The Never-Too-Early 2019 NHL Entry Draft - Were not picking at 31

[SeaOfBlue]

What? This draft is extremely strong for centers...

At the top, definitely. Hughes, Cozens, Turcotte, Newhook, Zegras, Suzuki, Dach, Lavoie... All expected to go in the top 15. After that, not sure there is even another center worthy of a first round pick. Maybe you can count McMichael, but he is more of a top half of the second round type of guy, and has been splitting his duties at center with Nathan Dunkley.

Even the second round kind of sucks. Maybe on top of McMichael, you could add a reach on guys like Blake Murray and a few guys who sniff around being centers while also playing a lot of wing, and will likely be wingers in the NHL. Really, after that top 15, it is pretty weak for centers with serious top 60 potential. Nothing really stands out, with a lot of them probably being more 3rd or 4th round grades in a normal draft, and perhaps settling in a solid middle 6 type of role if things work out perfectly.

 

[Peasy]

At the top, definitely. Hughes, Cozens, Turcotte, Newhook, Zegras, Suzuki, Dach, Lavoie... All expected to go in the top 15. After that, not sure there is even another center worthy of a first round pick. Maybe you can count McMichael, but he is more of a top half of the second round type of guy, and has been splitting his duties at center with Nathan Dunkley.

Even the second round kind of sucks. Maybe on top of McMichael, you could add a reach on guys like Blake Murray and a few guys who sniff around being centers while also playing a lot of wing, and will likely be wingers in the NHL. Really, after that top 15, it is pretty weak for centers with serious top 60 potential. Nothing really stands out, with a lot of them probably being more 3rd or 4th round grades in a normal draft, and perhaps settling in a solid middle 6 type of role if things work out perfectly.

I mean thats pretty standard for most drafts. Why would centers with high upside go later? Foudy went 18th last draft and I don't see him really becoming anything more than a 3rd line C. Centers are the highest drafted position in the draft so of course there won't be many high end ones left near the 2nd round.

Who knows, maybe someone like Krebs falls like Veleno did last year and you get lucky.

 

[93LEAFS]

What? This draft is extremely strong for centers...

Yeah, at the top it is very good, and one of the deeper one in a while (it is no 2015 with McDavid, Eichel, Strome, Zacha and Barzal consensus top 10 to 15 guys). To be honest though, when you are drafting where the Leafs are likely to be drafting, we shouldn't really be expecting a sizable quality difference year to year, and that carries over to positions. I don't think the difference between centers available between 25 and 31 tends to vary too much.

 

[DraftGuru]

The more I see Connor McMichael, the more I like him. Such a cerebral player who doesn't seem to have many weaknesses. 2G and 2A tonight. Also hitting at a 55%+ clip in the faceoff circle.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I mean thats pretty standard for most drafts. Why would centers with high upside go later? Foudy went 18th last draft and I don't see him really becoming anything more than a 3rd line C. Centers are the highest drafted position in the draft so of course there won't be many high end ones left near the 2nd round.

Who knows, maybe someone like Krebs falls like Veleno did last year and you get lucky.

You can usually find guys with top 9 upside going into the third round. Not too many guys like that this year.

You can just look at the board. Most of the centers are either later round type prospects, top 15 prospects, or not really true centers. There are maybe a handful of exceptions, but far less than in normal drafts. I would be shocked (at this point) if there were more than maybe 10 centers taken after the top 15 until the 4th round, unless teams reached for centers, or there were a few who dropped out of the top 15. I can not remember another draft where it was that sparse on center talent in those late 1st/2nd/3rd rounds. Usually you can find guys like Robert Thomas, ROR, etc. in there. Nothing really like that comes to mind outside of McMichael.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Watching Rimouski-Sherbrooke on the CHL Showcase.

Poulin has some great wheels, especially for someone his size. I am also impressed with Bailey Peach. He is not big, and his production is nothing special, but he has really started to get his game together after an inconsistent rookie season and an injury to start this year. He does not look like a speedster, but he has great vision and is a strong playmaker. It is early, but Patrick Guay is someone to look out for in 2020 that he has figured out his slow start to his rookie year.

