The Never-Too-Early 2019 NHL Entry Draft - Were not picking at 31

Discussion in 'Toronto Maple Leafs' started by Warden of the North, Jun 22, 2018.

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  1. 93LEAFS

    93LEAFS Registered User

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    Okay, I did this out of slight boredom, but I also wanted to show how the draft works to an extent. The NHL is more extreme because you have 31 different lists. To illustrate how the draft is, I created a mock by taking 8 independent "expert" (I use this term loosely) lists that were all released this month. I used McKenzie, HP, Button, Pronman, FC, ISS, Sam Cosentino, and the Draft Analyst. So, I randomized the order and set the draft in the NHL style. So, first overall picks at 1, 9, 17, or 8, 16, 34. I think some people will be a bit surprised (I've done this for other years if people want to see the results for those. Since this is such a large post, I'll put the table and results in a "quote." The first player outside anyone's top 31 to get drafted was 43rd overall. Most people got guys they had in the late teens in the late first. McKenzie's list also tends to run the closest in regards to losing names. Here is the mock I created.

    My goal was to stop when I ran out of top 31 guys, but since McKenzie always ends the earlies (and he goes to 80 or so), I decided to continue. Either way, it went 2 more spots. But, a few people still had people remaining.

    ISS: Korzack (22),
    HP: Hunter Jones (25),
    McKenzie: None
    Button: Afanasyev (27), Marshall Warren (31)
    FC: Korzack (31)
    DA: Strondala (25), Constantinou (26), Teply (29), Drew Helleson (30), Ryder Donovon (31),

    Pronman had none left but only went to 26. Some of his HM were still around.

    This really shows how much of a crapshoot the draft can be. If I did another draft, using the exact same lists but different order, I could get dramatically different results. I've done it for prior drafts. Its crazy how often people are saved from bad picks or how people luck out.
     
    Last edited: Jan 29, 2019
  2. 93LEAFS

    93LEAFS Registered User

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    He'll be outside of a couple of actual NHL teams top 26. Not too surprising. Doesn't mean he won't go top 26.
     
  3. Prodigy MayD

    Prodigy MayD Registered User

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    Did you see the players I listed?
     
  4. 93LEAFS

    93LEAFS Registered User

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    Here, I'm working on a site which tracks articles, rankings and mock drafts for prospects. Here's a list of everyone that has a 2019 page.

    Category:2019 NHL Draft Prospects - Prospectpedia

    Here's what a page for a high-pick is looking like

    Jack Hughes - Prospectpedia

    There could be some names in their you don't have. Not sure if you don't have them if they are worth tracking. I generally get names by adding names from rankings, hlinka rosters, etc. Still, stuff piles up. Trying to add the guys I didn't have on the current FC list I didn't have. I have like 95% of the people ranked by HP, Pronman, McKenzie, Button, ISS, and some others. Maybe it will be of use to you.
     
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  5. Prodigy MayD

    Prodigy MayD Registered User

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    Low-key hoping we take a goalie in the 2nd round.

    Leafs should Target:
    Pyotr Kochetkov
    Hunter Jones
    Dustin Wolf

    Lesser extent:
    Trent Miner
    Mads Sogaard
    Ilya Konovalov
     
  6. Walshy7

    Walshy7 Registered User

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    That pick is likely to be out 1st pick, no point wasting it in a position that is such a crapshoot. Last time I did the full check there were more number 1 goalies picked rounds 4-7 than 1-3.

    We traded away a forward and a d prospect too. Bpa all the way and that rarely will be a goalie.
     
  7. dangomon

    dangomon Registered User

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    I'd venture to guess that the number of goalies drafted in rounds 4-7 are more than 10-20 times the number drafted in rounds 1-3 so that's not exactly surprising.
     
  8. Walshy7

    Walshy7 Registered User

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    right because it makes way more sense to use one of those picks rather than an early pick. Especially when you have no 1st. Miss on that goalie and we could screw up our pipeline of players very quickly, of course miss on anyone with that pick same thing will happen. Just seems goalies miss far more often,
     
  9. Warden of the North

    Warden of the North The Matthews Show

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    Well, this aged well
     
  10. darrylsittler27

    darrylsittler27 Registered User

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    So, we gave a first rounder. How does this year's draft rate? Weak, strong, deep ?
     
  11. Walshy7

    Walshy7 Registered User

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    on Hf boards?
    Jan 28th this draft is probably average
    Jan 29th this is a super draft any player drafted in the 1st round will be a franchise player
     
  12. darrylsittler27

    darrylsittler27 Registered User

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    Umm don't like those ones. My guess Dubas didn't see much down there. Or wants a higher pick.
     
  13. 93LEAFS

    93LEAFS Registered User

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    I'd rate it as sub-par. I think it is on the weaker side of recent drafts with 2017, 2014 and 2012. In general though, there doesn't tend to be a large disparity between drafts after about pick 10 or 15 outside of extreme outliers (such as 2003). Some drafts it just tends to be harder to find the gems. The value of a late first doesn't tend to change dramatically.
     
  14. Duffman955

    Duffman955 Registered User

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    I like that Russian winger Afnayesev or whatever his name is. Do you think we can grab him with our 2nd rounder?
     
  15. Morgs

    Morgs #16 #29 #34 #44 #91

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    The more Im studying this draft, the more i believe the difference between 16 and 50 is minimal at best.

