The Luongo Thread: Just The Beginning (mod warning in post #445)

[Commander Clueless]

My opinion...Nonis' fear is always what if this happens several years down the road? The problem is that while you need to have some broad based strokes a GM really ought not to be concentrating much beyond the next year or two. He gets thinking too far down the line and he gets paralyzed on what he needs to do in the here and now. Now I can understand his thinking but you also have to understand that it isn't everyday a playoff team who has questions at a position gets offered what amounts to be a guaranteed multi-year solution for that position for peanuts. He may like Reimer but there are question marks to be sure. He could have removed the question marks from that position for his entire tenure as GM and he chose not to. It's a big decision to say the least. if Reimer falls flat on his face and can't sustain decent play Nonis is going to be scrambling in the off season and he has pissed away a potential good playoff seeding. In vancouver we witnessed him cross his fingers in a similar manner with the forward ranks. It got him fired.

I agree with all of this.
Nonis acts like a GM of a small market franchise.
I can see why Tallon and Yzerman would be scared of taking on this type of financial commitment. These are real dollars for a cash strapped team. For the Leafs, the richest team in the NHL, these are Finger, Komi type issues that only come up in 4 years. The owners are raking in money and recoup Luongo's cost by going one extra playoff round.
I don't see Nonis as ever getting a team over the hump until he moves beyond this cautious attitude.

Well you guys would know him better.

Nonis preaches patience. Maybe too much patience.

The part about it that makes the most sense to me is that he said going in they wanted goaltending "support". Now obviously this is up for interpretation but to me that means they want a vet backup or at most a tandem. Luongo doesn't really fit with that criteria.

To be honest it wouldn't surprise me at all to see these talks pick up again in the summer. In fact, I expect it to be TSN's main topic of discussion yet again. I don't know if anything will happen then either but if it does it could end up being best timing wise for both teams. Vancouver gets their goalie insurance while the cap is still high and moves him only when they need to, while Toronto gets some playoff experience and gets to see what Reimer can do for them in the post season in a year where expectations are low without stealing Reimer's "thunder" quite so much. The timing would make a heck of a lot more sense in my mind although I can't say for sure or not if Nonis would do it then either. A lot of that depends on Reimer this post season.

To me this post season is a time of evaluation for the Leafs although I could be pleasantly surprised. I think they need a lot of work on their defense especially. The defense is the only position you can say the Leafs have good prospect depth at, but in the here and now its...well its got holes.

 

[Eddy Punch Clock]

@darenmillard
Final tie game in NHL history was played on April 4th, 2004. Carolina Kevin Weeks vs Florida Roberto Luongo

Goalie of the future vs. goalie of the past.

 

[Jerkini]

My opinion...Nonis' fear is always what if this happens several years down the road? The problem is that while you need to have some broad based strokes a GM really ought not to be concentrating much beyond the next year or two. He gets thinking too far down the line and he gets paralyzed on what he needs to do in the here and now.

Which as a Leafs fan is absolutely refreshing. Too often we've had a guy looking out for #1 instead of the team and the Leafs paid the ultimate price with years of pitiful teams and no playoffs.

And frankly, the here and now? We have two young goalies who are playing every bit as good as Vancouver's goaltenders, behind what most people and their grandma would say is a vastly inferior team. Seems pretty fruitless to trade a plethora of assets for someone who isn't really needed, not even taking into account his albatross of a contract.

 

[parabola]

Luongo's twitter has suddenly become much more serious

https://twitter.com/strombone1/status/319892946394701824

Aand back to being strombone1

Birthdays DON'T suck!!!

https://twitter.com/strombone1/status/319898826037157888

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Which as a Leafs fan is absolutely refreshing. Too often we've had a guy looking out for #1 instead of the team and the Leafs paid the ultimate price with years of pitiful teams and no playoffs.

And frankly, the here and now? We have two young goalies who are playing every bit as good as Vancouver's goaltenders, behind what most people and their grandma would say is a vastly inferior team. Seems pretty fruitless to trade a plethora of assets for someone who isn't really needed, not even taking into account his albatross of a contract.

Small sample size. I love your optimism though. Cheers! And enjoy the playoffs. You've earned it.

 

[I in the Eye]

Has anyone brought up the possibility that Nonis thought that Gillis would call back one more time (assuming what Dreger is saying is true) without having Scrivens included? Nonis wanted a veteran "mentor" goalie, that is known (at least that's what Nonis said)... Nonis was interested in Luongo at the right price (at least that's what Nonis said at times of this adventure)... What the **** is wrong with that alleged price? It's super cheap... It's a favour to Lu for being an excellent soldier here... It's the equivalent (with good drafting) to probably two 7B or C prospects?... and what is Scrivens, a 6.5A or 7-something prospect? More than affordable... Did Nonis really want to go into the playoffs (and beyond) with what he has? If he did, why spend a portion of the last coming days on the phone with Calgary and Vancouver?