I never knew Sherbrooke was this fast of a team. They could make some noise going forward, especially since they are so young. They have also been outplaying Rimouski hard. I have not even noticed Lafreniere, which is very impressive.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

The more I see Connor McMichael, the more I like him. Such a cerebral player who doesn't seem to have many weaknesses. 2G and 2A tonight. Also hitting at a 55%+ clip in the faceoff circle.

Would love to pick this guy up in the draft. He tears apart my Rangers so I kind of hate him but he's a really good player. Could see him sneaking into the top 20 by year end.

 

[Per Sjoblom]

Philip Broberg is a promising defender with elite skating.

 

[A4T1L6]

We gotta hire the Canucks USA scout; Boeser, Gaudette, Hughes, Madden, Demko, Rathbone, Lockwood.

 

[Cor]

I’m down to draft McMichael just so we could also use the McJesus nickname and piss off Oilers fans

 

[SeaOfBlue]

We gotta hire the Canucks USA scout; Boeser, Gaudette, Hughes, Madden, Demko, Rathbone, Lockwood.

Considering where those guys were drafted, it is really not that impressive. I guess compared to the old Leafs regime it is impressive, but this is pretty much just a bunch of guys punching their draft slot weight, plus Boeser and Gaudette doing better than expected.

The Leafs have already revamped their USA scouting, mostly by adding more resources in the area:
Tim Speltz – Head Scout/Northwestern United States Regional Scouting
Scott Bell – Minnesota Regional Scouting
Tony Martino – Chicago Regional Scouting
Noelle Needham – Midwestern United States Regional Scouting
Jim Vesey Sr. – Northeastern United States Regional Scouting
John Kisil – Southern Ontario/Michigan/Ohio Regional Scouting

Plus our Director of Amateur scouting used to be our Director of US scouting, and a great US area scout for us for a long time.

The main difference is the Leafs are probably going to hit areas outside of Ann Arbor a little bit harder these days. Ever since Burke left and the old regime of scouts left, the Leafs have exclusively been targeting the USDP for American prospects. In 2014 they targeted a couple of USHL guys in Piccinich and Joshua, but they would not have to go far out of the way to see either of them play. The USDP plays against USHL teams, and Youngstown (Piccinich's team) is not far away from the OHL stratosphere. Pretty much outside of Ann Arbor, they targeted the US enough to maybe spot a few guys they like every 5 years. These days, that'll probably change.

Scott Bell was the guy responsible for Jake Guentzel I am pretty sure. It was really the only pick out of his region, but that was him. He is pretty highly regarded in Minnesota, and he came here because the Leafs promised him free rein for any team/league in Minnesota. Noelle Needham is a total rookie, but Dubas was highly impressed during a blind interview, and she is apparently going to bridge the rest of the gap between Minnesota and Chicago. East of Chicago is covered by the guys we already had previously, and all are pretty highly regarded in those regions.

 

[justafan22]

I could see another Bouthillier pick from the CHL, but I agree with the premise that it is unlikely we take one high.

I could see Knight being intriguing in our pick-range if he's on the board. Any pick that late is something like 30 to 40% chance of actually becoming something valuable (top 9 forward, top 5 D, starter). I would think the odds with Knight are even more extreme, but if he hits, he's a franchise goaltender. Although, he could also easily turn into Jack Campbell or Al Montoya (but way higher picks were thrown at those guys).

Right now, I'm just expecting us to trade the pick if we can find a top 4 RHD rental, or even as a package for a guy in a McDonagh type deal.

I'm sure a couple guys I'll like in the 25-31 range will emerge throughout the year and as the projections get significantly less volatile.

If it's a Mcdonagh type situation, the pick is gone.

They got lucky with Sandin, and need to be in a win now mode.

