The Population Myth (Outline)

[Killion]

I was working at a youth centre in downtown Toronto last year, and it was almost all first-generation kids we were working with (or kids who moved here very young). They were mainly from Asia, coming from poorer families, mostly associated within their own communities, and hockey wasn't even on their radar.

I wouldnt exactly call the in most cases very wealthy immigrants who came over from Hong Kong from the mid-80's & beyond "middle class" by Canadian standards or "A-Typical" immigrants to this country. That group was/is extremely well heeled. Richmond Hill, Bayview & York Mills, the West Side of Vancouver & Shaugnessy, Richmond & other areas completely transformed, housing prices going through the roof, creating artificially high prices that only their money created & sustains. The bulk of immigrants are much more like the ones you encountered downtown, assimilation a process that usually takes 2 generations to complete. "Back in the Day", it was no different in Toronto, as kids from Regent Park, Cabbagetown & Kensington etc generally only got to play hockey through Church or school programs, though Regent Park itself had a "Boys Club" with a House League program & teams entered in the then THL/MTHL in a few divisions. Almost all of those players however were not from immigrant families, they just werent very well off.

 

[Canadiens1958]

Community Centers

I wouldnt exactly call the in most cases very wealthy immigrants who came over from Hong Kong from the mid-80's & beyond "middle class" by Canadian standards or "A-Typical" immigrants to this country. That group was/is extremely well heeled. Richmond Hill, Bayview & York Mills, the West Side of Vancouver & Shaugnessy, Richmond & other areas completely transformed, housing prices going through the roof, creating artificially high prices that only their money created & sustains. The bulk of immigrants are much more like the ones you encountered downtown, assimilation a process that usually takes 2 generations to complete. "Back in the Day", it was no different in Toronto, as kids from Regent Park, Cabbagetown & Kensington etc generally only got to play hockey through Church or school programs, though Regent Park itself had a "Boys Club" with a House League program & teams entered in the then THL/MTHL in a few divisions. Almost all of those players however were not from immigrant families, they just werent very well off.

As long as the youngsters are have access to opportunity and expertide that their parents cannot provide them there will be progress and within two generations the group will be integrated.

 

[Stonefly]

Removed

 

[Iain Fyffe]

Read any of danincanada's posts in other threads?

Nope. That's why I was asking for specifics.

I can only assume from this comment that you haven't played a game with trump cards. Euchre for instance.

I play quite a lot of bridge actually. Once a trump has been played, the trick cannot be won with anything but a trump. This means that C1958 is saying population can never be the most important factor in any specific case.

Seems like an attempt at being argumentative really.

No, some of C1958's comments seem to indicate he wants to eliminate population from the discussion entirely.

You believe that the different aspects involved in developing athletes are all equal? Or are some aspects more important?

They're not all equal, obviously. But note C1958's comment to which I was replying, that other factors always trump population arguments. I don't believe there's any evidence to suggest that population is never a really important factor.

 

[Iain Fyffe]

No one claimed that you said it doubled just used a convenient example to illustrate how there is no correlation.

1. You did say that, in the sense that you have claimed the myth you're debuking is doubling population = doubling hockey players. If you're arguing against him, presumably you believe his position falls within the myth you have defined. His claim was that doubling the population should increase the number of hockey players (by some undefined amount), which seems an awfully reasonable claim to me.

2. You have not illustrated there is no correlation. You have claimed there is no correlation, but have provided no real evidence.

 

[Stonefly]

Nope. That's why I was asking for specifics.


I play quite a lot of bridge actually. Once a trump has been played, the trick cannot be won with anything but a trump. This means that C1958 is saying population can never be the most important factor in any specific case.


No, some of C1958's comments seem to indicate he wants to eliminate population from the discussion entirely.


They're not all equal, obviously. But note C1958's comment to which I was replying, that other factors always trump population arguments. I don't believe there's any evidence to suggest that population is never a really important factor.

Two Countries with the same population, one produces 50% more hockey players through better minor league management. Has no correlation with population.

If there happened to be two Countries, one with a larger population who ran identically then population could be considered a trump card. Reality of it is, that will never happen. Population is never the trump card.

Maybe it should be eliminated from the discussion. Look at Killions post regarding the results of the Stats Canada figures. When you look at all the other contributing factors, population is of minor importance.

 

[overpass]

No. The 1920 USA population figures are below:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1920_United_States_Census

Since 1920 the population of the USA has nearly tripled:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population

2010 figures provided.

