GDT: The Last All Encompassing World Juniors Thread

[Zaddy]

I'll laugh when it comes out that Zegras never would have signed with a Canadian team, and all of this hand-wringing was for naught.

I mean he was a one and done in college so there's no way he would've stayed all 4 years and not sign. However somewhere down the line it's possible that he would've wanted to go back to the east coast but you'd likely have him for 7 years or something at least.

Year vs year is hard to judge, for example there's a huge difference in Covid Sweden vs normal Sweden. Heck Canada's team had a majority of players who had hardly played. I agree Zegras' better totals should be considered in comparison, and I would also call a guy like Mittlestat a bit of an outlier, but playing as the top dog on a top team has advantages that can inflate a players value. Some teams don't tend to be as top heavy and as such we've seen lesser players in primary roles outscore players more talented who had more support. That's why McDavid had 3 goals and 9 points, he was featured less, on another team with less depth he most certainly scores more. Also I hate to bring it up but Puljujarvi also had 17 points and lead the tournament in scoring, 6 more than Matthews and Tkachuk, 11 more than Marner. He even had 3 more than Aho and 4 more than Laine his linemates. Blah Blah Blah, the point is it's a short tournament with extenuating factors and doing well here is far from a predictor of NHL success. This was in particular a weird year, lets not read too much into it. Great for Zegras but that wasn't the NHL and guys like Mittlestat have proven that.

What makes Zegras performance impressive is that he didn't have a high-scoring player on his line, or on his team. The guy led his team in scoring by 10 (ten!!!) points in a 7 game tournament. That's insane. When Pulju had 17 points you had Aho with 14 and Laine with 13 that was on the same line as him. So there's a tremendous difference there.

And I don't know why people keep bringing up Mittelstadt? Was he even that good in that tournament? He had 11 points in 7 games, good but not amazing, and less amazing still is that he only led his team in scoring by 1 point. Bellows had 10, Tkachuk 9. So again a huge difference.

Anyway, I do think it'll definitely be a bit rough of a transition to the NHL for Zegras. The physicality is something he's not used to and that he'll have to learn to handle and find a way around. So I don't expect him to go in and dominate right away, it'll take some time but with his skill (and confidence) I will be shocked if he's not a top line forward in the future.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Said some things about Zegras last night that I shouldn't say, and detract from discussion, I apologize, in the heat of the moment stuff after a tough tough loss. As much as I know there are times I shouldn't post its hard also to see a loss like last night and not vent about it a bit. Americans played very well, and I maintain that. Still think that while they are deserving victors, Canada, with even reasonable coaching and schemes should beat them.

But if donkeys had horns they'd be unicorns..

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

I mean he was a one and done in college so there's no way he would've stayed all 4 years and not sign. However somewhere down the line it's possible that he would've wanted to go back to the east coast but you'd likely have him for 7 years or something at least.



What makes Zegras performance impressive is that he didn't have a high-scoring player on his line, or on his team. The guy led his team in scoring by 10 (ten!!!) points in a 7 game tournament. That's insane. When Pulju had 17 points you had Aho with 14 and Laine with 13 that was on the same line as him. So there's a tremendous difference there.

And I don't know why people keep bringing up Mittelstadt? Was he even that good in that tournament? He had 11 points in 7 games, good but not amazing, and less amazing still is that he only led his team in scoring by 1 point. Bellows had 10, Tkachuk 9. So again a huge difference.

Anyway, I do think it'll definitely be a bit rough of a transition to the NHL for Zegras. The physicality is something he's not used to and that he'll have to learn to handle and find a way around. So I don't expect him to go in and dominate right away, it'll take some time but with his skill (and confidence) I will be shocked if he's not a top line forward in the future.

Zegras is a worthy Tournament MVP. However looking at his point total he did take advantage of weak opposition in a strange year with 12 points coming in preliminary round blow out games against Austria (4 pts); Czech (5 points); and a uncharacteristically Swedish team playing after an emotional big game loss to Russia (3 points). He had 1 point in the preliminary round loss to Russia.
His production tightened in the medal round facing Slovakia (2), Finland (1), and 2 against Canada.

Solid results but there's an inflater effect against weak opposition. Against the legitimate top teams, his numbers aren't overwhelming. And while all points count his goal against Canada was a gratuitous bounce. Again, worthy MVP but he didn't necessarily blow the doors off the elite teams in this tournament.

