The Never-Too-Early 2019 NHL Entry Draft - Were not picking at 31

[dangomon]

https://www.tsn.ca/craig-s-list-hughes-stays-ahead-of-kakko-after-world-juniors-1.1237475

Imagine walking into this draft with the 28th pick and coming away with one of Turcotte/Suzuki and Honka in the 2nd?

Button needs his head checked.

Give me Lassi Thomson in the second round all day. For the name as much as the player.

 

[Morgs]

Give me Lassi Thomson in the second round all day. For the name as much as the player.

I don't do my full rankings until around March, but I have Honka in my top-20, and both Turcotte and Suzuki in my top-10.

 

[dangomon]

I don't do my full rankings until around March, but I have Honka in my top-20, and both Turcotte and Suzuki in my top-10.

I don't pretend to be any sort of expert, but Honka recently has been a major let down for me. I wouldn't use my first on him (personally), and don't see him making it to our second. Based on Button's list though, you're right, if he's there ~60 you take him, for a second rounder his ceiling is incredible and his risk of busting is much less of a concern compared to the first round.

 

[Morgs]

I don't pretend to be any sort of expert, but Honka recently has been a major let down for me. I wouldn't use my first on him (personally), and don't see him making it to our second. Based on Button's list though, you're right, if he's there ~60 you take him, for a second rounder his ceiling is incredible and his risk of busting is much less of a concern compared to the first round.

I think Honka has been fine. He's the perfect modern-day defenseman in how his primary skill set is his skating and transition game. All I ever see on twitter is how he is just an absolute zone entry/exit monster.

Reminds me of one of my favourite players from last draft, Calen Addison.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Give me Lassi Thomson in the second round all day. For the name as much as the player.

We should partner him with Liljegren, in case Timmy ever gets in trouble (like falling down a well).

 

[Morgs]

Also, huge interest in Bobby Brink.

Bobby Brink at eliteprospects.com

A guy I love for prospects has him ranked #7OA. This is his write up for him:

Bobby Brink is a speedy winger who has exploded onto the map with little fanfare. A 50%INV in the USHL is unprecedented, and he's effective at both ends. He is an equally dangerous playmaker and goal scorer with great separation speed. As of today, it's possible Brink could go anywhere in the first two rounds, but I would not hesitate to put him in this group [After Hughes/Kakko]. He also beat out Vasily Podkolzin to win the Under-19 World Junior A Championship MVP award.

 

[93LEAFS]

I don't do my full rankings until around March, but I have Honka in my top-20, and both Turcotte and Suzuki in my top-10.

I'm not a fan of Suzuki. His game is way too passive, he doesn't try to impose his will on the game enough, and I don't think he's skilled enough for that to fly at the NHL level. He overpasses, and can easily slip in and out of games. It is a major reason he has such erratic consistency at the OHL level. His production for a guy you are expecting to go top 10, is pretty sub-par by OHL standards.

Honka is a nightmare in his own end, and has costly turnovers. I think he ends up a day 2 pick.

I agree on Turcotte, Button's been low on him for like a year and a half now, so it isn't a surprise. He's also been injured, so it will be key to see what he does in the back half of the season. He has the ability to move into the top 5 again.

 

[Peasy]

I don't do my full rankings until around March, but I have Honka in my top-20, and both Turcotte and Suzuki in my top-10.

I don't think Suzuki should be anywhere near top 10. He was extremely hot the first month but has really fallen off since then.

 

[Morgs]

Meh, I see Suzuki as using his High-IQ to be a more cerebral player than most guys we see in the OHL. He doesn't have any clear weaknesses, and just needs consistancy and to stop always looking pass. I think he's basically a guarantee for a top-6 C in the NHL. For me I bet on that on that before many other problems, and I see his upside a lot higher than most in this draft. Plus his NHLe and INV% is good enough to be at minimum top-15 in the draft at the moment.

Honka for me has great production, amazing transition skills, and one of the best skaters in this draft class.







I believe defense is easier taught than anything he can do, and in the modern day NHL I'd much rather a guy like Honka on my bottom or 2nd pairing driving play. I know he's not for everyone (plays a similar style to your boy Merkley ), but I'd bet on his upside.

