The Jack Johnson effect - Maybe he is as bad as Pens fans say

[Oak]

I'm still trying to figure out why someone thought it was a good idea to sign a 32 year old who was a healthy scratch for last years playoffs to a 5 year contract.

Intangibles. Locker room guy. Vet presence.... Take your pick.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

Yeah he's pretty bad. Bad positionally, not quick or fast or big and long to make up for any of that. Constantly loses puck races and battles down low.

I thought he would be good playing less minutes but he hasn't. A guy like Jusso Riikola is a much better defenseman and signed at a fraction of the cost.

 

[Pandaman11]

Why "as Pens fans say"? I've been saying it since his days as a King (and I'm sure I'm not the only one).

I know it's an overrated stat, but he's -117 in his career, just saying.

 

[StevenF1919]

This has been common knowledge for several years to everyone except for the hockey men.

 

[Maukkis]

Yeah, pretty much. That's exactly what I'm saying. You think the eye test can't outdo analytics, but you're not a GM. You're a fan. Based on bad analytics guys continuing to get big contracts, I'm willing to bet that they don't lean as heavily on analytics as fans do.

If terrible analytics players continuously get huge contracts from a ton of teams all throughout the league, that either tells you that GMs don't put much stock into analytics or a ton of GMs are idiots. Johnson is not the first physical player with horrible analytics to get a bad contract, and he sure won't be the last. It's really obvious that old school GMs don't value analytics as much as they value the eye test, and there are a lot more old school GMs in the NHL today than new GMs.

Call me crazy, but I think there is a slight issue with half the league's GMs not being up to the task then.

Going by the conventional wisdom does not get anyone too far in this day and age. The Johnson deal - albeit not the single worst thing to have happened lately - is a prime example of that.

Here's an analytics-driven prediction: there will be a similar thread next year, posted by a fan of whichever team signs Tyler Myers.

 

[Sam Spade]

The amount of hubris Rutherford had thinking the Penguins could "fix" something that has been broken basically since entering the NHL, is amazing. I mean they fixed Justin Schultz after all.

Crosby did his childhood a friend a solid though and he should be commended for that.

Let's see if the Pens can swallow their pride and scratch Johnson now that Schultz is back.

 

[Empoleon8771]

This has been common knowledge for several years to everyone except for the hockey men.

Yeah, I find it odd that people are somehow shocked when these bad analytics players get big contracts. It's also why I don't understand why people think the Johnson contract is immovable. Johnson today is the same Johnson he has always been, and it's the same Johnson that GMs have stupidly loved over the years. So why is that suddenly going to change now?

 

[Filthy Dangles]

Yeah, I find it odd that people are somehow shocked when these bad analytics players get big contracts. It's also why I don't understand why people think the Johnson contract is immovable. Johnson today is the same Johnson he has always been, and it's the same Johnson that GMs have stupidly loved over the years. So why is that suddenly going to change now?

Probably because he's in his 30's now and signed for half a decade.

 

[Chuck Norris Trophy]

JR maybe doesn't do the analytic stats stuff personally, but he said in the Player's Tribune article that he has a whole team around him doing that. It's not like he is not aware of the analytics. And to me this quote sounds like he trusts and listens to them.

Analytics are a big emphasis for our hockey-operations team, and I have an excellent team that looks at players from every angle. But, as a decision maker, you need to know the context behind the numbers.

Also, another quote from the article which explains alot.

If I have one defining management philosophy, it’s that I really believe in second chances. If a player is a good guy, and he’s got talent, and you give him a second chance, he’ll give you everything he’s got.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Call me crazy, but I think there is a slight issue with half the league's GMs not being up to the task then.

Going by the conventional wisdom does not get anyone too far in this day and age. The Johnson deal - albeit not the single worst thing to have happened lately - is a prime example of that.

Here's an analytics-driven prediction: there will be a similar thread next year, posted by a fan of whichever team signs Tyler Myers.

I agree, but you have to realize that actions by GMs suggest that NHL GMs don't agree, no? I think it's really easy to figure out why guys like Johnson have multiple suitors and gets a 5 year deal after a bad year. It's easy to figure out why Trevor Daley gets a 3 year contract after breaking his ankle, when his game is largely predicated on his skating. It's really easy to figure out why Ericsson, Staal, Girardi and Phaneuf continue to get big contracts or get targeted in trades. It's because GMs either don't value analytics for those players or they just don't value analytics overall. In the easiest terms I can describe it, it's because GMs are stupid and believe their old school ways are better than analytics.

Probably because he's in his 30's now and signed for half a decade.

