The Leafs Offense Is.... Sustainable.

[thewave]

lol Arizona. They should just relocate elsewhere

No! Canadian workers wages for the most part must be redirected to the Zona at all costs! MAGA ... Make Arizona Great Again!

 

[Trapper]

Unless I'm missing something, there is a huge flaw in making this assumption - we've only played 6 games and the opposition has been weak. Drawing any conclusions based on this seems misguided (I would indeed expect many goals against weak teams).

Not to mention that chart doesn’t show who is scoring.
We aren’t getting big contributions from the rest of the lineup popping them in.
It’s the Matthews/Tavares show in terms of goals.

 

[Mr Hockey]

Yeah for sure. I was also thinking of Babcock's comments after the last game Sparks played, sure seemed like he was throwing him under the bus and I was thinking the next back-to-back isn't for a long time, I'd sure hate to have those words ringing in my ears for all that time while waiting for my second start in about two years.

I really hope he has a big game tonight!

I am thinking they maybe testing him early to see if he is NHL ready, and if not, Dubas will be looking to make a trade and Sparks gets waived... just guessing

 

[Gary Nylund]

I am thinking they maybe testing him early to see if he is NHL ready, and if not, Dubas will be looking to make a trade and Sparks gets waived... just guessing

This seems like a definite possibility. If it was me running the team, I'd want Andersen to start a maximum of 60 games this season and if Sparks can't handle the rest, let's find that out as soon as possible and find someone who can.

 

[Eb]

What those graphs show is that the results (ie games won) are sustainable, not that the leafs offense is sustainable

 

[Gary Nylund]

What those graphs show is that the results (ie games won) are sustainable, not that the leafs offense is sustainable

I know I'm being greedy but it sucks that we're not 6-0. The main boards would be losing their minds.

 

[Aintboutdatlyfe]

The Leafs PDO is around 100 not because scoring 5 goals/game is sustainable, but because their on ice-save percentage has been unsustainably low.

 

[Mr Hockey]

This seems like a definite possibility. If it was me running the team, I'd want Andersen to start a maximum of 60 games this season and if Sparks can't handle the rest, let's find that out as soon as possible and find someone who can.

I agree with you, I was also wondering since last season if getting a goalie that can kind of challenge Andersen for the #1, would that help make Andersen a better goalie. In my eyes Andersen needs another playoff gear, thats just what i see, but what do i know lol

 

[Pi]

I know I'm being greedy but it sucks that we're not 6-0. The main boards would be losing their minds.

It honestly irks me a bit that we lost to the Sens. We had so many chances in that game and pretty much outplayed their team completely...but we probably should have lost the game against Montreal so it evens out I guess.

 

[Daisy Jane]

Poor Arizona

they are all alone

 

[pooleboy]

What those graphs show is that the results (ie games won) are sustainable, not that the leafs offense is sustainable

so your saying the leafs are going to win every 5 games and lose 1? 68-14 - good for 136 points!

 

[Mess]

Matthews has a shooting % of 50% = unsustainable .

Leafs have a PP% of 50% when annually a top PP operates at 25% efficiency.

5 of Leafs 6 games were against last years non-playoff teams. QofC will balance itself out once all 82 games results are played.

A data set sample of only 6 games to project what will happen over 82 games is not very accurate for this purpose. IMO

Leafs have scored 29 goals after 6 games so that suggests this same 6 game set will repeat itself over and over again. 29 goals / 6 games X 82 games = 396 GF on the season.

I can suggest with 99.99% probability the Leafs are not scoring 396 goals this year.. In fact if they scored even 100 less than that they would still be the highest scoring team in the NHL.

Conclusion = unsustainable offense.

Leafs are on pace for 136 points on the season. Something tells me that ain't happening either.

 

[nsleaf]

Saw a couple of charts today, courtesy of Sean Tierney on Twitter using data from Corsi.Hockey

The first chart is obviously the most telling. It compares their Teams Goals For, against the Teams Expected Goals For, to see who is underpreforming, who is overpreforming, as well who is generally good and bad.

The Leafs are essentilly preforming exactly as they should be in terms of Goals For. They aren't too high over the average line, but that's due to the fact that the team defense do give up a lot of shots, and thus reduces our xGF%.

The next chart is a standard PDO chart. Where it takes a teams SV% and SH% and ranks teams who are getting lucky or unlucky based on those two things. Despite being 5-1, the Leafs are actually deemed as an unlucky team due to their poor sv%. The Leafs SH% sits around 11.5%, which while above average, isn't anything to expect regression from (shown above).