 

[Kiwi]

Meh, I see Suzuki as using his High-IQ to be a more cerebral player than most guys we see in the OHL. He doesn't have any clear weaknesses, and just needs consistancy and to stop always looking pass. I think he's basically a guarantee for a top-6 C in the NHL. For me I bet on that on that before many other problems, and I see his upside a lot higher than most in this draft. Plus his NHLe and INV% is good enough to be at minimum top-15 in the draft at the moment.

Honka for me has great production, amazing transition skills, and one of the best skaters in this draft class.







I believe defense is easier taught than anything he can do, and in the modern day NHL I'd much rather a guy like Honka on my bottom or 2nd pairing driving play. I know he's not for everyone (plays a similar style to your boy Merkley ), but I'd bet on his upside.

I'm not going to get involved in the Suzuki debate because I haven't taken a decent look at him because I don't think he'll be in our pick range

I find Honka very interesting though, were probably picking in the last 1st (if we don't trade it) so I'd be very interested in a high upside kid like Honka in that position

The odds of getting a great NHL player in that region is pretty poor so you may as well take a homerun cut if you've got a ton of bust risk anyway

 

[93LEAFS]

Meh, I see Suzuki as using his High-IQ to be a more cerebral player than most guys we see in the OHL. He doesn't have any clear weaknesses, and just needs consistancy and to stop always looking pass. I think he's basically a guarantee for a top-6 C in the NHL. For me I bet on that on that before many other problems, and I see his upside a lot higher than most in this draft. Plus his NHLe and INV% is good enough to be at minimum top-15 in the draft at the moment.

Honka for me has great production, amazing transition skills, and one of the best skaters in this draft class.







I believe defense is easier taught than anything he can do, and in the modern day NHL I'd much rather a guy like Honka on my bottom or 2nd pairing driving play. I know he's not for everyone (plays a similar style to your boy Merkley ), but I'd bet on his upside.

My main issue with Merkley is an absolute nut-job. Pretty telling Guelph dumped him when they were trying to contend.

Suzuki is very far from a lock to be a top 6 center. If anything, he could easily be moved to the wing. I'd say he has some pretty clear weaknesses. He's not particularly strong and can easily be pushed off the puck. I think using adjusted junior scoring his scoring is pretty sub-par for a top 10 pick. Using Iain Fyffe's method from the books slap shot, I got him at 1.17 points per game. That isn't clear top 15. That is in line with guys like Mikey McLeod (1.19), Evgeny Svechnikov (1.24), Brandon Perlini (1.20), Nikita Scherbak (1.21), Mantha (1.24), Veleno (1.14), Jaret Anderson-Dolan (1.11), and Rasmussen (1.13) from recent years.

I think people exaggerate how easily defense is taught. He's not particularly strong, and he's bad positionally.

I also treat any stat that isn't tested with fully public available data with skepticism. How have those stats carried over to NHL success, people are making the assumption they do, but they haven't been around long-enough to know they transfer. It's also counting per zone-exits and entries, without measuring the failure rate, and how many high-risk turnovers they lead too.

 

[SprDaVE]

I hope Pelletier doesn't move up the rankings too much. I really think he's got a lot of qualities the Leafs look for in a player. Seems rather simple since everyone wants quality but his lack of size might shy away teams with management that overlook a player based on their size.

 

[93LEAFS]

I hope Pelletier doesn't move up the rankings too much. I really think he's got a lot of qualities the Leafs look for in a player. Seems rather simple since everyone wants quality but his lack of size might shy away teams with management that overlook a player based on their size.

