The NHLPA is in a lose-lose-lose situation...

Discussion in 'Fugu's Business of Hockey Forum' started by TonySCV, Dec 14, 2004.

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  1. TonySCV

    TonySCV Golden

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    ...and it's only reason I'm still mildly optimistic that there will be hockey this season. And it's not because I agree with the NHL or don't agree with the NHLPA - it's about the facts.

    Regardless of what side you're on in this - one thing is clear, the NHLPA is in a lose-lose-lose.

    They lose in negotiations - when the NHL loses LESS money by keeping the doors locked than they do having hockey, it pretty much means the owners get to call the shots. 24% pay cut or 48% - it's irrelevant without systemic change. As long as it's cheaper for the owners to keep the doors closed - that's what they are going to do.

    They lose if they accept a cap - the fact is players are going to get paid substantially less than what they are right now under either proposal.

    They lose if there is no season - If the NHL hires replacement players (and they will if the economics dictate they do), the NHLPA will either cease to exist, or take on a radically different form.

    So - after this last round of negotiations - the only remaining option is for the players to propose a counter-offer with some form of cost certainty if they have any desire to save the season and minimize the hit to their salaries.

    I guarantee you this - the longer they go without a resolution, the less the players will make when they finally reach one.

    So, if you were a player who needs to pay the bills - are you going to blow an entire year's salary knowing there's no upside to doing so? There's only downside. If there are enough sane hockey players left - they'll be meeting with the NHL again real soon.

    - T
     
  2. MarkZackKarl

    MarkZackKarl Registered User

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    What kind of idiots would pay to see replacements? The only reason the league is getting away with the lcokout is because the fans are too gullible to see reality. Thats why.

    PS. Youre the price is right tony right? Get some clips on your site!
     
  3. SuperUnknown

    SuperUnknown Registered User

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    I'd go see replacement players. :p:
     
  4. Vlad The Impaler

    Vlad The Impaler Registered User

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    I would.

    With a big smile on my face too.
     
  5. John Flyers Fan

    John Flyers Fan Registered User

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    You'd pay NHL prices to watch ECHL hockey ??? :help:
     
  6. SENSible1*

    SENSible1* Guest

    I'd go and send SSF an extra ticket.
     
  7. FLYLine27*

    FLYLine27* BUCH

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    Until you SAW the garbage on the ice. Can anyone say..XFL PART 2???????
     
  8. CarlRacki

    CarlRacki Registered User

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    What makes you certain he'd be paying NHL prices?
    If the players are earning substantially less, the owners would be smart enough to recognize the good PR they'd receive by reducing ticket price.
     
  9. Kaiped Krusader

    Kaiped Krusader Registered User

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    I don't think he said that. I think the league would be smart enough not to charge NHL prices for ECHL quality. They'd be getting players for cheap, and I'm sure they'd pass the savings along to the fans. They'd still make a profit and they'd continue to curry public relations favor for providing a cheap, (hopefully) entertaining product.
     
  10. waffledave

    waffledave waffledave, from hf

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    Not ever team is losing less money by staying closed. Teams like Montreal, Toronto, etc are actually losing money by having no hockey, and you gotta beleive the owners aren't going to let this go for long.

    But I do agree with you. The players are screwed and will end up losing money no matter what. I think Goodenow will end up losing his job over this just because the players lost.
     
  11. Brent Burns Beard

    Brent Burns Beard DontTouchMyDonskoi!

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    good on ya. are you also a fan who wouldnt force his team to overspend their budget by whining how its unfair your team cant sign Leclair, or Turgeon or Young or Holik or Lapointe ?

    or are you teh same fan who wont whine about your team making your star sit on the sidelines over a contract dispute and still support your team.

    i know you are a good fan, but why wont others who support ECHL hockey at NHL prices do so also during the season so the owners can control themselves ?

    dr
     
  12. Mothra

    Mothra The Groovy Guru

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    This is an interesting point.....not sure I would guarantee it....but it might play out that way.......
     
  13. TonySCV

    TonySCV Golden

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    You're forgetting that the NFL did just that - brought in scabs and the union caved. Yes, it was a rough go for a couple years but you'd never know it looking at the NFL now. Short term pain is needed for long term gain.

    Honestly... if the NHLPA waits so long that replacement players are needed. It proves 2 things - 1. The players with deep pockets are controlling the union and 2. they're oblivious to the inevitable long term downside. I continue to hold out hope that players are smart and they'll come back with a counter-offer in a couple of weeks after they're tired of slinging mud. (You'd better get your boots on, cause it's going to be brutal for a while.)

    Look... they've already got a huge # of players that have fled to Europe to play. If that doesn't show a lack of solidarity - nothing does. Hell, the NHL officials are showing more solidarity right now.

