The Official Tank Thread III

[Pavels Dog]

* Significant decline in success
* Many underwhelming draft picks
* Far fewer trades than the rest of the league, including zero impact trades
* A stubborn insistence on retaining role players at excessive cost/term
* Even after falling out of contention, continuing to load up on average to mediocre veterans, rather than letting kids with legit potential get more ice time

Most of that boils down to one thing; being a good team that drafts late for 20+ years and therefore struggles to replace core players.
And most of that will start solving itself when we find some new elite players.

When we find better kids, they will start getting more icetime than the "mediocre veterans" at an earlier time. We've already seen this with Larkin. Trades are unlikely to ever be something Holland uses much, but it's a different position to be sitting on many draft picks, prospects taken in the top 10 of the draft and be the GM of a non-playoff team trying to change things up rather than the position he's had in the past. And when 1 or 2 or 3 young players start emerging as elite/core pieces, we won't be able to afford guys like Abdelkader or Ericsson. I mean the list of players that wouldn't have contracts with the Wings if we had landed Suter/Parise/Stamkos is pretty long.

There's not much Holland can do this offseason to make this into a playoff team unless we see a massive internal improvement on the side of coaching and some young players. I think it's absolutely the right thing to send a message that they want to make the playoffs, because you want kids like Larkin/AA/Mantha/etc to go into the offseason with that goal in mind. You want them to go into Game 1 with a mindset to win. Let's wait and see what Holland actually does this offseason. If he starts trading prospects and picks I'll become concerned.

 

[jkutswings]

Most of that boils down to one thing; being a good team that drafts late for 20+ years and therefore struggles to replace core players.
And most of that will start solving itself when we find some new elite players.

I keep hearing from the anti-rebuild crowd about how great picks can be found later in the draft.

And even when drafting late, when a team has decent wingers coming out of their ears, but can't draft a good defenseman to save their life...that's a factor of poor asset management, not poor draft stock.

And nobody held a gun to anybody's head, saying that, just because you don't have a Crosby or a McDavid, that you have to give an Abdelkader seven years. Let the depth guys walk if it comes to that, and use that cap space to make a more meaningful move, even if it's not until the deadline or the following off season.

When we find better kids, they will start getting more icetime than the "mediocre veterans" at an earlier time. We've already seen this with Larkin. Trades are unlikely to ever be something Holland uses much, but it's a different position to be sitting on many draft picks, prospects taken in the top 10 of the draft and be the GM of a non-playoff team trying to change things up rather than the position he's had in the past. And when 1 or 2 or 3 young players start emerging as elite/core pieces, we won't be able to afford guys like Abdelkader or Ericsson. I mean the list of players that wouldn't have contracts with the Wings if we had landed Suter/Parise/Stamkos is pretty long.

But isn't that kinda saying, "Holland will stop making bad decisions when he starts making better decisions"? Again, just because I don't have the next elite players, didn't mean I have to overpay ok players.

Let's wait and see what Holland actually does this offseason. If he starts trading prospects and picks I'll become concerned.

No argument there.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

This concerns mostly the team rather than the organization as a whole.

I guess I misunderstood the question.

For me the organization is the team. I at least have some idea as to how that is managed and performing. I have no idea what the internal operations are like.

 

[HIFE]

If this were 2012, I'd be right there with you.

But since then, we've seen 5 years of an obvious decline in success, to the point that the team had no chance at getting anywhere near a championship, and were even heavy underdogs in the first round.

Now does that mean Detroit should have found an elite player by now? No. But I'm not frustrated with the front office simply because of the caliber of talent that has been added to the team over the last several years via the draft. It's the cumulative effect of:

* Significant decline in success
* Many underwhelming draft picks
* Far fewer trades than the rest of the league, including zero impact trades
* A stubborn insistence on retaining role players at excessive cost/term
* Even after falling out of contention, continuing to load up on average to mediocre veterans, rather than letting kids with legit potential get more ice time

Had there not been the Clearys and Legwands, and had there not been years on end of not managing to trade for a defenseman, and had there not been the bloated contracts...By itself, I'd have very little to complain about with Detroit's draft record.

But as people have said before, it's death by a thousand cuts, and all the factors get wrapped up in each other, into one giant mess of frustration.

So now, after having missed the playoffs altogether, and looking like a team that needs a major rebuild...If this front office goes back to the same well of risk-averse, low-ceiling, sneak-into-the-playoffs-and-anything-can-happen thinking ONCE AGAIN...