 

[Zaddy]

Zegras is a worthy Tournament MVP. However looking at his point total he did take advantage of weak opposition in a strange year with 12 points coming in preliminary round blow out games against Austria (4 pts); Czech (5 points); and a uncharacteristically Swedish team playing after an emotional big game loss to Russia (3 points). He had 1 point in the preliminary round loss to Russia.
His production tightened in the medal round facing Slovakia (2), Finland (1), and 2 against Canada.

Solid results but there's an inflater effect against weak opposition. Against the legitimate top teams, his numbers aren't overwhelming. And while all points count his goal against Canada was a gratuitous bounce. Again, worthy MVP but he didn't necessarily blow the doors off the elite teams in this tournament.

Huh? He had more points against Russia and Sweden than Slovakia (which is a much weaker nation) but it doesn't count since it wasn't the medal round? He really didn't light up bad teams. Yes he had 4 points against Austria but the other teams are legit. Cozens for instance had 6 points in a 16-2 blowout against a decimated Germany. Zegras produced all the way through the tournament against all sorts of teams.

And if it was so easy to put up points why didn't any other American player take advantage? Why was Zegras 10 points ahead of the 2nd guy? Anyway it's completely unrealistic to think that Zegras could've put up even more points in the medal rounds. The game tightens for everyone there. It's like saying Draisaitl should have the same PPG in the playoffs as in the regular season. It's just not realistic. Still, he found ways to produce and have an impact in those games. It's not like he went pointless in the final 3 games.

 

[LTIR]

So we all loved our boy Holloway this tournament but did he get noticed outside of HFOil? Anyone lurking the GDTs on mains during Canada games?
I am sure there were some who took shots at his lack of scoring.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Huh? He had more points against Russia and Sweden than Slovakia (which is a much weaker nation) but it doesn't count since it wasn't the medal round? He really didn't light up bad teams. Yes he had 4 points against Austria but the other teams are legit. Cozens for instance had 6 points in a 16-2 blowout against a decimated Germany. Zegras produced all the way through the tournament against all sorts of teams.

And if it was so easy to put up points why didn't any other American player take advantage? Why was Zegras 10 points ahead of the 2nd guy? Anyway it's completely unrealistic to think that Zegras could've put up even more points in the medal rounds. The game tightens for everyone there. It's like saying Draisaitl should have the same PPG in the playoffs as in the regular season. It's just not realistic. Still, he found ways to produce and have an impact in those games. It's not like he went pointless in the final 3 games.

I led by saying he's a worthy Tournament MVP. This isn't a Zegras v Cozens argument. I'm not big on stat padding in this tournament which is a factor that can distort so yes throw out the Canada Germany game stats! This was more a curiosity for me to look at how Zegras' point totals were earned in this tournament something I hadn't paid attention to. The tournament really has really five consistent strong countries, Canada; US; Russia; Sweden; and Finland so I was interested again in how his production broke out against quality of competition. He torched a broken Sweden team stood out (4 points) in preliminaries.

A lethal 40% power play helps where Zegras was a driver potting 7 points (next closest tournament player Peterka had 6. Cozens by the way had 4). So Zegras feasted at the man advantage. Interesting Turcotte had zero PP points all 8 at even strength and Boldy had 4 PP of his 7 points. Caulfield 4 PP points of his 5 total points. Kaliyev was 8 points with 3 on the PP. Zegras clearly made opposition pay on the power play and he was fairly clear of his teammates in results with only Boldy close to his PP results.

It will be interesting to see Zegras take the next step to NHL competition. He's certainly ready after a dominant U20 tournament. I curious where his upside will be with his skill set, size and game. I can see him apprenticing on the wing with veteran support to help acclimatize and moving over to centre after gaining some experience against NHL competition. The centre/wing versatility is another asset in his broad toolkit of skill and finesse.

 

[ZenOil]

Moreau is a good comparison in someways actually. Kreider’s name gets brought up a lot as well.

Little better wheels than Moreau, but he has that same relentless work ethic. McDavid has shown to play well with big wingers who can forecheck. Holloway is such a powerful skater and physical on the team as well, McDavid should be beaming thinking about him as a winger if Holloway doesn’t slot in at 3C long term.

