The Office of Strategic Planning - Tank Talk

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AKL

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This was the first regulation loss to the Panthers in team history?

This is the kind of history we need to be making for the rest of the season.

First time losing to Detroit by 10 goals? Let's do it.
 

DemidovSaveUs

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I would be okay with adding to Zucker to get their 1st. Not much, mind you, but something we won't miss? Sure.
would anyone do Zucker + 2nd for their 1st? I think I would simply because I feel we have a lot of second round quality prospect (Beckman, First, Jones, Johansson) and picking at 10-12 gives us a better chance to get an impact player which we don't have an abundance of.
 

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would anyone do Zucker + 2nd for their 1st? I think I would simply because I feel we have a lot of second round quality prospect (Beckman, First, Jones, Johansson) and picking at 10-12 gives us a better chance to get an impact player which we don't have an abundance of.

I wouldn't prefer it, but I can't deny, we don't really need quantity anymore, so I'd do it for the extra chance at a top 12ish quality guy.
 
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DemidovSaveUs

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This was the first regulation loss to the Panthers in team history?

This is the kind of history we need to be making for the rest of the season.

First time losing to Detroit by 10 goals? Let's do it.
14-4 with 4 Fiala goals is deflating yet satisfying. Ek can get an assist too
 

DemidovSaveUs

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I'd be interested in trying Fiala-Ek-Kunin for a while, but I'm worried it would destroy the tank.
Ek and Kunin would lose soooo much ice-time from having Fiala on their line instead of Foligno
 

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Just looking at the standings right now, somehow, luckily, the Wild still sit 7th worst in the league after tonight.

Tomorrow:
Jets (54) play the Hurricanes (59)
Bruins (68) play the Knights (57)
Rangers (50) play the Islanders (61)
Penguins (67) play the Flyers (58)
Panthers (59) play the Blackhawks (54)

If the bolded teams can win, especially the Rangers, Jets and Hawks, that will buy us a little ground, but if we beat the Red Wings, we'll be at 52 points going into the break.

Considering the only other game to be played before the break (and until the 27th) would be:

Jets (54/56) @ Blue Jackets (60)

52 points would have us sitting at 11th worst in the league going into the break, after leap-frogging Montreal, Buffalo and Nashville, who all sit at 51 points, and possibly New York Rangers at 50 or 52.

Needless to say, Detroit is a must lose, if only for the optics of the tanks to be more clear.
 
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57special

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Isn't the point of a tank to have short term pain, long term gain? Cause trading Brodin seems to be long term pain.
 

TaLoN

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Isn't the point of a tank to have short term pain, long term gain? Cause trading Brodin seems to be long term pain.
Tanking generally involves selling off your highest value players for futures.

In general though, I subscribe to selling players when their stock is highest. Brodin's stock may never be higher, so if ever... the time to trade him would be now.
 
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AKL

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Tanking generally involves selling off your highest value players for futures.

In general though, I subscribe to selling players when their stock is highest. Brodin's stock may never be higher, so if ever... the time to trade him would be now.

It's the kind of shrewd move GMs should be making. When you consider all the circumstances here:

UFA in 1.5 years, could lose him anyway
Plenty of teams interested in him right now
Value is as high as it's ever been
The money

We could probably sign him to an extension, but when you have 21M locked up in your top 3 D long term, Pateryn is at 3ish, Soucy will likely get bumped up to 3ish, and another 1.5M for the 6 and 7 guys, that's 28.5M locked up in your D. Is it really wise to add another 5M to that number when you have a guy who can immediately step into the top 4 for cheaper?

Same goes for Zucker to an extent. Although he's not a UFA, you can reasonably cover for the loss of his offense next year with Kaprizov coming over, and possibly some of the kids taking further steps forward. Beyond that, you have Boldy, Beckman, Firstov all fighting for spots in the next 2-4 years.

But more importantly, Zucker's value has rebounded, he's garnering interest from around the league, and you can free up 5.5M in cap at the same time. These are the types of moves we should be making, considering we're not going to be really competing until Kaprizov, Boldy, Khovanov and our 2020 1st are on the roster. You vie for a playoff spot, and you might make it one or two years of the next four, but realistically, unless these prospects turn into big time contributors, you're not going far. By the time that comes around, Brodin and Zucker will probably be moved anyway.

Dumba is someone I'd hang on to until we can get a top 6 center back for him. And as an added bonus, let's say you get a guy like Domi who likely needs 7-8M on his next contract, you have the cap space to give it to him and not worry about who else needs to get chopped.