...I'll have no faith that this franchise will ever be great again until there's a major housecleaning.

And it's a huge shame, because I grew up loving this team, even before The Streak ever started. So I really really hope the philosophy meets reality before they head down the path that returns to the days of giving away a car at each home game to get fans to show up.

Great post, very well said. I'd agree the frustration from most is witnessing a decline the last 5 years while management appears to live in denial. A rebuild on the fly could have been implemented but the execution was half-hearted. 95% of fans and the organization themselves stated every year we needed an impact D but it never materialized. Sad the last years of prime Z and Datsyuk were pissed away by not fully committing. Letting Hudler walk (who went on to lead Calagary) then signing Alfredsson and Weiss really was the death nell. Samuelsson returning and the trade for Quincey we could have held a funeral because the Wings were done. In 2017 Holland claims they want to "build from within" but the philosophy should have already been in place years ago. At this point I don't trust/believe a word he says.

There is reason for concern even if the Wings don't trade away picks or prospects. We didn't buy at the deadline last year...only because we had no space! The entire direction feels so lost and out of touch with reality that's whats ridiculous to watch go on. If Suter wouldn't play here or Phaneuf/Edler/Bouwmeester weren't in the cards then burn the house down and explain to the fans. Instead we've settled and fans have had the wool pulled over their eyes. Cole, Zidlicky, and Legwand for a playoff run? GTHO. Settling in life leads to nothing but despair- the word I would use to describe the state of the Red Wings compared to the majority of the NHL.

 

[Red Stanley]

I keep hearing from the anti-rebuild crowd about how great picks can be found later in the draft.

And even when drafting late, when a team has decent wingers coming out of their ears, but can't draft a good defenseman to save their life...that's a factor of poor asset management, not poor draft stock.

And nobody held a gun to anybody's head, saying that, just because you don't have a Crosby or a McDavid, that you have to give an Abdelkader seven years. Let the depth guys walk if it comes to that, and use that cap space to make a more meaningful move, even if it's not until the deadline or the following off season.


But isn't that kinda saying, "Holland will stop making bad decisions when he starts making better decisions"? Again, just because I don't have the next elite players, didn't mean I have to overpay ok players.


No argument there.

Who's anti-rebuild? Can you name at least two so they can meet the bare minimum requirement for a crowd?

 

[jkutswings]

Who's anti-rebuild? Can you name at least two so they can meet the bare minimum requirement for a crowd?

My apologies. To rephrase, posters such as Dotter and Pavels Dog have thought that Detroit should not be placing heavy emphasis on long-term success, foregoing veteran signings to remain a cap team, and targeting high draft picks...Until the wheels have completely fallen off, and the team is already horrendous.

I believe the terminology used is that they want Detroit to first become 'organically bad', while using lower draft stock until that low point has fully arrived, rather than shifting priorities and assets more proactively, to hasten the time of rebuilding.

Now maybe everybody thinks the team has reached that point, and an earnest rebuild can begin. But throughout this season, the debate continued, and some wanted no part of rebuilding (yet).

 

[Pavels Dog]

And even when drafting late, when a team has decent wingers coming out of their ears, but can't draft a good defenseman to save their life...that's a factor of poor asset management, not poor draft stock.

And nobody held a gun to anybody's head, saying that, just because you don't have a Crosby or a McDavid, that you have to give an Abdelkader seven years. Let the depth guys walk if it comes to that, and use that cap space to make a more meaningful move, even if it's not until the deadline or the following off season.


But isn't that kinda saying, "Holland will stop making bad decisions when he starts making better decisions"? Again, just because I don't have the next elite players, didn't mean I have to overpay ok players.

All true, we've failed in terms of drafting D-men for a long time (hopefully that is starting to change) and he didn't have to sign secondary/supporting players because of a lack of elite talent. But I don't think going around with a bunch of empty cap space waiting for a "meaningful move" is something this ownership and GM are likely to do. We had cap space to go after Suter, we had cap space to go after Stamkos, and I very much doubt cap space has been the limiting factor in terms of not getting impact trades done.

I just look at the Wings as a cap ceiling team at all times. And the balance of where that money goes is currently leaning towards depth guys. Our core is getting cheaper, obviously much worse too. But eventually, maybe even soon, that core will start getting better and they'll still be cheap. Then you potentially have a quick turnaround as the depth in place helps the core. And as the core gets more expensive the depth is pushed out and you replace them with cheaper options. Your best chances to compete for cups is when your core is cheap and you're able to have good depth because of it, or when you have an established core but manage to put together good, cheap depth. Both windows of opportunity are potentially short, but the first window is one you may miss out on completely if you go with a rebuild that completely tears down the depth in order to focus only on establishing a core.

