews, Laine, Eichel or McDavid out there this year.

 

[Serac]

I mean, I don't know
Past Patrick is Comtois

And the top D in this draft class look promising to start the year
Liljegren would be amazing to have
Foote doesn't look bad, and Hague is huge

 

[Callhee]

Carcone works hard. He hussles. And he can shoot the puck real well. Virtanen can eat i will give him that

Do you remember Sacha Guimond? One good prospect tourney does not make a good prospect. Carcone will be lucky to ever even make the NHL.

 

[M2Beezy]

I'm the last guy you want to label a Benning fanboy.

Your description sounds exactly like Benning talking.

Carcone came into the tourney already signed to an ELC. He stood out with his hustle, but that won't earn him a spot on the roster at the expense of any of the guys already there, especially the toys Benning is banking on for Aquaman's attendance. Jake is a 20 yr-old 1st round pick starting his second pro season, fan favorite, and is expected by Benning to really make an impact this season.

Carcone is an undrafted, overage, Jr. free agent that Benning scooped up for the Comets/Alsaska. If his flash with the other kids shows any real promise among the men, he'll be in Utica's camp with a chance to be in the AHL and the rest will be up to him.

If you think anything better than that can happen, you live in a parallel universe to reality.

Yeah. Your probs right. Thats a pretty clear defeat of what i said i gotta say your right. Jake is a toy of the management theres NO WAY he does not make the team. And as someone else mentioned below your post that Carcone just had a good prospects tourney and maybe that wont translate. Hope he does well and makes Utica and becomes a fave. I dream of more but probs is just that i guess a dream. O well thanks tho

 

[M2Beezy]

Heh, nope, just those with an ounce of hockey knowledge.

Yeah i got it thanks. I know nothing sure why not. For what its worth I hope your right and Im wrong about Virtanen. And i will be the first to admit it

 

[Billy Kvcmu]

Man I cannot disagree with you more, as usual.

Let him have his time....

 

[Billy Kvcmu]

I would be entirely shocked by this if it ever happened...I would be ecstatic if he even got to the level of Sutter. I'm curious how bad you think Sutter is?

Actually I'm not.

*Check Sutter's stats last season
*Think he sucks

 

[Billy Kvcmu]

Yeah i got it thanks. I know nothing sure why not. For what its worth I hope your right and Im wrong about Virtanen. And i will be the first to admit it

Just like the other one hundred times you were wrong...

 

[RobertKron]

Isn't the whole point of advanced stats to try to understand the deeper complexities involved in goals for and against? In other words, to eliminate the argument that he was just unlucky.

Unless you believe that guys don't go through stretches where they're playing properly, but aren't putting up points, I don't understand how that could possibly be the purpose of advanced stats.

 

[iceburg]

Unless you believe that guys don't go through stretches where they're playing properly, but aren't putting up points, I don't understand how that could possibly be the purpose of advanced stats.

Sure there are other factors that go in to players going through cold stretches - confidence (or lack of) probably being one of the biggest factors.
I just found it a little amusing that the poster was arguing that advanced stats showed he was unlucky...seems to be an inherent contradiction to me.

 

[RobertKron]

Sure there are other factors that go in to players going through cold stretches - confidence (or lack of) probably being one of the biggest factors.
I just found it a little amusing that the poster was arguing that advanced stats showed he was unlucky...seems to be an inherent contradiction to me.

How so?

 

[Tables of Stats]

Sure there are other factors that go in to players going through cold stretches - confidence (or lack of) probably being one of the biggest factors.

I just found it a little amusing that the poster was arguing that advanced stats showed he was unlucky...seems to be an inherent contradiction to me.

Being cold while doing everything right thing can have a lot of factors besides the player himself, which is basically what PDO measures. Having a terrible PDO while having great possession stats could mean that your linemates aren't finishing, you're facing hot goalies or any other number of things which we currently don't have a great way to measure. None of which boils down to luck or unluck.

 

[ChilliBilly]

Just like the other one hundred times you were wrong...

you know there is an ignore button ....

 

[WhiteCurse]

you know there is an ignore button ....

It is hard to look away from a train wreck

 

[iceburg]

Being cold while doing everything right thing can have a lot of factors besides the player himself, which is basically what PDO measures. Having a terrible PDO while having great possession stats could mean that your linemates aren't finishing, you're facing hot goalies or any other number of things which we currently don't have a great way to measure. None of which boils down to luck or unluck.

Yes. It wasn't about luck...

 

[RobertKron]

Yes. It wasn't about luck...

In hockey, "luck" usually boils down to the opposition making an unusually good play. Sometimes you do everything right, and you don't get the result. Sometimes that happens an unusual number of times in a row. That's kind of what Gaunce looks like last year.

 

[604]

Sure there are other factors that go in to players going through cold stretches - confidence (or lack of) probably being one of the biggest factors.
I just found it a little amusing that the poster was arguing that advanced stats showed he was unlucky...seems to be an inherent contradiction to me.

Really what the advanced stats indicate is that Gaunce is a good hockey player, much better than his traditional stats suggest.

The luck explanation is just one way to justify why his advanced stats are better than his traditional stats.

 

[iceburg]

In hockey, "luck" usually boils down to the opposition making an unusually good play. Sometimes you do everything right, and you don't get the result. Sometimes that happens an unusual number of times in a row. That's kind of what Gaunce looks like last year.

Sure, there's no doubt that individual hockey success has a lot to do with things that are out of the individual's control - who they're playing with, playing against, how they're deployed etc. And yes, depending on these factors, you could do everything right and still not get the results.
I still say, all else considered, 1 pt in 20 games is an extremely weak number, even if all the circumstances out of his control were against him.
That said, I hope he can show in the preseason that he belongs. He, maybe more than any other player, has a chance to show he belongs but he needs to do something special to earn it.