The Official Tank Thread / Draft Lottery Thread

Where to the habs end up in the standings?


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Lebowski

El Duderino
Dec 5, 2010
17,585
5,218
They just need to package some picks to get the player they really want.

With the average hit rate at the draft, I think that strategy is just as likely to backfire as it is to profit you in the long run. Unless you're trading up to move into a certain tier of players, like the Dahlin and Svechnikov tier for example, I'd rather keep as many of my quality picks as I can.

Didn't the Habs trade up for Tinordi to "get the player they really want"? What if Kuznetsov was 2nd on Timmins list?

What if Timmins absolutely fell in love with Esposito in 2007, and trades up with his 22nd and 43rd pick in order to pick him?
 

NotProkofievian

Registered User
Nov 29, 2011
24,476
24,599
With the average hit rate at the draft, I think that strategy is just as likely to backfire as it is to profit you in the long run. Unless you're trading up to move into a certain tier of players, like the Dahlin and Svechnikov tier for example, I'd rather keep as many of my quality picks as I can.

Didn't the Habs trade up for Tinordi to "get the player they really want"? What if Kuznetsov was 2nd on Timmins list?

What if Timmins absolutely fell in love with Esposito in 2007, and trades up with his 22nd and 43rd pick in order to pick him?

I tell you what would happen: people would argue until they're blue in the face that ''we wouldn't have selected Pacioretty and Subban anyways'' and how criticizing Timmins for this pick is abusing hindsight.
 

Omar

Registered User
Oct 10, 2017
2,109
1,552
Yeah I don't like Bergevin and want him gone too.

I'm always optimistic when we enter the playoffs. Obviously we wouldn't be a top contender or anything, but if our goalie gets hot at the right time nothing is impossible. So no I think if we made the playoffs I would feel optimistic about our chances at the very least in round 1. Then after round 1, it snowballs. Once you make it to round 2 anything is possible, and so on.

Finally - I don't think that tanking/the draft is the only means to contending (nor do I even believe that necessarily has a strong chance of success). With a competent GM, we can make some moves in the off-season. Maybe we get lucky and sign someone like Tavares. Maybe we make some trades and get some actual decent players to address some of our needs. I think with a smart/capable GM we'd be able to turn out fortunes around by retooling, without a full rebuild.



Well right now Philly (and every other team in the race) is pacing for below 90 points. Does that continue? Does 1 or 2 of those teams get hot and finish at 98 points, and does that become the magic# where the last playoff spot is awarded? Maybe. Impossible to say of course.

But if the last playoff spot takes 90 points, as today's pace seems to indicate. It's not that unrealistic that with a win streak we can still reach that total. If we win our next 3 games (as an example). That would leave us with needing to finish our last 26 games of the season with 34 points. That gets us 90 points. It's not quite as unrealistic as you think.

Finally what I meant when i say "acting like gm". Everyone in these threads gets upset when I mention playoffs. It's not like i'm advocating we should be buyers, and trade our 1st round pick or other prospects to make a push for playoffs. All i'm doing is trying to stay optimistic and hoping we can start winning some games with our roster - our roster which SHOULD be playing better than it is. All of our players are having horrible years. That's crazy.

I’m not going to convince you but all I can tell you is this roster is poorly constructed and it’s better that we get a higher draft pick to get more talent in this team so that we can get farther in the playoffs as you’d want it. We have the worst center ice depth in the league and you don’t win in the playoffs with that. So making the playoffs is a terrible idea if you continue to get bounced early and don’t pick high enough in the draft to fill your holes. But I’m not saying something you don’t already know.

What I understand is you’re one of the fans who likes to watch your team in the playoffs, doesn’t really care if we’re a true contender and actually have a chance at the Cup. That’s okay too but others want to actually see this team win a Cup one day and one 5-7 game win streak doesn’t help us at all.
 

Lshap

Hardline Moderate
Jun 6, 2011
27,277
24,867
Montreal
Looks like Dahlin is becoming more and more of a pipe dream.

We're only 7 points behind Philly for playoffs with 30 games to go including 3 head to head against them.
Dahlin was always a pipe dream. Habs were never going to finish lower than Buffalo or Arizona. Realistic best pick was 3rd to 5th (unless we get a lucky number).
 
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Price is Wright

Registered User
Feb 5, 2010
12,494
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essex
Dahlin was always a pipe dream. Habs were never going to finish lower than Buffalo or Arizona. Realistic best pick was 3rd to 5th (unless we get a lucky number).

Word is that during the Matthews lottery, Montreal was like one number away from landing the first overall pick.
 

LaP

Registered User
Jun 27, 2012
24,298
17,415
Quebec City, Canada
For all those stats watchers.

