Prospect Info: The Adolescent 2019 Draft Thread

[Mcnotloilersfan]

Unreal goal by Tomasino for Niagara tonight . Anywhere after 10, he should be our pick. Hands down.

 

[MessierII]

Unreal goal by Tomasino for Niagara tonight . Anywhere after 10, he should be our pick. Hands down.

I’ve only seen him play once but he caught my eye as well. Seemed like a good mix of talent and work ethic. At least that’s what I picked up in my one viewing. I haven’t seen enough to form a good opinion.

 

[McDNicks17]

Brock's Midseason Top 50 came out the other day.

OHL Prospects: Midseason Top 50 for the 2019 NHL Entry Draft

He's a fan of Tomasino too:

3. Philip Tomasino - Forward - Niagara IceDogs
Aggressive ranking jump for Tomasino following a strong last couple of months. I had him pretty high coming into the season, so it's no surprise to see how well he has performed following a promotion to Niagara's top line. Since the beginning of November, Tomasino has 34 points (17 goals, 17 assists) in 23 games. That's some of the best production of any draft eligible player in the CHL during that time period. And sure, it's great to play with two players as talented as Jason Robertson and Akil Thomas. But if you watch him play, Tomasino isn't just along for the ride, he's driving the play with those two. His speed and play with the puck is electric. His pace of attack consistently opens ups scoring lanes for Robertson and Thomas. But he's also not afraid to attack the middle of the ice or the crease. He's excelled by crashing the net as part of that trio, and just seems to have an infectious energy level. It's uncertain as to whether NHL scouts will view him as a winger or as a center (he has played both), but this is one talented young player. I can honestly say that I heavily debated putting Tomasino at #1 on this list. Playing for a Niagara team that could be loading up, he is going to get his time to shine and should sky rocket up draft lists in the second half if he keeps up this rate of production.

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

For Tomasino's goal last night, start the video at a minute in. Doesn't show his speed build up well, but the kid is just getting quicker, stronger and better every game. The potential is just starting to show, and I'm a big believer in taking his type of player in the draft. Right shot, fast, great shot, good size, strong on the puck.

I've seen both MacT and Howson there scouting already this season. I don't know the look of many of our other scouts to recognize them though.

Jan. 11/19 – KGN (3) – NIAG (6) – Ontario Hockey League

 

[lakai17]

Bowen Byram boys. Bowen Byram. Just topped off a 5 point night.

 

[Soundwave]

Apparently someone named Connor McMichael is one of the top prospects in the draft.

We totally have to draft him, lol.

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

Tomasino, McMichael, Newhook, and Krebs are all forwards I like right now in our range.

 

[Soundwave]

I think Gene's head will explode if they somehow draft Connor McMichael. The amount of puns going through his head will be too much.

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

Tomasino, McMichael, Newhook, and Krebs are all forwards I like right now in our range.

McMichael and Tomasino are the guys that I think will still be available though when we pick. I still think we're making the playoffs.

 

[Stud Muffin]

Bowen Byram boys. Bowen Byram. Just topped off a 5 point night.

Easily the best D in the draft, likely be going around 6-8 after the first group of forwards are gone.

 

[poolparty98]

Are we officially in the Lose for Hughes conversation?

 

[Paralyzer008]

My current mock draft based on current standings:

1. Philadelphia - F Jack Hughes
2. LA - F Kaapo Kakko
3. Colorado (via Ottawa) - F Kirby Dach
4. Detroit - F Dylan Cozens
5. Chicago - D Bowen Byram
6. NJ - F Matthew Boldy
7. Florida - D Philip Broberg
8. STL - F Ryan Suzuki
9. NYR - F Vasili Podkolzin
10. ARI - F Trevor Zegras
11. EDM - ?

Thing is, at their current pick, I'd be shocked if they didn't take Matthew Robertson due to his Oil Kings status - and it's not an awful pick either. He's good. But, it's almost predictable.

