OT: The Off-Topic Thread XX: La fiesta española

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Anglesmith

Setting up the play?
Sep 17, 2012
46,442
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COVID-19 has likely been in North America spreading since January. Quite likely going to find that many of these cases of Flu's going around were COVID-19.

I'm confused about what you're trying to say here. Are you suggesting that we had this virus in North America at the same time as the outbreak in China?
 

Calculon

unholy acting talent
Jan 20, 2006
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My point is getting paranoid and panicking is pointless. By all means pay attention to proper hygiene by washing your hands frequently... If you are sick staying put and not going out.

Other than that live life. This is just another virus like the 1000's before it.
Go ahead and tell Italy that. See how it goes.

I mean, seriously, you gotta love the amount of internet tough guys and geniuses who can't help but act like they're above all of this. Hoarding and the run on toilet paper is unnecessary sure, but taking reasonable precautions like engaging in social distancing in addition to practicing basic hygiene is not panicking.

It's been literally been spelled out thousands of times now all over the web why this isn't like previous viral incidents. So at this point, one can't help but think that the people who still think like this are either being intentionally obtuse or are literally just too mentally challenged to comprehend the situation.
 
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Janks

Pope Janks
Jan 7, 2010
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My point is getting paranoid and panicking is pointless. By all means pay attention to proper hygiene by washing your hands frequently... If you are sick staying put and not going out.

Other than that live life. This is just another virus like the 1000's before it.
Ehh, not the best advice here chief. While it’s a virus, it’s highly contagious and people should be treating it as an infectious disease. Downplaying it with “just another virus” is disingenuous. It has a much larger impact on people with compromised respiratory and cardiovascular systems and older populations.
 

Corpus X

Wearing Stanley's cup.
May 24, 2014
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MOD

Also, this isn't the only corona virus society has faced. There is MERS-CoV, SARS-CoV, and now SARS-CoV-2. These are all Corona Viruses.

COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2)

SARS-CoV-2 was first identified in the Chinese city of Wuhan in 2019. At the time of writing, numbers of infected are still on the rise, with a mortality rate of around 1 percent.
Snakes were originally suspected as a potential source for the outbreak, though other experts have deemed this unlikely and proposed bats instead. As of February 2020, the search for the animal origin of COVID-19 is ongoing.
Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS-CoV)

SARS was first recognised as a distinct strain of coronavirus in 2003. The source of the virus has never been clear, though the first human infections can be traced back to the Chinese province of Guangdong in 2002.
The virus then became a pandemic, causing more than 8,000 infections of an influenza-like disease in 26 countries with close to 800 deaths.
Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS-CoV)

MERS was first identified in Saudi Arabia in 2012 in people displaying symptoms of fever, cough, shortness of breath and occasionally gastrointestinal problems such as diarrhoea. An animal source for the virus has never been officially confirmed, though evidence points to dromedary camels as a potential reservoir of infection.
The World Health Organisation has identified around 2,500 cases of infection in 27 countries since initial outbreaks, resulting in nearly 860 deaths.

What Is a Coronavirus?
 
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Calculon

unholy acting talent
Jan 20, 2006
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Mobiandi

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Jan 17, 2015
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The important distinction that has to be made is that while a symptomatic infectious cycle with COVID-19 usually leads flu-like symptoms, the vast majority of people haven't been exposed to this virus before, so there's no built up immunity to it. Elderly people are especially threatened because delivering a sufficient response to a first-time disease at their age is extremely difficult and taxing on their bodies.

And because it's a respiratory infection, it's more easily transmissible, so you get wild-sounding projections saying that it could spread to 70% of the country if left unchecked. But really they're common sense numbers when you consider the above and also recognize the fact that the flu has spread to 100% (if not 99.9999%) of the population. These flu viruses continue to circulate on a daily basis, but since we've seen most of the strains before, we can eliminate the virus before developing symptoms. This way, we eventually establish herd immunity and can protect old and immunocompromised people from getting sick and dying from routine diseases. It's why vaccines work.