Nonis went to the well one time too many, to really give Gillis the gears, and ended up with a handful of dirt, IMO... He either was playing a game for several months, for whatever reason (and never wanted Luongo), or he ****ed up getting him (because Luongo was right there, for cheap)... Nonis would have benefited from Gillis doing a favour to Lu, putting his ego aside and handing the gift to Nonis to, indirectly, look real good, and himself, not so good...

This is a story that I think should be preached to the media... I think it's probably at least just as correct as the media spewing their current ******** and agendas that Luongo is untradeable... just because Nonis didn't pay a cheap price... Gillis was perhaps willing to jump on less than what he felt he could get with more time/dragging this out longer, so that Luongo could be a starter in the playoffs, and get on with his life, instead of being embarrassed (and/or underutilized given his skillset in this role, understatement) as a backup here... This no longer applies in the offseason...

I've said before the season started that I expect the equivalent of Petrovic + Shore + 1st in a Luongo trade... Before this season, I expected that to be two 7B or 7C prospects, plus a 1st (I expected the 1st to be in the 10 to 20 range)... Perhaps with a bit of salary retained, and with a new mix of teams in the summer (that the "Great Roster Shuffle" promises to bring thanks to the lower cap) I don't think this will be too far off, IMHO... Nonis not paying a pittence doesn't change my opinion... Nonis ****ed up trying to hit a home run and "out-GMing" Gillis for freudian reasons, IMO... I think it's too premature to call it a reflection of Luongo's true value... After the draft, after free agency (if need be), and after Gillis starts retaining salary or acquiring a contract to buy out as part of the price willing to accept, then I get worried...

 

[tantalum]

To me this post season is a time of evaluation for the Leafs although I could be pleasantly surprised. I think they need a lot of work on their defense especially. The defense is the only position you can say the Leafs have good prospect depth at, but in the here and now its...well its got holes.

Certainly they have holes. Every new playoff team does. Heck EVERY team has holes. And so I agree it is a time of some evaluation. As I mentioned earlier it then makes sense not to bring in high priced (asset wise) rentals. However, when you have holes and question marks and can solve one of those issues and remove it from your mind for several years with what amounts to nothing it's either a bold move/evaluation OR it's a lack of focus on what is important to the team now and thinking too far down the road.

Yes the leafs have holes up front. Yes they have holes on the blueline. I personally think he has holes in goal that will become evident in round 1 to everybody (I know I could be wrong). So at which point you have to ask yourself the question..."what did nonis do this year because those were the same holes that existed before?" Did he give his team a chance to do anything in the playoffs? Did he help them along?

And let's face it, whether he accepted a deal for Luongo or not they were having discussions right up to the deadline on some level. He knows he has some big question marks in goal and on some level wanted to address it. Whether it be Kiprusoff or Luongo. And because of that he really doesn't have an issue with the contract or with bringing in an established #1. His problem then was asset cost. To me that doesn't make sense and I wonder if his thinking out 3 or 4 years that those picks might be players tripped him up; not able to realize he has time to make those picks up. Now if he was just yanking Gillis' chain up until the deadline then you have to ask yourself "If he wasn't serious at any level why wasn't he putting his efforts into doing something else on deadline day?"

 

[opendoor]

Which as a Leafs fan is absolutely refreshing. Too often we've had a guy looking out for #1 instead of the team and the Leafs paid the ultimate price with years of pitiful teams and no playoffs.

And frankly, the here and now? We have two young goalies who are playing every bit as good as Vancouver's goaltenders, behind what most people and their grandma would say is a vastly inferior team. Seems pretty fruitless to trade a plethora of assets for someone who isn't really needed, not even taking into account his albatross of a contract.

And last year guys like Mike Smith and Brian Elliott were the second coming. Dan Cloutier even had a good year or two in Vancouver but you can't count on it to continue.

Not saying Reimer is junk or anything, but a couple goalies having decent save percentages over 20 and 16 game samples is pretty meaningless on its own when you're looking towards the future.

There's a reason why goalies like Lundqvist or Luongo command large contracts and that's because elite goalies can perform at a high level year after year after year. If a team continually goes with inconsistent goalies they run the risk of having their entire season blown due to bad goaltending (see Tampa as a good example).

