The Playoffs

[HoweFan]

If somehow the playoffs could be salvaged but not the season do you think they could base the standings on winning percentage ?

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[Henkka]

I think the latest starting playoffs have happened at 1994-95 lockout season.

Then they started at 6th May.

And would have ended at June 30th if 7-game series.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

If somehow the playoffs could be salvaged but not the season do you think they could base the standings on winning percentage ?

I think they would have to base it on win%. Only 2 teams played 68, rest were 69/70/71gp, ~10 per. It'd be a logistical nightmare to try & have the teams play an equal #of gp, so much so that it may not even be possible.

Win% would be the fairest route. If the "pause" in the season is over 1 week, then the teams that played extra games can't complain too much about it, barring they didn't lose players to injury. We got ~2 months before they have to start, they could always make every round best of 5 if needed in light of this chaotic madness.

 

[Gniwder]

I think they would have to base it on win%. Only 2 teams played 68, rest were 69/70/71gp, ~10 per. It'd be a logistical nightmare to try & have the teams play an equal #of gp, so much so that it may not even be possible.

Win% would be the fairest route. If the "pause" in the season is over 1 week, then the teams that played extra games can't complain too much about it, barring they didn't lose players to injury. We got ~2 months before they have to start, they could always make every round best of 5 if needed in light of this chaotic madness.

The pause will be over a week, that much is already guaranteed. I would guess at least a month. Schools here are closed for 6 weeks and possibly longer.

The bigger question is what happens if this virus doesn't go away? It's already spread worldwide, so it could come back from another country any time.

 

[Dotter]

I suspect this outbreak is going to last a minimum of 6 months... and get much worse. Best case scenario, they find an anti-virus in 1-year. One Harvard scientist predicted 40% to 70% of the world population contract it. Also the renowned Dr. from the SARS outbreak suggested 60%.

I expect no playoffs this season, probably no training camp or start of the season in 2021. I expect world economic suffering and the worst recession we've seen in decades that will pale in comparison to 2008.

It's not good. But I think the CORVID-19 is overblown. Yes, elders, obese and people with respiratory issues are at major risk, but overall, it is way overblown. The thing that's going to really hurt is the economy.

EDIT: The only way I can see them playing is if they keep the arenas empty and only televise. No media, no fans, no "fathers" trips.... just players and staffers that have been tested frequently and stay quarantined at home between games. That's the only possible scenario IMO. Even then I am not sure due to having to fly and go to heavy populated airports.

 

[Bench]

Yes, elders, obese and people with respiratory issues are at major risk, but overall, it is way overblown.

You just linked an article saying 70% of the world could be infected. That would be 5.3 billion people.

If only 1% of those die, that's over 50 million people.

That's the entire population of Sweden being wiped out. 5 times.

 

[ArmChairGM89]

You just linked an article saying 70% of the world could be infected. That would be 5.3 billion people.

If only 1% of those die, that's over 50 million people.

That's the entire population of Sweden being wiped out. 5 times.

The 40-70% figure is the U.S. not the world. It’s unlikely this has a very large effect in warm climates. They think it’s similar to the flu in that it can’t live in heat

 

[Ricelund]

One Harvard scientist predicted 40% to 70% of the world population contract it.

I expect world economic suffering and the worst recession we've seen in decades that will pale in comparison to 2008.

It's not good. But I think the CORVID-19 is overblown. Yes, elders, obese and people with respiratory issues are at major risk, but overall, it is way overblown.

 

[HisNoodliness]

You just linked an article saying 70% of the world could be infected. That would be 5.3 billion people.

If only 1% of those die, that's over 50 million people.

That's the entire population of Sweden being wiped out. 5 times.

Spanish Flu was a worst case scenario and it was 30% of the global population infected, 5% dead (15% of infected patients). I'd be very surprised if we manage to get to 30% infected again with the better awareness, social distancing and lack of WW1 this time around. Still if this is even one fifth as bad as that, imagining what it would look like if just 1% of the world's population dies from this is horrifying. 5% or more... I shudder thinking about the impact on our future.

 

[ArmChairGM89]

Spanish Flu was a worst case scenario and it was 30% of the global population infected, 5% dead (15% of infected patients). I'd be very surprised if we manage to get to 30% infected again with the better awareness, social distancing and lack of WW1 this time around. Still if this is even one fifth as bad as that, imagining what it would look like if just 1% of the world's population dies from this is horrifying. 5% or more... I shudder thinking about the impact on our future.