This team isn't in that bad of shape going forward, honestly. You're missing a couple key pieces (hopefully will be partly addressed at the 2020 draft), but the absolute biggest thing going forward is we need to start reigning in some of the money we're handing out. I don't want to keep giving middle six and middle pairing guys big money. If you start giving Brodin 5-6M, Zucker's next contract could come in at 6-7M, that's a lot of money tied up to players that probably aren't worth the money for the term.
 
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And for the love of everything, Guerin really needs to have an honest discussion with Zuccarello about his role here going forward and the outlook of the team. I don't know if Zuccarello came here thinking he could help us compete for a Cup, or if we just handed out another retirement contract like we seem to enjoy doing, but if it's the former, both Zuccarello and Guerin need to be honest with themselves and each other.

See if you can find someone who will take Zuccarello for whatever you can get for him, see if Zuccarello will waive his clause for anyone. We don't need that kind of negativity around the expansion draft. We may not have a lot of super high quality forwards to protect, but I'd rather use that spot for someone who can be kept through a mini-rebuild and come out on the other side still in his prime and ready to help the team win.
 
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It seems Guerin is aware that he needs top 6 centers, as anyone that takes one look at this organization should be, it's just a matter of him doing what it takes to get one. If trading Zucker and Brodin for futures packages hurts the team this season and helps our draft stock, it should without a doubt be seen as a completely viable strategy. Especially if you're looking at the trade market and there just isn't one of those guys available.

Your pride means nothing. If you have to nudge yourself in the losing direction to help yourself get that piece you so desperately need, you do it. Waiting for nature to take its toll is how you continue to tread water. That's how turn what could be a relatively short rebuild, into something that takes years and years, waiting for that center to become available. And you end up wasting the potential primes of guys like Boldy, Kaprizov and Fiala.
 
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TaLoN

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It's the kind of shrewd move GMs should be making. When you consider all the circumstances here:

UFA in 1.5 years, could lose him anyway
Plenty of teams interested in him right now
Value is as high as it's ever been
The money

We could probably sign him to an extension, but when you have 21M locked up in your top 3 D long term, Pateryn is at 3ish, Soucy will likely get bumped up to 3ish, and another 1.5M for the 6 and 7 guys, that's 28.5M locked up in your D. Is it really wise to add another 5M to that number when you have a guy who can immediately step into the top 4 for cheaper?

Same goes for Zucker to an extent. Although he's not a UFA, you can reasonably cover for the loss of his offense next year with Kaprizov coming over, and possibly some of the kids taking further steps forward. Beyond that, you have Boldy, Beckman, Firstov all fighting for spots in the next 2-4 years.

But more importantly, Zucker's value has rebounded, he's garnering interest from around the league, and you can free up 5.5M in cap at the same time. These are the types of moves we should be making, considering we're not going to be really competing until Kaprizov, Boldy, Khovanov and our 2020 1st are on the roster. You vie for a playoff spot, and you might make it one or two years of the next four, but realistically, unless these prospects turn into big time contributors, you're not going far. By the time that comes around, Brodin and Zucker will probably be moved anyway.

Dumba is someone I'd hang on to until we can get a top 6 center back for him. And as an added bonus, let's say you get a guy like Domi who likely needs 7-8M on his next contract, you have the cap space to give it to him and not worry about who else needs to get chopped.

This team isn't in that bad of shape going forward, honestly. You're missing a couple key pieces (hopefully will be partly addressed at the 2020 draft), but the absolute biggest thing going forward is we need to start reigning in some of the money we're handing out. I don't want to keep giving middle six and middle pairing guys big money. If you start giving Brodin 5-6M, Zucker's next contract could come in at 6-7M, that's a lot of money tied up to players that probably aren't worth the money for the term.
Agreed on both Brodin and Zucker for sure. I would've traded Zucker after his 33g season... that was when his value was highest, but he has resurrected it enough again to be doable.

You and I don't see eye to eye on this tank thing, but moves like these are good ideas no matter your tank stance. ;)

Dumba is far too talented to sell him now... that would be disaster because of the value he's lost. If he rebounds (and I'm sure he will), ONLY if a top center option can be had, should he be moved.
 