Obviously having picks is crucial but a 1st rounder is at best 2 years away

 

[Fogelhund]

If it's a Mcdonagh type situation, the pick is gone.

They got lucky with Sandin, and need to be in a win now mode.

Obviously having picks is crucial but a 1st rounder is at best 2 years away

You know Dubas and his overage picks... What if he goes for Brett Leason late in the first... if we still have the pick? Is he a kid who will be two years away?

 

[Duffman955]

You know Dubas and his overage picks... What if he goes for Brett Leason late in the first... if we still have the pick? Is he a kid who will be two years away?

Honestly, I don't have an issue with drafting overage players. If your philosophy is to pick the best player, age shouldn't matter as long as you factor in development time.

Brett Leason for all we know can be the next Pearson

 

[justafan22]

Honestly, I don't have an issue with drafting overage players. If your philosophy is to pick the best player, age shouldn't matter as long as you factor in development time.

Brett Leason for all we know can be the next Pearson

Again, that's fine, but if the leafs can trade their pick for 1 1/2 seasons for a dman who can help them win a cup in that time period, you trade the late 1st, every time.

 

[jfc64]

Rasmus Sandin 2

 

[93LEAFS]

Some interesting stuff to post about.

Firstly, Button released his new rankings today. If we can get Alex Turcotte in the 20's I'll be ecstatic. He's a top 10 talent.



Recently Mark Edwards of HockeyProspect.com did a radio hit on The Pipeline Show where he talks about a few guys. Here is the link for that.

 

[Maplebeasts]

Some interesting stuff to post about.

Firstly, Button released his new rankings today. If we can get Alex Turcotte in the 20's I'll be ecstatic. He's a top 10 talent.



Recently Mark Edwards of HockeyProspect.com did a radio hit on The Pipeline Show where he talks about a few guys. Here is the link for that.

Yeah I saw the list earlier today and just about spit out my coffee. He also really seems to under rate Alex Newhook a ton. If Turcotte is available anywhere in the twenties he's a prospect that you absolutely move up for.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

Just watched the SSM vs Hamilton game. Rookie Goaltender for SSM Ethan Taylor could be one to watch probably later in the draft. I can't seem to find him in any draft rankings, unless someone has a link to a ranking that has him listed?

He is 6-1-1 on the year with around a .900sv% after today's 5-1 win. He is pretty sound positionally. Doesn't waste any movement. Uses short little shuffles to get around the crease so he stays square to the puck. Excellent rebound control. Everything was sticking to him.

He is 6'1 so not a big goalie nor small. He could present himself a little bigger to the top half of the net. There was a few times where he went down on high shots and was giving away too much space up top. He could use some work with his leg strength and edge work on the long cross crease pushes because he didn't look smooth on some of his lateral movements.

Good positioning and a quiet game is a reason to maybe look at him later in the draft.

 

[cupcrazyman]

Do the Leafs have all their picks for 2019 ? Did we aquire extra or trade any away ?

 

[Kiwi]

Do the Leafs have all their picks for 2019 ? Did we aquire extra or trade any away ?

Leafs 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 7th (we traded our 6th at last year's draft)
Blues 4th (Soshnikov)
Dallas 7th (it's a 6th if Carrick plays but that won't happen)

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Just watched the SSM vs Hamilton game. Rookie Goaltender for SSM Ethan Taylor could be one to watch probably later in the draft. I can't seem to find him in any draft rankings, unless someone has a link to a ranking that has him listed?

He is 6-1-1 on the year with around a .900sv% after today's 5-1 win. He is pretty sound positionally. Doesn't waste any movement. Uses short little shuffles to get around the crease so he stays square to the puck. Excellent rebound control. Everything was sticking to him.

He is 6'1 so not a big goalie nor small. He could present himself a little bigger to the top half of the net. There was a few times where he went down on high shots and was giving away too much space up top. He could use some work with his leg strength and edge work on the long cross crease pushes because he didn't look smooth on some of his lateral movements.

Good positioning and a quiet game is a reason to maybe look at him later in the draft.

