The Never-Too-Early 2019 NHL Entry Draft - Were not picking at 31

[SeaOfBlue]

Honka is one guy I wouldn't mind the Leafs take a flyer on with their 1st round pick. Offensively, he is one of the best defenceman in the draft (one of the few with top pairing offensive potential).

If the Leafs could work on his defensive game to make it passable, which should be possible due to his above average skating and hockey IQ. He could become a very good late round pick.

tl:dr one of the best offensive defenders in the draft, and one of the highest raw talents in the draft. Needs some serious defensive training however.

He would be an awful 1st round pick. I do not think you should select anyone with more defensive liabilities than Liljegren in the first round (you should have a high standard for 1st round defensemen), even if you have top 5 offensive skills from the back end (see Merkley). Honka's offensive game may be 1st round quality, but not exceptional 1st round quality, and his deficiencies bring him down a lot.

 

[hockeynorth]

Grewe, Hoglander, Dorofyev, Brink, Caufield are all guys I'd love for us to draft.

 

[43Kadri43]

He would be an awful 1st round pick. I do not think you should select anyone with more defensive liabilities than Liljegren in the first round (you should have a high standard for 1st round defensemen), even if you have top 5 offensive skills from the back end (see Merkley). Honka's offensive game may be 1st round quality, but not exceptional 1st round quality, and his deficiencies bring him down a lot.

This will not age well.

 

[hockeynorth]

I wouldn't take Honka with our first, but more because I think there's going to be better options for us, I'd take him with our 2nd though.

 

[93LEAFS]

His skating is definitely one of his best skills. Sure he's not using it there but, we and I'm sure that team knew it was in his bag.

The thing about him is his microstats are always looking great. He's an exit machine, shot attempts are top-notch, he creates a **** ton of shot assits. He's the modern-day "I don't play defense because the puck is never in my end" Quinn Hughes-type. Sure his potential is nowhere near as high, but we're talking about an 18 year old defenseman that is dominating a men's league. Defense imo is a lot easier to teach than the skills he possesses.

As for his brother, Dallas has never given him a fair shake. He's exactly the type of defenseman I'd love to pick up for our 3rd pairing with definite growth potential.

The issue with micro stats is, that they have been tracked so shortly, anyone looking at them is making serious assumptions about the transferability and the likelihood of them leading to NHL stats. There is some belief around the industry, that Strome was partially taken over Marner due to people questioning Marner's micro-stats for zone-entries, overlooking what he did when he had the zone. Also, on big-ice teams tend to give up the zone way easier than they do in the NHL.

A purely analytical ranking of the top-100 prospects of the draft, done by Manny (guy who made Corsica).

http://fenwicka.com/shiny/draft_rankings/

I'm trying to find more on his formula, seems great though.

As for this, I'm not sure this guy has proven anything outside the ability to create a good site for tracking information. Looking at his actual analysis and conclusions he arrives at in the creation of some of his catch-all statistics, I'm not sure he provides quality insights gained from the information tracked. There is a big gap between accumulating data that is useful, and knowing how to create something of value with it. Especially in the creation of catch-all stats.

 

[Prodigy MayD]

He would be an awful 1st round pick. I do not think you should select anyone with more defensive liabilities than Liljegren in the first round (you should have a high standard for 1st round defensemen), even if you have top 5 offensive skills from the back end (see Merkley). Honka's offensive game may be 1st round quality, but not exceptional 1st round quality, and his deficiencies bring him down a lot.

Honka may have the best offensive skill set in the draft, aside from Hughes.

 

[Morgs]

The issue with micro stats is, that they have been tracked so shortly, anyone looking at them is making serious assumptions about the transferability and the likelihood of them leading to NHL stats. There is some belief around the industry, that Strome was partially taken over Marner due to people questioning Marner's micro-stats for zone-entries, overlooking what he did when he had the zone. Also, on big-ice teams tend to give up the zone way easier than they do in the NHL.


As for this, I'm not sure this guy has proven anything outside the ability to create a good site for tracking information. Looking at his actual analysis and conclusions he arrives at in the creation of some of his catch-all statistics, I'm not sure he provides quality insights gained from the information tracked. There is a big gap between accumulating data that is useful, and knowing how to create something of value with it. Especially in the creation of catch-all stats.

They are making serious assumptions, but I'd rather see a prospect that has shown the ability to, compared to one that has not.

Also, I like Manny's work. He's uses statistics from past players to work into his rankings to get close comps to prospects. It's a different analytical approach that doesn't use eye test bias that I want to see grow.

 

[93LEAFS]

They are making serious assumptions, but I'd rather see a prospect that has shown the ability to, compared to one that has not.

Also, I like Manny's work. He's uses statistics from past players to work into his rankings to get close comps to prospects. It's a different analytical approach that doesn't use eye test bias that I want to see grow.

I understand how he comes to conclusions. I just haven't seen him really produce anything insightful. I thought his GAR was a mess compared to hockey-graphs.

I understand incorporating statistics into an analysis of draft eligible prospects. But, this will never be baseball. They need to be merged and weighted with the eye-test.

I wouldn't draft Honka before the 2nd. His game is an absolute mess in his own end. I'm also questionable how zone-entries not only carry over, but especially in regards to big-ice, where teams are much more willing to concede the zone. It's why you almost never see dump and chase on big ice. Whereas its much easier to deny the zone and skate into trouble on small ice.

 

[Prodigy MayD]

I understand how he comes to conclusions. I just haven't seen him really produce anything insightful. I thought his GAR was a mess compared to hockey-graphs.

I understand incorporating statistics into an analysis of draft eligible prospects. But, this will never be baseball. They need to be merged and weighted with the eye-test.