The mortality rate is likely at or under 1% (scientists can only speculate until more testing is done. Viral diseases always have high mortality rates at first because only the worst cases are identified due to lack of testing) so for 1% of the worlds population to die, the entire world would need to be infected. LOL

 

[Bench]

The 40-70% figure is the U.S. not the world. It’s unlikely this has a very large effect in warm climates. They think it’s similar to the flu in that it can’t live in heat

The article he linked said world.

I just thought it was odd he's linking stats that show a devastating outcome while calling it over overblown the next paragraph.

 

[HisNoodliness]

The mortality rate is likely at or under 1% (scientists can only speculate until more testing is done. Viral diseases always have high mortality rates at first because only the worst cases are identified due to lack of testing) so for 1% of the worlds population to die, the entire world would need to be infected. LOL

For this to end up as bad as Spanish Flu it would very likely be as a result of a mutated second wave and the collapse of our medical systems. But yeah I expect at most 10% infected, and thus many fewer dead.

 

[Dotter]

The article he linked said world.

I just thought it was odd he's linking stats that show a devastating outcome while calling it over overblown the next paragraph.

Because the mortality rate is overblown. Like someone said, only the worst of the worst is reported. I believe Elon Musk when he said driving is more dangerous than CV.

Surprised you didn't get that. Your initial reply was also overblown... again just proving my point even further to the overblown-ness.

 

[SCD]

For this to end up as bad as Spanish Flu it would very likely be as a result of a mutated second wave and the collapse of our medical systems. But yeah I expect at most 10% infected, and thus many fewer dead.

The most respected medical researchers are estimating 40-50 % infection rate. There will be a second peak in the fall. This virus is about 10 times more contagious than influenza. It is not about containing the infection, it is about reducing the number of people all infected at once. Our medical system cannot handle that.

But now that you are out of grad school, yep 10% sounds right.

 

[Bench]

Because the mortality rate is overblown. Like someone said, only the worst of the worst is reported. I believe Elon Musk when he said driving is more dangerous than CV.

Surprised you didn't get that. Your initial reply was also overblown... again just proving my point even further to the overblown-ness.

What I'm saying is if you believe 40-70% of the world will be infected, then you cannot claim this is overblown.

Over half the population getting a single virus in the span of months is not overblown, even if it only kills a small fraction of those people. But we don't know yet, is a big part of the issue. Precautions are all we can do to minimize these numbers. And folks like you will call it overblown if the precautions work, ultimately.

Finally, I find those who are cavalier that this is a pile of nothing seem to have little empathy for those in vulnerable groups who will have their life disrupted and live in fear of being in public for months and months. Maybe it's because I work with seniors every day, so yeah, I'm biased. I'll wear that proudly.

Elon comes off like a tool by dismissing the fears of people who want to protect their senior loved ones. But Elon and being a tool are becoming a cozy duo these days.

 

[Winger98]

What I'm saying is if you believe 40-70% of the world will be infected, then you cannot claim this is overblown.

Over half the population getting a single virus in the span of months is not overblown, even if it only kills a small fraction of those people. But we don't know yet, is a big part of the issue. Precautions are all we can do to minimize these numbers. And folks like you will call it overblown if the precautions work, ultimately.

Finally, I find those who are cavalier that this is a pile of nothing seem to have little empathy for those in vulnerable groups who will have their life disrupted and live in fear of being in public for months and months. Maybe it's because I work with seniors every day, so yeah, I'm biased. I'll wear that proudly.

Elon comes off like a tool by dismissing the fears of people who want to protect their senior loved ones. But Elon and being a tool are becoming a cozy duo these days.

Y2K

People still think it was a hoax or a joke rather than giving credit to the thousands of man hours and billions of dollars put into fixing it before it broke. Some governments still haven't declassified documents relating to it.

I think they would have to base it on win%. Only 2 teams played 68, rest were 69/70/71gp, ~10 per. It'd be a logistical nightmare to try & have the teams play an equal #of gp, so much so that it may not even be possible.

Win% would be the fairest route. If the "pause" in the season is over 1 week, then the teams that played extra games can't complain too much about it, barring they didn't lose players to injury. We got ~2 months before they have to start, they could always make every round best of 5 if needed in light of this chaotic madness.

I think they'll finish the season because these guys will have went nearly a month without playing competitive hockey and will need to get back in shape a bit before doing something like the playoffs. Maybe they'll shorten it to where every team would play ~75 games on the year or something, but I'd expect to see some regular season games.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

& back to the Thread Topic, THN today:

 

[Gniwder]

The 40-70% figure is the U.S. not the world. It’s unlikely this has a very large effect in warm climates. They think it’s similar to the flu in that it can’t live in heat

Iran has the third highest number of infections and it's not that cold there. Also, it's already spread to the southern hemisphere and they're about to start their cold season. Pretty good chance it comes back next winter.