Florida sits at a 14.4% chance to make playoffs according to sportsclubstats. Weren't they at like ~2% like we were at the all star break? And now 3 wins later they're at almost 15%.

Put a few victories together and your odds change quickly.

Put a few wins together and your odd to lose a few games in the upcoming weeks gets up. Yes we all get it after a few wins the odds are better. That's what a few wins do. But the reason why we are in a bad position is because we lose more than we win. And a few wins wont change that. All teams have a good sequence here and there and they all look good when they are at the end of a good sequence. Even the Expos had good sequences. But all good sequences are followed by a bad sequence. You are in a good position only and only if the bad sequence following a good sequence is not equal or worse than said good sequence. You don't evaluate a team or a player when things are going well. You evaluate them when things are not going well.
 

Price is Wright

Registered User
Feb 5, 2010
12,494
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essex
It was, and nobody would have guessed that the Flyers and devils would win the top 2 spots.

Yeah the Flyers moved up from what 11th to 2nd?

The lottery is ridiculous. If I got a Top 15 pick in the draft I'm never trading it except for a higher pick, and I'm pushing to trade for everyone else's. The fear of tanking is really just a smokescreen for smart franchises to take advantage of the have nots.
 

yianik

Registered User
Jun 30, 2009
10,609
6,024
With the average hit rate at the draft, I think that strategy is just as likely to backfire as it is to profit you in the long run. Unless you're trading up to move into a certain tier of players, like the Dahlin and Svechnikov tier for example, I'd rather keep as many of my quality picks as I can.

Didn't the Habs trade up for Tinordi to "get the player they really want"? What if Kuznetsov was 2nd on Timmins list?

What if Timmins absolutely fell in love with Esposito in 2007, and trades up with his 22nd and 43rd pick in order to pick him?


I understand what your saying, but to grab top centres you have a much better chance
With the average hit rate at the draft, I think that strategy is just as likely to backfire as it is to profit you in the long run. Unless you're trading up to move into a certain tier of players, like the Dahlin and Svechnikov tier for example, I'd rather keep as many of my quality picks as I can.

Didn't the Habs trade up for Tinordi to "get the player they really want"? What if Kuznetsov was 2nd on Timmins list?

What if Timmins absolutely fell in love with Esposito in 2007, and trades up with his 22nd and 43rd pick in order to pick him?

And to me I think that you need to try to move into that higher tier. It's risky for sure but if you have a bunch of good centres 4 to 9 then maybe you trade a roster guy to get there. Nucks traded Schneider, got 9th and picked Horvat. Rags traded Stepan to get 7th and Andersson.

Unless we get lotto picks on our own that high, there really is no choice to have a decent shot at a 1 C. Giroux , Kopitar and Getzlaf connects are pretty infrequent
 

mariolemieux66

Registered User
Sep 17, 2008
16,315
7,252
Vancouver
Correct me if i am wrong but out of the current top 20 scorers, 18 are 1st round draft picks, Kucherov 2nd round and Gaudreau 4th round. I could do the same for the top 10 dmen and i am certain 70% are 1st round draft picks. I am also pretty confident that at least 60 % of those 1st round picks were drafted in the top 10.
Tanking, accumulating high draft picks is the best way to go if we want a very competitive team again.
 

Kojo

Registered User
Nov 22, 2013
5,894
2,311
What is the odd of us picking top three and actually developing this talent instead of trading him or squandering his development. That's the stats I'm more concerned about.
 

bobholly39

Registered User
Mar 10, 2013
22,078
14,589
Correct me if i am wrong but out of the current top 20 scorers, 18 are 1st round draft picks, Kucherov 2nd round and Gaudreau 4th round. I could do the same for the top 10 dmen and i am certain 70% are 1st round draft picks. I am also pretty confident that at least 60 % of those 1st round picks were drafted in the top 10.
Tanking, accumulating high draft picks is the best way to go if we want a very competitive team again.

Yeah but you can acquire players through trade also.
And soooo many first round draft picks end up being busts too, that it's not so obvious. That's my worry.

I feel as though the likelihood of us turning it around and "winning" by going through the draft is very low. Or at least requires a lot of luck, and you won't know for years how things turn out.

Example - and just an example - if we landed the 2nd pick this year. I'd be more excited about trading him for an established young player than I would about drafting a player with risk to it.

I guess for the top top prospects (like Dahlin) in a draft who are surefire home-runs. By all means, bring them on. But outside of those, i'm a lot less excited about the draft than most.
 

bobholly39

Registered User
Mar 10, 2013
22,078
14,589
What is the odd of us picking top three and actually developing this talent instead of trading him or squandering his development. That's the stats I'm more concerned about.

Exactly.

