The Nylander Chronicles Part XXI - Legal Drinking Age in the US Version

[Throw More Waffles]

I wonder if Dubas gave a lowball offer knowing that Nylander probably would hold out for more. The longer he holds out (up until December 1st), the better for our cap hit after this season.

If the team kept winning and morale was high, that lowball offer would stay till right near December 1st. But if the team was struggling without Nylander or it was affecting team morale, they'd have to compromise on market value sooner.

Maybe over the past 2 horrible games the players were distracted from all this, and Dubas decided to settle now, even though it's earlier than he had wanted.

All speculation of course. Just thinking out loud.

 

[MyBudJT]

If we wait another 4 or 5 days, a 6x6.5 contract can turn into a 6.25 mil cap hit in years 2-6. If we waited until late december, it would be a 6 mil cap hit in years 2-6.

 

[Gabriel426]

Said Nylander's camp wants to sign a long-term deal under the current CBA, rather than risking a short term deal and having to sign under whatever the next CBA is

This is interesting, in that, I wouldn’t think the owners would want to change the current CBA, so if it gets opened, I would think it would be by the NHLPA. Surely they wouldn’t open this one and come away with a worse deal. Or could they?

I don’t know. If I am a owner, I would think the current system sucks. Since if my team is making money, I have to share my profit unconditionally to teams who are in the red.
Just doesn’t make sense, in a way, Leafs, Rangers, Habs and Hawks fans are paying for teams like the Yokes and Panthers to draft top end talents and their fans to see the team(low ticket prices). At least to me, there has to be some sort of penalty in place for teams who are in the red.
Now from the players perspective, I really don’t know would they come out worse than now, there is always a chance they might. Like lowering the cap.

 

[Menzinger]

Not running elite talent out of the town?

I seriously don't get this idea that if we bridge him, he's gone. I don't see a reason to think so. Plenty of players that are important long-term for their team took bridge deals.

Yep.

It’s a relatively recent phenomenon too of guys getting 7-8 year deals posts ELC. So the notion that brdige deal = guaranteed trade doesn’t hold up to scrutiny.

It actually might end up being the smarter option for a longer term strategy ie would give the Leafs the ability to lock him up for more years if they opt to give him a longer term deal later.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

They don’t.

Average Annual Value.

Total contract value divided by number of years.

There’s your cap hit.

Well... no, it is more complicated then that when an rfa player holds out at the beginning of the season.

 

[MyBudJT]

Not running elite talent out of the town?

I seriously don't get this idea that if we bridge him, he's gone. I don't see a reason to think so. Plenty of players that are important long-term for their team took bridge deals.

There is a trend that a bridged player is more likely to eventually get traded than a non-bridged player, no?

Off the top of my head, I'm thinking of guys like Johansson and PK Subban...

 

[Gabriel426]

There has been rumours of teams wanting to bring contract length down from 8 to 5 years like the NBA, i think the owners would fight over that one if they could

If the PA wants that, then the owners will also want what the NBA owners have such as taking away all those NTC and NMC, original teams can always offer more....

At the end of the day, I just think the NHL as a whole is a very poorly run League. I will enjoy it if I am running a team that is losing money but hate it if my team is making profit.

 

[PromisedLand]

Interesting, thanks for the Lesson...

So the Leafs COULD do:

11
8.15
6.05
4.5
3.8
5.5

Won't work as the stupid rules don't work in the last year the increase is 45% (more than 35%); although it satisfies the 2nd rule of last year be at least 50% of the highest paid year it doesn't satisfy year to year change.

Below is the break down of the structure you presented

Years	$ values	% change
Yr 1	11
Yr 2	8.15	-26%
Yr 3	6.05	-26%
Yr 4	4.5	-26%
Yr 5	3.8	-16%
Yr 6	5.5	45%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I hate Tampa Bay so much right now. freakin tax havens. It is cap circumvention for nashville, and florida teams by default. How the hell is that fair?

 

[Menzinger]

I really don’t hold him in high regard as a source, but this would be fantastic news if true.