Fatality rate is 1% for 50 YO, 14% for 80+. Most of the fatalities are older men, so it's not the end of the world even if several million die. I hate to sound like a cold hearted engineer, but in the long run this could actually reduce overall health care costs because it will kill so many old people. Death is cheaper than long term care.

 

[HisNoodliness]

The most respected medical researchers are estimating 40-50 % infection rate. There will be a second peak in the fall. This virus is about 10 times more contagious than influenza. It is not about containing the infection, it is about reducing the number of people all infected at once. Our medical system cannot handle that.

But now that you are out of grad school, yep 10% sounds right.

Still in grad school, and I'm no medical expert, but total infections hitting 40 or 50% are no certainty. Spanish Flu only had a 30% infection rate and it was the worst pandemic in world history. I think if you're projecting a 50% infection rate that assumes a mutation and second peak. Luckily I think our awareness is way better today than back then. So I'm just pulling 10% out of my a**, and hoping that we could hold it that low if everyone does what we need to: hand washing, social distancing, stop smoking etc.

If we do get a mutated virus leading to a second peak in the fall and an infection rate as high as 50%, as you say our medical systems couldn't handle that number of patients... I don't even want to think about how that would go. It would be horrifying, and it's likely none of us would ever be quite the same. So maybe it's just wishful thinking projecting lower numbers, but I'm hopeful we can avoid something like that. My parents aren't the youngest and half the people in my family are doctors or nurses... I just don't want to think about an infection rate that high.

 

[Dotter]

What I'm saying is if you believe 40-70% of the world will be infected, then you cannot claim this is overblown.

Over half the population getting a single virus in the span of months is not overblown, even if it only kills a small fraction of those people. But we don't know yet, is a big part of the issue. Precautions are all we can do to minimize these numbers. And folks like you will call it overblown if the precautions work, ultimately.

Finally, I find those who are cavalier that this is a pile of nothing seem to have little empathy for those in vulnerable groups who will have their life disrupted and live in fear of being in public for months and months. Maybe it's because I work with seniors every day, so yeah, I'm biased. I'll wear that proudly.

Elon comes off like a tool by dismissing the fears of people who want to protect their senior loved ones. But Elon and being a tool are becoming a cozy duo these days.

It's a shame. But not worth crippling the entire economy over. Flu kills many people every year. So does texting and driving along with a bunch of other stuff, i.e. obesity, driving impaired, choking on a chicken bone, and etc.

I think once the dust settles, only a tiny fraction of ppl lose lives over this. Very tiny. Last I checked, only 55 people in the US have died from CV. To put it in perspective, one person dies every 37 seconds in the US from cardiovascular disease.

Most people 65+ are living through CV with little to no care, just self-treatment... and who knows how many people have it and don't even know it and essentially goes undocumented, which causes that 1% you claim even more inflated. For all we know .0001% are at critical risk.

More people probably died racing to Walmart for toilet paper and hand sanitizer TODAY alone compared to the 55 that were killed by CV ytd.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

It's a shame. But not worth crippling the entire economy over. Flu kills many people every year. So does texting and driving along with a bunch of other stuff, i.e. obesity, driving impaired, choking on a chicken bone, and etc.

I think once the dust settles, only a tiny fraction of ppl lose lives over this. Very tiny. Last I checked, only 55 people in the US have died from CV. To put it in perspective, one person dies every 37 seconds in the US from cardiovascular disease.

Most people 65+ are living through CV with little to no care, just self-treatment... and who knows how many people have it and don't even know it and essentially goes undocumented, which causes that 1% you claim even more inflated. For all we know .0001% are at critical risk.

More people probably died racing to Walmart for toilet paper and hand sanitizer TODAY alone compared to the 55 that were killed by CV ytd.

Even if all of this is 100% true... it's very very dangerous to chalk it up to being overblown.

If it is "overblown", it is because people only react to overblown outcomes to drastically change their lives and how they think. If "it's just the flu, bro" is how it was being reported, we'd still be watching the Wings playing and the virus would be spreading like ****ing wildfire.

So no, don't go into the fetal position and think the world will end. But... realize that guys like Fauci aren't just talking out of their asses. If the total amounts at the end of all this aren't that bad... it's not because the spread wasn't as bad as we thought. It is because people finally took medical professionals seriously.

E: And while I am not worried about myself contracting the virus because I feel like I'd be personally be able to make it through just fine... I'm deathly afraid that if I got it and shared it with my mom and dad who are in the ultra high risk category for it, I'd be the gun that took them out. Same with other people's aged relatives.