 

[Dotter]

Let's wait and see what Holland actually does this offseason. If he starts trading prospects and picks I'll become concerned.

I hope he trades our top pick + for Tavares. That would be a dream! Especially in such a weak draft where the best play available might be a 2nd or 3rd liner at best.

But yeah, if he starts trading important pieces for washed up vets, I'll start feeling concerned. However he's never done that before. He's never traded anyone that was worth keeping for plugs. Not sure why people think it's suddenly a concern now.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

All true, we've failed in terms of drafting D-men for a long time (hopefully that is starting to change) and he didn't have to sign secondary/supporting players because of a lack of elite talent. But I don't think going around with a bunch of empty cap space waiting for a "meaningful move" is something this ownership and GM are likely to do. We had cap space to go after Suter, we had cap space to go after Stamkos, and I very much doubt cap space has been the limiting factor in terms of not getting impact trades done.

I just look at the Wings as a cap ceiling team at all times. And the balance of where that money goes is currently leaning towards depth guys. Our core is getting cheaper, obviously much worse too. But eventually, maybe even soon, that core will start getting better and they'll still be cheap. Then you potentially have a quick turnaround as the depth in place helps the core. And as the core gets more expensive the depth is pushed out and you replace them with cheaper options. Your best chances to compete for cups is when your core is cheap and you're able to have good depth because of it, or when you have an established core but manage to put together good, cheap depth. Both windows of opportunity are potentially short, but the first window is one you may miss out on completely if you go with a rebuild that completely tears down the depth in order to focus only on establishing a core.

I can remove any doubt. Cap space has NEVER been a limiting factor on basically any move... at least any more than the Wings wanting Toronto to retain on Phaneuf for that potential trade way back when. I mean, the Wings had a boatload of cap space for Suter. They had enough space to look at landing Jay Bouwmeester and his 6.6M cap from Calgary. They had offers on the table for Niskanen, Boyle, etc. for big dollars. They had over $10M free to chase Stamkos this past offseason.

That's not to say that the Wings have unlimited space or that long term deals to Abby, Helm, etc. are not concerning, but cap space has not limited them in terms of what they have been able to do. Not having assets other teams want in trade has done that.

The only time a cap related issue really bit them was when Datsyuk signed a 35+ contract that was frontloaded and he came out and boned them with it... Seriously, if Datsyuk were the slightest bit up front with the Wings before signing that deal, there is never a need to pawn off his deal to Phoenix.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

I hope he trades our top pick + for Tavares. That would be a dream! Especially in such a weak draft where the best play available might be a 2nd or 3rd liner at best.

But yeah, if he starts trading important pieces for washed up vets, I'll start feeling concerned. However he's never done that before. He's never traded anyone that was worth keeping for plugs. Not sure why people think it's suddenly a concern now.

If the best player is that... why on this or any other Earth would the Islanders take a millisecond to think about the deal? Other than to maybe write it down so that their ownership could call someone else to say "You'll never believe what Detroit just tried to offer me" to win a long standing bet about the worst deal they've ever heard.

 

[jkutswings]

If the best player is that... why on this or any other Earth would the Islanders take a millisecond to think about the deal? Other than to maybe write it down so that their ownership could call someone else to say "You'll never believe what Detroit just tried to offer me" to win a long standing bet about the worst deal they've ever heard.

Yeah, I'm not sure why Dotter bashes on this draft class to that extent.

Sure, there isn't an obvious heir apparent to the next phenomenon of the league, but I'd be very surprised if both Patrick and Hischier didn't both jump straight to the NHL, and each score at least 40 points in their respective rookie seasons. That's getting 2nd line production right out of the gate, with likely odds of significant improvement from there over the next few years.

I'd sooner bet that the top 10 of this draft eventually produces 2-3 All Stars, than to say that nobody will ever pan out better than a 2nd line player.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

If you dont need high draft position to draft high impact players, how can you then turn around and use our draft position to excuse away our inability to draft high impact players?

