The Oilers WILL take RNH First Overall

[Akonite]

Hopkins weight worries me - the Oilers are a butter soft injury prone team and picking Hopkins just adds a smurf to a team full of smurfs.

RNH's weight is a common issue, but by no means should it be the reason we take say Larsson first overall instead.

Also, players are injury prone, not teams. And 6'1'' is the new smurf? I think youre setting the bar too high.

And all the arguments against taking Larsson because defensemen take longer to develop is really just another reason to draft him. The Oilers need an elite defenseman BADLY, this roster just BLEEDS goals against and Larsson might not help with that right away, but a bunch of potential #4 defensemen does not = a surefire #1 defenseman. Oil fans should look no further than the 2006 playoffs to see how important a #1 defenseman is. I can't believe this is an argument, really.

Yes, our GA is awful but its not like we need to patch that hole for our cup run next year, we have time and hopefully Ryan Whitney can return to his pre injury form next year.

Larsson does not = surefire #1 defenseman either.

Hey if Larsson isn't the BPA then by all means I hope they pick Hopkins.

I can agree to that.

 

[SeanVT395]

Not if Edmonton loses the lottery and some other team takes him first overall.It seems very likely that the team that is in 30th overall is going to lose it this year since for the last few years the 30th place team has won it.

Well, the Flyers Lost the draft lottery in '07 and drafted JvR 2nd overall instead of Kane 1st.

Either way I still think if they do win the lottery, They'll draft Larsson.

 

[AwesomePanthers]

There is a 48% chance that the team in 30th keeps the pick. What happened last year or the year before has no impact on this.

And their's a 52% chance of someone else drafting 1st overall.

 

[Homesick]

Hm so you don't want Lidstrom? DRW still laughing after the 1989 draft. And yes he took some years to develop. but after 6 Norris (soon to be 7?), one Conn smythe and 4 cups DRW think he was all waiting..

Larsson is the BPA and with their lack of good d -men Oilers would be stupid to pass him for RHN. If Oilers are that stupid then the next team can laughing nad say, thank you for the Norris winner... Oilers forward pool is too deep to take an another small forward.

Oilers haven't d-man since 1996. Oilers do need to understand they will not be a top team by drafting only forwards. The do need some top d talents too.

No scout is saying that Larsson is the next Lidstrom. They're saying he's the best Swedish defenseman since Lidstrom.

And their's a 52% chance of someone else drafting 1st overall.

29th place see's an 80% chance of someone else winning it.

 

[AwesomePanthers]

29th place see's an 80% chance of someone else winning it.

This thread is about the Oilers, so we are taking from their POV. So there is a bigger chance of them losing it, than keeping it.

 

[jukon]

No scout is saying that Larsson is the next Lidstrom. They're saying he's the best Swedish defenseman since Lidstrom.

I haven't heard anyone explicitly say Larsson is (or is going to be) better than Hedman.

 

[Akonite]

I haven't heard anyone explicitly say Larsson is (or is going to be) better than Hedman.

Heres one person saying it

"I think Adam is better than Hedman, but that's my opinion"

http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=548957


That doesnt mean its true, but it has been said.

 

[Richiebottles]

Huberdeau is going to be the steal of the draft. People are going to regret not taking him in the top 5.

 

[Tavaresmagicalplay*]

The lottery seriously needs to be weighted differently.

Teams would only tank harder if the nhl leaned toward the nbas way of doing things.

 

[Fourier]

Hopkins weight worries me - the Oilers are a butter soft injury prone team and picking Hopkins just adds a smurf to a team full of smurfs.

And all the arguments against taking Larsson because defensemen take longer to develop is really just another reason to draft him. The Oilers need an elite defenseman BADLY, this roster just BLEEDS goals against and Larsson might not help with that right away, but a bunch of potential #4 defensemen does not = a surefire #1 defenseman. Oil fans should look no further than the 2006 playoffs to see how important a #1 defenseman is. I can't believe this is an argument, really.

Hey if Larsson isn't the BPA then by all means I hope they pick Hopkins.

If you watch the current version of the Oilers you get a glimpse of the changes that are in store. There top prospects are generally all big and much more physical than in the recent past.