I think the issue with small players, is that a guy like Pelletier is puck dominant at the lower level. I'm not sure he has the skating and puck skills to be able to create time on the puck at the next level which is why guys like Marner, Kane, Gaudreau, Point, Keller, etc excel. He most likely has to adapt to a being 2nd fiddle or 3rd fiddle on a top 6 line, that is an issue for a lot of junior players and is a major hurdle. It's what someone like Yamamoto is struggling with for example. The reason someone like Debrincat succeeded was that he was primarily used off the puck most of his time in junior as the 2nd option. He's a great finisher and knows where to be. For example, Ennis can be a line-driver on a 4th line, but when asked to do that further up the line-up he could never display that skill on a consistent basis. Guys like Arcobello etc have similar issues. We see it with Bracco. He's currently good enough at the AHL level to have play run through him, but will he ever be dynamic enough to hold that role in a top 9 NHL role. I have my reservations about that. Compared to someone like Grundstrom who has a much more plug and play type game. He's never been asked to be the most puck dominant player, so he's easy to project playing 3rd fiddle on any of the Leafs top 9 lines.

 

[SprDaVE]

I think the issue with small players, is that a guy like Pelletier is puck dominant at the lower level. I'm not sure he has the skating and puck skills to be able to create time on the puck at the next level which is why guys like Marner, Kane, Gaudreau, Point, Keller, etc excel. He most likely has to adapt to a being 2nd fiddle or 3rd fiddle on a top 6 line, that is an issue for a lot of junior players and is a major hurdle. It's what someone like Yamamoto is struggling with for example. The reason someone like Debrincat succeeded was that he was primarily used off the puck most of his time in junior as the 2nd option. He's a great finisher and knows where to be. For example, Ennis can be a line-driver on a 4th line, but when asked to do that further up the line-up he could never display that skill on a consistent basis. Guys like Arcobello etc have similar issues. We see it with Bracco. He's currently good enough at the AHL level to have play run through him, but will he ever be dynamic enough to hold that role in a top 9 NHL role. I have my reservations about that. Compared to someone like Grundstrom who has a much more plug and play type game. He's never been asked to be the most puck dominant player, so he's easy to project playing 3rd fiddle on any of the Leafs top 9 lines.

I've seen him live a few times since last season and his skating is pretty damn good to me. I'd say it's one of his main positives. He turns on a dime with speed and makes a lot of plays in the neutral with takeaways and zone entries. He's a nightmare to play against because he definitely doesn't take many shifts off.

He makes plays with the puck very similarly to Marner where not many players would make. He's obviously not as skilled and dominant as Marner but in terms of style, they are similar players, especially on the powerplay where everything seems to go through him because he can make terrific passes.

He has to get stronger of course and his perimeter shot could improve but I think he'd be a damn good pick with plenty of upside that late in the 1st round.

Like I said before, I would not be surprised if he jumped up in the top 12-15 of this draft, it will depend on his 2nd half this season I suppose.

 

[93LEAFS]

I've seen him live a few times since last season and his skating is pretty damn good to me. I'd say it's one of his main positives. He turns on a dime with speed and makes a lot of plays in the neutral with takeaways and zone entries. He's a nightmare to play against because he definitely doesn't take many shifts off.

He makes plays with the puck very similarly to Marner where not many players would make. He's obviously not as skilled and dominant as Marner but in terms of style, they are similar players, especially on the powerplay where everything seems to go through him because he can make terrific passes.

He has to get stronger of course and his perimeter shot could improve but I think he'd be a damn good pick with plenty of upside that late in the 1st round.

Like I said before, I would not be surprised if he jumped up in the top 12-15 of this draft, it will depend on his 2nd half this season I suppose.

My point is, there are very limited opportunities to be that player in the NHL. You have to be a pretty elite player to be asked. The question is, how does he adapt his game if he can't be the play driver at the NHL level. My main worry is that he isn't good enough to play that level of game in the NHL, and he has to transition to a secondary role. The level of player you need to be to be the most puck dominant player on a top 6 line, is extremely hard to reach, which is why so many junior guys who have played like that their entire life have to adapt. I'm not knocking his skating or skill level, I'm just not sure he has that level of skill where he can be that in the NHL, and if he doesn't, he could easily be an AHL/NHL tweener who ends up in the NLA.

Looking at the Leafs, when you have a guy like Marner, Matthews, and Nylander, who play tends to run through, and especially Marner on the PP, it is hard to fit another one of these guys in. It's why someone like Bracco is trapped in purgatory. To win the opportunity to play that type of game where you let the PP run through you, and are puck dominant at 5v5, is very tough. So, the next question is, if they can't be that, how do they transition into an effective NHLer. With players in the mold of Yamamoto or Pelletier, it is hard to figure that out.

