Prospect Info: The Premature 2020 Draft Thread

Discussion in 'Edmonton Oilers' started by Soli, Jun 23, 2020.

?

Would you rather...

  1. Beat Chicago

  2. Have a 12.5% shot at Lafreniere

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  1. CycloneSweep Registered User

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    If I was Ottawa GM I would take 21 and add, 33, 46 to move up and snag Askarov.
    Stutzle, Drysdale, Askarov
     
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  2. Joey Moss 5-14-6-1

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    I feel guilty for saying it but I'd actually prefer the 12.5% chance of Laf, especially in a season like this. I don't have confidence in our goaltending for a deep run after this long break. Laf on an ELC for 3 years with our group would be massive. You could even look at trade options.

    Of course, we could also lose both the 1st round and lottery which would suck but 12.5% is pretty decent odds.
     
  3. LTIR Registered User

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    Losing would also get us into top 15 making Quinn or Jarvis legit bets.
     
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  4. CycloneSweep Registered User

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    Most years hell ya, playoffs. But this year I see zero chances of us winning more than the play ins. Smith needs months to get going and Koskinen is a bit of a slow starter too. Also our 5v5 play from the season was terrible and I don't think our special teams will be as good in the playoffs either. I'd rather the high chance at Laf than winning a round and getting shit on
     
  5. FlameChampion Registered User

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    I can see scenerios where we can take a deep run. But I agree, I dont have a ton of confidence in our goaltending. That being said, "elite" goaltenders dont really seem to fare that well in playoffs when you think about it (at least in the last 10 years). We should beat Chicago relatively easy. I think we could take Dallas. I think we have a chance against Colorado/St. Louis/Vegas but I would say our odds are less than 50% (like 30-40%).

    That being said I still think playing playoff rounds is better for this team. We need to start putting solid seasons together, to back people away from the ledges. Losing in the buy in round, would be pretty bad.
     
  6. doulos Registered User

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    I'll take 1 round instead of a shot at a high pick. This is going to be the strangest year of playoffs ever (on the slim chance it happens) and I really think anyone could win.
     
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  7. CycloneSweep Registered User

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    Losing the buy in round, statistically is most likely.

    We have lost 2/3 games against them this season. They drove the play in all 3 games. They outshot us all 3 games. Our one win our powerplay got hot that game. Chicago also got better after the trade deadline arguably. All signs point to a loss to them

    I few playoff rounds would be good normally to get that experience. These games won't be playoff quality, energy or intensity so it's not really playoff experience.
     
  8. Mr Positive Cap Crunch Incoming

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    I get that everyone voting in this poll wants us to win, not tank, and that is just strategic thinking, but I disagree with it.

    For one, it's just not right. Our team should be finishing the rebuild, and that top pick should go to a team that needs him, and can afford his 2nd contract.

    If we're talking about going for the cup during Laf's ELC and selling him right after, it's just crappy. The right thing is for us is to find a winger for McDavid. Someone who will stay here a long time and not break the bank.

    Although, if that goalie slides to where we draft, we should take him. Everyone talks about getting a forward, but teams do draft goalies sometimes. It's okay, and we should be the #1 team looking for goalie upgrades. Koskinen is okay, but we shouldn't bank the rebuild on him.
     
  9. LTIR Registered User

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    And why couldn't we keep Laff past ELC?
    What franchise winger do we have? What forward other than McDrai do we have that will make him tradeable?

    Laff would be part of the core if drafted. Easily our #3 player or maybe #2 if Drai cools down
     
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  10. Llamamoto49 Irrelevant

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    ???
     
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  11. Mr Positive Cap Crunch Incoming

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    you can't have a franchise player in every spot. A team with enough cap for depth should only have a couple.

    I also get that this is out of our control. We might get knocked out by Chicago. We might win the first pick. But even then, I'd still wonder if the best move isn't to throw out our current rebuild model to go to a Drai-Laf-McD Core, but instead to trade that pick to spread the value throughout the lineup better. You just cannot have a superteam anymore. If you try, I doubt it ends well
     
  12. CycloneSweep Registered User

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    Or instead of trading him for that winger we need, use him as that winger we need, use the money we would spend on a winger fixing other parts of the lineup and if he becomes franchise level at the end of his ELC we can trade him for an absolute killing. Or if he doesn't become franchise level and just good we will be able to afford to sign him and still have a good winger.
     
