The Premature 2020 Expansion Thread

[Mcnotloilersfan]

The Early Seattle Expansion Discussion.

With Seattle one vote away from a 2020 expansion, its never too early to start discussing Edmonton's position. Edmonton went into the previous expansion draft in one of the best situations. This time around, there are going to be some very difficult decisions. Assuming the same expansion rules are in place, here’s what we should consider.

Who Is Exempt:
Bouchard
Yamamoto
McLeod
Benson
2019+2020 picks (very important to hang on to).

Troublesome Contracts: Chiarelli has no choice here. For the sake of the team, he needs to find a way to move both of the dmen here. Any of these players that are not moved, will be forced onto our protection list.

Lucic
Sekera
Russell

Interesting to note that if this gets pushed back to 2021, we gain having Sekera and Russell off the books, while potentially having to expose Bouchard and Yama if they play Pro past the 9 game mark this season.
Assuming the worst, that Chiarelli can’t move any of those contracts, here is what a couple different scenarios look like. All of these have Talbot in place for now as the #1G, assuming a new contract is signed.

Protect 7F, 3D, 1G

Protected:
McDavid
Draisaitl
Lucic
RNH
Puljujarvi
Khaira
Strome
Russell
Sekera
Larsson
Talbot

Key Players Exposed: Nurse, Klefbom, Bear

Protect 8 Skaters, 1 G

McDavid
Draisaitl
Lucic
Russell
Sekera
Nurse
Klefbom
Larsson

Key Players Exposed: RNH, Puljujarvi, Khaira, Strome, Bear

Sekera and Russel are going to be incredibly difficult to trade. Any team who makes a deal for them is going to have to put them on their protected rosters. Edmonton might be forced into a situation of trading a 1st round pick to Seattle, to not poach one of our key assets. Maybe as part of the deal, they will take one of those contracts as well.

Thoughts?

Click to read more...

 

[Trafalgar Sadge Law]

Just pull a Chicago and have Sekera develop a "career threatening rash", then have Kris Russell busted for weed or something. Boom. Problem solved.

 

[stratedge]

The bad players taking up valuable spots on that list just go to show you, you can't fully appreciate how stupid Chia's contracts are up front. They get stupider and stupider with time.

 

[Hopelesslucicfan]

Yeah, I was kind of worried about this potential draft. Were basically guaranteed to lose a very good (by our standards) forward, and one of our few top 4 dmen.

 

[voxel]

A premature ejaculation thread. We can always ask Lucic, Sekera, Russell to waive their NTC/NMC clauses. Doubt Seattle will take them. We'll just lose Khaira or something like that... unless we suddenly become a powerhouse.

 

[Spawn]

According to capfriendly, Sekera's NMC becomes a limited NTC after this season. He shouldn't be a concern for a 2020 expansion.

Russell would have one year left at 4M and while he still would have a NMC, he needs to provide a list of 15 teams he'd be willing to accept a trade to. I think either a buyout or a trade would occur before the Oilers would protect him.

Lucic is the most difficult to deal with. Realistically he's going to be protected. There's an outside chance that we could get him to waive it for the expansion as Seattle might be a pretty attractive place for him to play out the rest of his career. Really close to home and family, but not right in the spotlight of Vancouver. And I don't imagine things are going to get better for him in Edmonton unfortunately. He might relish the chance to leave. But that could also just be wishful thinking.

 

[ThreeOfAPerfectPair]

Who Is Exempt:
Bouchard
Yamamoto
McLeod
Benson
2019+2020 picks (very important to hang on to).

EDIT: Disregard this post. Players going into their 3rd season are exempt.


* All first- and second-year professionals, as well as all unsigned draft choices, will be exempt from selection (and will not be counted toward their club's applicable protection limits).

2018-19
2019-20
Expansion Year

Yams and Bouchard will be available if they play this season.

 

[voxel]

* All first- and second-year professionals, as well as all unsigned draft choices, will be exempt from selection (and will not be counted toward their club's applicable protection limits).

2018-19
2019-20
Expansion Year

Yams and Bouchard will be available if they play this season.

If Bouchard plays 10 games this season

Clarification On Definition Of First And Second Year Professionals - SinBin.vegas

 

[ThreeOfAPerfectPair]

If Bouchard plays 10 games this season

Clarification On Definition Of First And Second Year Professionals - SinBin.vegas

Yup. Probably best case for the club long term and Bouchard's development for him to be sent down after 9 games.

 

[Mr Positive]

we will get multiple players to waive their NMCs. I thought that wouldn't happen to exposed teams last expansion, but lots of players waived when it was a sure thing that they wouldn't be picked. No one's picking an injured Sekera. With Lucic it depends on his play, but no one would pick him if he's bad, and if he's a short contract anyway.

