The Jack Johnson effect - Maybe he is as bad as Pens fans say

third man in

Registered User
Jul 27, 2007
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Maryland
Because GMs are stupid and aren't as analytically driven as fans are. I think it's really easy to understand how it happens, because a majority of GMs trust the eye test more than analytics. It's not like JR had a senile moment and was the only guy to offer anything to Johnson.

Look at what GMs are in the NHL today, I would say there are 3x-4x as many GMs who were GMs in the 1990s than GMs who joined after the analytics boom in hockey. It's not surprising that these things happen all of the time in the NHL when you consider that JR, Murray, Holland, Lamoriello, Bowman, Poile, Wilson and Armstrong are GMs in the NHL today.

Want to know why guys like Staal, Gudbranson, Daley, Girardi (both pre and post buyout), Johnson, Scuderi, McQuaid, Polak and Phaneuf are still around/stayed around way longer than they should have? Because most GMs don't use the stats that fans use to show that these guys suck.



Oh yeah, he has done a really terrible job with winning 2 cups for the Penguins.
How about the eye test where you look for him in the playoffs and you can't f***ing find him because he's terrible and was a healthy scratch the entire series?
 

Empoleon8771

Registered User
Aug 25, 2015
80,407
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Redmond, WA
Except Daley was actually a damn good player before he ever got to the Pens. Johnson has never been a good player in the NHL, ever.

Based on his analytics, no he wasn't. He was a horrendous analytics player his entire career.

How about the eye test where you look for him in the playoffs and you can't ****ing find him because he's terrible and was a healthy scratch the entire series?

But like JR said, he knows why Johnson was scratched and it wasn't his play.
 

Misery74

Registered User
Nov 20, 2017
2,146
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At some point Pittsburgh needs to waive him, I guess when JS comes back.

Cannot go into postseason with JJ in top 6. My guess is he gets the Karl Alzner treatment very soon.

Dead cap space for Pittsburgh. Very happy about that.
 
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3074326

Registered User
Apr 9, 2009
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If Crosby runs the show and we're blaming him for JJ, he is also due credit for putting together three teams that won Cups.

Yeah the logic sucks. It doesn't make any sense. But it isn't stopping anyone else!
 

GOilers88

Fer Da
Dec 24, 2016
14,173
20,681
Because GMs are stupid and aren't as analytically driven as fans are. I think it's really easy to understand how it happens, because a majority of GMs trust the eye test more than analytics. It's not like JR had a senile moment and was the only guy to offer anything to Johnson.

Look at what GMs are in the NHL today, I would say there are 3x-4x as many GMs who were GMs in the 1990s than GMs who joined after the analytics boom in hockey. It's not surprising that these things happen all of the time in the NHL when you consider that JR, Murray, Holland, Lamoriello, Bowman, Poile, Wilson and Armstrong are GMs in the NHL today.

Want to know why guys like Staal, Gudbranson, Daley, Girardi (both pre and post buyout), Johnson, Scuderi, McQuaid, Polak and Phaneuf are still around/stayed around way longer than they should have? Because most GMs don't use the stats that fans use to show that these guys suck.



Oh yeah, he has done a really terrible job with winning 2 cups for the Penguins.

These people you speak of also have a bunch of fancy stats that prove some of the best players in the league, like Erik Karlsson, aren't actually very good hockey players.

If the NHL was suddenly overrun by people who share the same sentiments as the HF braintrust, the league would crash and burn.
 
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rielledup

Registered User
Sep 17, 2015
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Jack Johnston is one of the greatest examples that proves just how wrong some eye test people are about their evaluations of players. Brian Burke,David Poile and others thought that JJ was one of the best American d men when they chose him to play on team USA at the 2010 Olympics. That season he had by far a team worst -15 on a good defensive team, the second worst dman had a -4 and Doughty was a +20 playing the most and toughest minutes.


What annoys me so much about some of these people is just how arrogant they are and how dismissive they are about people who put a lot of value on analytics.
 

bert

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Nov 11, 2002
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There are hundreds of HFBoards users who, presumably with zero qualification and utilising publicly available information, could have walked up to Rutherford and put up a demonstration as to why Jack Johnson should not have been offered any contract.

It boggles my mind how this **** can happen.