 

[Zaddy]

My current mock draft based on current standings:

1. Philadelphia - F Jack Hughes
2. LA - F Kaapo Kakko
3. Colorado (via Ottawa) - F Kirby Dach
4. Detroit - F Dylan Cozens
5. Chicago - D Bowen Byram
6. NJ - F Matthew Boldy
7. Florida - D Philip Broberg
8. STL - F Ryan Suzuki
9. NYR - F Vasili Podkolzin
10. ARI - F Trevor Zegras
11. EDM - ?

Thing is, at their current pick, I'd be shocked if they didn't take Matthew Robertson due to his Oil Kings status - and it's not an awful pick either. He's good. But, it's almost predictable.

I don't know about that. I think Peyton Krebs would be an Oilers type pick. Left winger (huge need), Alberta kid, plays in the WHL, good pedigree. Captain and basically the one-man-army for his team. It's like Benson 2.0 without the injuries

I'm not too familiar with Krebs yet but just looking at highlights it looks like he has a wicked wrister. Seems to be a smart player with good hands and a good passer too. I'm on board.

Him or Newhook would be good picks for the Oilers.

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

My current mock draft based on current standings:

1. Philadelphia - F Jack Hughes
2. LA - F Kaapo Kakko
3. Colorado (via Ottawa) - F Kirby Dach
4. Detroit - F Dylan Cozens
5. Chicago - D Bowen Byram
6. NJ - F Matthew Boldy
7. Florida - D Philip Broberg
8. STL - F Ryan Suzuki
9. NYR - F Vasili Podkolzin
10. ARI - F Trevor Zegras
11. EDM - ?

Thing is, at their current pick, I'd be shocked if they didn't take Matthew Robertson due to his Oil Kings status - and it's not an awful pick either. He's good. But, it's almost predictable.

Krebs would be the pick there. Winger and an Alberta boy. I'm familiar with Krebs and wouldn't mind that.

Edit: @Zaddy beat me to it.

 

[Aerrol]

Yeah, those guys are the ones I'm keeping my eye on outside the top5. Feel like both could be really solid options for the Oilers.



I'm not too high on Cozens right now. Podkolzin I haven't seen at all but a lot of people seem to be raving about him so I need to start looking into him I guess.

I've started to become a bit apprehensive about russians lately though, a lot of them seems to get overhyped based on international play, which I guess is natural since most people don't see those guys play in the russian league, but that + the language and culture factor makes them quite risky to pick high. For the Oilers I'm not sure they can afford taking a big risk like that at this point in time unless they're 100% sure this kid will deliver.

Actually just watched some footage on this kid now. Like his hands and puck control. Seems to have a very good shot as well. Strong lower-body and can fend off defenders quite well. Don't like his skating that much though, he's shifty and good east-west and can shake defenders that way but he looks a bit heavy in his boots and not very explosive. Definitely something he'll need to work on if he wants to create space for himself in the NHL. Seems a little bit one-dimensional. Kinda looks like a budget version of Stamkos. Overall, just based on this limited footage, he doesn't strike me as an elite talent or someone I'd pick top5, but he has some good tools to work with. But there's probably more to his game than I saw just now considering almost everyone has him top5, so I'll keep watching

As a longtime fan of Russian prospects, I have to say that the overly loud contingent of Russian fans here who hate their prospects going to the CHL are more or less right. The key with Russian prospects, imo, is either letting them mature IN Russia (look at Kravtsov and Denisenko most recently), and/or when they do come over, make sure they actually have good support. The failure to really communicate with the player is almost always the key problem, and the cultural differences (Russians seem to just clam up when it's not going well) exacerbate NHL teams tendency to just demand the player put up or shut up.

But we're the Oilers, so I'd prefer we stay away from Russian players because we can't even get communication right with Finns for f***s sake. And Finns seem fine with most other orgs...

 

[Zaddy]

As a longtime fan of Russian prospects, I have to say that the overly loud contingent of Russian fans here who hate their prospects going to the CHL are more or less right. The key with Russian prospects, imo, is either letting them mature IN Russia (look at Kravtsov and Denisenko most recently), and/or when they do come over, make sure they actually have good support. The failure to really communicate with the player is almost always the key problem, and the cultural differences (Russians seem to just clam up when it's not going well) exacerbate NHL teams tendency to just demand the player put up or shut up.

