The Never-Too-Early 2019 NHL Entry Draft - Were not picking at 31

[Morgs]

Durzi is the highest drafted overager in the OHL. Hollowell is the 3rd, behind Connor Hall who has only played 4 games. They should be dominating, and anything but dominating would have been terrible.

And they are. Don't get me wrong, I would have much (much) preferred Addison to Durzi, but being one of the best defenseman in the OHL at any age is something we should be happy about. Hollowell has really surprised me, the guy looks legit way too good for the OHL, and not only should fit easily into the Marlies next year, but also probably would have been good enough for a top-4 spot this year.

SDA's production is terrible for what people expect out of him. You point to micro stats, but that's working on the assumption that stuff easily carries over. He'd be the oldest player in this draft, and his draft stock wouldn't have improved at all (since people want to heavily focus on his birthday). Plus, I'd debate the validity of any micro-stats being tracked, because from what I've seen of it, people are using polling techniques (taking randon or specialized samples and extrapolating data).

I'm not making excuses for him, but I do think there's a lot working against him and he's been better than the numbers suggest.

This article (Athletic is obviously payed) explains well why there's a lot of hope still for him:

From the moment he was drafted, he was always going to be a "project-pick" - youngest player in the draft and way too light. Raw skill is there, and for now we have to be patient and hope he develops the next 4+ years. Sky-high potential, but he needs to show production.

 

[93LEAFS]

And they are. Don't get me wrong, I would have much (much) preferred Addison to Durzi, but being one of the best defenseman in the OHL at any age is something we should be happy about. Hollowell has really surprised me, the guy looks legit way too good for the OHL, and not only should fit easily into the Marlies next year, but also probably would have been good enough for a top-4 spot this year.



I'm not making excuses for him, but I do think there's a lot working against him and he's been better than the numbers suggest.

This article (Athletic is obviously payed) explains well why there's a lot of hope still for him:

I mean, it is fine being happy with what there doing, but I don't think it makes the 2018 draft look particularly good past Sandin.

I have almost no faith in Mitch Brown's analysis for two reasons (I have the Athletic and have seen his work). Last year he said he couldn't properly track Bouchard because of the "complex" Knights defense. Dale Hunter has played straight up man to man defence for years, so if you can't recognize that, I don't know how much faith I can put in your ability to track on-ice events. The other is its heavily extrapolated data on a small sample size. You can't gain much from 6 games, as the info hasn't balanced out yet. It's just people eat up these advanced stats pieces, without realizing the disclaimer. I saw that an insane amount when people were posting his charts from last year, not realizing how tiny a sample it was off of. I mean, if I chose to take any NHLers corsi numbers from choosing 6 games at random, I could get some very strange results, as most advanced stats are worthless before 20 or 30 games where they eventually normalize.

 

[Morgs]

I mean, it is fine being happy with what there doing, but I don't think it makes the 2018 draft look particularly good past Sandin.

I have almost no faith in Mitch Brown's analysis for two reasons (I have the Athletic and have seen his work). Last year he said he couldn't properly track Bouchard because of the "complex" Knights defense. Dale Hunter has played straight up man to man defence for years, so if you can't recognize that, I don't know how much faith I can put in your ability to track on-ice events. The other is its heavily extrapolated data on a small sample size. You can't gain much from 6 games, as the info hasn't balanced out yet. It's just people eat up these advanced stats pieces, without realizing the disclaimer. I saw that an insane amount when people were posting his charts from last year, not realizing how tiny a sample it was off of. I mean, if I chose to take any NHLers corsi numbers from choosing 6 games at random, I could get some very strange results, as most advanced stats are worthless before 20 or 30 games where they eventually normalize.

I'm not saying that it needs to be taken as gospel, it's just more information we can use to value prospects in leagues that don't track valuable future prediciting stats like CF% and xG%.

I've really liked what Clair Cornish has done this year with his weekly updates to his OHL game score for defense/forwards/draft

 

[Prodigy MayD]

I mean, it is fine being happy with what there doing, but I don't think it makes the 2018 draft look particularly good past Sandin.
I have almost no faith in Mitch Brown's analysis It's just people eat up these advanced stats pieces, without realizing the disclaimer. I saw that an insane amount when people were posting his charts from last year, not realizing how tiny a sample it was off of.