I mean stick to a theory, you should never have an opinion but also be so eager to excuse it away

the DRW are NOT good at drafting late anymore

since zetterberg thousands of players have been drafted after pick 20 and we have YET to find one High impact player out of that bunch. That means either poor scouting our poor philosophy or both

it doesnt matter how many other teams have found either, because if your theory is the DRW can do it, you must use the DRW only as your basis and nobody else

 

[Ezekial]

Just because we haven't turned 3rd and forth rounders into Datsyuks and Zetterbergs doesn't mean Wings suck at late round drafting. Finding players like AA, Tatar, Nyquist, etc in the 3+ is pretty awesome value.

 

[njx9]

Just because we haven't turned 3rd and forth rounders into Datsyuks and Zetterbergs doesn't mean Wings suck at late round drafting. Finding players like AA, Tatar, Nyquist, etc in the 3+ is pretty awesome value.

It's great value if you need middle-6 wingers or depth players. It's just not all that helpful when you're simultaneously missing out on 1Cs and top pairing defensemen that most of the rest of the league has been able to hit on at least once in the last two decades.

I don't want to downplay the depth drafting that really helped the team stay competitive for years, but until the team starts identifying non-middle 6 wingers in later rounds, it's just not particularly relevant to the current trajectory of the team.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

Just because we haven't turned 3rd and forth rounders into Datsyuks and Zetterbergs doesn't mean Wings suck at late round drafting. Finding players like AA, Tatar, Nyquist, etc in the 3+ is pretty awesome value.

You don't win because of Tatar or nyquist.

If you font feel you need high end stars to win ( datsyuk, yzerman, lidstroms, federovs, etc) ok that's your argument and the multiple examples of recent proof are x, y and z.

That is how you frame an argument against drafting high, otherwise one looks ill informed

 

[Retire91]

It seems pretty clear to me that the organization was banking on finding the next Lidstrom, Daytsuk, and Zetterberg through the late draft.

The great disappointment for me more so than that not happening was that in substitution a continuous stream of aging vets and mediocrity has been summoned to fill the gap instead of just throwing in the towel and doing an actual rebuild. That has been a major turnoff as a fan and has also been a predictable and major failure using any measurement technique known to hockey.

I still think the one thing we got going for us is Mrazek developing to his ceiling. Having a top 5 goalie can do wonders to a weak roster. I have lost some hope on that with his performance but have not completely given up. See I do still have hope.

I have completely lost faith in this front office and ownership to build a contender. Illiches and Holland were successful when money wasn't capped and they struck lightning to remain successful post cap. But without luck they have not demonstrated any competence in building a legit contender

I hope that can change and I am holding on to that change but the truth is the last 1/5th of the playoff streak has been a complete waste when it could have been used to do a legit rebuild and go into the new building an actual contender. Instead we got 5 seasons of crap hockey, followed by how many more seasons of denial and crap hockey.

 

[Bondurant]

There's great player to be found in the later rounds but how often can one team find the gems year after year? Wings are clearly suffering from long term lack of higher picks. Especially in the cap era.

 

[SirloinUB]

You don't win because of Tatar or nyquist.

As an aside to your point, for every Zetterberg/Crosby Conn Smythe there is a Johan Franzen or Karl Hagelin having a coming out party.

I agree you absolutely need stars but equally true you need quality depth players rising to the occasion playing like a borderline star them self.

One thing that the Penguins made abundantly clear 2010-2015 is you cant win it on sheer star power alone.

 

[Retire91]

What you say is true but the multiple elite stars in their prime needed to win the cup are the hardest part to acquire. Developing a team of the role players needed to be competitive without the elite stars is a receipt for failure.

Get the elite stars then plug in the pieces. Plugging in the pieces is the easier part and a part that Holland is good at. Its the getting elite stars that he doesn't know how to do in a CAP era.

Not having 2 or 3 legit elite players in their prime is a non starter.

A team full of good role players is also likely to keep you a bubble team preventing the high picks necessary to get elite talent. The basic definition of NHL purgatory.

 

[Ezekial]

You don't win because of Tatar or nyquist.

If you font feel you need high end stars to win ( datsyuk, yzerman, lidstroms, federovs, etc) ok that's your argument and the multiple examples of recent proof are x, y and z.

That is how you frame an argument against drafting high, otherwise one looks ill informed

Literally no one says this ****.

I said the wings don't suck at late round drafting just because we haven't found a superstar there this millennium. But hyperbole is your MO so it doesn't surprise me that you didn't catch it.

 

[jkutswings]

Literally no one says this ****.

I said the wings don't suck at late round drafting just because we haven't found a superstar there this millennium. But hyperbole is your MO so it doesn't surprise me that you didn't catch it.