 

[PromisedLand]

If we wait another 4 or 5 days, a 6x6.5 contract can turn into a 6.25 mil cap hit in years 2-6. If we waited until late december, it would be a 6 mil cap hit in years 2-6.

Time to be patient. I hope Dubas went to Zurich to show the calculations to Willy and asked him to remain patient until late nov (max Dec. 1st). 500K savings on the cap is like having an extra 4th liner who can be an energy guy and may be also PK

We gotta be smart here. We won't be able to play this game with Matthews and Marner next year; as their first year cap hits would not fit under the cap. It sucks that Willy has to be the guy who has to be patient.

I think we should exercise some patience too. After all it is all about "The Cup" and we need all of them to fit and stay together to win the "Cup"

 

[Menzinger]

Said Nylander's camp wants to sign a long-term deal under the current CBA, rather than risking a short term deal and having to sign under whatever the next CBA is

This is interesting, in that, I wouldn’t think the owners would want to change the current CBA, so if it gets opened, I would think it would be by the NHLPA. Surely they wouldn’t open this one and come away with a worse deal. Or could they?

The talk is they’re (as in the owners) potentially going to try and cut down contract lengths down to 5 year max.

 

[Daisy Jane]

There is a trend that a bridged player is more likely to eventually get traded than a non-bridged player, no?

Off the top of my head, I'm thinking of guys like Johansson and PK Subban...

i think that had to do with other internal issues instead.
the only reason you are hearing NOW that Nylander might be moved is because he's not signed. everyone still is being told no, and that they want to keep him in the fold.

 

[Nineteen67]

The talk is they’re (as in the owners) potentially going to try and cut down contract lengths down to 5 year max.

I’ve heard that too, but I think that could wait until 2024 when the current CBA expires

 

[Menzinger]

There is a trend that a bridged player is more likely to eventually get traded than a non-bridged player, no?

Off the top of my head, I'm thinking of guys like Johansson and PK Subban...

Well Kucherov would be a recent counter example

 

[The Iceman]

If we wait another 4 or 5 days, a 6x6.5 contract can turn into a 6.25 mil cap hit in years 2-6. If we waited until late december, it would be a 6 mil cap hit in years 2-6.

I thought if Nylander didn't sign by Dec. 1 he was ineligible to play in the NHL this season.

 

[Muston Atthews]

I really don’t hold him in high regard as a source, but this would be fantastic news if true.

The numbers are pure speculation. The rest of it is encouraging though

 

[Kiwi]

If the PA wants that, then the owners will also want what the NBA owners have such as taking away all those NTC and NMC, original teams can always offer more....

At the end of the day, I just think the NHL as a whole is a very poorly run League. I will enjoy it if I am running a team that is losing money but hate it if my team is making profit.

I think shortening up contract length is coming from the owners side, since contracts are garenteed they would prefer less term apparently

That's the way I understood it at least, for what that's worth

 

[1specter]

I really don’t hold him in high regard as a source, but this would be fantastic news if true.

In fairness, Chris Johnston retweeted it

 

[Gabriel426]

I think shortening up contract length is coming from the owners side, since contracts are garenteed they would prefer less term apparently

That's the way I understood it at least, for what that's worth

Work both ways. Pretty sure owners would want their young superstars lock in for as long as they can, while on the other hand they don’t want to offer long term deals for heading into UFA at 30.

 

[diehardleafsfan9878]

DAMN IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I knew there was a catch

I really had my hopes up lol

so if we front load it 10M for the first year; then his last year has to equal at least 50% of that i.e. at least 5 million and then that stupid 35% rule also has to factor in. Man who the hell came up with this stuff? lol

May be such structure should be even more strict for teams that have no state income taxes. Leafs cannot really use their financial might to the fullest with these stupid rules.......

I believe it was the 2 people who now work for the Leafs.

 

[gabeliscious]

I really don’t hold him in high regard as a source, but this would be fantastic news if true.

I would be pretty surprised at those terms. 6 years x $7 million is pretty high. What could he possibly have been asking for if all this was to get him to come down to almost $7 million per.