Yet no baseball or boxing analysts are claiming that since 1920 the baseball or boxing talent pool in the USA has nearly tripled.

If the assumption is logical as you claim then it should be logical in regards to other sports, domains, etc.

The talent pool argument is also made in baseball discussions.

Bill James, who is best known for being a pioneer in baseball stats but was an all-around thinker as well, has often argued against the talent pool argument. Among his points:

1. There are many more sports for athletes to choose from today, so baseball may be getting a lower percentage of the top athletes today as compared to 50+ years ago.

2. There are many examples of disproportionate accomplishments from small populations, or little to no accomplishment from large populations. San Pedro de Macoris, a small city in the Dominican Republic, is known as the "Cradle of Shortstops" and has produced 75 major league players, including great players like Tony Fernandez, George Bell, Pedro Guerrero, Sammy Sosa, Alfonso Soriano, and Robinson Cano. Clearly there is some kind of culture there that produces baseball players.

Similarly, Topeka, KS has the same population as London had in Elizabethan England. Where are all the great writers from Topeka?

Here's something else to consider. In Canada where is the increase in population coming from? How much has immigration affected the population? I don't know these numbers, just something that needs to be looked at as well I would think. I'm a babyboomer and can tell you that the faces of the people I see these days look a lot different than the faces I saw in my youth. I'm pretty sure most of them have no interest in hockey.

I think it goes beyond interest as well. To play in the NHL, it's almost necessary to have a large build. Unless players are extremely skilled they need to be at least six feet tall. And it's a big advantage to be 6'3" or taller.

How many East Asian or South Asian immigrants do you see with that kind of build? Very few, especially when compared to whites and blacks. Hockey is a big man's sport, and that limits the available talent pool.

See national soccer teams to support this view - while soccer is a sport that allows a wider variety of body types to have success, Asian teams are usually physically smaller than European and African teams, and are at a disadvantage in physical battles around the goals.

I don't think that Asian immigration (or immigration of anyone who has genes that are likely to lead to sub 6'0" heights) is doing much for the talent pool of NHL players.

 

[Canadiens1958]

correlation

Two Countries with the same population, one produces 50% more hockey players through better minor league management. Has no correlation with population.

If there happened to be two Countries, one with a larger population who ran identically then population could be considered a trump card. Reality of it is, that will never happen. Population is never the trump card.

Maybe it should be eliminated from the discussion. Look at Killions post regarding the results of the Stats Canada figures. When you look at all the other contributing factors, population is of minor importance.

Stats Can the various regional stats from Hockey Canada and jurisdictions per provided links, etc show that there is no correlation.

Simply those claiming correlation have to step-up and submit proof of correlation. Very open to submissions with data or interpretations of Hockey Canada data, etc.

 

[Canadiens1958]

Carnival and Festival Hockey

The first edition of the Quebec Winter Carnival in 1894 included hockey games between English and French athletic clubs:

https://circle.ubc.ca/handle/2429/23270

Carnival and festival hockey continued into the 1960;s. BTW the famous Quebec Pee Wee Tournament while held during the carnival is not a carnival event.

The carnivals and festivals throughout the province of Quebec varied in size and content, hockey was a staple but the age groups and calibre varied. Other sport ranged from barrel jumping to broomball. The size of the event varied - municipal, regional, parish, district.

Single constant was that they were very popular in an era where entertainment was mainly do it yourself. The prestige of winning a district hockey title at the festival was enormous. More important than winning outside tournaments or league championships. The exhibition game between the priests of opposing parishes was a hot ticket.

Contributions from other provinces appreciated.

 

[Killion]

The talent pool argument is also made in baseball discussions. There are many examples of disproportionate accomplishments from small populations, or little to no accomplishment from large populations. San Pedro de Macoris, a small city in the Dominican Republic, is known as the "Cradle of Shortstops" and has produced 75 major league players.....

Excellent post. Certainly the "HotHouse Effect" in sport trumps population as per the example of the Dominican Republic. A direct correlation can be made to hockey, and it would actually be interesting to see an actual statistical breakdown by position (goalies coming out of Quebec for eg.), and take a good hard look at what it is within their amateur programs that nurtures & produces so inordinate an amount of future pro's. I suspect a large part of it is likely idolization & desire, followed by great coaching. Port Arthur for example produced a number of great goalies over a 10yr period late 40's & 50's. Certainly Tarasov took this approach to a whole other level in creating the Red Army teams, and it would be interesting to see how the Czech's, Swedes & Finns' got to where their at quite specifically by region within their respective countries.

