The Jarmo Thread

[Cyclones Rock]

I think the pass first was known about him. Note, he did have 20g and then 26g (16g against men in the SHL, and only 5 A in the SHL) his two years before being drafted, so it's not like he was a slouch. That's why I wonder if the criticism should really be draft vs. develop.

In the past the forum seems to have dumped on him more for being rushed and gifted a spot in the lineup. Do you then blame the GM for the draft, the GM for promoting him (assuming with coach input), or the coach who plays him up the lineup?

I place the blame squarely on the GM.

The idea that John Tortorella would play this soft and passionless player 18 minutes per game this season or at any time in the past on his own volition is comical.

 

[cslebn]

I place the blame squarely on the GM.

The idea that John Tortorella would play this soft and passionless player 18 minutes per game this season or at any time in the past on his own volition is comical.

This is the coach who played the Sedins over 20min/gp along with Stepan get 20+ and Richards and Gaborik at 18+. I think the Torts doesn't play softer forwards might be a myth.

 

[majormajor]

This is the coach who played the Sedins over 20min/gp along with Stepan get 20+ and Richards and Gaborik at 18+. I think the Torts doesn't play softer forwards might be a myth.

We have so many myths about Torts, it's tiring. I wouldn't call Sedins or Stepan soft but I get your point.

 

[EspenK]

This is the coach who played the Sedins over 20min/gp along with Stepan get 20+ and Richards and Gaborik at 18+. I think the Torts doesn't play softer forwards might be a myth.

I think he doesn't play young guys, especially the ones who aren't physical and are prone to mistakes.

I think his leash is too short. One mistake shouldn't get you stapled to the bench.

And your examples are poor. Sedins are HOFers, Stepan was team captain and Gaborik was an established scorer when he played for Torts. At least compare apples to apples.

 

[cslebn]

I think he doesn't play young guys, especially the ones who aren't physical and are prone to mistakes.

I think his leash is too short. One mistake shouldn't get you stapled to the bench.

And your examples are poor. Sedins are HOFers, Stepan was team captain and Gaborik was an established scorer when he played for Torts. At least compare apples to apples.

My response was to the phrase soft. Yes those guys are highly skilled but that changes nothing from the idea they aren't heavy like Dubi, Callahan, Anderson, etc.

 

[stonec]

Having been slightly positive about Jarmo & JD, I now find myself tending negative. This team is in shambles with little hope for improvement in the near future other than Jackets' fans predicting great careers for Tex, Bemstrom, et al. So far the promising goalie roster is not so hot. Other than PLD I see no other young guy getting better or even staying the same.

The team has an average age of 25.8, which is second youngest after Coloardo. Even with no immediate upcoming prospects, the current core should keep improving at least for a couple of more years.

I believe the go all in at the TDL was an organizational decision, which in hindsight, was completely effin stupid imo. The one playoff series win will go down in Jackets' lore next to the 16 game winning streak which cost a higher draft position and contrary to all the people who though it would build momentum for the following season led to an 0-8 beginning.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing, isn't it? Back when the team was clean sweeping Tampa it surely didn't seem like a bad idea or at least I can't remember reading much criticism about Jarmo's moves back then.

Robin Lehner should have been signed. Jarmo will get another shot if Chicago doesn't re-up him.

I agree here, the goaltender situation is the only thing that might call for immediate action.

 

[majormajor]

I think he doesn't play young guys, especially the ones who aren't physical and are prone to mistakes.

I think his leash is too short. One mistake shouldn't get you stapled to the bench.

And your examples are poor. Sedins are HOFers, Stepan was team captain and Gaborik was an established scorer when he played for Torts. At least compare apples to apples.

It looks to me like incomplete research vs zero research, and you're complaining about the incompleteness part. We have a few posters here that prefer to just blithely assert narratives, the onus should be on that side to actually come up with something.

 

[Cowumbus]

Are you setting your expectations for the draft based on what everyone else in the NHL has pulled off in that time, or is it based off of "He's supposed to be a wizard, therefore MOAR SHINIES"? Because 2013 and 2014 barely qualify as below average, and 2015 is a tour-de-****ing-force. People have wild fantasies about drafting half your defense in a single year.

The "let's see what we have" gamble this offseason is looking pretty bad now, to be sure, but that doesn't mean we need to start trash-retconning everything in defiance of the historical record.

No my point is that for being considered a “draft wizard” Jarmo has been brutally average.

 

[EspenK]

It looks to me like incomplete research vs zero research, and you're complaining about the incompleteness part. We have a few posters here that prefer to just blithely assert narratives, the onus should be on that side to actually come up with something.

NM.

 

[majormajor]

No my point is that for being considered a “draft wizard” Jarmo has been brutally average.

And what is the average? Viqsi's point is that you don't have a baseline you're comparing him to, it's just an assertion.

 

[majormajor]

WTF?

Not directed mainly at you Espen.

You're jumping into an argument between two posters, one making assertions with zero evidence, and the other poster using a bit of evidence, specifically how Torts used a few players in the past. And your complaint was with the bit of evidence side. I've seen this enough, it's unfair. That is all.