Eventually nature will run its course and many people in cities with confirmed cases will be exposed to this COVID-19. And these people will be well-equipped to swiftly take care of it upon further encounters. But if you can slow that down with quarantine and other preventative measures, you can reduce how many people get sick at once which is the main goal
 

SKRusty

Napalm
Jan 20, 2016
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I'm confused about what you're trying to say here. Are you suggesting that we had this virus in North America at the same time as the outbreak in China?
All indications point to COVID-19 existing in Wuhan as early as the beginning of December. Thousands and thousands flew in and out between then and January 31st when the world was made aware.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...na-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf


Ehh, not the best advice here chief. While it’s a virus, it’s highly contagious and people should be treating it as an infectious disease. Downplaying it with “just another virus” is disingenuous. It has a much larger impact on people with compromised respiratory and cardiovascular systems and older populations.

H1N1 if it discovered today would have created more pandemonium. I am not saying to not be vigilant but things need to be put in context. Currently there are about 118,000 confirmed cases. The real number is likely 5-20 X that number because in most younger people it presents often as a common cold and nothing more. The danger of this particular strain comes with other conditions like heart or respiratory problems.

So realistically if the real cases is over 1,000,000 and deaths are at 4,600 the mortality rate is under 0.45%. SARS and MERS were near 10%. Luckily SARS and MERS did not spread as readily.

Unlike in the early days there have been advancements as far as treatment go. Remdesivir is in trials and has shown some positive results. Other anti-virals are also being investigated.

Panic is the largest enemy right now. The best strategy is to was your hands often. Disinfect your work stations and frequently used areas of houses daily and if you show symptoms of illness like a fever, sore throat, sniffles or a cough to isolate your self. Increase your vitamin C, Vitamin D, and zinc. Until you are having severe respiratory problems you are likely safer at home than possibly getting COVID-19 on top of the flu by visiting a health facility or doctors office.

The Lysol line of disinfectants are very effective at killing COVID-19 when left to soak surfaces for 3-5 minutes. Bleach is another great killer of viruses.
 

Janks

Pope Janks
Jan 7, 2010
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H1N1 if it discovered today would have created more pandemonium. I am not saying to not be vigilant but things need to be put in context. Currently there are about 118,000 confirmed cases. The real number is likely 5-20 X that number because in most younger people it presents often as a common cold and nothing more. The danger of this particular strain comes with other conditions like heart or respiratory problems.

So realistically if the real cases is over 1,000,000 and deaths are at 4,600 the mortality rate is under 0.45%. SARS and MERS were near 10%. Luckily SARS and MERS did not spread as readily.

Unlike in the early days there have been advancements as far as treatment go. Remdesivir is in trials and has shown some positive results. Other anti-virals are also being investigated.

Panic is the largest enemy right now. The best strategy is to was your hands often. Disinfect your work stations and frequently used areas of houses daily and if you show symptoms of illness like a fever, sore throat, sniffles or a cough to isolate your self. Increase your vitamin C, Vitamin D, and zinc. Until you are having severe respiratory problems you are likely safer at home than possibly getting COVID-19 on top of the flu by visiting a health facility or doctors office.

The Lysol line of disinfectants are very effective at killing COVID-19 when left to soak surfaces for 3-5 minutes. Bleach is another great killer of viruses.
Glad you’re the expert here over epidemiologists, health experts etc. I trust the 3.5% that’s come out from various health officials who have more insight than you.

The R0 for H1N1 was between 1.4-1.6, COVID-19 is being approximated at 2.2 (ie more infectious). H1N1 causes about 13,000 deaths over the life of the virus. We’re at 4,700 with no end in sight. An anti-viral is likely end of year at best, as we need trials and approval. It’s not some magic saviour in a month.

Sure - there’s infection in younger people that presents as nothing, but the young individuals are still carrier and infect people with underlying health conditions or old age. This comes with higher death rates for them. So unless you feel like it’s your right to be irresponsible to kill Gram-gram, you might want to consider hand hygiene, being cautious and treating the virus like an actual threat to others.

Unfortunately reading Wikipedia doesn’t make you an expert, so I’d stick to your current day job instead of telling people that coronavirus isn’t that bad. We are at the beginning of the epidemic in Canada, despite your thoughts on the virus.
 
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Kahvi

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Cases doubled here in the last day, all public events over 500 cancelled by government order people
 

Ace Rimmer

Stoke me a clipper.
Currently there are about 118,000 confirmed cases. The real number is likely 5-20 X that number
.
.
So realistically if the real cases is over 1,000,000 and deaths are at 4,600 the mortality rate is under 0.45%.
I hope you stretched before making that reach.