  13. Mr Positive Cap Crunch Incoming

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    I don't think we should treat this like a video game though. We should establish our core as soon as we can, and not have this new three headed core that we need to rip apart in three years. The goal shouldn't just be to increase player value
     
  14. CycloneSweep Registered User

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    The issue is we are already tight at the cap. Finding that winger for McDavid will cost us 6-9 mill which will prevent us from making other improvements. When you have the money we have in two players, that is our core. Keeping Lafreniere wouldn't be to increase player value. It's adding a very good young player that's dirt cheap for 3 years, freeing up cap for those years to improve other roster deficiencies. It would open our door immediately. We also don't know what will happen in 3 years either cap could somehow go up, we could find room for him, he may take a smaller contract for a short time to stay here who knows.

    If we have the ability to draft Lafreniere you do it, you don't look back and you keep him for as long as you can. It would immediately solidify our top 6, improve our bottom 6 and cost us 1mill a year. There is zero negatives there.
     
  15. Mr Positive Cap Crunch Incoming

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    It would more like 4 million with bonuses. But, drafting a lesser winger would potentially give a great winger still, who we could re-sign for many years. And build that up instead of having to make a massive change in 3 years.
     
  16. CycloneSweep Registered User

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    Yes but the issue with drafting a lesser winger is they are much much less likely to be good. And they may take a few more years. You are talking about getting going right away. I mean id be down to trade down to 3 and take Ottawa's 3rd and 21st or something and draft Stutzle. But other than that I'd welcome him and deal with any cap issues later.

    That said I'm also fine with drafting later if that's what happens.
     
  17. Canovin 1% is the new 11.5%

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    You're afraid to giving Lafreniere 4M the first 3 years? If he hit those bonuses, you know what that means, right? He's probably getting 100 points each of those seasons. A team with 3 x 100+ points players is most likely a contender.

    We can worry about paying him 11M avv later
     
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  18. CycloneSweep Registered User

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    But why do that when we can draft a lesser winger who might be good and we might not have to trade in 3 years?
     
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  19. Canovin 1% is the new 11.5%

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    I generally enjoy reading posts from him but this is the weirdest post I've seen from him lol
     
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  20. LTIR Registered User

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    Yup, TB should have traded away Kucherov because of the already 2 headed core of Stamkos and Hedman. CHI had plenty of elite talent along with Toews,Kane,Keith, Seabrook, Byfuglien

    What exactly is the Core for Oilers? We don't even have a clear #1 Dman and 1 top 6 winger. There is plenty of room to establish a core.
     
  21. Mr Positive Cap Crunch Incoming

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    That's a totally different situation. They had their 1D already in Hedman, and Stamkos was aging. Plus, space aside for their franchise goalie.

    We don't have a sure fire starter, and we don't have the 1D yet. We need to set aside cap space either for that player, or to keep the D depth we have to compensate. And we need to at least be able to keep a great goalie if we can find one.

    The strategy for our top six offense should be to replicate the success of our 2nd line onto our 1st line. We don't need Lafreniere with McDavid. We just need wingers in the tier of Yamamoto or RNH. That's the Pittsburgh model, and it allows you to have spending in key spots all over the team.

    Most people who suggest keeping Lafreniere are saying we gun for the cup for his ELC and then just sell him off. That's not building a team like Tampa did. It's just chaos
     
  22. Hynh Registered User

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    Kucherov is 3 years younger than Stamkos, Lafreniere is 6 years younger than Draisaitl.
     
  23. Mr Positive Cap Crunch Incoming

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    So? Stamkos is 30. He's exiting his prime, which is more important than the gap between Drai and Lefreniere.

    The most important factor though was that we haven't built our team like Tampa did. We can't put all that spending in the top six and win the cup. Not without crazy luck in the D and in net.
     
  24. Hynh Registered User

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    You said Kucherov was kept around to compensate for an aging Stamkos but Draisaitl will be turning 28 when Lafreniere's ELC expires.

    Tampa hasn't won a goddamn thing so who cares about how they build their team? People used to jerk off to San Jose and look where they got. You don't need a sexy defence corps if you have enough firepower. Pittsburgh won two cups in a row with a group effort and both teams they beat had much bigger brand names on D
     
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  25. Mr Positive Cap Crunch Incoming

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    idk, maybe you're right on that but I still think at least going for that 1D, especially considering that if we won the lottery it would just be such a crazy gift from the gods that we really do not need at all. Because, honestly on our team how it is growing we could get elite numbers from a winger we draft late in the first round.

    And ultimately the funny thing about all this is that the odds we get that pick are so very low. It's a 1/8 shot in that lottery but honestly I think the odds are even lower that Chicago beats us.
     

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