HF Habs: The official 2023-2024 tank thread

[JeffreyLFC]

Like i said it's not bullet proof. You have to look at the draft in the aggragate. If you look at singular picks you're just looking at anecdotes. If you draft a bust in the first round and Jason Robertson in the 2nd round you did well. If you draft a single Jason Robertson every year no matter where you drafted him you're very good.

I really don't undertsand why some posters want to push the narrative that drafting high is useless. It's well established that the higher you draft the better the probability to get a good player. In the aggrate drafting top 5 in all rounds is way better than drafting 20th in all round. A 37th picks is a much much much much much much better pick than a 52nd pick.

People look at drafting high from the perspective of the 1st round only but it's wrong. Drafting high in the 2nd and 3rd rounds also has a non insignificant value.

I would even add that getting 2 good NHL player in a single draft an amazing achievement. IMO the big reason of the surge of Tampa Bay and Dallas has been on them to capitalize on their draft assets in later rounds.

 

[rahad]

Are we at the point of saying that Robert Thomas is a much better player than Hischier to push a mathematically provable wrong narrative?

okay i'm out of this conversation.

Seriously, what so hard to understand. With higher draft pick, you increase the chance of drafting a good player. You don't end with a leftover or your second choice. Arizona wanted Reinbacher in 2023. If we had draft at #6, he would have been gone.

Just like Kent wanted to draft Will Smith and he has gone at #4. How many time do you end up being lucky and draft player like Jason Robertson? Very low.

Also having high draft pick increase the value for trade.

 

[rahad]

Trade up targets would be:

Minnesota - they could use more pick ammunition to build their team.
Washington - This is a team with a bare cupboard and not a lot of picks.
Islanders - Similar to Washington

Next year is probably Ovechkin last year in the NHL. They are going into a rebuild very soon. I don't see the Caps trading a first round pick.

 

[417]

Your logic is just wrong. Give up.

My logic is just fine and is backed up by actual data.

I don't need to give up anything, cept’ this right here..

 

[417]

The problem with your logic is that a good scouting team will benefit from having a higher pick. Obviously it's important to have a good scouting team i don't remember someone saying otherwise.

My “logic” is based on emphasizing controlling an aspect you actually have control over (scouting, due dlilligence,etc, rather than relying on a chance event (lottery).

I have trouble understanding how that is at all problematic.

Even having a good scouting team doesn’t preclude a team selecting Kaapo Kakko 2nd overall now does it?

You look at past picks and you are like a higher pick doesn't matter we took JK and AG. But that was the result of a bad management. Had the CH drafted where Nashville drafted instead of 3rd overall they would not have likely drafted a bust too instead of Forsberg.

There are PLENTY of examples of strong management groups who have made glaringly bad picks.

Good or bad management isn’t really relevant, the same management group that took KK over BT, also took Caufield while Gorton took Kakko over Caufield or Boldy.

A good drafting team is implied when we talk about the draft. And a good drafting team will 100% benefit from drafting higher. It's not bullet proof nothing really is when it comes to the draft.

Sometimes it does, a lot of times it doesn’t. Weren’t the lot of you complaining about all of the picks this group did not too long ago?
Wasn’t Bobrov public enemy #1 6 months ago?

You will never go anywhere without good management anyone knows that but it doesn't mean that a strategy is not right because bad management failed at it.

What strategy?

Are we at the point of saying that Robert Thomas is a much better player than Hischier to push a mathematically provable wrong narrative?

okay i'm out of this conversation.

I mean….

 

[417]

Like i said it's not bullet proof. You have to look at the draft in the aggragate. If you look at singular picks you're just looking at anecdotes. If you draft a bust in the first round and Jason Robertson in the 2nd round you did well. If you draft a single Jason Robertson every year no matter where you drafted him you're very good.

I really don't undertsand why some posters want to push the narrative that drafting high is useless. It's well established that the higher you draft the better the probability to get a good player. In the aggrate drafting top 5 in all rounds is way better than drafting 20th in all round. A 37th picks is a much much much much much much better pick than a 52nd pick.

People look at drafting high from the perspective of the 1st round only but it's wrong. Drafting high in the 2nd and 3rd rounds also has a non insignificant value.

I need to make my position my position clear since this isn’t at all what I argued.

Obviously, picking higher presents a more advantageous initial draft position.

But a lot of you talk like it guarantees a better player, when in reality, if you look at re-drafts, it is almost always false.

Players initially ranked later, invariably end up being better players than players initially ranked higher (within a reasonable range of course I.e. Matthew Boldy going 12th overall when Kappo Kakko goes 2nd).

This is ANOTHER example of a higher pick not necessarily being better for the picking team (and yes I understand that you could easily find the opposite, which if anything drives home my point even more about scouting > slotting).

Hence why the priority, unless you have a chance at picking 1st, should always be making sure you’re not missing wherever it is you end up picking in the first round, in our example, that’s 2, 3, 5, 6 or 7 (I believe).

I don’t want my team scouting draft slots, I want them scouting players. They’ve got a top 7 pick, just don’t miss…

 

[417]

I would even add that getting 2 good NHL player in a single draft an amazing achievement. IMO the big reason of the surge of Tampa Bay and Dallas has been on them to capitalize on their draft assets in later rounds.

It’s almost like the best scouting staffs are the best because they rely on actually scouting, rather than relying on on chance events.

 

[JeffreyLFC]

It’s almost like the best scouting staffs are the best because they rely on actually scouting, rather than relying on on chance events.

I do believe that there are luck factor and being very opportunistic too.

For instance regarding Kucherov he was very highly regarded in term of pure talent his u18 was eye opening and a complete dominant act but even then for some reason the anti Russian sentiment was still very high that year as the KHL appeared as a serious trait in retaining their young talent + Filatov complete failure at the NHL scared some teams + Kucherov lack size and average skating made him available in the 2nd round. Even Tampa Bay probably never thought he would become the player he is now but they took the risk. You would rarely get top 5 talent in the 2nd round but for these unbelievable reason he was there. If Tampa Bay were very high on him (as they should) they would have drafted him with their 1st round pick and not risk for him to drop.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Next year is probably Ovechkin last year in the NHL. They are going into a rebuild very soon. I don't see the Caps trading a first round pick.

They're not, they are still getting a first but they're also getting more picks to build their prospect pool up earlier.