But we're the Oilers, so I'd prefer we stay away from Russian players because we can't even get communication right with Finns for ****s sake. And Finns seem fine with most other orgs...

Yeah I can agree with this, although Sergachyov and Provorov are doing just fine but most russians who come over seem to flame out. Anyway, regardless of that I think a lot of russians get overhyped based on international play. Like you see them light it up internationally but then back home they can't even crack PPG in MHL, the russian junior league. That's a bit of a red flag to me.

Every russian who is a star player in the NHL today had big numbers in MHL or already played well in the KHL. Tarasenko, although a late birthday, had 13 goals and 24 points in 42 games in KHL in his draft year. But if you go by 18 y.o. season he was already a regular in the KHL then and had 7 goals and 10 points in 38 games (in addition to 15 points in the U18 WC).

Kucherov torched both the MHL (58 points in 41 games) and the U18 WC (21 points in 7 games) in his draft year. Kuznetsov was well over PPG in MHL (16 points in 9 games) and was a KHL regular. And the following year put up 32 points in 44 games in KHL.

Then you have Podkolzin who is getting top3 hype but only has 8 points in 11 games in MHL and has only played 1 game in KHL so far. He's also spent time in VHL (russian AHL basically) and has only 1 point in 7 games there. So the guy just hasn't been productive at all in his domestic league(s). Until that improves I'm not ready to rank/pick him that high.

For reference, in last years draft Ivan Morozov had similar production (23 points in 30 games in the MHL) to what Podkolzin has now and he went 2nd round, 61st overall to Vegas. He may not have played quite as well internationally as Podkolzin has so far but I think it gives you good reason to be wary with some of these guys.

 

[Aerrol]

Yeah I can agree with this, although Sergachyov and Provorov are doing just fine but most russians who come over seem to flame out. Anyway, regardless of that I think a lot of russians get overhyped based on international play. Like you see them light it up internationally but then back home they can't even crack PPG in MHL, the russian junior league. That's a bit of a red flag to me.

Every russian who is a star player in the NHL today had big numbers in MHL or already played well in the KHL. Tarasenko, although a late birthday, had 13 goals and 24 points in 42 games in KHL in his draft year. But if you go by 18 y.o. season he was already a regular in the KHL then and had 7 goals and 10 points in 38 games (in addition to 15 points in the U18 WC).

Kucherov torched both the MHL (58 points in 41 games) and the U18 WC (21 points in 7 games) in his draft year. Kuznetsov was well over PPG in MHL (16 points in 9 games) and was a KHL regular. And the following year put up 32 points in 44 games in KHL.

Then you have Podkolzin who is getting top3 hype but only has 8 points in 11 games in MHL and has only played 1 game in KHL so far. He's also spent time in VHL (russian AHL basically) and has only 1 point in 7 games there. So the guy just hasn't been productive at all in his domestic league(s). Until that improves I'm not ready to rank/pick him that high.

For reference, in last years draft Ivan Morozov had similar production (23 points in 30 games in the MHL) to what Podkolzin has now and he went 2nd round, 61st overall to Vegas. He may not have played quite as well internationally as Podkolzin has so far but I think it gives you good reason to be wary with some of these guys.

I don't think the CHL is the death sentence some Russians on here make it out to be, nor does it necessarily mean your career is worse than it would have been. It's just a lot harder to adapt that much at that age - if they pull it off then it pays huge dividends in fitting into NHL and AHL locker rooms and understanding what coaches here want. I agree with you overall that there is some overhyping (or underhyping!) based on international play overall, especially for Russians. I am still pretty high on Bulat Shafigullin for instance, who I think is a victim of exactly what we're talking about. I more wanted to chime in when I saw a post about being wary about Russians from you .