I'm not against him in the 20's, but I think he has significant risk into the 10-15 range where some people are putting him.

 

[SprDaVE]

My point is, there are very limited opportunities to be that player in the NHL. You have to be a pretty elite player to be asked. The question is, how does he adapt his game if he can't be the play driver at the NHL level. My main worry is that he isn't good enough to play that level of game in the NHL, and he has to transition to a secondary role. The level of player you need to be to be the most puck dominant player on a top 6 line, is extremely hard to reach, which is why so many junior guys who have played like that their entire life have to adapt. I'm not knocking his skating or skill level, I'm just not sure he has that level of skill where he can be that in the NHL, and if he doesn't, he could easily be an AHL/NHL tweener who ends up in the NLA.

Looking at the Leafs, when you have a guy like Marner, Matthews, and Nylander, who play tends to run through, and especially Marner on the PP, it is hard to fit another one of these guys in. It's why someone like Bracco is trapped in purgatory. To win the opportunity to play that type of game where you let the PP run through you, and are puck dominant at 5v5, is very tough. So, the next question is, if they can't be that, how do they transition into an effective NHLer. With players in the mold of Yamamoto or Pelletier, it is hard to figure that out.

I'm not against him in the 20's, but I think he has significant risk into the 10-15 range where some people are putting him.

I mean that's the main issue with most prospects at the draft outside of a few reading your first paragraph. I definitely think he can be that kind of player you're alluding to, especially since he's been doing that all season against players his age level. He's got plenty of high upside NHL qualities to his game.

I don't really care about our current players or need, I'm looking at players that are good and have serious upside, especially in the first round. For example, if DeBrincat was drafted instead of Korshkov, even with our current lineup, he would be a tremendous young player to have in our arsenal, even if his trajectory to the NHL would have likely been different and less rushed because of our depth, which then brings us to Bracco. If he was on another NHL team with a lot less skill, it's possible he's already in the NHL getting his feet wet this season because he's been really damn good for the Marlies. Bracco will have no problems making it to the NHL if he keeps this up, but his skillset is much different than someone like Pelletier as well.

As for Pelletier, I definitely see that kind of player but I'm not making any allusion that I have seen every prospect as extensively as I have with him so it's possible there is someone better or that I'm wrong. With that said, I've seen similar smaller players (or very thin/average height) take over games like Pelletier in Junior that I was high on from previous viewing experiences that have gone on to have damn good start to the careers (Domi, Fabbri, Thomas, DeBrincat, Girard, Beauvilier, etc from the top of my head) and I would bet a lot of money he'll be a top prospect very quickly for whoever gets him

 

[93LEAFS]

I mean that's the main issue with most prospects at the draft outside of a few reading your first paragraph. I definitely think he can be that kind of player you're alluding to, especially since he's been doing that all season against players his age level. He's got plenty of high upside NHL qualities to his game.

I don't really care about our current players or need, I'm looking at players that are good and have serious upside, especially in the first round. For example, if DeBrincat was drafted instead of Korshkov, even with our current lineup, he would be a tremendous young player to have in our arsenal, even if his trajectory to the NHL would have likely been different and less rushed because of our depth, which then brings us to Bracco. If he was on another NHL team with a lot less skill, it's possible he's already in the NHL getting his feet wet this season because he's been really damn good for the Marlies. Bracco will have no problems making it to the NHL if he keeps this up, but his skillset is much different than someone like Pelletier as well.

As for Pelletier, I definitely see that kind of player but I'm not making any allusion that I have seen every prospect as extensively as I have with him so it's possible there is someone better or that I'm wrong. With that said, I've seen similar smaller players (or very thin/average height) take over games like Pelletier in Junior that I was high on from previous viewing experiences that have gone on to have damn good start to the careers (Domi, Fabbri, Thomas, DeBrincat, Girard, Beauvilier, etc from the top of my head) and I would bet a lot of money he'll be a top prospect very quickly for whoever gets him

Debrincat isn't a puck dominant player and never has been, he's been the finisher most of his career, with play tending to run through McDavid or Strome. Beauvillier is a better goal scorer than Pelletier, although his game isn't particularly great at the NHL level.