So when you take these two things, and combine them, you actually have something that shows you that this Leafs team offense is indeed sustainable (especially with Nylander potentially rejoining the team) and they will actually improve their overall control of games as their sv% moves back towards normal standards.[/QUOT

I think you forgot the .
Yep, Leafs nearly score 400 goals and AM gets more than 100.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Matthews has a shooting % of 50% = unsustainable .

Leafs have a PP% of 50% when annually a top PP operates at 25% efficiency.

5 of Leafs 6 games were against last years non-playoff teams. QofC will balance itself out once all 82 games results are played.

A data set sample of only 6 games to project what will happen over 82 games is very accurate for this purpose. IMO

Leafs have scored 29 goals after 6 games so that suggests this same 6 game set will repeat itself over and over again. 29 goals / 6 games X 82 games = 396 GF on the season.

I can suggest with 99.99% probability the Leafs are not scoring 396 goals this year.. In fact if they scored even 100 less than that they would still be the highest scoring team in the NHL.

Conclusion = unsustainable offense.

Leafs are on pace for 136 points on the season. Something tells me that ain't happening either.

What can I say Mess. Usually when you post about stats I want to pull my hair out but this is on point. And I presume that in the part I bolded, you meant to say "is not" instead of is. Would be interesting to revisit this after 20 games but not many stats are going to be meaningful after 6 games.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Fun facts:

Leafs have the highest goals against.
They have given up 22 goals against,

The devils have given up 4 goals.

 

[Faltorvo]

Fun facts:

Leafs have the highest goals against.
They have given up 22 goals against,

The devils have given up 4 goals.

funner fact

leafs are 13th in gags
#1 in Gfgs

 

[StannisFollower]

Fun facts:

Leafs have the highest goals against.
They have given up 22 goals against,

The devils have given up 4 goals.

Without context this stat sure looks bad.

Then you remember we played 4 games more than NJ, 1-2 games more than most teams in the league and lots of them are in the 13-19 GA range.

Really not as bad as it looks. Still needs to improve for sure, though.

 

[Apotheosis]

Fun facts:

Leafs have the highest goals against.
They have given up 22 goals against,

The devils have given up 4 goals.

Context. We have played more games than pretty much everyone.

OP: Think PDO being driven by the bad SVpct of the goalies is a bigger contributor than just outright goal scoring. When that levels off, it'll come back down to "unsustainable" but it won't completely crash. Being able to run Matthews-Tavares down the middle and Nylander coming back will, every night give you favourable defensive match ups by proxy of that much elite talent. I fully believe this PP will be top of the league and factoring in how good our stars are at even strength as well, the offence won't slow down.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

I don't think the leafs have been overly good at 5v5. They should get better as the year goes on and Nylander gets back though

 

[Semantics]

lol Arizona. They should just relocate elsewhere

I never understood why they relocated from Phoenix in the first place.

 

[FalcorMulch]

You're misinterpreting the first chart. GF% is (GF + GA)/(total goals). It's a measure of both offense and defense.

What is happening is that we are overperforming our expected goals for and underperforming our expected goals against. This is balanced out (almost) in expected GF%.

5v5 stats from Corsica Hockey.

xGF/60: 2.7
GF/60: 3.5
xGA/60: 2.6
GA/60: 2.9
xGF%: 51.4%
GF%: 54.05%

 

[ninetyone]

Fun facts:

Leafs have the highest goals against.
They have given up 22 goals against,

The devils have given up 4 goals.

Devils have hardly played and haven't played the Leafs yet !

I don't think we've seen the best from so many players, including Matthews. He's just getting comfortable with his linemates, all four lines are new. They aren't yet clicking 5on5, you know that'll only improve, both offensively and defensively.

I understand they're 6-1 and the PP has been deadly and unsustainable BUT there's so much more upside to so many players.

Stats aside, I think Auston, Mitch and Tavares have much more to give. As does Kadri and #29 at some point.

Once they settle in defensively (the whole 5man unit) and adjust to the 11 new players, this team will get better. I wouldn't be shocked to see the Leafs score over 300 goals and for Matthews to score 55-60, for all of 91, 24, 16 to approach 100 pts this year. This doesn't look like a fluke or just a hot streak, it looks like a team who's getting better.

 

[Ratboy]

Fortunately The Walking Dead isn't. Lol