I think of the Devils goaltending situation this way:
Using whatever metrics you use to evaluate goaltenders within a game (sv%, sv% on "high quality" chances (or low- or mid-quality chances, the "eye test" (which would involve a more subjective judgement of "great saves" and "bad goals", etc).
In light of this, how often have the Devils had the better goaltender (in that game)? the worse goaltender?
Recognizing that there are likely a significant # of games when the difference is not significant, how many points might the Devils have left on the table simply due receiving a weaker goaltender performance in a given game?
Understanding that this is partially a reflection of the rest of the team (a team like TB is more likely to be able to get points even if their goaltending is not as good on any particular night) ... this seems like an analysis best suited for Bleed? Although some of you who are better with advanced stats than I may be able to come up with an answer as well
Since Hall has been injured and ESPECIALLY since we've had the likes of Rooney (IDGAF what anybody says, this is a BAD player at the NHL level, just like Rod Pelley), Gabriel and Gryba and other BAD call ups in the lineup on the regular, goaltending probably isn't gonna make too much of a difference. Not enough to keep us in the playoff race.
But as of the time Hall got injured, we were middle of the league in goal scoring and we had a pretty decent lineup, one that shouldn't have already been blasted far out of the playoff race by that point, but the goaltending was an embarrassment.
Most of this stemmed from the fact that until around December 18th, we only had one goaltender on the team giving us a decent start sometimes. Cory hadn't played a good game all year, until he came back recently. And when you see Keith Kinkaid as #1 on your team's goalie depth chart, that just screams that goaltending is a huge sore spot. When I look at every team around the league and what they have in goal, Keith Kinkaid would be the #31 goalie when sizing him up against the best goalie on every team in the league. Schneider (even assuming he somewhat bounces back) wouldn't be much higher than that either. We can say it's the defense, but when Kinkaid is the best goalie on your team, you're in a lot of trouble. You can get by with it for one year (see last season), but you're pushing your luck with it more than that. Imagine Scott Clemmensen following up 08-09 by doing it again in 09-10? I don't think he would have.
We've lost quite a few games because of goaltending this year. First one that comes to mind is the Nashville game in the third week of the season. Kinkaid allowed 3 poor goals, including the OT winner and a very weak shot he whiffed on in the 1st period. Next game where goaltending cost us was probably the Detroit game, which was Cory's first start. He allowed 3 goals, 2 were very stoppable and we lose the game by one goal. That's at least 2-3 points gone right there. Then Kinkaid had some good games, but also some bad games throughout November, since he was the only goalie we could start and hope for a quality start from.
Last night was a prime example of goaltending costing us the game. It's not the blowout games like St. Louis. It almost cost us against Minnesota, but we came back. It also almost cost us in December when Cory put us down 3-0 against Vegas and was yanked, and we came back to win. This horrendous goaltending also makes it harder to evaluate players and causes players to look a lot worse than they really are or to have more minuses and goals against than they probably deserve and would on teams with competent goaltending. Last night was just one example of goaltending costing us games, but at this stage in the season, we're long out of it, so it doesn't matter anymore. It hurt us the most in November and December.