Even internationally McDavid looked really good with Scheifeler as a winger a few years back. He tends to play his best with big, physical forechecking wingers.

I love the effort Holloway plays, he does so much right away from the puck. One area I want him to focus on with McDavid and Drai is his stick handling and puck control, if Holloway had elite hands he would have been a top 5 pick. If he can really improve on that, then Holland hit a home run with this pick. I have no doubt Holloway will be a fan favourite like Moreau was.

If he develops some hands.....deadly!!!! Definently going to follow his university games to see how he looks when he's healed up.

 

[Whyme]

What makes Zegras performance impressive is that he didn't have a high-scoring player on his line, or on his team. The guy led his team in scoring by 10 (ten!!!) points in a 7 game tournament. That's insane. When Pulju had 17 points you had Aho with 14 and Laine with 13 that was on the same line as him. So there's a tremendous difference there.

You have valid points and I agree Zegras looked very good, but isn't Zegras a bit over two years older than Pulju was at the time he scored his points?

 

[bellagiobob]

 

[nabob]

You have valid points and I agree Zegras looked very good, but isn't Zegras a bit over two years older than Pulju was at the time he scored his points?

Yes almost all of the US key players are quite a bit older than Puljuarvi was.
Puljujarvi put up the performance he did at a younger age than Byfield currently is. Not sure if that says more about Puljujarvi or Byfield though.

 

[Canovin]

Yes almost all of the US key players are quite a bit older than Puljuarvi was.
Puljujarvi put up the performance he did at a younger age than Byfield currently is. Not sure if that says more about Puljujarvi or Byfield though.

Wasn't Laine also the youngest player on that Fin team?

Oops that was Pulju. Still both players were much younger than Zegras was relative to WJC-20

Two pre-draft players vs D+2 player. Quite a bit difference

 

[nabob]

Wasn't Laine also the youngest player on that Fin team?

Oops that was Pulju. Still both players were much younger than Zegras was relative to WJC-20

Yep Puljujarvi was the youngest player in the NHL in his and Laine’s rookie season and even during his time in the AHL in his second season I believe he was the youngest player in the league.

I think people don’t realize how young and raw he was when he was drafted.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I wouldn't put too much stock on the numbers. It was a sitting target dynamic. What else did we have to watch, Netflix? pfffft

People were starved for sports, starved for hockey, not being able to have friends and family over or going out to see family and friends during holidays. Just sitting at home switching channels.

They should compare Neilsons on all programming right now.

 

[Samus44]

There is some noise that not taking Zegras could be rationalized because we needed D or complimentary players more.

I disagree strongly and want to point out that if Holland can't sign RNH the missed Zegras pick will be amplified that much more. It takes almost no foresight to see that Zegras would have been great insurance for that and I personally don't believe having a skilled forward would upset our balance even if RNH resigns with us.

Right now and every point up to now Zegras was the smart/best pick for the Oilers. True predraft, true at the draft, true in draft +1 year, true in draft +2 year. Who knows what the future may bring but right now it was very obviously a mistake to not draft him.

Is what it is. I'm not going to lose sleep about it but if the current trends continue it will be a significant mistake.

I would have drafted Zegras based on my limited knowledge but lets be honest we don't have enough information on the player to know it was a pick the Oilers should have made. I think the Oilers should have legit trepidation in drafting an American from a loaded family in NY and it's very possible the player articulated a preference not to play here. Honestly I'd be surprised if he would. Just look at what so many of these kids do, they force trades out of Canada or they jump ship at first chance. It's not about who the best player is now but who will be the best player long term for your organization and that's not going to be the same for everyone. Signability as early as a 2nd contract is an issue even if you assume he won't wait to turn pro. Even if he doesn't go full Adam Fox having a Trouba or Roslovic situation on our hands wouldn't be great either. I don't know what happened with Marino but I can't imagine the Oilers being in Western Canada helped.