As for Podkolzin, I honestly don't have a solid opinion on him yet. I've been a bit more disengaged from the draft this year as the Oilers have really started to burn me out on following hockey super closely. From what I've seen/read, he sounds a lot like a bigger Denisenko to me: oddly low point totals but such an intriguing toolset and eye test that he at the very least deserves a deep dive into his minutes and usage. It's too bad they're only one year apart or he'd be a great case study to compare to Podolzin.

Edit: one really interesting thought occurs to me which I have no evidence to back it up - it seems that Russia continues to develop great forwards but awful defenders. Their best defensive prospects are from the CHL, but all (almost all? I can't think of any examples really) their star NHL level forwards developed in Russia instead. If I were running their development programs I'd definitely want to compare what's different about what Canada (and, more notably, Sweden!) is doing different for developing defenders.

 

[Zaddy]

I don't think the CHL is the death sentence some Russians on here make it out to be, nor does it necessarily mean your career is worse than it would have been. It's just a lot harder to adapt that much at that age - if they pull it off then it pays huge dividends in fitting into NHL and AHL locker rooms and understanding what coaches here want. I agree with you overall that there is some overhyping (or underhyping!) based on international play overall, especially for Russians. I am still pretty high on Bulat Shafigullin for instance, who I think is a victim of exactly what we're talking about. I more wanted to chime in when I saw a post about being wary about Russians from you .

As for Podkolzin, I honestly don't have a solid opinion on him yet. I've been a bit more disengaged from the draft this year as the Oilers have really started to burn me out on following hockey super closely. From what I've seen/read, he sounds a lot like a bigger Denisenko to me: oddly low point totals but such an intriguing toolset and eye test that he at the very least deserves a deep dive into his minutes and usage. It's too bad they're only one year apart or he'd be a great case study to compare to Podolzin.

Edit: one really interesting thought occurs to me which I have no evidence to back it up - it seems that Russia continues to develop great forwards but awful defenders. Their best defensive prospects are from the CHL, but all (almost all? I can't think of any examples really) their star NHL level forwards developed in Russia instead. If I were running their development programs I'd definitely want to compare what's different about what Canada (and, more notably, Sweden!) is doing different for developing defenders.

Oh yeah, Denisenko is another good example. It'll be very interesting to see how he pans out (and Podkolzin too for that matter). Denisenkos draft-1 season numbers in the MHL were actually better than in his draft year, so that was a big red flag for me too last year. But of course it's entirely possible that MHL numbers don't mean much, but in general I feel like a high-end prospect should be able to score at a high level in that league. But I think the jury is still out on just how much those numbers mean and it'll be interesting to see how these guys develop.

 

[BudBundy]

Are we officially in the Lose for Hughes conversation?

The Oilers never leave the 1st overall conversation.

 

[McDNicks17]

Honka seems to have fallen off a cliff.

I wonder if Kokkonen has passed him as top Finnish D.

 

[Zaddy]

Honka seems to have fallen off a cliff.

I wonder if Kokkonen has passed him as top Finnish D.

I think the top finnish D is probably Ville Heinola.

Ville Heinola at eliteprospects.com

 

[smokersarejokers]

Anyone going to the top prospects game in Red Deer?

Wish I could, but can't. Interested to see how the WHL guys compare to the OHL guys.

 

[780il]

Time to talk draft...

We suck and are now in the post Chia fallout. It's gonna take a well managed quick 2 year tankathon to turn it around - just like Boston did.

 

[780il]

Time to talk draft...

We suck and are now in the post Chia fallout. It's gonna take a well managed quick 2 year tankathon to turn it around - just like Boston did.

Here's what my draft list would look like for the Oil:

1a. Hughes
1b. Kakko
3. Cozens
4. Dach
5. Byram
6. Krebs
7. Turcotte
8. Zegras
9. Broberg
10. Podkolzin

 

[780il]

I really really want Cozens or Each for the 2c.

Big right handed centers, play a physical 2 way game and can drive the play.

Preference to Cozens because he's more of a goal scorer and we need a goal scoring right shot on the pp left wall.