 

[Jerkini]

LOL! Not even close. I love your optimism though. Cheers! And enjoy the playoffs. You've earned it.

Seems pretty close to me, actually. But you know best i'm sure.

 

[tantalum]

Which as a Leafs fan is absolutely refreshing. Too often we've had a guy looking out for #1 instead of the team and the Leafs paid the ultimate price with years of pitiful teams and no playoffs.

And frankly, the here and now? We have two young goalies who are playing every bit as good as Vancouver's goaltenders, behind what most people and their grandma would say is a vastly inferior team. Seems pretty fruitless to trade a plethora of assets for someone who isn't really needed, not even taking into account his albatross of a contract.

There is clearly a balance. But if a GM is at all concerned about what may happen if Luongo retires 5 years from now they are truly one stupid GM. It's why I do believe that the contract structure Luongo has isn't much of a concern for teams. The yearly pay may be a concern to some but that is different than the length and cap hit.

I don't think there is a GM that cares one bit about cap penalties that far down the road and if they do then again they are not that bright. It'll be a minor hiccup in a cap that will be sitting at $90 mil or more.

 

[Commander Clueless]

LOL! Not even close. I love your optimism though. Cheers! And enjoy the playoffs. You've earned it.

Well not quite as good, but its hard to get upset with Reimer's 13-4-4 record with a 2.52 GAA and a .920 sv%. Hopefully he can keep up the good work.

Scribbles is doing pretty well too with a .918 sv% but Schneider is definitely the best of the bunch this year and while Luongo's stats aren't quite as good he's definitely a high end goalie.

Jerkini does have a point - I don't think Nonis felt any pressure to do anything goaltending wise this deadline and he stated as much in his interview.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Seems pretty close to me, actually. But you know best i'm sure.

Yeah, I changed my post to say small sample size.
In a normal seaosn a starting goalie gets probably close to 60 starts. I admit your goalies haev exceeded what I would have expected so far this year. But I remain unconvinced. I've been wrong lots of times before but I still see question marks.

 

[tantalum]

Seems pretty close to me, actually. But you know best i'm sure.

Good thing you didn't run those numbers oh say 10 or 14 days ago.

 

[Jerkini]

And last year guys like Mike Smith and Brian Elliott were the second coming. Dan Cloutier even had a good year or two in Vancouver but you can't count on it to continue.

So why waste assets until you know what you have? And how will you know what you have unless you play them? Reimer is young. Reimer has been rock solid in this league from the very beginning, unlike Smith and Elliot. I don't think the comparison is valid.

 

[thepuckmonster]

So why waste assets until you know what you have? And how will you know what you have unless you play them? Reimer is young. Reimer has been rock solid in this league from the very beginning, unlike Smith and Elliot. I don't think the comparison is valid.

No, no he hasn't.

Even if it was injury related, still no.

 

[tantalum]

So why waste assets until you know what you have? And how will you know what you have unless you play them? Reimer is young. Reimer has been rock solid in this league from the very beginning, unlike Smith and Elliot. I don't think the comparison is valid.

You aren't wasting assets when the guy you would be bringing in will give you multiple years of good play. Yeesh. Agreed don't bring in rentals but if you have a multi-year upgrade you do it. And yes he is an upgrade. And really Nonis believed he wanted an upgrade as well or the talks wouldn't have been happening at all. Don't put much stock in his "veteran support" stuff. Does anyone expect him to say "I don't trust my goaltending so I'm working hard to replace them". That'll go over really well with the guys who remain his goaltenders after not making a move.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

So why waste assets until you know what you have? And how will you know what you have unless you play them? Reimer is young. Reimer has been rock solid in this league from the very beginning, unlike Smith and Elliot. I don't think the comparison is valid.

One good year. One very bad year. And one half of a good year. Kind of strikes me as a model of inconsistency so far, and yes I know some of last year was injury related.
The comparison with Smith is certainly not valid. On that we agree. Mike Smith almost single handedly carried his team last year and in the playoffs.

 

[Commander Clueless]

Certainly they have holes. Every new playoff team does. Heck EVERY team has holes. And so I agree it is a time of some evaluation. As I mentioned earlier it then makes sense not to bring in high priced (asset wise) rentals. However, when you have holes and question marks and can solve one of those issues and remove it from your mind for several years with what amounts to nothing it's either a bold move/evaluation OR it's a lack of focus on what is important to the team now and thinking too far down the road.