Broberg is a toolsy guy that will take longer to develop and I would expect Zegras to look better early but maybe 5-6-7 years later that changes. When it comes to drafting it's not like only the RFA years have value. 7 years from now matters, a players prime that extends beyond even that matters. Core players usually need to be drafted. There's a real chance Broberg could be better but it will take 3-7 years. For example we all know now that Hedman was a better pick than Tavares despite how long it took for that to be true. I'm not saying Broberg is Hedman or Zegras is Tavares good but it's kind of a similar comparison of player type and expected development curve but of even higher pedigree. A more extreme comparison of where the toolsy guy just needed more time and had a higher ceiling would be Bennett vs Draisaitl. I'm willing to wait it out since Broberg looked to me in the play ins camp to be someone who's skills and ability will translate to the NHL.

I'm not going to pretend I'm down on Zegras or wouldn't be jazzed to have him but I think it's way too early to call it a mistake especially given his upbringing. Also who knows, it's not like Hughes his supposedly superior teammate has been lights out. Broberg is a fine prospect so why covet what you don't have? You won't always get the best player but it's not a tragedy if you still get a good one.

 

[GOilers88]

I feel like the possibility of potentially losing Klefbom permanently makes Broberg a solid pick. Obviously this wasn't something Holland was thinking about when he made the pick, but now given what has transpired I don't think it's such a bad thing to have a prospect of his calibre on defense.

Nurse/Jones/Samorukov/Broberg.

We aren't exactly chalk full of solid defenders, and I don't think you can ever have enough defensemen waiting in the wings. Especially when you have the offensive threats pretty well covered in McDrai/RNH and assuming the new additions help with scoring depth.

 

[bellagiobob]

 

[Aerchon]

I would have drafted Zegras based on my limited knowledge but lets be honest we don't have enough information on the player to know it was a pick the Oilers should have made. I think the Oilers should have legit trepidation in drafting an American from a loaded family in NY and it's very possible the player articulated a preference not to play here. Honestly I'd be surprised if he would. Just look at what so many of these kids do, they force trades out of Canada or they jump ship at first chance. It's not about who the best player is now but who will be the best player long term for your organization and that's not going to be the same for everyone. Signability as early as a 2nd contract is an issue even if you assume he won't wait to turn pro. Even if he doesn't go full Adam Fox having a Trouba or Roslovic situation on our hands wouldn't be great either. I don't know what happened with Marino but I can't imagine the Oilers being in Western Canada helped.

Broberg is a toolsy guy that will take longer to develop and I would expect Zegras to look better early but maybe 5-6-7 years later that changes. When it comes to drafting it's not like only the RFA years have value. 7 years from now matters, a players prime that extends beyond even that matters. Core players usually need to be drafted. There's a real chance Broberg could be better but it will take 3-7 years. For example we all know now that Hedman was a better pick than Tavares despite how long it took for that to be true. I'm not saying Broberg is Hedman or Zegras is Tavares good but it's kind of a similar comparison of player type and expected development curve but of even higher pedigree. A more extreme comparison of where the toolsy guy just needed more time and had a higher ceiling would be Bennett vs Draisaitl. I'm willing to wait it out since Broberg looked to me in the play ins camp to be someone who's skills and ability will translate to the NHL.

I'm not going to pretend I'm down on Zegras or wouldn't be jazzed to have him but I think it's way too early to call it a mistake especially given his upbringing. Also who knows, it's not like Hughes his supposedly superior teammate has been lights out. Broberg is a fine prospect so why covet what you don't have? You won't always get the best player but it's not a tragedy if you still get a good one.

I appreciate your thought process and we'll written response.

While you use some very good examples of US players to the point where I agree there would be concerns about Zegras wanting to play in Edmonton, but without actually knowledge of what Zegras stance is I think that's too speculative. It's kinda terrible to say but... As bad as I imagine Edmonton would be to such an American prospect... Winnipeg is worse.

I also imagine getting a chance to play with McDavid, Draisaitl, RNH, Yamamoto, Puljujarvi... very high skill players does introduce the possibility of massive points/contracts or even a Stanley Cup... as iffy as that may be I do think that holds some weight.

So good point but with the info we have I don't think we can assume that would be a factor in not drafting Zegras.

Broberg... I don't believe it LIKELY Broberg will ever cover the spread between taking him over Zegras. Even with Klefboms likely career ending injury I still don't think picking a LD was better than picking a forward.

I know you are not comparing Broberg to Hedman or Zegras to Tavares but I see Zegras much closer to Tavares than Broberg is to Hedman. Zegras has an elite star profile... Broberg doesn't.