While you arent incorrect, when the evidence is there that Sid likely pushed for this its really not all that suprising.
 

wetcoast

Registered User
Nov 20, 2018
22,247
10,126
Man, every time I see Jack Johnson's name it makes me sad. I just can't get my head around how parents could steal from their own kid. Mind boggling.

That was a bizarre story right up there with Gilbert Brule's father and that St. Louis guy that hired a hit man. (can't remember his name).

Bobby Ryan in his teens is another interesting truth is stranger than fiction story as well.
 

TomasHertlsRooster

Don’t say eye test when you mean points
May 14, 2012
33,360
25,417
Fremont, CA
These people you speak of also have a bunch of fancy stats that prove some of the best players in the league, like Erik Karlsson, aren't actually very good hockey players.

If the NHL was suddenly overrun by people who share the same sentiments as the HF braintrust, the league would crash and burn.

Advanced stats frequently rate Erik Karlsson as by far the best defenseman and a top-5 player in the NHL.
 

wetcoast

Registered User
Nov 20, 2018
22,247
10,126
Too much time surfing and playing acoustic guitar, dude needs to switch to Fortnite.

When expansion goes to 40 NHL teams under Bettman, the expansion fee will be like 1 billion dollars and the Honolulu Hawaiians GM Cliff fletcher will draft Jack Johnson with their first pick.

Fletcher in the presser will talk about JJ's calming influence in the locker room and how they want to build a relaxed team like atmosphere.
 
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rielledup

Registered User
Sep 17, 2015
573
531
These people you speak of also have a bunch of fancy stats that prove some of the best players in the league, like Erik Karlsson, aren't actually very good hockey players.

If the NHL was suddenly overrun by people who share the same sentiments as the HF braintrust, the league would crash and burn.

Which seasons are you talking about? In most of Karlssons best seasons analytics have shown that he is much better defensively than people think.
 

TheDawnOfANewTage

Dahlin, it’ll all be fine
Dec 17, 2018
12,023
17,505
When expansion goes to 40 NHL teams under Bettman, the expansion fee will be like 1 billion dollars and the Honolulu Hawaiians GM Cliff fletcher will draft Jack Johnson with their first pick.

Fletcher in the presser will talk about JJ's calming influence in the locker room and how they want to build a relaxed team like atmosphere.

Coach: "Well boys, we missed the playoffs. Again. Jack-"
JJ: "Well I was sittin waitin wishin.."
Team: "Chill. So chill."
 
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GOilers88

Fer Da
Dec 24, 2016
14,173
20,681
Advanced stats frequently rate Erik Karlsson as by far the best defenseman and a top-5 player in the NHL.
There were a few of threads earlier this year where lots of people kept trying to argue he wasn't as good as his reputation. My point was that people on HF throwing advanced stats around would certainly not make them better GM's than most currently employed, like he implied.
 

RebuildinVan

Registered User
Jun 25, 2017
2,245
2,064
There are hundreds of HFBoards users who, presumably with zero qualification and utilising publicly available information, could have walked up to Rutherford and put up a demonstration as to why Jack Johnson should not have been offered any contract.

It boggles my mind how this **** can happen.
I was trying to think of a similar way to put it....this nails it
 

TomasHertlsRooster

Don’t say eye test when you mean points
May 14, 2012
33,360
25,417
Fremont, CA
There were a few of threads earlier this year where lots of people kept trying to argue he wasn't as good as his reputation. My point was that people on HF throwing advanced stats around would certainly not make them better GM's than most currently employed, like he implied.

Actually, it was the people who use advanced stats who suggested that Karlsson was playing great and his counting stats would shortly return to the norm.
 

Aceboogie

Registered User
Aug 25, 2012
32,649
3,896
These people you speak of also have a bunch of fancy stats that prove some of the best players in the league, like Erik Karlsson, aren't actually very good hockey players.

If the NHL was suddenly overrun by people who share the same sentiments as the HF braintrust, the league would crash and burn.

This is the oddest comment of all time. I dont even want to pile on it. I actually want to understand where this came from. The analytics community loves Karlsson, he is the poster boy for them. He is actually very underrated when it comes to advanced stats. Because his advanced stats are always thru the roof, but other D keep on winning Norris trophies with much lower metrics

Maybe some Toronto fan or jaded Ottawa fan was trying to say what you said above, but I cant see anyone with any degree of knowledge in hockey analytics ever saying Karlsson isnt a very good hockey player
 

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