The Offseason Thread (Previously Retool vs Rebuild)

Rebuild or Retool?


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EspenK

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Sep 25, 2011
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Interesting. Maybe Jarmo should try something like this with Seth. I'm sure that Jarmo will be in touch with JP Barry. Will likely be a feudal attempt, but he's got to try.

Well, not necessarily so if he deals with the Knights...:sarcasm:
 
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Fro

Cheatin on CBJ w TBL
Mar 11, 2009
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The Beach, FL
Laine-Roslovic-Bjorkstrand
Hofmann-Tex?-Nyquist
or
Laine-Roslovic-Bjorstrand
Nyquist-Tex?-Atkinson

When Domi comes back where does he go?

Chinakov? Bemstrom? 3rd liners? My guess is one becomes a 4th.

Lots of moving pieces. Laine to the third line? better trade him if that is the case.

Hopefully Larsen is fully versed in line-o-matic strategies.
My guess is a couple of those middle 6 wings are packaged with a late 1st to upgrade somewhere
 
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VT

Registered User
Jan 24, 2021
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Laine-Roslovic-Bjorkstrand
Hofmann-Tex?-Nyquist
or
Laine-Roslovic-Bjorstrand
Nyquist-Tex?-Atkinson

When Domi comes back where does he go?

Chinakov? Bemstrom? 3rd liners? My guess is one becomes a 4th.

Lots of moving pieces. Laine to the third line? better trade him if that is the case.

Hopefully Larsen is fully versed in line-o-matic strategies.
It depends on the role of the lines. The fact that someone is in the third line doesn`t mean that he has to be a grinder / focus specially on defense. In addition, we must not forget about PP.

Hofmann... nobody knows how he will play. NHL isn't NLA with big hockey rinks, not so good defense and goalie.

My lines (without Domi and possible new players, lines aren't according sequence):

Laine--Roslovic--Bemstrom
Nyqyuist--Texier--Bjorkstrand
Robinson--Stenlund--Atkinson
Hofmann--Jenner--Foudy

If any changes the centers would be a problem. I really don`t know whom write there.

Chinakhov... maybe some games in AHL would help him but ... Simply the camp will shows player's qualities.

P.S. a not hockey question. In the words: The lines according to ...sequence or order? Thank you.
 
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KJ Dangler

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Oct 21, 2006
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And we have the cap to go big especially if we trade Seth & don't have warm fuzzies about Zach.
Overpay for Hamilton if you have to... go to Zach and he needs to commit ot hes traded with Jones. The assets we get for Werenski, Jones, 3 1st rounders this year , Trade Korpi... your looking at the ability to infuse a massive amount of talent into this organization
 

Viqsi

"that chick from Ohio"
Oct 5, 2007
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Just recently, Carey Price became the first player with a cap hit of over 10 millions to win a playoff round. And he had to stand on his head like crazy to do it. They had a bit of luck to win another round quite easily thanks to the Scheifele suspension and key Jets injuries but I think you see where I'm coming from. Overpaying players isn't a receipe for success. If they don't buy into what you're trying to achieve, say goodbye. Might hurt at times and that's what the Bluejackets are experiencing now but overpaying just doesn't work. I think Kekalainen is well aware of it. Cap is flat and once you overpay for one guy, nobody is gonna be prepared to accept a discount. Gotta do it like the Bolts and have players buy into what you're trying to achieve. So no to Marner. Besides that, he's soft as f*** and the eye test says he's not at all good defensively. Anyway, the Leafs already said he's not gonna go anywhere so it's not worth talking about.
"Defensive" play gets evaluatated several different ways. He might not be your best choice in a scrum in the defensive zone, but solid positionining as a supporting forward and being so damn good at puck management and transition that the oppsoition hardly ever gets the chance to be in the defensive zone makes up for a lot.

* * *​
So all the stats are wrong and what you see is right?
More that the stats are measuring something else. It's bizarre to me how some hobbyist analytics folks seem to, when their models undervalue playmaking forwards as compared to triggermen, acknowledge this and recognize it as a shortcoming, and then they turn around and act like their models assigning exceedingly high value to highly-transitional mobile defensive play and greatly devaluing stay-at-home good-in-their-zone defensive play represents The True Way Of Things. There's an implicit bias in there, and while some folks do at least recognize that it's unavoidable because the latter doesn't have enough measurable events to properly quantify, some folks seem to be all "well, if it's not quantifiable, it doesn't exist" and come up with all sorts of strange rationalizations to justify it.

In Marner's case, his play style is one that hobbyist-level analytics favors - he's a mobile transition guy - and so analytics guys can easily conclude he's elite defensively. The toughness-biased eye test, on the other hand, is liable to see him not throwing his weight around and thereby conclude he's just not defensively capable. Both are almost certainly wrong, and playing into their own biases - it's just easier to attribute same with the eye test.