I think Bracco is likely to end up an AHL/NHL tweener. I don't think the odds are in his favor of playing his style of game at the NHL level. To get a top 6 role playing like that is quite the challenge. And, he isn't really a player who can fill a complementary role. Who knows what Akil Thomas is, he still in juniors. Fabbri had a good style, but his all-out style at his size has possibly contributed to his how injury prone he is.

He's doing those things in the Q, which is a decent but not great league. There is a long history of smaller forwards in the Q, not carrying over to the NHL. You got Ehlers, who has elite skating. Beauvillier has been good, but not really a standout in the NHL. Beauvillier absolutely isn't a guy you can run play through at the NHL level, and that has limited his effectiveness.

 

[Prodigy MayD]

He's doing those things in the Q, which is a decent but not great league. There is a long history of smaller forwards in the Q, not carrying over to the NHL. You got Ehlers, who has elite skating. Beauvillier has been good, but not really a standout in the NHL. Beauvillier absolutely isn't a guy you can run play through at the NHL level, and that has limited his effectiveness.

In addition, he isn't the biggest guy.

Wouldn't be surprised if Leafs go goalie and take Knight.
Would potentially solve the Andersen problem in a few seasons.

 

[93LEAFS]

In addition, he isn't the biggest guy.

Wouldn't be surprised if Leafs go goalie and take Knight.
Would potentially solve the Andersen problem in a few seasons.

I'd be surprised. From everything we know about Dubas, him drafting a goalie high would be unlikely. Plus, two of our better prospects are goalies.

 

[Cor]

Dustin Wolf is the one I want.

Dude oozes potential. If we can get him with our 2nd or even 3rd, 100% would.

 

[Kiwi]

I'd be surprised. From everything we know about Dubas, him drafting a goalie high would be unlikely. Plus, two of our better prospects are goalies.

Looks more like a winger or defenseman if any of the mock drafts I've looked at are any indication

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

Dustin Wolf is the one I want.

Dude oozes potential. If we can get him with our 2nd or even 3rd, 100% would.

I like he and Jones but would give Jones the edge just because he has the size to go with the skillset.

 

[Prodigy MayD]

Looks more like a winger or defenseman if any of the mock drafts I've looked at are any indication

I would hope for a larger LW/C.
Since our NHL RW is locked up for the foreseeable future.

Only reason I can see us maybe taking a goalie is because Knight/Jones/Wolf are all elite level goalie prospects. As much as Scott is having a great season and Woll has been playing well, a Knight/Jones/Wolf would instantly become a top goalie prospect. I am one that is never afraid of having too many good goalie prospects. Only need one to become that top elite goal tender.

 

[Kiwi]

I would hope for a larger LW/C.
Since our NHL RW is locked up for the foreseeable future.

Only reason I can see us maybe taking a goalie is because Knight/Jones/Wolf are all elite level goalie prospects. As much as Scott is having a great season and Woll has been playing well, a Knight/Jones/Wolf would instantly become a top goalie prospect. I am one that is never afraid of having too many good goalie prospects. Only need one to become that top elite goal tender.

I don't tend to like taking goaltenders in the first couple of rounds as a general rule, especially with Scott and Woll already in house

You also run into an issue about how you develop them all if there all around the same timeline, one of Scott or Woll is already going to probably end up in the ECHL as it is

 

[Prodigy MayD]

I don't tend to like taking goaltenders in the first couple of rounds as a general rule, especially with Scott and Woll already in house

You also run into an issue about how you develop them all if there all around the same timeline, one of Scott or Woll is already going to probably end up in the ECHL as it is

Yes, but for instance if we drafted Knight.
He could play the next 3 seasons in the NCAA. In three years time, who knows where Woll/Scott will be (if they are still on our team)

Again, I am not a fan of using a high pick on goalies, most of the time. But Knight/Jones/Wolf are truly high quality goalies that could be deserving of a 1st round choice.