I was thinking he may be an option, but I do not know how well he fits the Leafs' timeline. He is on my initial draft board, but there are almost 400 other guys on there too. I feel like this is a good year for the Leafs to draft an NCAA goalie. There are few good ones who will probably go a little bit later on, because I feel like they will be overshadowed by a lot of the top CHL goalies. Europe may have a few also, but none really stand out to me this year. Alnefelt is probably the most touted, but I'd be shocked if he is one of the first 5 drafted. Everyone I have in Europe is from Sweden outside of two Russian goalies (although one - Amir Miftakhov - would probably not even make my condensed board).

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

I was thinking he may be an option, but I do not know how well he fits the Leafs' timeline. He is on my initial draft board, but there are almost 400 other guys on there too. I feel like this is a good year for the Leafs to draft an NCAA goalie. There are few good ones who will probably go a little bit later on, because I feel like they will be overshadowed by a lot of the top CHL goalies. Europe may have a few also, but none really stand out to me this year. Alnefelt is probably the most touted, but I'd be shocked if he is one of the first 5 drafted. Everyone I have in Europe is from Sweden outside of two Russian goalies (although one - Amir Miftakhov - would probably not even make my condensed board).

I would like to see us go for a goalie from Europe just for the timeline aspect. I've always been a fan of Finnish goalies. We're starting see a big surge of Russian goalies the last few years. Seems to be a lot of CHL goalies eligible this year.

I'll try to do a write up for 1-2 goalies a week

 

[BigBlu]

Considering where those guys were drafted, it is really not that impressive. I guess compared to the old Leafs regime it is impressive, but this is pretty much just a bunch of guys punching their draft slot weight, plus Boeser and Gaudette doing better than expected.

The Leafs have already revamped their USA scouting, mostly by adding more resources in the area:
Tim Speltz – Head Scout/Northwestern United States Regional Scouting
Scott Bell – Minnesota Regional Scouting
Tony Martino – Chicago Regional Scouting
Noelle Needham – Midwestern United States Regional Scouting
Jim Vesey Sr. – Northeastern United States Regional Scouting
John Kisil – Southern Ontario/Michigan/Ohio Regional Scouting

Plus our Director of Amateur scouting used to be our Director of US scouting, and a great US area scout for us for a long time.

The main difference is the Leafs are probably going to hit areas outside of Ann Arbor a little bit harder these days. Ever since Burke left and the old regime of scouts left, the Leafs have exclusively been targeting the USDP for American prospects. In 2014 they targeted a couple of USHL guys in Piccinich and Joshua, but they would not have to go far out of the way to see either of them play. The USDP plays against USHL teams, and Youngstown (Piccinich's team) is not far away from the OHL stratosphere. Pretty much outside of Ann Arbor, they targeted the US enough to maybe spot a few guys they like every 5 years. These days, that'll probably change.

Scott Bell was the guy responsible for Jake Guentzel I am pretty sure. It was really the only pick out of his region, but that was him. He is pretty highly regarded in Minnesota, and he came here because the Leafs promised him free rein for any team/league in Minnesota. Noelle Needham is a total rookie, but Dubas was highly impressed during a blind interview, and she is apparently going to bridge the rest of the gap between Minnesota and Chicago. East of Chicago is covered by the guys we already had previously, and all are pretty highly regarded in those regions.

Fantastic info. Thanks!

I remember reading how St. Louis was becoming a bit of a prospect hotbed, with ex-Blues players contributing in the area. I assume this would be within Needham's locus as well.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Fantastic info. Thanks!

I remember reading how St. Louis was becoming a bit of a prospect hotbed, with ex-Blues players contributing in the area. I assume this would be within Needham's locus as well.

Yes. She is probably the one who will make sure we look more thoroughly in the NAHL and USHL regions.

Before we only had a Chicago area scout (doing who knows what, because there is only like one team in Chicago... I am surprised he did not leave with Hunter) so it was understandable why we did not tap much out of there before.