    - T
     
  14. TonySCV

    TonySCV Golden

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    There certainly are a handful of teams that did turn a profit (a handful out of 30), however those same teams will likely tell you with all other things equal the profit will be less this year than last just given the nature of escalating contracts and salaries. Brian Burke made that statement about the Canucks the other night referencing arbitration. Even though they turned a profit, the arbitration awards and rising contract payments will chew into that profit quickly.

    No one wants to see the sport die, so if it has to go on life support for a while while it gets a transplant to make things better long term, so be it.
     
  15. Pangolin

    Pangolin Registered User

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    It wouldn't be ECHL hockey. When they do ask for replacement players, some of the PA guys will jump ship.
     
  16. SuperUnknown

    SuperUnknown Registered User

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    I don't think it would be ECHL hockey. There are NHL hockey players who would play. Then there would be AHLers and players from various leagues in Europe coming over to showcase what they could do. Also, the ticket price is there to match demand. As demand would be lower, chances are ticket prices would be priced accordingly. Something like 20-35$ depending on the markets I'd think.
     
  17. TonySCV

    TonySCV Golden

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    Bingo. I would argue that a majority of the PA players that are making less than the league average would be more than happy to scab it. They seem to have no problem displacing players living in Europe who are now out of work. I don't think they'd mind displacing their highly-paid counterparts for the chance to play in the NHL.

    There's not the fan-player recognition either - certainly in the US. Most casual hockey fans in the US could care less WHO is playing so long as it's a competitive product.

    You'd get an AHL-NHL hybrid for a couple of years at worst. I think it's fair to also assume that owners will cut prices to incentivize fans to come watch hockey again.
     
  18. John Flyers Fan

    John Flyers Fan Registered User

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    The players would likely be veteran career AHL'ers, ECHL'ers and maybe some overage CHL players, along with some euro's that don't figure into the NHL's plans.

    I highly doubt it will come to this as the owners would be much smarter to try and wait the players out than to try and find 600+ replacement players and then try to pass it off as legitimate hocke, and get NHL fans to show up.

    It would make the owners look greedy and put the sympathy back with the players.
     
  19. no13matssundin

    no13matssundin Registered User

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    Count me in with one of the "idiots". Id pay to see replacement players.
     
  20. Wondercarrot

    Wondercarrot Le Doormat

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    Some of the PA will jump for sure and so will many Euro players who have the skill to play good hockey.
    Anyone wants to make a million or two rather than the 200 or 300K they are making on elite teams in Europe.
    How long do you think manny of the NHL players will wait while multi million dollar salaries are being handed out?

    I will pay to see elite Euros and hungry AHL'ers with talent when its my home team wearing a Sens sweater. Id rather be watching my original sens but when you get 15K-17K people watching a game its fun if the 2 teams are playing all out regardless.

    I also don't think they'll charge as much, for any number of reasons.

    The players are screwed IMO.
     
  21. waffledave

    waffledave waffledave, from hf

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    I don't think fans want to watch a bunch of Darron Langdons and Jim Dowds either.
     
  22. John Flyers Fan

    John Flyers Fan Registered User

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    You think they'll be handing out contracts of a million or two to replacement players ??? They don't want to hand those out to real NHL players. No wonder the owners are winning the PR battle :banghead: :banghead:
     
  23. SuperUnknown

    SuperUnknown Registered User

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    Players like Ribeiro and Dagenais would most likely cross the line (they said so in covered words). Prospects that aren't "sureshots" would also try to play, and there are many of them.

    Anyway, this is not really the point... I already pay to see whatever hockey there is, so regardless of the "caliber", I'd pay to see two teams play a high tempo game. Besides, in the USA, I'm not so sure that many people would notice... ;)
     
  24. Wondercarrot

    Wondercarrot Le Doormat

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    Your partially out to lunch.....are you suggesting that the NHL won't pay good playrs multi million dollar salaries???? but really...i do appreciate you suggesting that i don't understand the economics of what's going on....i suppose its only moderators that are able to wrap their brains around this...we mere posters are but the lemmings for ownership PR...give a break Captain Pompous.
    I absolutely think they'll entice the best players back with good salaries. the low end players won't get multi million dollar contracts obviously, but they will lure good players back with salaries that fall in line with the Cap they are offering. It would be a mixed bag at first, but like i said, once they get a few good guys making a couple million bucks the stampede will begin.
     
  25. FLYLine27*

    FLYLine27* BUCH

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    Please..maybe a handful of players would play...and i mean a HANDFUL....a dozen....any player who does will loose respect from there teammates and friends(Player friends)...I dont think they are willing to do that for a contract under 500k.
     
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