 

[PromisedLand]

Delete Incorrect calculations

 

[Kiwi]

Work both ways. Pretty sure owners would want their young superstars lock in for as long as they can, while on the other hand they don’t want to offer long term deals for heading into UFA at 30.

I don't think most people have any issues giving good quality young players term but in almost every other situation it's undesirable, especially if contracts are guaranteed

Having players move more doesn't hurt either if your trying to drive interest in the game

I wouldn't be surprised if the owners wanted to attack those front loaded bonus Laden deals either

 

[Canada4Gold]

Time to be patient. I hope Dubas went to Zurich to show the calculations to Willy and asked him to remain patient until late nov (max Dec. 1st). 500K savings on the cap is like having an extra 4th liner who can be an energy guy and may be also PK

We gotta be smart here. We won't be able to play this game with Matthews and Marner next year; as their first year cap hits would not fit under the cap. It sucks that Willy has to be the guy who has to be patient.

I think we should exercise some patience too. After all it is all about "The Cup" and we need all of them to fit and stay together to win the "Cup"

The problem is, the cap savings are the way they are because the combined cap savings is equal to what Nylander loses, so it's definitely not something you would do on purpose. Let me explain by using the example someone else posted below.

EDIT -- Didn't see your 6.5Mx6 and I did it above based on 7Mx6. Sorry about that. Below is updated results.

Based on 6.5M over 6 years:
$39,000,000 total cap hit
2018-2019 - $6,500,000
2019-2020 - $6,500,000
2020-2021 - $6,500,000
2021-2022 - $6,500,000
2022-2023 - $6,500,000
2023-2024 - $6,500,000
(today) Cap Hit (2019-2020 to 2024-2025) = ($6,500,000 * 160/180 + $32,500,000) / 6 = 6,379,629
(today) Cap hit (2018-19) = $6,379,629 * 180 / 160 = $7,177,083
Total earnings = $39,075,228
2018-2019 cap hit – $7,177,083
2019-2025 cap hit – $6,379,629 - 120K savings per year for 5 years


and if we front load it and he signed today...
$39,000,000 total cap hit
2018-2019 - $10,600,000
2019-2020 - $7,200,000
2020-2021 - $5,400,000
2021-2022 - $5,400,000
2022-2023 - $5,200,000
2023-2024 - $5,200,000
Cap Hit (2019-2020 to 2024-2025) = ($10,600,000 * 160/180 + $28,400,000) / 6 = 6,303,703
Cap hit (2018-19) = $6,303,703 * 180 / 160 = $7,091,666
Total earnings = $38,610,181
2018-2019 cap hit – $7,091,666
2019-2025 cap hit – $6,303,703 - 196K savings per year for 5 years

*Using this example as a point to the above post*

Using the 1st example sure the normal cap masquerades as a 6 x 6.5 contract. But in reality Nylander is losing out on $722,222.22 by missing the first 20 days of the season. So he's only making $38,277,777.78 over the course of the contract. If he were open to making that amount of money over 6 years when the season started. He could have signed for that amount over 6 years. Guess what the cap hit would have been? $38,277,777.78 / 6 years = $6,379,629 which is exactly the cap hit one would get by intentionally waiting to now and pretending it's a 6.5 x 6 contract.

You say Dubas could go to Nylander and say hey Willy, wait until later, say 50 days into the season, you get your money, and we get a lower cap hit. Here's how those calculations go

Cap hit years 2-6 = [6.5*(130/180)+32.5)/6 = $6,119,074.07

You say look Willy, we can save almost $400k on the cap by waiting 50 days, just wait it out until then buddy, it's for the best. However factor in how much Nylander is getting paid. He's losing out on (50/180)*6.5 = $1,805,555.56 million in the first year. So he's only making $37,194,444.44 over the course of the contract. Which you may say, yeah that's his loss for holding out or whatever, and you're partially right, by waiting he's losing money, that's on him. But by doing it on purpose you're suggesting that this is a planned thing, that Nylander is ok with making that amount of money and he's ok waiting to accomplish it. But knowing he's ok to do that we can just do this instead. Give Nylander an offer of 6 x $6,316,037.73 right now for a total of $37,896,226.38. How does that work into the formula you ask? Well he's making less money you say? Lets do the math:

