I think 7.5 is a reasonable estimate at what it will take to sign Stone and Duchene. My rationale is recent contracts to guys like Voracek, Kuznetsov, Radulov, and Pavelski. Duchene has had several poor years, 40 great games won't suddenly launch him up into the next tier, though if he holds off and waits till next season and plays well next year, he could go up. But, for arguments sake, lets say it takes 8 mil a piece. Here's my run and making it work with what we have:
2018 Offseason:
Sign Stone, and extend Duchene at 8 mil each for 8 and 7 years respectively.
Extend Karlsson at 11 mil for 8 years
Take Ceci to arbitration, 2 year deal (Can we do that? hoping for under 4 mil, guessing 3.8)
Trade Smith for futures this offseason.
2018-19 lineup:
Dzingel-Duchene-Hoffman
Ryan-Brown-Stone
Chlapik-Pageau-White
Pyatt-Paul-Gaborik
Chabot-Karlsson
Harpur-Ceci
Wolanin-Boro
Draft: Add one of Dahlin, Svechnikov, Zadina, Dobson, Wahlstrom or Tkachuk. If it's one of the first two, the jump right into the lineup, pushing Paul or one of Harpur/Wolanin out of the line and things shuffle a bit)
This lineup costs about 71 mil. in real dollars. Probably not competitive unless Dahlin or Svechnikov land in our lap and round things out. If the team commits to going for a playoff spot and is willing to spend a touch more, look for a 1 year UFA option in the 3-5 mil range.
2019 offseason:
Burrows disappears. replace him with a ~.780 ELC like Formenton, or Batherson.
Extend Dzingel @ 4 mil for 3 years.
Extend Pyatt or sign similar UFA at 1.2
Extend White @ 2.3 for 3 years
Wolanin gets a new deal if warranted, estimating around 1.4, otherwise slid an ELC into his spot (Jaros?) or a UFA.
Our 2018 draft pick should be ready regardless who we get, lets assume it's a forward as that's what the odds suggest.
2019-20 Lineup:
Dzingel-Duchene-Hoffman
Ryan-Brown-Stone
Svech/Zadina/Wahlstrom-Pageau-White
Formenton-Chlapik--Pyatt
Chabot-Karlsson
Harpur-Ceci
Wolanin?-Boro
This lineup costs about 74-75 mil. in real dollars including Gaborik, MacArthur and Phaneuf retention. If we buyout Gaborik it's a bit less.
2020 Offseason:
Hooray, MacArthur is off the books!
Getting to the point were it's hard to predict what happens.
- Extend Hoffman at 6.5 for 5 years, might take more than that.
Hopefully White is ready to take Pageau's role, and we can have traded Pageau for either some nice futures, or help on the backend.
- Extend Brown 3.3 for 3 years bridge deal?
- Extend Chlapik if warranted at 1.8 (Dzingel like deal)
- Extend Chabot @ 4.5 mil for 4 years
- Extend or replace Ceci depending on performance with a 4.5 mil Dman.
- pray that one or both of Gustavsson and Hogberg have worked out, and sign cheap backup if needed.
- Extend or replace Boro with cheap contract (Jaros?)
2020-21 Lineup:
Dzingel-Duchene-Hoffman
Svech/Zadina/Wahlstrom -Brown-Stone
Ryan –White- Batherson
Formenton-Chlapik--Pyatt
Chabot-Karlsson
Harpur-Ceci?
Wolanin/somebody...-Boro/Jaros
This lineup costs around 76 mil, but is relying on extremely inexpensive goaltending thanks to Gustavsson/Hogberg.
2021 offseason:
Hooray, Gaborik and Phaneuf's retention is off the books!
Need new Pyatt like replacement. Estimated cost of 1.5 for 2 years and we have the same roster as the year prior at 72 mil
That's what it will take imo to maintain the roster or close to it. It may stretch the current budget a bit, but if we are willing to pay a bit more, we could add a dman to shore things up and be more competative. If Dahlin is our draft pick, I think it's easier to fill in the forward group. 2022 we have a lot of players to re-sign, and it's projecting too far already to be worthwhile.