 

[Cowumbus]

And what is the average? Viqsi's point is that you don't have a baseline you're comparing him to, it's just an assertion.

That 67% + percent of your first round picks should be NHLers, so 5 in this case. And 1 out of every 7 2nd or 3rd round picks should be, so 2 in CBJ case. 4th round on is more random.

 

[NotWendell]

Has anyone considered we really WERE "supposed to suck this year" (by design)?

 

[Viqsi]

That 67% + percent of your first round picks should be NHLers, so 5 in this case. And 1 out of every 7 2nd or 3rd round picks should be, so 2 in CBJ case. 4th round on is more random.

How many GMs actually reach this baseline of yours, and where are they generally picking so as to reach it?

 

[cslebn]

That 67% + percent of your first round picks should be NHLers, so 5 in this case. And 1 out of every 7 2nd or 3rd round picks should be, so 2 in CBJ case. 4th round on is more random.

Using these numbers

2013
Rd1 1 nhler, 1 journeyman (3 picks)
Rd2 1 journeyman
Rd3 1 angler

2014
Rd1 Milano (whatever he is lol)
Rd2 ahler
Rd3 goalie tbd, ahler
Bad year, bad draft for all teams largely

2015
Rd1 1 nhler, 1 ahler
Rd2 2 ahlers
Rd3 bust
Rd6 and 7 both hit nhlers

2016
Rd1 pld, nuf said
Rd2 tbd (Peeke)
Rd3 tbd (abramov, likely ahl)

2017 should be tough since really those kids are developing but at the moment, Texier (2), Bemmstrom (4), Davidsson (6) are in the NHL.

I'll do a more thorough breakdown later if I have time with %chance by draft slot, so take from this what you will.

 

[cslebn]

How many GMs actually reach this baseline of yours, and where are they generally picking so as to reach it?

Seems like people think we should have gotten 2 fill time players from 2013 and one should have been better than Wennberg.
\shrug

 

[Viqsi]

Seems like people think we should have gotten 2 fill time players from 2013 and one should have been better than Wennberg.
\shrug

I dunno. I see all this dwelling on 2013 and I get tempted to write it off as the usual Wennberg hate in disguised form.

 

[Cowumbus]

How many GMs actually reach this baseline of yours, and where are they generally picking so as to reach it?

Based on the last 15 years of the draft, that is the average per round. You can look into individual teams if you would like. I looked at players who played at least 150 games and that’s how many per round reached that number.

 

[Cowumbus]

I dunno. I see all this dwelling on 2013 and I get tempted to write it off as the usual Wennberg hate in disguised form.

No, Wennberg is an NHL player. But AT LEAST one of our picks from 2013 should have been, statistically at least.

 

[Viqsi]

Based on the last 15 years of the draft, that is the average per round. You can look into individual teams if you would like. I looked at players who played at least 150 games and that’s how many per round reached that number.

I'd highly recommend checking that against individual teams before you start drawing conclusions about GMs, because that 67% in the first round doesn't always consist of the same teams every year.

 

[Cowumbus]

I'd highly recommend checking that against individual teams before you start drawing conclusions about GMs, because that 67% in the first round doesn't always consist of the same teams every year.

I wanted to but it take a while on pen and paper

If you do, please share the results

 

[Viqsi]

I wanted to but it take a while on pen and paper

If you do, please share the results

Gave it a rough approximation by picking a few GMs that came to mind, stopping short at 2017 because otherwise the 150 game threshold is impossible to reach. For historical results from many past years, it seems solid enough:
David Poile (1998-2017): 10/17 1st (58%), 12/52 2nd-3rd (23%; added one because Brendan Leipsic is six games away from 150)
Steve Yzerman (2010-2017): 6/8 1st (75%; added one as Tony DeAngelo is three games away from 150), 3/19 2nd-3rd (15%)
Ken Holland (1997-2017): 7/11 1st (77%), 16/44 2nd-3rd (36%; added one as Tyler Bertuzzi is three games away from 15o)

Restrict ourselves to the same years available for Kekalainen, though, and it starts getting a little choppy:
David Poile (2013-2017): 2/4 1st (50%); 1/10 2nd-3rd (10%)
Steve Yzerman (2013-2017): 2/4 1st (50%; added DeAngelo as above); 1/14 2nd-3rd (7%)
Ken Holland (2013-2017): 2/5 1st (40%); 2/12 2nd-3rd (17%; added Bertuzzi as above)

So that suggests you've got something that might work pretty well for GMs with really extended histories, but Kekalainen hasn't quite been around long enough for that to work well in his case.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

This is the coach who played the Sedins over 20min/gp along with Stepan get 20+ and Richards and Gaborik at 18+. I think the Torts doesn't play softer forwards might be a myth.

The Sedins are HHOFers or close to getting in. Richards and Gaborik were studs at their peak. Alexander Wennberg has nothing in common with these players.