This ^

Side news: 2018 draft is promising, Sandin looks to be a legit stud. Durzi+Hollowell are doing better than Dermott were doing as an overager, and should compete for top ice-time on the AHL club next season. (Potentially, joining our Marlies once their OHL season is over.)

Stotts and SDA have decent upside. SDA plays on a low-scoring team, so his offensive totals are a bit meh. If you watch his games, he clearly can outplay with raw puck handling skills other teams defenders, he needs to improve his shot, and his speed though.

 

[93LEAFS]

I'm not saying that it needs to be taken as gospel, it's just more information we can use to value prospects in leagues that don't track valuable future prediciting stats like CF% and xG%

I honestly think 6 games is worthless and will lead to flawed conclusions if you are going to use it to examine the micro stats. It's also putting faith into his ability, which I doubt if you mess things up like the Bouchard example. Most NHL teams, for example, won't rank a kid they don't have 20 viewings of on their actual draft board (but will take shots if a veteran scout is vouching for them if there 80 to 100 name list is gone by the 5th round or later).

 

[93LEAFS]

This ^

Side news: 2018 draft is promising, Sandin looks to be a legit stud. Durzi+Hollowell are doing better than Dermott were doing as an overager, and should compete for top ice-time on the AHL club next season. (Potentially, joining our Marlies once their OHL season is over.)

Stotts and SDA have decent upside. SDA plays on a low-scoring team, so his offensive totals are a bit meh. If you watch his games, he clearly can outplay with raw puck handling skills other teams defenders, he needs to improve his shot, and his speed though.

Dermott wasn't an overager. At the same age as these guys, he was on the Marlies. And, if you want to make that argument, I can say Andrew Nielsen was doing way better at 20 than either of these guys.

SDA gets knocked off the puck easily as a 18 year old in the CHL. I have trouble seeing his game translate.

 

[Morgs]

I honestly think 6 games is worthless and will lead to flawed conclusions if you are going to use it to examine the micro stats. It's also putting faith into his ability, which I doubt if you mess things up like the Bouchard example. Most NHL teams, for example, won't rank a kid they don't have 20 viewings of on their actual draft board (but will take shots if a veteran scout is vouching for them if there 80 to 100 name list is gone by the 5th round or later).

Most of them were more than 6 games, but I agree a small sample size doesn't say a lot as it takes 20 games minimum to stabilize most stats.

Bouchard is an interesting case though and I personally didn't know how to rank him. Poor skater, awful defensively, selfish shot selection (imo) but his metrics have always come away as fantastic. Just shows that stats aren't everything, and a lot more work needs to be done in the junior levels before the Brayden Point's stop going in the 4th round.

Also, I ninja edited the last post. My bad.

 

[Morgs]

This ^

Side news: 2018 draft is promising, Sandin looks to be a legit stud. Durzi+Hollowell are doing better than Dermott were doing as an overager, and should compete for top ice-time on the AHL club next season. (Potentially, joining our Marlies once their OHL season is over.)

Stotts and SDA have decent upside. SDA plays on a low-scoring team, so his offensive totals are a bit meh. If you watch his games, he clearly can outplay with raw puck handling skills other teams defenders, he needs to improve his shot, and his speed though.

Dermott was never an OA, and had a legit case as the best D in the OHL in his last season.

 

[93LEAFS]

Most of them were more than 6 games, but I agree a small sample size doesn't say a lot as it takes 20 games minimum to stabilize most stats.

Bouchard is an interesting case though and I personally didn't know how to rank him. Poor skater, awful defensively, selfish shot selection (imo) but his metrics have always come away as fantastic. Just shows that stats aren't everything, and a lot more work needs to be done in the junior levels before the Brayden Point's stop going in the 4th round.

Also, I ninja edited the last post. My bad.

Well, my issue with Bouchard wasn't how he was ranked. Its how he claimed he couldn't properly evaluate him analytically because of the Knights complex system. Hunter plays man to man and has for years. If you are watching games in the manner he claims, it should be clear what they are doing.

To be honest though, its been 4 drafts since point went in the 3rd round. I don't think that happens again. I mean, what CHLer with great basic stats like Point (who was in their first draft year), slipped heavily?

 

[Morgs]

Well, my issue with Bouchard wasn't how he was ranked. Its how he claimed he couldn't properly evaluate him analytically because of the Knights complex system. Hunter plays man to man and has for years. If you are watching games in the manner he claims, it should be clear what they are doing.