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DemidovSaveUs

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If I were a guessing man, I'd put our draft position (pre-lottery) is somewhere between 7-9. Det, Ana, LAK, NJD, SJS, and OTT are pretty much locks to stay behind us. On the other hand, I feel pretty good that Chicago, Winnipeg, NSH and NYR are better teams than us and will finish ahead of us. The teams that worry me are Montreal and Buffalo. so, let's play this out-->
1. DET: needs: everything, so BPA: Lafreniere
2. LAK: Needs: Everything, so BPA: Byfield
3. NJD: Needs: Wingers, D, Goalies, so: I think one of Drysdale, Raymond, or Stutzle is gone here
4. Ott: Needs: everything, so: I think one of the remaining above will go here, with Rossi also in the conversation
5. Anaheim: Needs: Wingers, Could use a bona-fide 1C, D. So, at this point, let's say Drysdale, Stutzle, and Raymond are gone
6. Ott: A lot depends on their first pick, but this is the first team that considers Askarov --> I think players they consider here are: Askarov, Rossi, Holtz, Lundell, Perfetti
7. MIN: Needs: High-end skill, Cs. I think here we are likely picking from The same group as above essentially. Rossi probably should be gone, but his size could make him fall like we see every year. Now, remember, we could likely pick anywhere from 7-9. If we pick 9th, we might be going with Perfetti, who I think will be a stud, but he'll be a stud on the wing. We also start to leap into the territory where, if our scouts don't like a player, we could reach.
 
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AKL

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If I were a guessing man, I'd put our draft position (pre-lottery) is somewhere between 7-9. Det, Ana, LAK, NJD, SJS, and OTT are pretty much locks to stay behind us. On the other hand, I feel pretty good that Chicago, Winnipeg, NSH and NYR are better teams than us and will finish ahead of us. The teams that worry me are Montreal and Buffalo. so, let's play this out-->
1. DET: needs: everything, so BPA: Lafreniere
2. LAK: Needs: Everything, so BPA: Byfield
3. NJD: Needs: Wingers, D, Goalies, so: I think one of Drysdale, Raymond, or Stutzle is gone here
4. Ott: Needs: everything, so: I think one of the remaining above will go here, with Rossi also in the conversation
5. Anaheim: Needs: Wingers, Could use a bona-fide 1C, D. So, at this point, let's say Drysdale, Stutzle, and Raymond are gone
6. Ott: A lot depends on their first pick, but this is the first team that considers Askarov --> I think players they consider here are: Askarov, Rossi, Holtz, Lundell, Perfetti
7. MIN: Needs: High-end skill, Cs. I think here we are likely picking from The same group as above essentially. Rossi probably should be gone, but his size could make him fall like we see every year. Now, remember, we could likely pick anywhere from 7-9. If we pick 9th, we might be going with Perfetti, who I think will be a stud, but he'll be a stud on the wing. We also start to leap into the territory where, if our scouts don't like a player, we could reach.

Picking 7-9, if Lundell is still there, and Rossi and Byfield are gone, along with Lafreniere, Drysdale, Stutzle and Raymond, I'm looking heavily at Lundell. Even if Holtz/Raymond are still there, Lundell is not a bad pick, especially for a team that needs any kind of top center prospects approximately yesterday.

Detroit: Lafreniere
LA: Byfield
NJ: Drysdale
Ottawa: Stutzle
Anaheim: Raymond
Ottawa: Rossi
Minnesota: Lundell, Holtz, Perfetti, Askarov

Give me Lundell all day there. I know you sacrifice some upside, potentially, but if Lundell can hit his ceiling as a 75-85 point 2-way C, that's massive for the rebuild.
 

AKL

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If the order goes like:

Laf
Byfield
Drysdale
Rossi
Lundell
Stutzle

And you're choosing between Raymond, Holtz, Perfetti and Askarov, then you can start trying to pick BPA. But man, that would be a tough break because you're still looking for the center of the future.
 
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DemidovSaveUs

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Picking 7-9, if Lundell is still there, and Rossi and Byfield are gone, along with Lafreniere, Drysdale, Stutzle and Raymond, I'm looking heavily at Lundell. Even if Holtz/Raymond are still there, Lundell is not a bad pick, especially for a team that needs any kind of top center prospects approximately yesterday.

Detroit: Lafreniere
LA: Byfield
NJ: Drysdale
Ottawa: Stutzle
Anaheim: Raymond
Ottawa: Rossi
Minnesota: Lundell, Holtz, Perfetti, Askarov

Give me Lundell all day there. I know you sacrifice some upside, potentially, but if Lundell can hit his ceiling as a 75-85 point 2-way C, that's massive for the rebuild.
I agree. If we pick 7 I think we're golden, likely having one of Lundell/Rossi available. Picking 9 is where I get some anxiety. If we draft a ppg winger ill be just fine, but coming all this way for a winger will sting until he gets there.
 
