The Official Tank Thread III

SirloinUB

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It's weird to see Devellano talk about not being able to replace Z and Datsyuk based on where we're drafting.

That said, whatever actually happens and whoever actually 'wins', it's nice to hear that someone in the front office realizes this might take a few years to turn around, and that signing a bunch of plugs to back into the playoffs isn't really good for the franchise.

I don't fault the organization for milking the playoff streak for as long as possible. Adding as much depth as possible to extend an unprecedented streak is a reasonable direction. Further, I don't fault the organization for prioritizing current success (playoffs, $$$, Culture) above future success.

Now that the weight of the streak has been removed, I would expect a change in approach however they should not blow the whole thing up.
 
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njx9

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I don't fault the organization for milking the playoff streak for as long as possible. Adding as much depth as possible to extend an unprecedented is a reasonable direction. Further, I don't fault the organization for prioritizing current success (playoffs, $$$, Culture) below future success.

Logically, I don't either. I disagree with it, but I get it.

Now that the weight of the streak has been removed, I would expect a change in approach however they should not blow the whole thing up.

I hope so, though Holland continues to say things that make me think his approach only temporarily changed, and that he'll be right back to the same thing (over-signing middling talent in the errant belief that the team is otherwise on the right track) as soon as the season ends. Maybe I'm too pessimistic.

And while I don't expect the team will blow anything up, I think there's a world of difference between blowing it up and reasonably abstaining in free agency (at least when the possibilities are of the Nielsen/Helm/Abdelkader variety).
 

AD1066

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I think 3 years is the very best possible rebuild if you are the most luckiest ******* in the world and can catch lighting in a bottle, even then I still have my doubts. I think realistically it could take as long as it took Oilers. And that is what should be expected. Figure if you tank, a franchise player should come along about every 5 to 10 years. But the question is... do you win the lottery and draft him, or are you drafting #5 -#10 that specific year?

I like how Ken Holland did 2016/17 season. And that was to sign UFA and shoot for the playoffs, and when the hope was gone, sold them for a million picks. While #1 overall is the dream, it's also less likely. Having seven 2md and 3rd rounders might snag you a franchise player nobody knew was going to develop (i.e., Duncan Keith).

While Oilers is proving what it takes to rebuild, TML is *may* possibly be on it's way what it might look like if you catch lightning in a bottle... even though they are lots a pieces away from being a true contender. What they've done could just as easily fall apart in the next few years.

During the past few months of the rebuild/tank discussion it's never been entirely clear to me what you're advocating as an alternative.

You're basically saying rebuilds take luck and nothing is guaranteed-- which is true --so we should instead continue to patch up a flawed roster with zero core/elite players in the hopes of icing a team mediocre enough to make the playoffs, while banking on one or more of our 2nd or 3rd round picks to become a franchise player?

It seems to me your approach requires far more luck and in all likelihood will lead to a longer period of time spent as a non-contender.
 

Lazlo Hollyfeld

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[Despite having a bevy of high draft picks, it took a generational player, Connor McDavid, to put the Oilers over the top]

"To some degree, when I arrived in 1982 to a bad franchise, when I got Yzerman in '83 in my first draft, it was night and day," Devellano said. "He made a big impact right away -- 39 goals as an 18-year-old. I don't think you can put time (frame) on things. There's some luck involved. By luck, I mean the ability to get that kind of franchise player - (Sidney) Crosby, McDavid, Yzerman, (Mario) Lemieux. You get that type of player and the rebuild moves quickly.

"But I'm told that player isn't in the draft this year (eek!) There are good players, but (not) the guy that moves the needle -- Sidney Crosby, Patrick Kane and (Jonathan) Toews coming in and all the sudden the team that was bad got good in a hurry.

"Truthfully, and I said I wouldn't put a time (frame) on it, it would be nice if you could accomplish something in three years. But you're going to need some luck."

- Jimmy D.

I think 3 years is the very best possible rebuild if you are the most luckiest ******* in the world and can catch lighting in a bottle, even then I still have my doubts. I think realistically it could take as long as it took Oilers. And that is what should be expected. Figure if you tank, a franchise player should come along about every 5 to 10 years. But the question is... do you win the lottery and draft him, or are you drafting #5 -#10 that specific year?

I like how Ken Holland did 2016/17 season. And that was to sign UFA and shoot for the playoffs, and when the hope was gone, sold them for a million picks. While #1 overall is the dream, it's also less likely. Having seven 2md and 3rd rounders might snag you a franchise player nobody knew was going to develop (i.e., Duncan Keith).