Money Nylander makes = (160/180) * $6,316,037.73 + 5 * $6,316,037.73 = $37,194,444.44

It's the exact same amount of money he gets by waiting 30 more days for a 6.5 x 6 offer. So there's no reason for Nylander to wait to wait. But surely the cap hit must end up higher. Lets see:

Years 2+ cap hit: [$6,316,037.73 * (160/180) + 31,580,188.65]/6 = $6,199,074.07

Which is the exact same cap hit as you receive by waiting. The 6.5 x 6 offer in 30 days time looks higher, but Nylander is getting the same amount of money, and the cap hit is the same as the 6 x $6,316,037.73 offer today. And that one today means Nylander is probably playing Saturday.

Unless Nylander wants to hold out and get what looks like the higher number to save face or something it makes no sense. If he's willing to take that amount of money over 6 years then sign it now for the altered number that has the same end result.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Thanks to @Auston Powers and his help in clarifying the restrictions on salary structure and because I have nothing else to do below are the best case scenarios:

6 year deals

6.5 x 6 (if signed today)

6 Years
Years	$ values	% change	2nd restriction
Yr 1	10.92
Yr 2	7.10	-35%
Yr 3	6.03	-15%
Yr 4	5.13	-15%
Yr 5	4.36	-15%
Yr 6	5.46	25%	50%
Total Value	39.0

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Yr2 to Yr 6	Cap-Hit	6.29
Yr 1	Cap-Hit	7.10

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

If signed on Dec 1st salary structure is the same cap hits change

Yr2 to Yr 6	Cap-Hit	5.92
Yr 1	Cap-Hit	8.67

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

6 x 6 (if signed today)

6 Years
Years	$ values	% change	2nd restriction
Yr 1	10.08
Yr 2	6.55	-35%
Yr 3	5.57	-15%
Yr 4	4.73	-15%
Yr 5	4.02	-15%
Yr 6	5.04	25%	50%
Total Value	36.0

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Yr2 to Yr 6	Cap-Hit	5.81
Yr 1	Cap-Hit	6.55

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

If signed on Dec 1st salary structure is the same cap hits change

Yr2 to Yr 6	Cap-Hit	5.47
Yr 1	Cap-Hit	8.01

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

7 year deals

6.5 x 7 (if signed today)

7 Years
Years	$ values	% change	2nd restriction
Yr 1	11.46
Yr 2	7.45	-35%
Yr 3	6.33	-15%
Yr 4	5.38	-15%
Yr 5	4.57	-15%
Yr 6	4.57	0%
Yr 7	5.73	25%	50%
Total Value	45.5

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Yr2 to Yr 7	Cap-Hit	6.41
Yr 1	Cap-Hit	7.23

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

If signed on Dec 1st salary structure is the same cap hits change

Yr2 to Yr 7	Cap-Hit	6.02
Yr 1	Cap-Hit	8.82

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

6 x 7 (if signed today)

7 Years
Years	$ values	% change	2nd restriction
Yr 1	10.94
Yr 2	7.11	-35%
Yr 3	4.62	-35%
Yr 4	4.62	0%
Yr 5	4.62	0%
Yr 6	4.62	0%
Yr 7	5.47	18%	50%
Total Value	42.0

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Yr2 to Yr 7	Cap-Hit	5.88
Yr 1	Cap-Hit	6.63

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

If signed on Dec 1st salary structure is the same cap hits change

Yr2 to Yr 7	Cap-Hit	5.51
Yr 1	Cap-Hit	8.07

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Whats the preferred deal here that works for both Leafs and Nylander?

You still can't do that breakdown because of this CBA rule

Additionally, under no circumstances may the stated Player Salary and Bonuses in any League Year of a Front-Loaded SPC be less than fifty (50) percent of the highest stated Player Salary and Bonuses in a League Year of that same Front-Loaded SPC.

It's the lowest year has to be no less than 50% of the highest, not the last year has to be 50% of the highest.