Mostly though, I'm not worried. We might have to make a side deal with Seattle, which sucks, but it's better than exposing someone like Nurse, Bear, or even a key role player like Strome. People thought that Vegas would be snagging guys like Vatanen, but that turned out to be BS. We also will not give up major pieces, but might have to give a good pick or prospect to buy our way out of it. Just pay the toll and move on.

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

* All first- and second-year professionals, as well as all unsigned draft choices, will be exempt from selection (and will not be counted toward their club's applicable protection limits).

2018-19
2019-20
Expansion Year

Yams and Bouchard will be available if they play this season.

If Bouchard plays 10 games this season

Clarification On Definition Of First And Second Year Professionals - SinBin.vegas

Players going into their 3rd season are exempt.

Connor and Nurse played 2 seasons and were exempt. Draisaitl played 2 full seasons, plus his 39 game stint the season before, so he was not exempt. Had he only played 9 games or fewer that season, he would have also been exempt.

Bouchard and Yama can play all of this year and next season. They will be exempt if the draft happens in 2020

 

[ThreeOfAPerfectPair]

Players going into their 3rd season are exempt.

TIL. Glad I'm wrong on that one.

 

[Skolman]

It would be amazing if Lucic would waive.

Give them a 2nd round pick + decent prospect to take Lucic.

 

[nexttothemoon]

Sekera will be 90 years old with no legs by the time that expansion draft rolls around... he'll be about as appealing to Seattle as watching Roseanne and Rosie O'Donnell doing a 2 girls 1 cup sequel.

Of course he'll waive any NMC.

 

[ThreeOfAPerfectPair]

Pretty sure Mrs. Lucic would prefer Seattle over Edmonton.

When is the lockout/compliance buy-out year supposed to happen? 2020-21? Seattle probably wants to enter the league after that's settled...

 

[Jepprey]

Although it's not working yet, but they did tease the updated tool for the Seattle expansion.

Seattle Expansion Draft - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

 

[Mr Sakich]

One glimmer of hope is that there is a good possibility that the threat of a lockout season may pushed the expansion to 21. We lose russel and Sekera nmc.

We can also hope for a buyout opportunity in the new cba like we had the last time. This would take care of lucic

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

If Lucic, Sekera, and Russell waive their NMC we will be fine.

I suspect they will, since there is next to no chance they will be picked, and they wouldn't want the team losing a valuable player.

 

[Fourier]

* All first- and second-year professionals, as well as all unsigned draft choices, will be exempt from selection (and will not be counted toward their club's applicable protection limits).

2018-19
2019-20
Expansion Year

Yams and Bouchard will be available if they play this season.

Both Yamamoto and Bouchard would still be exempt just as McDavid was in the last expansion draft.

The Oilers are actually in pretty decent shape for this draft. They can go 7-3

Forwards
McDavid
Draisiatl
Nuge
Puljujarvi
Lucic
Khaira
Strome/Rattie?

Defense
Larsson
Klefbom
Nurse

Buyout or trade Russell if he does not waive.

My guess is that Lucic would waive if asked to do so. Seattle is very close to home and the success that Vegas had will likely take some of the concern about going to an expansion team off the table. I also doubt Seattle would take his contract.

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

Both Yamamoto and Bouchard would still be exempt just as McDavid was in the last expansion draft.

The Oilers are actually in pretty decent shape for this draft. They can go 7-3

Forwards
McDavid
Draisiatl
Nuge
Puljujarvi
Lucic
Khaira
Strome/Rattie?

Defense
Larsson
Klefbom
Nurse

Buyout or trade Russell if he does not waive.

My guess is that Lucic would waive if asked to do so. Seattle is very close to home and the success that Vegas had will likely take some of the concern about going to an expansion team off the table. I also doubt Seattle would take his contract.

There is still Sekera to deal with.

 

[Fourier]

There is still Sekera to deal with.

He can be exposed. His NMC changes to a NTC so its not an issue.

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

He can be exposed. His NMC changes to a NTC so its not an issue.

I thought he and Russell have a NMC with a modified trade request list at the end of their deals which would still require protection?

 

[Fourier]

I thought he and Russell have a NMC with a modified trade request list at the end of their deals which would still require protection?

Russell does but not Sekera.

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

Russell does but not Sekera.

Thanks, this makes me feel much better. I could honestly see Russell being fine with waiving his NMC in that case. Very likely that we would lose someone like Bear or Khaira in that situation anyway and he would recognize that.

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

Pretty sure Mrs. Lucic would prefer Seattle over Edmonton.

When is the lockout/compliance buy-out year supposed to happen? 2020-21? Seattle probably wants to enter the league after that's settled...

If I'm Seattle, I want to enter the league before Compliance buyouts happen. Teams will be able to protect more talented players if they can do compliance buyouts. Imagine if we could buyout Lucic and Russell. We'd barely feel the expansion draft hit us.