While Oilers is proving what it takes to rebuild, TML is *may* possibly be on it's way what it might look like if you catch lightning in a bottle... even though they are lots a pieces away from being a true contender. What they've done could just as easily fall apart in the next few years.

In referencing the Oilers, you're using the worst case scenario of what it takes to rebuild.

McDavid has obviously put them over the top but they also finally brought in a competent GM and good coach. The Oilers were bad for much longer than they should have been even without McDavid because of those two factors.

The Wings need franchise players for sure, but that doesn't mean they absolutely need a generational player like McDavid for a successful rebuild.
 

ShelbyZ

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IMO, it's too late for a rebuild and Hollands "10-15 years" of dread warning is probably more of a backhanded acceptance of the inevitable disguised as an excuse not to.

He slammed the window shut when he squandered the opportunity to draft a potential top 4 dman in exchange for the opportunity to try to surround Stamkos with a mediocre team. When that didn't work, it ultimately turned into a panic shackling of the team with $9M+ of Helm and Nielsens untradeable contracts for 5 seasons.

I think the current trajectory is for the Wings to become the 97-04 Rangers. Just a continual stream of overpaid and past prime vets, continually focusing on big attempts to land the top UFAs or trade targets, and a few feel good re-treads. Maybe Hudler and Filppula can come back like Messier. "'Member that Cup in 1994/2008? Yea I 'member!"
 

chances14

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oilers are an outlier when it comes to rebuilding. rebuilds do not take 10 years if you have competent management

hell, the longest playoff drought by any current team is the oilers at 10 years
 

Ezekial

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IMO, it's too late for a rebuild and Hollands "10-15 years" of dread warning is probably more of a backhanded acceptance of the inevitable disguised as an excuse not to.

He slammed the window shut when he squandered the opportunity to draft a potential top 4 dman in exchange for the opportunity to try to surround Stamkos with a mediocre team. When that didn't work, it ultimately turned into a panic shackling of the team with $9M+ of Helm and Nielsens untradeable contracts for 5 seasons.

I think the current trajectory is for the Wings to become the 97-04 Rangers. Just a continual stream of overpaid and past prime vets, continually focusing on big attempts to land the top UFAs or trade targets, and a few feel good re-treads. Maybe Hudler and Filppula can come back like Messier. "'Member that Cup in 1994/2008? Yea I 'member!"

In 5 years we could be sitting here saying Holland turned Datsyuk's contract into 2 top 4 defenseman. Granted there are some who are in the dumps about Cholowski's first ncaa season he still has potential, his skating and passing ability are still there.
 

Mister Ed

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A good comparaison would be St Louis Blues. After the 04-05 lockout, they missed the playoffs 3 years, lost 1 round, they missed out two years after that. Now look at where they are. Tarasenko (#16 overall), Pietrangelo (#4 overall), Allen (#34 overall) etc have put them on the map again and they are perennial powerhouses.

Lets just hope this team isn't the Calgary Flames (missed 6 out of 7 years from 09 to 16) or Columbus Blue Jackets (only made the playoff two years of their existence).
 
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SirloinUB

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oilers are an outlier when it comes to rebuilding. rebuilds do not take 10 years if you have competent management

hell, the longest playoff drought by any current team is the oilers at 10 years

Disagree.

6 different teams have experienced a playoff drought of 7+ years since the 04 lockout.

4 teams are currently on active droughts of 6+ years



Crazy enough, but the inept Avs make neither list.
 

ShelbyZ

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oilers are an outlier when it comes to rebuilding. rebuilds do not take 10 years if you have competent management

hell, the longest playoff drought by any current team is the oilers at 10 years

To add to this... Technically speaking, the Oilers drought hasn't completely consisted of "rebuilding seasons". They were legitimately trying to make the playoffs from 2006-2009 before they waived the "rebuild" flag halfway through the 2009-10 season. I mean, a rebuilding team doesn't sign a 36 year old Nikolai Khabibulin to a long term deal or offer up young guys/picks/prospects for Dany Heatley.
 

Lazlo Hollyfeld

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Disagree.

6 different teams have experienced a playoff drought of 7+ years since the 04 lockout.

4 teams are currently on active droughts of 6+ years



Crazy enough, but the inept Avs make neither list.

So since the lockout, 80% of the league made it back into the playoffs in less than 7 years.

Currently 13% of the league is on an active drought of 6+ years.
 