 

[GoJackets1]

On this topic of whether or not Jarmo is the draft wizard he claims to be, I did some research. For purposes of this research, I’m defining NHL players to be either players slated to play a full season for a team this year, or have 100+ GP in the NHL since they were drafted. I’m also only going to count draft years 2013-2017, because that’s really what would create an accurate sample size as it’s too soon to judge either 2018 or 2019.
In the period of 2013-2017:
Jarmo has drafted the following players with 100+ GP in the NHL:

• Wennberg
• Dano
• Bjorkstrand
• Milano
• Werenski
• Nutivaara
• PLD

In addition, he has drafted the following players slated to play a full season with the team this year:

• Gavrikov
• Texier
• Bemstrom
• Elvis

There is also these guys playing NHL games for other teams this year, but for the purpose of this analysis I won’t count them because it’s still somewhat presumptuous that they will be NHL players:

• Abramov
• Davidsson

Players who still look to have NHL potential drafted in this timeframe:

• Peeke
• Tarasov
• Stenlud (maybe)
• Carlsson (maybe)

In a 5 year span, Jarmo has found players already in the NHL on 11/36 picks, and debatable NHL players on 6/36 picks. I’m willing to only count the 11 current NHL players for this, but that’s anywhere from 11-17 NHL players out of 36 draft picks.

How many other GM’s have a 31%-47% success rate in finding NHL players in that timeframe?

ANH: 10/28
ARI: 9/38
BOS: 8/33
BUF: 9/42
CAL: 7/33
CAR: 9/37
CHI: 7/42
COL: 5/35
DAL: 8/36
DET: 9/39
EDM: 8/38
FLA: 9/34
LAK: 8/34
MIN: 5/32
MTL: 9/32
NSH: 6/38
NJD: 9/37
NYI: 7/32
NYR: 5/32
OTT: 7/29
PHI: 8/40
PIT: 5/27
SJS: 6/35
STL: 7/34
TBL: 8/39
TOR: 9/38
VAN: 9/35
WSH: 6/27
WPG: 9/39

Based on the criteria I set up, only Anaheim has a better track record of finding NHL players through the draft in that time period than Jarmo does, in terms of % hit. The only caveat there is 2/10 of those Ducks players were taken beyond the first two rounds of the draft, whereas 4/11 of CBJ guys were taken 3rd round or later. That track record should speak for itself. I'd also be happy to go through and see how many NHL players each team has drafted from 3rd round and beyond in that timeframe. That's not even counting Vehvilainen and TFW from 2018 either. So yeah, I'm not super convinced that Jarmo isn't at the very least an extremely above average GM when it comes to drafting.

 

[Viqsi]

On this topic of whether or not Jarmo is the draft wizard he claims to be, I did some research. For purposes of this research, I’m defining NHL players to be either players slated to play a full season for a team this year, or have 100+ GP in the NHL since they were drafted. I’m also only going to count draft years 2013-2017, because that’s really what would create an accurate sample size as it’s too soon to judge either 2018 or 2019.
In the period of 2013-2017:
Jarmo has drafted the following players with 100+ GP in the NHL:

• Wennberg
• Dano
• Bjorkstrand
• Milano
• Werenski
• Nutivaara
• PLD

In addition, he has drafted the following players slated to play a full season with the team this year:

• Gavrikov
• Texier
• Bemstrom
• Elvis

There is also these guys playing NHL games for other teams this year, but for the purpose of this analysis I won’t count them because it’s still somewhat presumptuous that they will be NHL players:

• Abramov
• Davidsson

Players who still look to have NHL potential drafted in this timeframe:

• Peeke
• Tarasov
• Stenlud (maybe)
• Carlsson (maybe)

In a 5 year span, Jarmo has found players already in the NHL on 11/36 picks, and debatable NHL players on 6/36 picks. I’m willing to only count the 11 current NHL players for this, but that’s anywhere from 11-17 NHL players out of 36 draft picks.

How many other GM’s have a 31%-47% success rate in finding NHL players in that timeframe?

ANH: 10/28
ARI: 9/38
BOS: 8/33
BUF: 9/42
CAL: 7/33
CAR: 9/37
CHI: 7/42
COL: 5/35
DAL: 8/36
DET: 9/39
EDM: 8/38
FLA: 9/34
LAK: 8/34
MIN: 5/32
MTL: 9/32
NSH: 6/38
NJD: 9/37
NYI: 7/32
NYR: 5/32
OTT: 7/29
PHI: 8/40
PIT: 5/27
SJS: 6/35
STL: 7/34
TBL: 8/39
TOR: 9/38
VAN: 9/35
WSH: 6/27
WPG: 9/39

Based on the criteria I set up, only Anaheim has a better track record of finding NHL players through the draft in that time period than Jarmo does, in terms of % hit. The only caveat there is 2/10 of those Ducks players were taken beyond the first two rounds of the draft, whereas 4/11 of CBJ guys were taken 3rd round or later. That track record should speak for itself. I'd also be happy to go through and see how many NHL players each team has drafted from 3rd round and beyond in that timeframe. That's not even counting Vehvilainen and TFW from 2018 either. So yeah, I'm not super convinced that Jarmo isn't at the very least an extremely above average GM when it comes to drafting.

I would generally stick to the "11 in the NHL", since evaluating every prospect pool can add a lot of judgment call noise. But still, that looks pretty good.