The key is recognizing what is and is not presently precisely measured with publicly available raw data. Crossing the line with the puck is. Shot attempts when a given defender is on the ice is. Heck, the location of the origin of a shot attempt when a given defender is on the ice is (and that was a huge recent advance; it's why the concept of shot quality is now being measured and taken seriously rather than written off as being "meaningless" like the hangers-on used to insist a few short years ago). Boxing out an approaching attacker isn't. (But I wouldn't be surprised if proprietary analytics has a way to approximate that, and I also wouldn't be surprised if the hobbyists are working on a way to make that happen.) Hits that successfully lead to puck turnover and a counterattack... well, I think they could be, but I don't know if they actually are. (I would love to see hit location and resulting puck possession changes tracked as a means of gauging the effectiveness of one's physical play.) Stuff like that.
 

EspenK

Registered User
Sep 25, 2011
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4,150
Tend to agree with this. Rebuilding teams don't splash out $9M per on UFAs. If this is truly a "down to the studs" rebuild, let's do it right. Signing Hamilton indicates we're ok continuing to pick in the 15-20 range every year.


A rebuild has to start somewhere. We definitely have the cap to spend. I am not sure Carolina is tired of him just that the owner there maintains a tight checkbook. I also don't think that he alone gets us to the 15-20 range. Tough decision for Jarmo but I would guess he will go somewhere with better near term prospects or give Carolina a hometown discount to stay.
 
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Hinterland

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Every team that gets him gets tired of him. This will be team #4 before he's 29. Gotta be a reason

This guy couldn't play defense to save his dear life. And his soft as f***, despite his size. Allergic to contact, sometimes even looks scared. Gets targeted every time during playoffs because everybody knows he's gonna mess up. Remember when Ovechkin bullied him in that playoff series? Tells you everything you need to know. Loaded with talent but overall just not a good player.
 

Viqsi

"that chick from Ohio"
Oct 5, 2007
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Those ridiculous “stats” don’t show what people claim they show.
They show something really damn useful, but they don't show everything. They can't; not everything is publicly availably measured in a quantifiable way.

I kind of suspect there's a nomenclature issue going on here - is "defensive play" strictly play in the defensive zone, or is it any means by which goals scored against are prevented? I can easily understand why one might assume the latter makes more sense (the goal of defense is ultimately to, well, prevent goals), and so I get to some extent why folks would overlook the former. But what goes unappreciated is that there's a bias in there towards event measurability that doesn't allow for situations like "who do you badly want in your corner when things DO break down"? Because they do and will break down, and while transitional prevention is definitely quite good at minimizing the occurrence of such things, you also need to be prepared to respond well when they happen anyways. Otherwise you end up with a team that looks flashy and amazing but as soon as there's any slipup the opposition seems to always capitalize...

...huh, that sure sounds a whole heck of a lot like the Leafs, now, doesn't it? ;)
 

Viqsi

"that chick from Ohio"
Oct 5, 2007
53,660
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40N 83W (approx)
Y'know, now that I think about it, it makes me start wondering if perhaps there's some sort of Vast Conspiracy out there to try to make play more exciting in appearance by insisting All Defense Is Transition-Based, thus making things stay highly mobile while still ensuring plenty of goals are scored...

oh g-d they're coming for me wait no THEY'RE ALREADY HERE YOU CAN DO WHAT YOU LIKE TO ME BUT YOU CAN'T SUPPRESS THE TRU


please stand by


Ha ha! I'm such a kidder. Forget all that nonsense up there. Everything is perfectly normal. Yes. Perfectly normal.
 

VT

Registered User
Jan 24, 2021
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This guy couldn't play defense to save his dear life. And his soft as f***, despite his size. Allergic to contact, sometimes even looks scared. Gets targeted every time during playoffs because everybody knows he's gonna mess up. Remember when Ovechkin bullied him in that playoff series? Tells you everything you need to know. Loaded with talent but overall just not a good player.
Thewhole problem is to find a d-man.
UFA: D. Hamilton, M. Staal, R. Murray, A. Larsson, A. Martinez, J. Oleksiak, J. Hakanpaa...
RFA: besides Dahlin, Heiskanen and Makar nobody too interesting. And get them.... the elephant learns to fly soon.
 
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Viqsi

"that chick from Ohio"
Oct 5, 2007
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All of the silliness aside, tho, I do think Marner would be a very valuable potential acquisition, assuming we're trying to do a "quick bounceback" plan. Transitional defense is still useful defense; you just can't go with it exclusively. Doing so would be be like trying to build an offense with nothing but playmakers - eventually somebody's got to be able to take the shot. Yes, it's great to be able to have guys who can do all of those things all at once, but those players - colloquially referred to as "superstars" - are a tad uncommon.

My sole reservation with him would be that I'm not sure if "quick bounceback" is realistically doable.
 
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Cyclones Rock

Registered User
Jun 12, 2008
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TFP lists us as one potential spot


I'm surprised more teams don't do this with UFAs. It would seem to me to increase the chances of signing or create a much higher probability of a sign and trade deal and its asset return-as the tweet pointed out I think.
 

Jive Pawnbroker

One day next week
Feb 18, 2009
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I'm kind of torn between going after a UFA like Hamilton or not in our situation. I'm inclined to say no to that approach but I recall a situation in baseball where it was a great move. Being a Tigers fan, I recall them signing Pudge Rodriguez after the 2003 season which I thought was a joke at the time since they had just come off of a season where they had lost 119 games. The team did improve to a couple of 70 win seasons and then went to the World Series in 2006 with Pudge being a big reason why.
 
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