In four years you very likely have Hartikainen, Lander, Hamilton and Pitlick in the top nine. Hall and Eberle are not soft in the least. And Paajarvi is a big kid who is starting to find his way around the tougher spots in the ice.

Vande Velde looks like he could be a decent #4 center, and if things work out Abney may well be a fourth liner/enforcer that can even play a little.

On the back end, the Oilers will already add significantly to what they had this year with the return of Whitney. Petry also looks like he will be a solid addition.
They have Peckham, Teubert and Plante to fill out the bottom two. They also have Marincin and Davidson on the way. If they could get a first pairng guy by trade or through UFA they could have a solid if not great defence.

What the team needs more than anything is a top end center. If they pick first I would be very surprised if they did not choose RNH.

 

[Fourier]

And their's a 52% chance of someone else drafting 1st overall.

The response was to a comment that suggested that because the 30th team had kept the pick of late that that somehow meant it was much more likley to flip this year. I am not sure how your response relates to that comment.

 

[Korpse]

Top centers rarely hit free agency and almost never get traded. It's much easier to aquire top Dmen. Just ask the Flyers(Pronger and Timonen) and Bruins(Chara and Kaberle).

Of the top 20 centers(in points) only Joe Thornton, Brad Richards and Mike Ribeiro have been moved since the lockout. Thornton was rare blockbuster and Richards was a victim of the cap but Riberio wasn't the player he is today. What are the odds of Crosby, Stamkos, Backstrom, Sedin, Kopitar, Tavares, Toews, Staal, Getzlaf or Richards getting moved in the next 5-10 years? Not very good.

Of the top 20 Dmen in points, 9 of them have changed teams since the lockout. 10 if you include Jack Johnson. Plus it looks like Liles' days in Colorado are coming to an end and there have been rumors that Weber may leave Nashville when he's a UFA.

The problem is you are going by stats and going by stats of one year. Scott Gomez, Daniel Briere, Chris Drury were all top Centers in the year (same year for all three) they switched teams. Pronger, Timonen and Chara were victims of the cap so if you say Richards is a victim of the cap you have to include those guys as well.

 

[SympathyForTheDevils]

Hopkins weight worries me - the Oilers are a butter soft injury prone team and picking Hopkins just adds a smurf to a team full of smurfs.

And all the arguments against taking Larsson because defensemen take longer to develop is really just another reason to draft him. The Oilers need an elite defenseman BADLY, this roster just BLEEDS goals against and Larsson might not help with that right away, but a bunch of potential #4 defensemen does not = a surefire #1 defenseman. Oil fans should look no further than the 2006 playoffs to see how important a #1 defenseman is. I can't believe this is an argument, really.

Hey if Larsson isn't the BPA then by all means I hope they pick Hopkins.

The 2006 playoffs?

The playoffs where a team whose top pairing was Bret Hedican-Aaron Ward beat a team led by future HOFer Chris Pronger? Not a great example. The 2006 playoffs illustrated that having a no 1 defenceman is important, just as important as having a great center like Eric Staal or a great goalie like Cam Ward.

Given a choice between a forward and a D of similar talent and upside, I would take the forward every time, for a multitude of reasons.

I'd say that the Oilers shouldn't draft by need, but that team needs talented players at every position, so it would be a bit pointless. Neither Larsson or RNH will make that team significantly better next year.

 

[arsmaster*]

The 2006 playoffs?

The playoffs where a team whose top pairing was Bret Hedican-Aaron Ward beat a team led by future HOFer Chris Pronger? Not a great example. The 2006 playoffs illustrated that having a no 1 defenceman is important, just as important as having a great center like Eric Staal or a great goalie like Cam Ward.

Given a choice between a forward and a D of similar talent and upside, I would take the forward every time, for a multitude of reasons.

I'd say that the Oilers shouldn't draft by need, but that team needs talented players at every position, so it would be a bit pointless. Neither Larsson or RNH will make that team significantly better next year.

Yeah the year where Pronger dragged a team on his back for 4 rounds and should have been Conn Smythe on the losing team, he was that impactful.