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Ezekial

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But that's not very good context. The leafs have 1 playoff appearance and 1 first round exit since said lockout. They're on the right track now but 1 playoff appearance doesn't mean you've completed the rebuild or it amount to anything noteworthy.
 

Dotter

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But that's not very good context. The leafs have 1 playoff appearance and 1 first round exit since said lockout. They're on the right track now but 1 playoff appearance doesn't mean you've completed the rebuild or it amount to anything noteworthy.

TMLs have a ways to go, and I am not sure they are going to get the defensemen they need to do much damage. Matthews is a blessing, but they have lots of holes. Too many holes to be legit contenders in the foreseeable future.
 

Heaton

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TMLs have a ways to go, and I am not sure they are going to get the defensemen they need to do much damage. Matthews is a blessing, but they have lots of holes. Too many holes to be legit contenders in the foreseeable future.

Toronto is a destination for free agents, forget all of that Babcock stuff, players want to be part of teams like the Leafs and the Rangers to win after years of not having a cup. Either way, they have a really nice nucleus and will be in the conversation for a while now.
 

silkyjohnson50

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TMLs have a ways to go, and I am not sure they are going to get the defensemen they need to do much damage. Matthews is a blessing, but they have lots of holes. Too many holes to be legit contenders in the foreseeable future.

No reasonable person would believe that.

Their forward core is already good regardless of their age. Even if it takes them a few years to get the necessary piece(s) on the blueline, all of their core forwards will still be young and under 30.

They're in very good shape organizationally speaking. If Detroit was already sitting where they are, most of us here would be pretty ecstatic.
 

Retire91

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So since the lockout, 80% of the league made it back into the playoffs in less than 7 years.

Currently 13% of the league is on an active drought of 6+ years.

Making the playoffs isn't really that hard and isn't a good measure of success. Being a legit contender and going deep with elite talent is. I would trade teams with Toronto or Tampa in a heartbeat. The record is irrelivant. Having a core with talent that has a shot of going the distance is what is important. No one currently on the wings roster is at that level
 

Ezekial

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If you thought Holland was gonna blatantly tank you were just setting yourself up for disappointment.
 
Jul 30, 2005
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I mean, what is location, really
Another great quote from that video (8:05):

"I'm the general manager. As long as I'm the general manager, I want us to be the very best that we can be. I don't believe in tear-downs or massive rebuilds because I don't believe that you can just guarantee that the end result is going to turn out to be Stanley Cups and dynasties."

We're doomed. We're avoiding doing the right thing because it won't guarantee us a cup. But in the meantime, we're perfectly content doing something that has even less of a chance to work, because at least we can make the playoffs that way.

So the real question is... how do we get Holland fired? Could we make a big petition? We could at least get it on the radar that we're unhappy with him.
 

Red Stanley

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Yes, he should go out and say "we'll be tanking the next 5 seasons for picks. Come see us suck at the new arena!"
 
Jul 30, 2005
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I mean, what is location, really
Yes, he should go out and say "we'll be tanking the next 5 seasons for picks. Come see us suck at the new arena!"
That's what Jimmy D said. Besides, the bait and switch is not going to be very convincing after the team itself absolutely sucks.

But if I'm interpreting your comment correctly, you're saying that Holland doesn't really believe in the philosophy he espoused in the interview, and that he's closer to Jimmy D's position?
 

Red Stanley

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That's what Jimmy D said. Besides, the bait and switch is not going to be very convincing after the team itself absolutely sucks.

But if I'm interpreting your comment correctly, you're saying that Holland doesn't really believe in the philosophy he espoused in the interview, and that he's closer to Jimmy D's position?

If the team itself absolutely sucks, does it really matter what Holland says in interviews?
 
Jul 30, 2005
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I mean, what is location, really
If the team itself absolutely sucks, does it really matter what Holland says in interviews?
Sure it does. He's the one driving the boat. He's the one who can trade picks and young assets for veterans. He's the one who can tie up millions on questionable UFAs to make the playoffs again.

How the team rebuilds is just as important as that it rebuilds. If you do it wrong, you make things drastically worse.
 

Lazlo Hollyfeld

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Making the playoffs isn't really that hard and isn't a good measure of success. Being a legit contender and going deep with elite talent is. I would trade teams with Toronto or Tampa in a heartbeat. The record is irrelivant. Having a core with talent that has a shot of going the distance is what is important. No one currently on the wings roster is at that level

I wholeheartedly agree.

To be clear the post I was responding to was commenting on how the Oilers long failed rebuild wasn't an outlier. I think the Oilers rebuild was in no way average. It was badly mismanaged for years.
 

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