That's why I am ready to take any precautions I need to.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Still in grad school, and I'm no medical expert, but total infections hitting 40 or 50% are no certainty. Spanish Flu only had a 30% infection rate and it was the worst pandemic in world history. I think if you're projecting a 50% infection rate that assumes a mutation and second peak. Luckily I think our awareness is way better today than back then. So I'm just pulling 10% out of my a**, and hoping that we could hold it that low if everyone does what we need to: hand washing, social distancing, stop smoking etc.

If we do get a mutated virus leading to a second peak in the fall and an infection rate as high as 50%, as you say our medical systems couldn't handle that number of patients... I don't even want to think about how that would go. It would be horrifying, and it's likely none of us would ever be quite the same. So maybe it's just wishful thinking projecting lower numbers, but I'm hopeful we can avoid something like that. My parents aren't the youngest and half the people in my family are doctors or nurses... I just don't want to think about an infection rate that high.

There are a couple competing things that make me concerned and simultaneously less concerned about this. When you compare 1918 to now, there are several things that are good and bad in comparison on both ends, obviously this list is not going to be exhaustive.

Bad:
* The world is so much more interconnected now. This outbreak started in China and now places like Italy, Iran, and Switzerland are becoming among the hardest hit. Global travel is just so easy nowadays that complete lockdown is impossible. Back in 1918, you had ships but those would take a long time
* On the same score, the international economy is such that if Italy locks down, all markets feel it. If you have Iran and the US shutting themselves off, the market is in deep shit.
* News can spread so much more quickly and spark a panic that could make the response go in unforeseen directions. In 1918, you had telegraphs and the like, but news of a huge breakout in New York wouldn't likely reach LA for up to several days... and the outlying places in the Rockies, Appalachia, etc.? Maybe they never even know about it.
* Science as a whole. There wasn't a flu vaccine to come for 20! years at the time of the Spanish Flu. They couldn't identify what pathogen was causing it.

Good:
* The news cycle is also good. Now we can, within an hour, shutter events that involve upwards of a million people nightly. We can spread news of where to go and what to do. Sure, you have to wade through shit, but we can spread emergency news with incredible speed.
* Within the month of December, they had the DNA coding of the Coronavirus shared globally. We have started work on a vaccine and/or treatments immediately. Sure, it'll take a year to 18 months to get them tested and solid to go, but that's a damn shot better than 20 years.
* As bad as 40-70% would choke our medical system... 30% back in 1918 would potentially have backed up a lot more... especially with medical professionals at a loss of what to do to take care of it.

I have to think that we are more prepared in 2020 than the world was in 1918 for the Spanish Flu.

 

[Dotter]

I'd be personally be able to make it through just fine... I'm deathly afraid that if I got it and shared it with my mom and dad who are in the ultra high risk category for it, I'd be the gun that took them out. Same with other people's aged relatives.

That's why I am ready to take any precautions I need to.

As I type this, 10 people in the entire United States are classified as "serious/critical".

In.The.Entire.USA: 10 Your post again proves my point.... "overblown"

Also while I type this, 24 people in the US just died from cardiovascular disease, and probably car accidents that resulted in 3 deaths.

Yet, CV is killing our economy, causing mad widespread panic and ppl are acting like animals at stores.
I'm afraid my house is going to get broke into for my toilet paper and vitamin C.

Meanwhile, those same "panic" people probably eat a Big Mac and text and drive on their trip to Walmart.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

As I type this, 10 people in the entire United States are classified as "serious/critical".

In.The.Entire.USA: 10 Your post again proves my point.... "overblown"

Also while I type this, 24 people in the US just died from cardiovascular disease, and probably car accidents that resulted in 3 deaths.

Yet, CV is killing our economy, causing mad widespread panic and ppl are acting like animals at stores.
I'm afraid my house is going to get broke into for my toilet paper and vitamin C.

Meanwhile, those same "panic" people probably eat a Big Mac and text and drive on their trip to Walmart.

I don't understand this response to my post. I'm ready to react. I'm not losing my mind. I'm just saying I'm taking precautions and am ready to switch to do more so my immunosuppressed dad doesn't become one of those serious/critical cases, you pud.

 

[Dotter]

I don't understand this response to my post. I'm ready to react. I'm not losing my mind. I'm just saying I'm taking precautions and am ready to switch to do more so my immunosuppressed dad doesn't become one of those serious/critical cases, you pud.

Pud?

Sounds like the issues you're suffering from is less to do with CV exclusively, but rather (more importantly) any common/generic virus thing due to your immunosuppressed dad. I get that. So not sure why you initially responded to me since everything in your family's health conditions should be 'overblown' including CV to a common allergic sneeze.

So, as a "pud", I get why you are concerned. But you need to be concerned about everything. CV should be just another day for you from a precautionary standpoint.