A claim like that without a source is irresponsible at best.

And an attitude like that is why more people will die than necessary.
 

Unlimited Chequing

Christian Yellow
Jan 29, 2009
23,614
9,553
Calgary, Alberta
Have to admit it would be hilarious if the Oilers make the playoffs and/or win the division just to see the league step in and cancel the season.

That's the whole bright spot for me in all this haha! Oiler fans can talk shit about our "customary first round exists" all they want, but they still will have only made the playoffs ONCE since 2006 even after all their customary first overall lottery wins :biglaugh:
 

Janks

Pope Janks
Jan 7, 2010
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The number of unreported or undocumented cases will be unknown for any outbreak of any name.

To make up bullshit numbers and claim the mortality rate is lower as a result is utter nonsense and deserves to be called out.
Just checked - SK didn't even have the MERS or SARS mortality rates correct...

"SARS and MERS were near 10%" - Wrong. MERS CFR is approx 34.4% and SARS is 15%. Giving you leeway, you might be in the same area for SARS. But last I checked - 34.4% and "around 10%" aren't in the same ballpark.

At the end of November 2019, a total of 2494 labratory-confirmed cases of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), including 858 associated deaths (case-fatality rate: 34.4%) were reported globally...
Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV)

The case-fatality ratio of SARS is estimated to range from 0% to more than 50% dependingon the age group affected, with an overall CFR estimate of approximately 15%
https://www.who.int/csr/sars/en/WHOconsensus.pdf

Maybe WHO is wrong and SK knows better ;)
 

FlamerForLife

Mon Seanahan
May 22, 2015
4,701
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Calgary
Meanwhile I'm sitting here patiently waiting for the UofC to shut down and start administering classes online.

But in all seriousness, be vigilant and if you notice any symptoms stay home and don't take the risk of passing it on to anyone else.
 
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FlamerForLife

Mon Seanahan
May 22, 2015
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2nd confirmed case in the NBA, the snowball effect of this is going to be crazy, the Jazz played the Raptors on Monday, who then held 2 public events yesterday so it's entirely possible that some Raptors players caught the virus from the Jazz players and then have now passed it on to the people that were at their events yesterday. Also if Gobert and other Jazz players had the virus before Monday they could've possibly passed it on to the other teams they played within the last week (Cleveland, New York, Boston and Detroit) the latter 3 all share arenas with NHL teams and Cleveland shares their arena with an AHL team.

Maybe the general public will begin to take it more seriously now.
 

Janks

Pope Janks
Jan 7, 2010
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2nd confirmed case in the NBA, the snowball effect of this is going to be crazy, the Jazz played the Raptors on Monday, who then held 2 public events yesterday so it's entirely possible that some Raptors players caught the virus from the Jazz players and then have now passed it on to the people that were at their events yesterday. Also if Gobert and other Jazz players had the virus before Monday they could've possibly passed it on to the other teams they played within the last week (Cleveland, New York, Boston and Detroit) the latter 3 all share arenas with NHL teams and Cleveland shares their arena with an AHL team.

Maybe the general public will begin to take it more seriously now.

It's just a virus dude, like any other of the 1000 we've seen o_O Just take some vitamin C, rub some dirt on it and you'll be fine man
 
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SKRusty

Napalm
Jan 20, 2016
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It would appear as if the NHL is going to do everything it can to ensure completion of this season.
 

DFF

Registered User
Feb 28, 2002
22,275
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This thing is spreading like crazy. If they can test everyone, the number infected is going to be huge

Before people jump on me, that just my opinion, I don't have any real data as does most others on here.
 

Fig

Absolute Horse Shirt
Dec 15, 2014
12,957
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The number of unreported or undocumented cases will be unknown for any outbreak of any name.

To make up bullshit numbers and claim the mortality rate is lower as a result is utter nonsense and deserves to be called out.



This is a good article and it also gives insight into an educated approach in predicting the unreported cases (grey vs orange line graphs).

It's actually a very good overall article worth reading.
 
May 27, 2012
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The PM, Trudeau, is going into self-isolation after his wife came back from the UK and developing flu-like symptoms. She is being tested for Covid-19.
 
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