Yes the leafs have holes up front. Yes they have holes on the blueline. I personally think he has holes in goal that will become evident in round 1 to everybody (I know I could be wrong). So at which point you have to ask yourself the question..."what did nonis do this year because those were the same holes that existed before?" Did he give his team a chance to do anything in the playoffs? Did he help them along?

And let's face it, whether he accepted a deal for Luongo or not they were having discussions right up to the deadline on some level. He knows he has some big question marks in goal and on some level wanted to address it. Whether it be Kiprusoff or Luongo. And because of that he really doesn't have an issue with the contract or with bringing in an established #1. His problem then was asset cost. To me that doesn't make sense and I wonder if his thinking out 3 or 4 years that those picks might be players tripped him up; not able to realize he has time to make those picks up. Now if he was just yanking Gillis' chain up until the deadline then you have to ask yourself "If he wasn't serious at any level why wasn't he putting his efforts into doing something else on deadline day?"

Well you may be right about the goaltending hole but realistically Nonis opted for the potential solution of running with his current goalies who, while inexperienced, are playing well. Not a bad option by any means. He wants his goalies to prove themselves and if they fail epicly this post season as you think they might, Nonis can re-evalute the Luongo situation in the offseason. Might be the best timing for both teams if you think about it.

Regardless of how the playoffs go, simply making it there will be a success for the Leafs. Next year and the years to follow though, that will change. The general consensus amongst Leaf fans was that Toronto wasn't going to do much at this deadline and for good reason. Our prospect pool is fairly shallow and there is still quite a bit of building to do.

I was really hoping they would pick up a top 4 rightie defenseman at this deadline but alas, O'Byrne.

Also, if you believe reports (which I often don't) Nonis was okay with the contract but only if it meant he got Luongo for little to no value going back apparently. Not sure if that's true or not, I was just listening to TSN (and they sure do love to speculate). I don't think he was yanking Gillis' chain.

It all comes down to Nonis' belief if whether or not Reimer can be the guy. Fortunately for him hemay have some leeway one way or the other.

 

[Jerkini]

You aren't wasting assets when the guy you would be bringing in will give you 5+ years of good play.

But it is a waste to trade assets for someone you don't even need at this particular time. Especially when you're taking into consideration every aspect of the contract you're getting back. Age, high cap hit, contract length, possibility of deteriorating ability, etc..

Luongo is a great player and has been for a long time. I would love to have him, I won't lie to you. But I would have to be in the driver's seat if any trade were to happen. And I imagine Dave Nonis feels the exact same way. It's might be mean to say, but it's one of those things where you'll get what we give you, not get what you want. And if that doesn't work for you, then there's no trade to be had. I can understand Dave Nonis' approach to this trade. It's harsh, but it makes sense to the Leafs.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

But it is a waste to trade assets for someone you don't even need at this particular time. Especially when you're taking into consideration every aspect of the contract you're getting back. Age, high cap hit, contract length, possibility of deteriorating ability, etc..

Luongo is a great player and has been for a long time. I would love to have him, I won't lie to you. But I would have to be in the driver's seat if any trade were to happen. And I imagine Dave Nonis feels the exact same way. It's might be mean to say, but it's one of those things where you'll get what we give you, not get what you want. And if that doesn't work for you, then there's no trade to be had. I can understand Dave Nonis' approach to this trade. It's harsh, but it makes sense to the Leafs.

Fair enough. I don't take any issue with the Leaf's standing pat.
I do, however, think that Nonis burned his bridges here by leaking the asking price and details of the negotiations to his cousin but we'll see. That never strikes me as a smart strategy in business. That's harsh but I can't see Luongo wanting to go to Toronto now. I understand the business side of this. We'll see if Toronto ends up regretting this move.

 

[Superpest]

Why the hell are Maple Leafs fans here? You guys are already ruining the main boards, I'm trying to stay sane.

 

[jimmythescot]

Why the hell are Maple Leafs fans here? You guys are already ruining the main boards, I'm trying to stay sane.

Yesterday one of them said he wouldn't take Luongo at $2M a year. At that point I wished there was a way you could use the ignore feature for entire fanbases.

 

[thepuckmonster]

Yesterday one of them said he wouldn't take Luongo at $2M a year. At that point I wished there was a way you could use the ignore feature for entire fanbases.

Oh man I agree with this so hard.

 

[Superpest]

Yesterday one of them said he wouldn't take Luongo at $2M a year. At that point I wished there was a way you could use the ignore feature for entire fanbases.

I avoid the Trade Rumors board because of leafs fans low balling and over valuing their players.

Now the main board is intolerable.

Unfair to generalize but its a loud majority of them who are like this.