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AKL

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I agree. If we pick 7 I think we're golden, likely having one of Lundell/Rossi available. Picking 9 is where I get some anxiety. If we draft a ppg winger ill be just fine, but coming all this way for a winger will sting until he gets there.

Of course, like we talked about, I'd still be looking at Drysdale if he's there and the three centers are gone. That may not be the thing we need, but when you're talking about a guy with no weaknesses at RD, a Cale Makar type guy, man that's hard to pass on for another winger.
 

AKL

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I agree. If we pick 7 I think we're golden, likely having one of Lundell/Rossi available. Picking 9 is where I get some anxiety. If we draft a ppg winger ill be just fine, but coming all this way for a winger will sting until he gets there.

I think if Montreal passes us in the draft, that would be fine. Not great, but I don't anticipate them taking a center with Domi, Suzuki, Kotkaniemi and Poehling.
 

DemidovSaveUs

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Of course, like we talked about, I'd still be looking at Drysdale if he's there and the three centers are gone. That may not be the thing we need, but when you're talking about a guy with no weaknesses at RD, a Cale Makar type guy, man that's hard to pass on for another winger.
I would take Drysdale over any of the wingers, hold Stutzle because I think he can be a C, but I can't see him falling out of the top 5. Defenseman are at a premium and teams reach for them every year. We got Boldy at 12 last year because the D class was bad and Seider, Broberg, Soderstrom were all taken at least a few slots ahead of where they were anticipated to go. I think we have to continue to work at getting the 1C, 1D, and 1G, so if Drysdale is there, by all means take him. I haven't seen a defenseman that can get up the ice that well at that age in a long time.
 

DemidovSaveUs

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I think if Montreal passes us in the draft, that would be fine. Not great, but I don't anticipate them taking a center with Domi, Suzuki, Kotkaniemi and Poehling.
Buffalo also has Eichel, Mitts, Cozens, but lots of teams operate under the BPA mentality. I'd rather not have the nerves.
 
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AKL

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I eagerly await Guerin's first move. As has been talked about, I think it would be foolish to not move Brodin and Zucker, I just hope Guerin agrees and gets some nice value for them.

I look at a team like Washington with Connor McMichael, and although they're not flush with young centers, it seems all their eggs are in on going for wins now while Ovechkin is still here. I don't know if McMichael can be an impact top 6 center in the next few years, especially with Backstrom and Kuznetsov there, and Eller as the 3C. Do they need Brodin or Zucker? Would they move McMichael for the extra help over the next couple years?

That seems like it could be another Forsberg/Erat situation.

In any case, I hope he's not looking at deals like Fenton was. Either go after the high end prospect with risk, or find a way to get the top 6 center. Don't half-ass a trade for something we already have just because he'll be on the roster sooner.
 

DemidovSaveUs

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I eagerly await Guerin's first move. As has been talked about, I think it would be foolish to not move Brodin and Zucker, I just hope Guerin agrees and gets some nice value for them.

I look at a team like Washington with Connor McMichael, and although they're not flush with young centers, it seems all their eggs are in on going for wins now while Ovechkin is still here. I don't know if McMichael can be an impact top 6 center in the next few years, especially with Backstrom and Kuznetsov there, and Eller as the 3C. Do they need Brodin or Zucker? Would they move McMichael for the extra help over the next couple years?

That seems like it could be another Forsberg/Erat situation.

In any case, I hope he's not looking at deals like Fenton was. Either go after the high end prospect with risk, or find a way to get the top 6 center. Don't half-ass a trade for something we already have just because he'll be on the roster sooner.
would be great to sell high on a player for once. Hasn't really happened since Burns
 
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TaLoN

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would be great to sell high on a player for once. Hasn't really happened since Burns
The situation forced us to trade Burns or Koivu. A decision had to be made, but trading Burns should've been avoided... but DR sank that ship before Fletcher got here.

Fletcher had to make a choice... center or defense... hard to win without quality centermen, but offensive defensemen can be looked at as a luxury at times.

We sold high on Burns... sure, but his value wasn't highest. I told Sharks fans who were asking about him that they were getting a future Norris winner... that's what we traded away... we didn't get that value in return.

Ultimately, we got what has now amounted to Donato in return for Burns, and he doesn't fit this roster anywhere.

I don't want the same to happen with Dumba.

But we have to stop trying to lock up everyone with a hockey pulse too.

Brodin is awesome, but he's not build a franchise around awesome. Move him while the moving is good!
 
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