We drafted Sergachev. People kept going on and on about him so i was somewhat excited. Then he came to Montreal, didn't do much at all (Mete has been better/more exciting this year than Serg last year...) and my expectations/excitement for him went way down.

When we traded him for Drouin? I was excited. Always felt Drouin had untapped potential (still do).

Yet as soon as Sergachev is traded....he establishes himself in the NHL as an excellent player.

Was he just not ready last year - or is it that we suck so bad at developing/showcasing players. It had to be the latter...
 

ECWHSWI

TOUGHEN UP.
Oct 27, 2006
28,604
5,423
Yeah but you can acquire players through trade also.
And soooo many first round draft picks end up being busts too, that it's not so obvious. That's my worry.

I feel as though the likelihood of us turning it around and "winning" by going through the draft is very low. Or at least requires a lot of luck, and you won't know for years how things turn out.

Example - and just an example - if we landed the 2nd pick this year. I'd be more excited about trading him for an established young player than I would about drafting a player with risk to it.

I guess for the top top prospects (like Dahlin) in a draft who are surefire home-runs. By all means, bring them on. But outside of those, i'm a lot less excited about the draft than most.
available to other teams AND trade worthy ? who are these Habs players you are speaking of ? ?


no one.
no extra pick
no area where we have more than we need (defense, offense, goalies)


that's why tanking is the solution.
 

Habs100

Registered User
Nov 6, 2013
5,218
1,619
Dahlin was always a pipe dream. Habs were never going to finish lower than Buffalo or Arizona. Realistic best pick was 3rd to 5th (unless we get a lucky number).

Note that the difference in odds for landing the first pick whether you finish last, 2nd last, or 3rd last aren't that different.
 

Lshap

Hardline Moderate
Jun 6, 2011
27,277
24,867
Montreal
Note that the difference in odds for landing the first pick whether you finish last, 2nd last, or 3rd last aren't that different.
The odds are small for any team, even the bottom-3. I doubt we finish that low, which makes our chances even smaller. Sure, anything can happen, but getting Dahlin is not a bet we should be counting on.
 

Lshap

Hardline Moderate
Jun 6, 2011
27,277
24,867
Montreal
What is the odd of us picking top three and actually developing this talent instead of trading him or squandering his development. That's the stats I'm more concerned about.
Well, a top-3 pick would probably go directly to the NHL, so if we got him he'd at least bypass our AHL traffic-accident.
 

CHwest

Talent sets the floor, character sets the ceiling.
May 24, 2011
3,446
4,512
The odds are small for any team, even the bottom-3. I doubt we finish that low, which makes our chances even smaller. Sure, anything can happen, but getting Dahlin is not a bet we should be counting on.
The way the lottery is structured, 1st pick is not anything any team should be counting on. But we can all hope, some lucky dog is going to win.
 
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Habs100

Registered User
Nov 6, 2013
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The odds are small for any team, even the bottom-3. I doubt we finish that low, which makes our chances even smaller. Sure, anything can happen, but getting Dahlin is not a bet we should be counting on.

That's true. And it's the same for any team. The last place team only has a 15% chance of landing Dahlin. But the lower you finish, it becomes much, much more likely to land a top 3 or a top 5 pick, which, unless we're lucky like the Sergachev draft, is a world of difference from picking 9th or 10th.
 

Lshap

Hardline Moderate
Jun 6, 2011
27,277
24,867
Montreal
That's true. And it's the same for any team. The last place team only has a 15% chance of landing Dahlin. But the lower you finish, it becomes much, much more likely to land a top 3 or a top 5 pick, which, unless we're lucky like the Sergachev draft, is a world of difference from picking 9th or 10th.
Yup - a top-5 pick would be a great start towards rebuilding. Next, we've gotta trade for other teams' 1st-round picks in the next two drafts. Nobody's trading away their 1st this year, but there's a decent chance we could grab a 2018 or 19 1st-round pick. Great gambles would be Vegas, Chicago or Anaheim -- teams that are currently in playoff mode that might collapse next year.
 

NotProkofievian

Registered User
Nov 29, 2011
24,476
24,599
Correct me if i am wrong but out of the current top 20 scorers, 18 are 1st round draft picks, Kucherov 2nd round and Gaudreau 4th round. I could do the same for the top 10 dmen and i am certain 70% are 1st round draft picks. I am also pretty confident that at least 60 % of those 1st round picks were drafted in the top 10.
Tanking, accumulating high draft picks is the best way to go if we want a very competitive team again.

You're not wrong. People who disagree with this approach are the same people who will fold an open ended straight flush draw to an all in bet when they're getting 3:1 pot odds. ''Omg, it's not guaranteed, bro, we can't do that, it's not guaranteed!''

Some people would prefer guaranteed mediocrity than attempt at greatness.
 

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