The Leafs Offense Is.... Sustainable.

[Cor]

Saw a couple of charts today, courtesy of Sean Tierney on Twitter using data from Corsi.Hockey

The first chart is obviously the most telling. It compares their Teams Goals For, against the Teams Expected Goals For, to see who is underpreforming, who is overpreforming, as well who is generally good and bad.

The Leafs are essentilly preforming exactly as they should be in terms of Goals For. They aren't too high over the average line, but that's due to the fact that the team defense do give up a lot of shots, and thus reduces our xGF%.

The next chart is a standard PDO chart. Where it takes a teams SV% and SH% and ranks teams who are getting lucky or unlucky based on those two things. Despite being 5-1, the Leafs are actually deemed as an unlucky team due to their poor sv%. The Leafs SH% sits around 11.5%, which while above average, isn't anything to expect regression from (shown above).

So when you take these two things, and combine them, you actually have something that shows you that this Leafs team offense is indeed sustainable (especially with Nylander potentially rejoining the team) and they will actually improve their overall control of games as their sv% moves back towards normal standards.

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[Erndog]

So you're saying we are going to win the Cup?

Nice!

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

Poor Arizona

 

[IPS]

Poor Arizona

They look pretty lonely over there on that chart

 

[Gary Nylund]

Saw a couple of charts today, courtesy of Sean Tierney on Twitter using data from Corsi.Hockey

The first chart is obviously the most telling. It compares their Teams Goals For, against the Teams Expected Goals For, to see who is underpreforming, who is overpreforming, as well who is generally good and bad.

The Leafs are essentilly preforming exactly as they should be in terms of Goals For. They aren't too high over the average line, but that's due to the fact that the team defense do give up a lot of shots, and thus reduces our xGF%.

The next chart is a standard PDO chart. Where it takes a teams SV% and SH% and ranks teams who are getting lucky or unlucky based on those two things. Despite being 5-1, the Leafs are actually deemed as an unlucky team due to their poor sv%. The Leafs SH% sits around 11.5%, which while above average, isn't anything to expect regression from (shown above).

So when you take these two things, and combine them, you actually have something that shows you that this Leafs team offense is indeed sustainable (especially with Nylander potentially rejoining the team) and they will actually improve their overall control of games as their sv% moves back towards normal standards.

Unless I'm missing something, there is a huge flaw in making this assumption - we've only played 6 games and the opposition has been weak. Drawing any conclusions based on this seems misguided (I would indeed expect many goals against weak teams).

 

[djdev]

Unless I'm missing something, there is a huge flaw in making this assumption - we've only played 6 games and the opposition has been weak. Drawing any conclusions based on this seems misguided (I would indeed expect many goals against weak teams).

while the sample size is small i agree, i disagree with the "opposition being weak" part. outside of detroit, every one of our games has been against teams with a .500% or better so far this year. regardless of if these teams fall off a cliff or not, they shouldnt be considered weak teams at the moment imo.

 

[razkaz]

The Leafs make hockey exciting. Night in, night out they have the potential of being the game of the day.



Hopefully this keeps up for a long time

 

[Gary Nylund]

while the sample size is small i agree, i disagree with the "opposition being weak" part. outside of detroit, every one of our games has been against teams with a .500% or better so far this year. regardless of if these teams fall off a cliff or not, they shouldnt be considered weak teams at the moment imo.

It's too early in the season for the bolded to be meaningful IMO. Last years records would be more indicative of team strength assuming the rosters are mostly the same. Like Ottawa for example, I don't care what their record says, I'd still consider them a weak team at the moment. It takes more than 5 games for the rankings of teams to change.

 

[djdev]

It's too early in the season for the bolded to be meaningful IMO. Last years records would be more indicative of team strength assuming the rosters are mostly the same. Like Ottawa for example, I don't care what their record says, I'd still consider them a weak team at the moment. It takes more than 5 games for the rankings of teams to change.

while i agree, the teams we have played have less "talent" hockey is alot more unpredictable than the other major sports, its why we always seem to see a expected weak team make the playoffs every year. anyways thats neither here nor there, i just wanted to point out that all i can look at is how teams are performing this season so far and go off that. mtl, ottawa, dal, chi have all beaten multiple "talented" teams this year. anyhoo..no biggie. agree to disagree

 

[Gary Nylund]

while i agree, the teams we have played have less "talent" hockey is alot more unpredictable than the other major sports, its why we always seem to see a expected weak team make the playoffs every year. anyways thats neither here nor there, i just wanted to point out that all i can look at is how teams are performing this season so far and go off that. mtl, ottawa, dal, chi have all beaten multiple "talented" teams this year. anyhoo..no biggie. agree to disagree

Meh, I followed the betting lines very closely for many years and based on my experience, it takes more than 5 games for team rankings to shift. A good team can lose 4 out of 5 games and it barely registers. Same for a poor team winning 4 out of 5 games, it's nothing more than a minor fluctuation. Maybe one of the teams we played will surprise everyone this season but taken as a whole, they're weak. Anyhow, even if we assume you're 100% correct we both agree that the sample size is small, so small that it's really meaningless.