The Oilers got their timely production from other sources, but Pronger was DOMINANT the most dominant performance I have seen from a defensman in the NHL playoffs in recent memory.

I get what your point though.

 

[Devils1029]

They go with RNH with their first overall and then take Jamie Oleksiak with the 2nd 1st rounder...in a few years, they'll have the twin towers on the back line with Oleksiak and Marincin,,,, and Petry to boot.

 

[Wheatking]

The problem is you are going by stats and going by stats of one year. Scott Gomez, Daniel Briere, Chris Drury were all top Centers in the year (same year for all three) they switched teams. Pronger, Timonen and Chara were victims of the cap so if you say Richards is a victim of the cap you have to include those guys as well.

I think you can still see my point. It's much more likely to get a top defenseman than a #1 center. I didn't use Gomez. Briere and Drury because I didn't feel like going through out each year. If I was to go year to year I'm sure we'd find even more defensemen that had been moved too.

Even look at the Oilers trades and signings. Pitkanen, Souray and Visnovsky have all come and gone over the last few years. They all came to Edmonton while they were considered high profile Dmen. The Oilers haven't had a legit #1 center since Doug Weight left 10 years ago.

 

[Korpse]

I think you can still see my point. It's much more likely to get a top defenseman than a #1 center. I didn't use Gomez. Briere and Drury because I didn't feel like going through out each year. If I was to go year to year I'm sure we'd find even more defensemen that had been moved too.

Even look at the Oilers trades and signings. Pitkanen, Souray and Visnovsky have all come and gone over the last few years. They all came to Edmonton while they were considered high profile Dmen. The Oilers haven't had a legit #1 center since Doug Weight left 10 years ago.

I think there is a gap in what we consider top defensemen. In my opinion they both are hard to aquire but the difference is #1 centers are not as rare as top defensemen.

I thinks its best to go with Larsson as top defensemen are more rare and with a supporting cast of Gagner, Hall, Eberle, Paajarvi etc. An elite center is not needed, even an abover average 2nd liner will look nice along Hall.

 

[Avsfanftw]

your just hoping the avs get Larsson

 

[DwightKSchrute]

I dont think they can pass on Larsson.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

I can't see the Oil letting Larsson get by them.


Yes Hall-RNH-Eberle is a top line worth salivating about. But then the top defence pairing is only Whitney-Gilbert and with not much in the way of legit top end talent behind that: Marincin is nice, and is a bluechipper, but he's not a full out guarantee.

Hall-Gagner-Eberle is still a nice top line, however Whitney-Larsson is a massive upgrade.


Hall-Gagner-Eberle
Paajarvi-Horcoff-Hemsky
Jones-Reasoner-Ward/I]
Hartikainen-Reddox-Omark

Whitney-Larsson
Smid-Gilbert
Peckham-Teubert

The balence Larsson brings is too much to turn away from compared to the top heaviness of RNH.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Hall-Gagner-Eberle
Paajarvi-Horcoff-Hemsky
Jones-Reasoner-Ward/I]
Hartikainen-Reddox-Omark

that's brutal center depth...we've become the Blue Jackets

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

I could see the take RNH with all the stud defensemen of next years draft

this

grab RNH this year and take one of Murray, or Reinhart next year

 

[Wheatking]

I think there is a gap in what we consider top defensemen. In my opinion they both are hard to aquire but the difference is #1 centers are not as rare as top defensemen.

I thinks its best to go with Larsson as top defensemen are more rare and with a supporting cast of Gagner, Hall, Eberle, Paajarvi etc. An elite center is not needed, even an abover average 2nd liner will look nice along Hall.

No offense but is this one of those conversations where you're going to play stupid just to prove a point? Do I really need to thoroughly explain every point so there's nothing can be taken out of context and turned around or can we just use some common sense? That's an honest question and sounds more harsh than it's supposed to be. I'm not saying you're stupid or trying to insult you. I'm just trying to figure out if you're playing some kind of game here.

OBVIOUSLY Pitkanen and Souray weren't top Dmen but they were high profile Dman that the Oilers were able to acquire. In July 2007 Pit.anen was one year removed from putting up 46 points in 58 games as a 22 year old. People thought he could potentially win a Norris someday. When the Oilers signed Souray he was coming off a season where he scored 26 goals, was an All Star and set the record for most powerplay goals from a Dman in a season.