    I could see guys I would've been interested in the 1st round like Hoglander, Kolyachenok, or Honka being there for our 2nd pick. I'll only really be sad if guys like Suzuki, Turcotte, Zegras, and Brink (who i feel are being severly underrated) are there when LA goes to pick.
     
  16. Prodigy MayD

    Prodigy MayD Registered User

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    That is the absolute correct opinion to have.
    That is also why I am saying the Leafs should take a goalie.
    You can get the 2nd best goalie in the draft in the late 2nd in most drafts.
     
  17. TheMadHatTrick

    TheMadHatTrick Registered User

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    Not sure any of these guys make it to pick 56 but:

    Tomasino
    Spiridonov
    Korczak
    Rees
    Dorofeyev
    Legare
    Sogaard
    Thomson
    Zaitsev
    Mironov
     
  18. kk87

    kk87 Registered User

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    I’m sure this is probably just wishful thinking, but I wonder if the lack of a first round pick will deter our management team from taking liberties with our 2nd rounder, by passing up on a potential steal to take someone ranked much lower. For instance, if we didn’t have a 1st last year, maybe we would’ve taken Addison at 52 instead of reaching for an overager in Durzi as our first pick of the draft.
     
  19. Morgs

    Morgs #16 #29 #34 #44 #91

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    I'm not so big on goalies in the first two rounds, especially when it's looking like we have two of the top-15 goalie prospects in hockey at this point and neither of them have even played an AHL game yet.

    I like the idea of drafting at least 1 goalie a year to keep the pipeline moving, but I also believe we can get a solid NHL player in the 2nd round that will be cheap depth for us in 2-3 years.
     
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  20. Prodigy MayD

    Prodigy MayD Registered User

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    I understand that.
    But until a goalie plays at the NHL/AHL level they are still magic beans. Lots of goalies in the past have looked good in juniors but couldn't translate.

    I think this is a draft where you could get a very high quality goalie prospect in that 2nd round. I mean our 2nd is practically a 3rd as is.
     
  21. Morgs

    Morgs #16 #29 #34 #44 #91

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    Here are the 31 starters in the NHL by draft round:

    1st - 7
    2nd - 6
    3rd - 5
    4th - 1
    5th - 2
    6th - 1
    7th+ - 3
    Undrafted - 6

    Goalies are an absolute crapshoot. Almost 1/3 of the starters in this league were undrafted FA or taken in the 7th round (Andersen I counted as a 3rd, but was first drafted with a 7th).

    If I'm the Leafs, I continue to draft goalies in the 4th or later (one each draft) and keep stocking the cupboards. We have two of the best goalie prospects at the moment, and arguably the 2nd best goalie in the world signed for another 3 years. We need to keep pumping cheap depth forwards/defenseman to build around Matthews/Tavares/Nylander/Marner/Rielly/Dermott to ensure we keep our core together.
     
  22. 93LEAFS

    93LEAFS Registered User

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    You have to evaluate by each prospect and can't be dogmatic in approach. It can lead to foolish mistakes. For example, I don't think we should draft a goalie in the 2nd due to the state of our prospect pool, but if someone said we could get Spencer Knight for that pick right now I would do it.

    The only position you really need to address high in the draft is franchise centers or even top 6 centers. They disproportionally come from the top 10 picks of the draft. Wingers can be found everywhere, but a lot of the elite ones are found in the 1st round. Elite defenseman are pretty much found all over the place, but predominately in the first 3 rounds. Using an arbitrary selection of top defenders, centers, and wingers (such as NHL.com's top 20 list or end of season all-star votes), you can see where elite versions of players tend to be found.
     
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  23. SeaOfBlue

    SeaOfBlue No Leaf Left Behind

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    Yeah I'll definitely cross-reference. I may even have some under-the-radar guys you may want to take a look at down the line. I find that, especially outside of the CHL, there are a lot of quality players that go un-noticed unless they do play in the Hlinka or U18/U20 international tournies. I'm trying to use statistical comparisons to evaluate guys... It obviously will not be perfect, since I won't be able to exactly evaluate them based on defensive ability all that easily, but I am looking into ways I can do that with limited data.

    I'll also let you know of the guys that are on your list but not in mine (if I decide not to add them anyways). Maybe you have some insights that I do not have.
     
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  24. 93LEAFS

    93LEAFS Registered User

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    I doubt I have insights on those guys. I just added whoever I could find. Hoping I get at least 80% to 90% of the guys drafted this year. So, I don't have to add in bulk post-draft. I just like it for a quick reference for information. From podcast interviews, multiple stat sites, write-ups, rankings and were they are projected in mock drafts. For bigger names, it will be easy to post guys who just got drafted, and get some quick info on them.
     
  25. SeaOfBlue

    SeaOfBlue No Leaf Left Behind

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    Yeah true. Well it's definitely a good start. There are some guys I do not have on my list, but I do not think I am going to add them. I can see why you added them at some point or another though.
     
  26. 93LEAFS

    93LEAFS Registered User

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    A bunch were added because they were on WJC team or they were added because I had them previously up and they went undrafted.
     
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  27. hockeynorth

    hockeynorth Registered User

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    Serious hunch (let’s call it a hunch but it’s more then that...) that we’ll be talking MacKay somewhere in this draft if possible.
     
  28. SeaOfBlue

    SeaOfBlue No Leaf Left Behind

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    Probably. Either our 3rd or one of our 4ths. Preferably one of our 4ths.
     
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