 

[Canadiens1958]

Region

Excellent post. Certainly the "HotHouse Effect" in sport trumps population as per the example of the Dominican Republic. A direct correlation can be made to hockey, and it would actually be interesting to see an actual statistical breakdown by position (goalies coming out of Quebec for eg.), and take a good hard look at what it is within their amateur programs that nurtures & produces so inordinate an amount of future pro's. I suspect a large part of it is likely idolization & desire, followed by great coaching. Port Arthur for example produced a number of great goalies over a 10yr period late 40's & 50's. Certainly Tarasov took this approach to a whole other level in creating the Red Army teams, and it would be interesting to see how the Czech's, Swedes & Finns' got to where their at quite specifically by region within their respective countries.

Leaving in a few minutes but later today I will post about goalies from a specific region of Quebec, generations before Francois Allaire came along.

 

[Killion]

The first edition of the Quebec Winter Carnival in 1894 included hockey games between English and French athletic clubs:

The PeeWee tournament is an excellent barometer of where individual organizations (and countries) sit in terms of development & ranking at the mid-way point in terms of elite teams, raw talent. Founded in 1960, for its first decade the rivalry was primarily between Ontario (Toronto based teams) & Quebec (Montreal based teams). Today of course you have over 15-16 countries sending teams, that particular tournament an interesting study in where countries sit mid-way through the amateur development process. At that level however, population does in fact play a key factor, as the greater in-take of raw numbers at the Tyke, Minor Atom & Atom levels in major metropolitan regions favors organizations like the Toronto Marlboro's or whomever at the AAA levels.

 

[Canadiens1958]

The Mauricie Goalies

The Mauricie River flows from the Lac St. Jean region down to Trois Rivieres on the St.Laurent River,.Cap de la Madelaine is on the east side of the river opposite Trois Rivieres while Shawinigan is approximately 1/2 an hour uo the old highway from Trois Rivieres.

During the first half of the 20th century the area enjoyed economic prosperity. Hydro electric power, then in private hands, lumber, pulp and pape, aluminum, and textile miles were very prosperous industries. In the 1920's arenas were built in the area and within a generation the region produced quality NHL players - Marcel Pronovost, Jean-Guy Talbot, Andre Pronovost and a group of five goalies.

Jacques Plante fom Mont Carmel, / Shawinigan Falls,Marcel Paille, Claude Pronovost from Shawinigan Falls and Bob Perreault plus Gilles Boisvert from Trois Rivieres, all played in the NHL within a five season time frame in the second half of the 1950's..

 

[Canadiens1958]

"AAA" Pendulum

The PeeWee tournament is an excellent barometer of where individual organizations (and countries) sit in terms of development & ranking at the mid-way point in terms of elite teams, raw talent. Founded in 1960, for its first decade the rivalry was primarily between Ontario (Toronto based teams) & Quebec (Montreal based teams). Today of course you have over 15-16 countries sending teams, that particular tournament an interesting study in where countries sit mid-way through the amateur development process. At that level however, population does in fact play a key factor, as the greater in-take of raw numbers at the Tyke, Minor Atom & Atom levels in major metropolitan regions favors organizations like the Toronto Marlboro's or whomever at the AAA levels.

Very accurate observation about the Quebec Pee Wee Tournament and tournament hockey in general.

The "AAA" issue is changing how is developing. You have the in season "AAA" organizations playing according to the rules governing their specific jurisdictions then you have the off season "AAA" organizations and tournaments that operate outside the reach of sanctioning bodies . These are basically elite Select teams that operate independently once the regular youth hockey season ends around the end of April.There are no territorial constraints,usually categories structured on the minor/major age groupings with excellent coaching and game/tournament opportunities limited only by the parents ability to pay(in theory). There is the option of travel throughout North America to participate in elite tournaments, showcasing talent to junior, prep school and university scouts..

The high density metropolitan centers like Toronto have an advantage since they are magnets for such tournaments. No sanctioning = no limits on tournaments.

The situation is growing at a pace where in a few years the regular season risks becoming the after thought - an opportunity to stay in hockey shape during the school year while getting ready for the high level off season competition. The various off season organizations use the regular season to scout and prepare.

 

[Killion]

The various off season organizations use the regular season to scout and prepare.

Yes, they do indeed, along with the "Outlaw" so called Major Junior League ('s), most notably the Greater Metro Junior Hockey League. Stiff sanctions for players & or organizations playing in & or supporting their activities.