...and look at Visnovsky. He leads all Dmen in points. He was acquired at last seasons deadline with a few more years left on his contract. Byfuglien is 4th and he was traded. The Canucks have one of the most impressive groups of Dmen in the league. Ehrhoff and Hamhuis weren't there a couple seasons ago. Gonchar hit free agency last summer. The Canadiens let Streit walk. Boyle was traded. Pronger has been traded 3 times since the lockout. Erik Johnson was drafted 1st overall and he was just traded. Phaneuf was traded. JayBo's rights were traded. Rafalski was signed as a UFA.

It shouldn't even be debatable. It's much easier to acquire top Dmen than it is to acquire a #1 center.

As for the Oilers...they have some decent defensive prospects. They have absolutely zero centermen with top 6 potential. They have some decent bottom 6 centermen like Lander, Pitlick, Vende Velde and O'Marra but Sam Gagner is probably the only young center in the entire system that could play on the top 2 lines. They can't ride Horcoff forever.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

that's brutal center depth...we've become the Blue Jackets

Yes and no.

I was aiming low going after Reasoner but I see him as a guy the Oil could legitamitley sign. I would still like them to go after a guy like Belanger or Handzus for the 3rd line centre instead, but I don't see the team luring them in (much like Malhotra last year). At least with bring in Reasoner there's a little more balance to the centre core. Reasoner can lead a PK unit, an area the team desperately needs help, and he is a face off ace.

I'll agree I'm not a fan of the centre depth, but all 4 guys can succeed in the roles given to them. Gagner and Horcoff can play the role of puck distributor for the high end wingers, which is all we need them to do. Reasoner a legit 3rd line centre, and while I don't like the prospect of Reddox at centre, he's the best stopgap for Lander, plus he does have great chemistry with Omark, and I could see that 4th line being a nice energy line, as all play with a lot of jump and cycle well.

 

[Korpse]

No offense but is this one of those conversations where you're going to play stupid just to prove a point? Do I really need to thoroughly explain every point so there's nothing can be taken out of context and turned around or can we just use some common sense? That's an honest question and sounds more harsh than it's supposed to be.

OBVIOUSLY Pitkanen and Souray weren't top Dmen but they were high profile Dman that the Oilers were able to acquire. In July 2007 Pit.anen was one year removed from putting up 46 points in 58 games as a 22 year old. People thought he could potentially win a Norris someday. When the Oilers signed Souray he was coming off a season where he scored 26 goals, was an All Star and set the record for most powerplay goals from a Dman in a season.

...and look at Visnovsky. He leads all Dmen in points. He was acquired at last seasons deadline with a few more years left on his contract. Byfuglien is 4th and he was traded. The Canucks have one of the most impressive groups of Dmen in the league. Ehrhoff and Hamhuis weren't there a couple seasons ago. Gonchar hit free agency last summer. The Canadiens let Streit walk. Boyle was traded. Pronger has been traded 3 times since the lockout. Erik Johnson was drafted 1st overall and he was just traded. Phaneuf was traded. JayBo's rights were traded. Rafalski was signed as a UFA.

It shouldn't even be debatable. It's much easier to acquire top Dmen than it is to acquire a #1 center.

As for the Oilers...they have some decent defensive prospects. They have absolutely zero centermen with top 6 potential. They have some decent bottom 6 centermen like Lander, Pitlick, Vende Velde and O'Marra but Sam Gagner is probably the only young center in the entire system that could play on the top 2 lines. They can't ride Horcoff forever.

Ralfalski, Pronger and Timonen are the only ones I consider top defensemen out of the ones you mentioned and as I said earlier there is a gap in how we define a top defensmen. I don't consider Ehrhoff, Byfuglien, Hamhuis, Boyle, Streit top defensemen. Gonchar was once a top defensemen. Erik Johnson has potential to be a top defensemen. Phanuef had promise but his game dropped off before he was traded. Visnovsky and Boyle are debateable. IMO.

Look beyond statistics.