But that's the point.

Yes, Detroit has been good at finding complimentary pieces throughout the draft. Good! Hopefully that strength will continue to serve them well.

However, they've also been looking for diamonds in a copper mine, so to speak. Meaning, that it's no longer realistic to think that, in addition to the good secondary scoring and depth players they're finding, that sooner or later they'll "run into one", and find the next elite player to build around as well, without also having top-5 picks to try and find said elite players.

I want to start looking for diamonds in a diamond mine (the very top of the draft). And I'd rather stink for 3 or 5 or 10 years until they find some diamonds, than keep looking in the copper mine, and hope to watch another first round exit.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

Literally no one says this ****.

I said the wings don't suck at late round drafting just because we haven't found a superstar there this millennium. But hyperbole is your MO so it doesn't surprise me that you didn't catch it.

It's been twenty years since they found one.

Thats enough time to say we can't do it

It's not hyperbole.. It's fact

If someone takes the position WE don't need to draft high because we drafted Benn, Keith, subban over the last decade outside the top 10 then one has a leg to stand on

Otherwise where's the factual content to their conclusion

 

[SirloinUB]

It's been twenty years since they found one.

Thats enough time to say we can't do it

It's not hyperbole.. It's fact

If someone takes the position WE don't need to draft high because we drafted Benn, Keith, subban over the last decade outside the top 10 then one has a leg to stand on

Otherwise where's the factual content to their conclusion

In an environment where you have 29 other competitors going after the same resources, you have to understand that the results won't always be there even if the ability is. For all you know, Subban and keith could have been the wings favourite players in the second round (and make no mistake, EVERYONE thought they were 2nd round talent, at best). The fact that they were gone before the wings picked doesn't indisputably prove the wings can't find these guys.

As for the real late round picks, I think you need to accept that whether it be Zetterberg or Benn, there is a great deal of luck involved. The fact that they haven't hit a hole-in-one in the 6th round for a while is not an indicator of ability (even Tiger Woods hasn't hit many hole-in-ones during tournament play.)

Conversely, What we do know is that Detroit has been able to keep their cupboards reasonably well stocked for 20+ years while trading many picks. This consistency is much reflective of their ability (to draft late) than catching catching lightening in a bottle with Z or Benn.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

In an environment where you have 29 other competitors going after the same resources, you have to understand that the results won't always be there even if the ability is. For all you know, Subban and keith could have been the wings favourite players in the second round (and make no mistake, EVERYONE thought they were 2nd round talent, at best). The fact that they were gone before the wings picked doesn't indisputably prove the wings can't find these guys.

As for the real late round picks, I think you need to accept that whether it be Zetterberg or Benn, there is a great deal of luck involved. The fact that they haven't hit a hole-in-one in the 6th round for a while is not an indicator of ability (even Tiger Woods hasn't hit many hole-in-ones during tournament play.)

Conversely, What we do know is that Detroit has been able to keep their cupboards reasonably well stocked for 20+ years while trading many picks. This consistency is much reflective of their ability (to draft late) than catching catching lightening in a bottle with Z or Benn.

OK see this is what I mean

I know its from a number of different posters so its not fair to lump them altogether but...

i seems 99% of posters feel inorder to win the cup(s) you need high end/star type players, fair?

so the ONLY question is this... how do you acquire such talent?

is it from drafting, trading or free agency? from there one needs to break it down further with examples, stats, historical data etc

for me and a # of other posters, we feel inorder to win you need high end/star level players and the best odds of getting them comes from the draft and within the draft it comes from picking high

I have yet to see a conclusive counter arguement to show why the DRW dont need to follow that model using recent(past 20 years) DRW based examples(players we have drafted since zetterberg that are high end/star level players to show why we dont need high picks )

 

[Ezekial]

That's fine but our draft history of late has more to do with position than ability, rather than both as you are suggesting.

We all know we need elite talent, few of us think KH is infallible, some of us understand his position and can differentiate whether or not a different gm would be asked to do what he is doing, and some of us are totally against anything and everything KH does. But we all agree we need elite talent on this roster, especially at center and defense.

I'm the type that will roll with the inevitable punches because I know Holland isn't going anywhere for now. I will subjectively take context of moves into consideration and complain accordingly, but I am generally not over the top grabbing pitchforks because I'm not much of a fan of yelling at clouds.

I'm less of a KH supporter than I was a year ago, but I still understand why he is GM.