I agree Broberg is a long term project. I agree he can be an impact player to us. I project him in the area of Klefbom/Nurse which is obviously still a valuable prospect. I just see Zegras being a clear cut great 8OA pick, elite prospect... that also fits nicely with filling a greater need in a quicker timeline. Utilizing prime McDrai time.

Im an Oiler fan. Which means I follow the draft closer than is healthy. I believe in talent tiers. Zegras dropped to us giving us access to a player a tier higher than we should have. Broberg jumped up a tier and still looks like a bit of a reach at that 8OA spot... imo. I don't want to get bogged down by this, Broberg is doing well... just not Zegras level well. It's speculation but I think most would say Zegras is likely a top line prospect where I don't believe unbias people can say Broberg is likely a top pairing guy. That's a significant gap.

Making a Stanley Cup winning team in a cap world is extremely difficult. Doing so while McDavid is here is paramount. As much as i bow to my hockey knowledge being inferior to Holland's by the same token I would love to know what exactly the thought process was to pick a toolsy long term left shooting defenseman over a elite forward when our forward depth was so lacking.

 

[Samus44]

I appreciate your thought process and we'll written response.

While you use some very good examples of US players to the point where I agree there would be concerns about Zegras wanting to play in Edmonton, but without actually knowledge of what Zegras stance is I think that's too speculative. It's kinda terrible to say but... As bad as I imagine Edmonton would be to such an American prospect... Winnipeg is worse.

I also imagine getting a chance to play with McDavid, Draisaitl, RNH, Yamamoto, Puljujarvi... very high skill players does introduce the possibility of massive points/contracts or even a Stanley Cup... as iffy as that may be I do think that holds some weight.

So good point but with the info we have I don't think we can assume that would be a factor in not drafting Zegras.

Broberg... I don't believe it LIKELY Broberg will ever cover the spread between taking him over Zegras. Even with Klefboms likely career ending injury I still don't think picking a LD was better than picking a forward.

I know you are not comparing Broberg to Hedman or Zegras to Tavares but I see Zegras much closer to Tavares than Broberg is to Hedman. Zegras has an elite star profile... Broberg doesn't.

I agree Broberg is a long term project. I agree he can be an impact player to us. I project him in the area of Klefbom/Nurse which is obviously still a valuable prospect. I just see Zegras being a clear cut great 8OA pick, elite prospect... that also fits nicely with filling a greater need in a quicker timeline. Utilizing prime McDrai time.

Im an Oiler fan. Which means I follow the draft closer than is healthy. I believe in talent tiers. Zegras dropped to us giving us access to a player a tier higher than we should have. Broberg jumped up a tier and still looks like a bit of a reach at that 8OA spot... imo. I don't want to get bogged down by this, Broberg is doing well... just not Zegras level well. It's speculation but I think most would say Zegras is likely a top line prospect where I don't believe unbias people can say Broberg is likely a top pairing guy. That's a significant gap.

Making a Stanley Cup winning team in a cap world is extremely difficult. Doing so while McDavid is here is paramount. As much as i bow to my hockey knowledge being inferior to Holland's by the same token I would love to know what exactly the thought process was to pick a toolsy long term left shooting defenseman over a elite forward when our forward depth was so lacking.

I think you need to consider that Zegras has yet to play professional hockey. The SHL is much better than the NCAA or WJC. Broberg was hurt so we couldn't get a fair comparision but don't forget he's dominated against his own age group as well in other tournaments like the U18's. I think you might be taking too much out of the WJC's especially given the circumstances around this year.

 

[Aerchon]

I think you need to consider that Zegras has yet to play professional hockey. The SHL is much better than the NCAA or WJC. Broberg was hurt so we couldn't get a fair comparision but don't forget he's dominated against his own age group as well in other tournaments like the U18's. I think you might be taking too much out of the WJC's especially given the circumstances around this year.

I was extremely disappointed I didn't get to watch a healthy Broberg. I would love nothing more than to have watched Broberg play in the WJC and dominate his peers as an elite prospect should in his situation. We got a taste in his first game and then...

Wjc is only a snapshot. I don't take it as gospel. But it's my only time to watch him live so it my best way to evaluate.

Same thing with Zegras. Wjc is only worth so much. But I do think his overall body of work suggests a player that will be .75 ppg or better most his career.

 

[bellagiobob]