To be honest though, its been 4 drafts since point went in the 3rd round. I don't think that happens again. I mean, what CHLer with great basic stats like Point (who was in their first draft year), slipped heavily?

DeBrincat & Abramov off the top of my head. Not what I meant though, I just think there's much more to evaluating a player than just looking at their point totals and scouting their skill. Although imo production is arguably one of the most (if not the most) valuable ways to look at a prospect today, underlying stats would help us get to a new level of understanding prospects and smart teams like ours would be able to take even more of an advantage of the draft.

 

[93LEAFS]

DeBrincat & Abramov off the top of my head. Not what I meant though, I just think there's much more to evaluating a player than just looking at their point totals and scouting their skill. Although imo production is arguably one of the most (if not the most) valuable ways to look at a prospect today, underlying stats would help us get to a new level of understanding prospects and smart teams like ours would be able to take even more of an advantage of the draft.

Except for underlying stats to be of significant value, you need a few years of data to see how transferable these skills are.

Abramov is struggling in the AHL right now. Debrincat slipped but not significantly, and Yamamoto went top 25 the next year.

 

[member 147413]

Any interesting C prospects at the back end of the 1st?

 

[Peasy]

I wonder if someone like Suzuki falls into the 20s. I could definitely see it happening as he is having a somewhat of a disappointing season.

 

[Maplebeasts]

Dermott wasn't an overager. At the same age as these guys, he was on the Marlies. And, if you want to make that argument, I can say Andrew Nielsen was doing way better at 20 than either of these guys.

SDA gets knocked off the puck easily as a 18 year old in the CHL. I have trouble seeing his game translate.

Yes Durzi and Hollowell are not the same caliber of prospect that Dermott was. Although Nielsen looked good in his draft+1 season, there was people all over saying it was a false flag because his lateral mobility and poor footwork were going to keep him from being impactful as a pro. There were fatal flaws in Nielsen's game despite the numbers that Hollowell and Durzi don't have.

 

[Maplebeasts]

Any interesting C prospects at the back end of the 1st?

McMichael. Otherwise prey that one of the Alex's falls.

 

[93LEAFS]

I wonder if someone like Suzuki falls into the 20s. I could definitely see it happening as he is having a somewhat of a disappointing season.

He could, the big thing is, all it takes is one scouting staff/team falling in love with a prospect. It really depends on how much you value his IQ and passing vision, against his unwillingness to shoot, and his somewhat lackadaisical approach. I'd definitely take guys like Krebs and Turcotte over him, who I occasionally see put below Suzuki.

 

[facelessjoe1990]

what are the chances of Kaedan Korchak being available at our second pick?

 

[Prodigy MayD]

what are the chances of Kaedan Korchak being available at our second pick?

Moderately low. Most likely he goes early 2nd round. That being said, anything could happen

 

[WTFMAN99]

what are the chances of Kaedan Korchak being available at our second pick?

Moderately low. Most likely he goes early 2nd round. That being said, anything could happen

I like him and I would take him with our 1st. Not much difference between 25-45 in most cases, if you like the player, just take him.

He would be a fantastic addition.

 

[Peasy]

Tomasino seems like a potential C that could be picked around later in the first. Had a great goal last night. He currently isn't playing C, but has earlier in the year.

 

[Prodigy MayD]

Tomasino seems like a potential C that could be picked around later in the first. Had a great goal last night. He currently isn't playing C, but has earlier in the year.

Tomasino is another one of those guys I categorized as a winger at the NHL level, but in Juniors can play centre.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Tomasino is another one of those guys I categorized as a winger at the NHL level, but in Juniors can play centre.

He definitely started getting better once he moved to the wing.

Unless the Alex's fall, there are not really going to be too many centers to pick outside of the top 15-20 in this draft. The majority of the BPA are wingers, with the odd defenseman sprinkled in.

 

[LaPlante94]

Is Bowen Byram projected anything near our pick? Seen him a few times this year and was impressed every time.

 

[Prodigy MayD]

Is Bowen Byram projected anything near our pick? Seen him a few times this year and was impressed every time.

Unfortunately not, Bryam is considered a top 10 pick for most.

 

[LeafChief]

Is Bowen Byram projected anything near our pick? Seen him a few times this year and was impressed every time.

I believe he's ranked anywhere from 4-10.