And he signed for half a decade a year ago. Do you think that was just JR having a senile moment, and GMs will suddenly wise up about Johnson when they haven't for 10 years at this point? Dion Phaneuf was traded for a LTIR contract a year ago, and Phaneuf has a bunch of years left at over $5.25 million at that point while being terrible.

JR maybe doesn't do the analytic stats stuff personally, but he said in the Player's Tribune article that he has a whole team around him doing that. It's not like he is not aware of the analytics. And to me this quote sounds like he trusts and listens to them.

JR signing Johnson for 5 years and trading for Daley make me think he doesn't value analytics all that much.

 

[StevenF1919]

Yeah, I find it odd that people are somehow shocked when these bad analytics players get big contracts. It's also why I don't understand why people think the Johnson contract is immovable. Johnson today is the same Johnson he has always been, and it's the same Johnson that GMs have stupidly loved over the years. So why is that suddenly going to change now?

I'm fairly confident that at least a third if not more of the guys in upper management positions in the NHL are morons who aren't any smarter than your average fan.

JR maybe doesn't do the analytic stats stuff personally, but he said in the Player's Tribune article that he has a whole team around him doing that. It's not like he is not aware of the analytics. And to me this quote sounds like he trusts and listens to them.




Also, another quote from the article which explains alot.

Being aware of the analytics and ignoring them is even worse.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

JR always gets his man.

Exactly. Johnson wouldn't sign in Carolina, so Rutherford was forced to wait until he took over the Penguins before he was able to sign him.

Let no one say he isn't persistent.

 

[Canes]

JR always strangely falls in love with certain players. He builds up an image of the player in his head that doesn't match reality. JJ is one of those guys. JR is a risk taker, sometimes his moves work out well and sometimes they don't.

 

[Cardiac Jerks]

JR always strangely falls in love with certain players. He builds up an image of the player in his head that doesn't match reality. JJ is one of those guys. JR is a risk taker, sometimes his moves work out well and sometimes they don't.

And when they don’t he turns into a heartbreaker.

 

[Hivemind]

Just wear USA jerseys instead of Penguins jerseys and Jack Johnson will magically elevate his game.

 

[ronduguayshair]

A three year risk/reward deal would have made sense. They five year deal was mental.

The only aspect of his game that has been above the bar is his penalty killing.

 

[Cowumbus]

Because he fit Columbus system better.

*bottom pair

 

[Viqsi]

Yeah he's pretty bad. Bad positionally, not quick or fast or big and long to make up for any of that. Constantly loses puck races and battles down low.

The bolded actually represents a regression, but one that could be seen coming a mile away. His entire career has been based on the fact that he's such a fitness/athletics freak that he's been in good enough condition to make up for his errors - which meant that he was serviceable most of the time, and during moments when he wasn't having to compensate for his own failings (the occasional playoff series, for example) he became some kind of legendary badass.

Not having that anymore means he's just bad.

 

[Pens x]

Looking at that chart posted earlier, Crosby feels the effect more than damn near anyone else on the team. He's dragging him down!

Our GM is a dinosaur and our coach doesn’t seem interested in analytics. Chances are they were not aware how bad he was until the article came out. Rutherford probably wouldn’t even understand that chart in the article.

Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum seem to get worse and worse since the Cup wins. They are quickly becoming Dan Bylsma and Ray Shero 2.0’s.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

The very definition of a “tools” player. Physical specimen in his prime but never more than average in his own end. It’s amazing to think he’s closing in on 1000 games.

 

[Slyfox]

Why not just waive him and admit the mistake. MTL did it with Alzner. Pens have all their best players on great contracts. Move him to the Ahl and take the 2+ million cap hit

 

[KingsHockey24]

His nickname here in LA was Jack Minus Forever Johnson.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

What message is that argument supposed to convey? That the majority of GMs are deliberately being inefficient at their jobs?

The human eye cannot, I repeat, cannot outdo the good analytics can provide. If a GM does not utilise analytics, they should be fired on the spot, and if they do, catastrophes like this would not happen.

Even if he only used the eye test, you’d have to think that he could see how bad Jack Johnson is? How on earth do you get into Rutherford’s position as a top level executive, using only the eye test, when the eye test can’t even tell you how terrible Jack Johnson is?

 

[sr edler]

As Pens fans say? This guy's been in the league for almost 13 years. 6 years in LA. 7 years in Ohio. But somehow fans of the Pittsburgh Penguins are sitting on some gigantic league wide secret with said player because he's played 55 games with the club? What.

 

[Cellee]

He is terrible.

JR's worst move since coming to Pittsburgh.