I wouldn't draft Honka before the 2nd. His game is an absolute mess in his own end. I'm also questionable how zone-entries not only carry over, but especially in regards to big-ice, where teams are much more willing to concede the zone. It's why you almost never see dump and chase on big ice. Whereas its much easier to deny the zone and skate into trouble on small ice.

Thing is when you are drafting at the tail end of the first round, you either pick a Boom or Bust prospect or try and go safe and lose potential.

Sandin is example of a fairly safe pick, that can grow but realistically is top 4.
I guy like Pastrnak is example of Boom or Bust.

Honka is a Boom or Bust.

I also believe the Leafs have one of the best development systems and I would take my chance on him.

 

[Menzinger]

He would be an awful 1st round pick. I do not think you should select anyone with more defensive liabilities than Liljegren in the first round (you should have a high standard for 1st round defensemen), even if you have top 5 offensive skills from the back end (see Merkley). Honka's offensive game may be 1st round quality, but not exceptional 1st round quality, and his deficiencies bring him down a lot.

It’s easier to round out a guy’s defensive game than it is to get them to improve offensively though.

You’ve got comfortably four years of close organizational development for him from the moment he’s drafted. Given that the Leafs will be picking late, I’m fine with a gamble

 

[93LEAFS]

It’s easier to round out a guy’s defensive game than it is to get them to improve offensively though.

You’ve got comfortably four years of close organizational development for him from the moment he’s drafted. Given that the Leafs will be picking late, I’m fine with a gamble

I don't think his offense is special enough that its worth the headache of fixing the nightmare he is in his own end. Its not like his production at any level is so impressive that you should overlook it. Plus, I heard that same stuff with DeAngelo and Merkley. Although, they had other serious issues which compounded things.

 

[Prodigy MayD]

I don't think his offense is special enough that its worth the headache of fixing the nightmare he is in his own end. Its not like his production at any level is so impressive that you should overlook it. Plus, I heard that same stuff with DeAngelo and Merkley. Although, they had other serious issues which compounded things.

If you don't think his offensive is special enough it is probably because you look at his raw point totals.
If you watch the games you will see that he has a dynamic offensive ability paired with exceptional skating, vision, passing abilities.

 

[93LEAFS]

If you don't think his offensive is special enough it is probably because you look at his raw point totals.
If you watch the games you will see that he has a dynamic offensive ability paired with exceptional skating, vision, passing abilities.

I've watched him. His game is very flawed and high-risk. But, if the argument for him is analytics based like some are preaching here, I don't think the micro-stats are a starter if his production isn't high-end for his age.

He's not 2nd in this draft in offensive ability. He's behind Kakko pretty easily. I'd probably have more faith in Byram's offense carrying over.

 

[Prodigy MayD]

I've watched him. His game is very flawed and high-risk. But, if the argument for him is analytics based like some are preaching here, I don't think the micro-stats are a starter if his production isn't high-end for his age.

He's not 2nd in this draft in offensive ability. He's behind Kakko pretty easily. I'd probably have more faith in Byram's offense carrying over.

Has nothing to do with micro-stats [even though they are very good on him].

Honka just has some extremely hind end skills which make him an enticing prospect.
I have a feeling the Leafs could make his defensive game okay, and that would be enough for him to be an impact player at the NHL level.

 

[93LEAFS]

Has nothing to do with micro-stats [even though they are very good on him].

Honka just has some extremely hind end skills which make him an enticing prospect.
I have a feeling the Leafs could make his defensive game okay, and that would be enough for him to be an impact player at the NHL level.

You have more faith in the Leafs development staff as miracle workers than I do. And, the discussion you responded to was originally about his micro-stats and the validity of them as a transferable skill.

If we are going to go boom/bust, I'd prefer gambling on someone like Brink. I don't have much faith in Honka's ability to be turned into much more than a PP specialist, which would be a hard job to take from Rielly who is likely a fixture on our top unit for the next decade.

Generally in the mid to late 20's you get a guy you had in the late teens. I wouldn't be comfortable giving him a grade that high.

 

[Nithoniniel]

If you don't think his offensive is special enough it is probably because you look at his raw point totals.

You're aware that you are directing that towards a poster that probably scouts junior players more than the rest of us combined, right?

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Well it's totally irrelevant now... We traded it away

Oh well. Not the end of the world.

 

[justafan22]

I have a feeling this won't be the only 2019 pick Dubas trades.

Look for the 3rd both 4ths this year, 2020 2nd.

 

[hockeynorth]

Well it's totally irrelevant now... We traded it away

Oh well. Not the end of the world.

We're getting another, we haven't been pouring scouts onto Hoglander for nothing.

 

[Kiwi]

We're getting another, we haven't been pouring scouts onto Hoglander for nothing.

Meh, it's a late first anyway
I'm willing to give it up to make a push while Matthews and Marner are still cheap

 

[hockeynorth]

Meh, it's a late first anyway
I'm willing to give it up to make a push while Matthews and Marner are still cheap

me too but I still think we'll get another somehow

 

[Kiwi]

me too but I still think we'll get another somehow

We'd probably need to move someone off the roster to do that, I'm not sure I'm to keen on that at this point

 

[hockeynorth]

We'd probably need to move someone off the roster to do that, I'm not sure I'm to keen on that at this point

Brown might get dealt, say we get a 2nd and a 4th for him, then we flip said 2nd and maybe Timashov or someone like that and get a first again

 

[LeafSteel]

I think Gardiner gets dealt.....

 

[Kiwi]

Brown might get dealt, say we get a 2nd and a 4th for him, then we flip said 2nd and maybe Timashov or someone like that and get a first again

I can't see us touching the roster players, getting Muzzin for futures suggests were adding to the existing core and going for it