That said, we're a scoring machine. I don't need any charts for that, I just watch and marvel at how good we are, especially our powerplay. We may not be the best by such a wide margin (I'd go so far as to say that this is highly improbable) but yes, we may well be the best.

 

[BodaciousBeefBazooka]

lol Arizona. They should just relocate elsewhere

 

[Faltorvo]

Unless I'm missing something, there is a huge flaw in making this assumption - we've only played 6 games and the opposition has been weak. Drawing any conclusions based on this seems misguided (I would indeed expect many goals against weak teams).

has it???

at the end of a 4 game road trip we roll into the cup champs barn and beat them (they playing 500 hockey atm)

CHI has won 3 of 5 so far (who cares what they did last year, the metric is how they are playing this year)

Ott/Mon both playing 500 hockey to start the year

they ONLY team we beat that is playing weak hockey this season in DET.

 

[Mr Hockey]

Same charts as last season, we get a lot and we give a lot, like the Pens.

 

[Eb]

lol Arizona. They should just relocate elsewhere

You say the same thing when the Leafs were poop?

 

[Gary Nylund]

has it???

at the end of a 4 game road trip we roll into the cup champs barn and beat them (they playing 500 hockey atm)

CHI has won 3 of 5 so far (who cares what they did last year, the metric is how they are playing this year)

Ott/Mon both playing 500 hockey to start the year

they ONLY team we beat that is playing weak hockey this season in DET.

If you think Ottawa's for real, go ahead and lay some bets. You'll get some really nice odds and if you're right, you'll make a lot of money.

OTT and WSH both have 5 points after 5 games, if you think they should be weighted equally going into their next game then god bless you my man.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Same charts as last season, we get a lot and we give a lot, like the Pens.

Yup. Leading the league in goals, tied for first in goals against. No matter how you slice it, we have to better in our own end.

On another note, I hope Sparks plays well tonight.

 

[Babcocks Marner]

Saw a couple of charts today, courtesy of Sean Tierney on Twitter using data from Corsi.Hockey

Only made about 20 posts since the migration to the "new" forums, but I have silently really enjoyed your pieces of late.
You have a great talent.
As some pointed out, maybe wee bit early, but non the less, like I said, enjoying your work.

 

[Clark4Ever]

We should once again be among the highest scoring teams in the league without question, but our offensive output over the first few games is not sustainable. The numbers for all teams in the league will start to level off soon as teams start to tighten up defensively.

 

[Faltorvo]

If you think Ottawa's for real, go ahead and lay some bets. You'll get some really nice odds and if you're right, you'll make a lot of money.

OTT and WSH both have 5 points after 5 games, if you think they should be weighted equally going into their next game then god bless you my man.

last year is last year GN

i judge the games on current merit, full stop

if the opposition is playing descent hockey at the time we face them, then, that is what we are dealing with

If we play say Caro tomorrow, do we look at it like, pfft non PO team last year or OOFFAA red hot team this year?

we just won 4 straight road games, that has it's own set of merit also. Another metric to look at, how many back up tenders have we faced?

 

[tom leafers]

now we just need matthews to maintain the 50% shooting

 

[Mr Hockey]

Yup. Leading the league in goals, tied for first in goals against. No matter how you slice it, we have to better in our own end.

On another note, I hope Sparks plays well tonight.

I was worried they were going to make him sit a long time in between starts, i was thinking he may struggle with that.

 

[Gary Nylund]

last year is least year GN

i judge the games on current merit, full stop

if the opposition is playing descent hockey at the time we face them, then, that is what we are dealing with

If we play say Caro tomorrow, do we look at it like, pfft non PO team last year or OOFFAA red hot team this year?

we just won 4 straight road games, that has it's own set of merit also. Another metric to look at, how many back up tenders have we faced?

So OTT = WSH. Good luck!

 

[Cor]

Only made about 20 posts since the migration to the "new" forums, but I have silently really enjoyed your pieces of late.
You have a great talent.
As some pointed out, maybe wee bit early, but non the less, like I said, enjoying your work.

Appreciate it.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I was worried they were going to make him sit a long time in between starts, i was thinking he may struggle with that.

Yeah for sure. I was also thinking of Babcock's comments after the last game Sparks played, sure seemed like he was throwing him under the bus and I was thinking the next back-to-back isn't for a long time, I'd sure hate to have those words ringing in my ears for all that time while waiting for my second start in about two years.

I really hope he has a big game tonight!

 

[BodaciousBeefBazooka]

You say the same thing when the Leafs were poop?

leafs are to legendary and historic, so no.