The Importance of Drafting a Defenceman With the 6th OA?

[Lampedampe]

Alright so i've seen quite a few discussions lately about whether or not the Wings should target a defenseman with the 6th OA pick. While it seems like the consensus is that people prefer a defenseman, there however seems to be a disconnect whether or not it's crucial that they do so, with some people being perfectly fine with picking a forward.

I've long been under the impression that it would be absolutely crucial for them to pick a defenseman with the 6th pick, because i've always thought that top pairing defensemen in general take a longer time to develop. Thus it would make sense to go heavier on defense in the first years of a rebuild to avoid having your top forward's best years wasted by a defense that's still in development. I've also been under the impression that top-pairing defensemen are a lot harder to find past the first round, but this has also always been a discussion it seems because some claim that a lot of the best defensemen in the league weren't drafted in the 1st round while a large portion of the best forwards in the NHL were picked in the 1st round.

So i decided to take a look from 2010-2015 to see how many top-pairing defensemen were drafted in later rounds compared to the first round, and how long these defensemen took to develop into first pairing defensemen (the defintion of a first pairing defenseman is quite subjective though, so i picked whoever i personally seemed to fit the description). The years you see listed aren't how long until they made the nhl, but rather how long the took to develop into 1st pairing defensemen (also subjective).

This list is quite subjective, let me know if i missed someone or if someone i've listed don't belong.

(2nd-7th round)
2010:
faulk (4 years)
Klingberg (4 years)

2011:
Manson (6 years)

2012:
Parayko (3 years)
Severson (4 years)
Ghost (3 years)
Slavin (4 years)

2013:
-

2014:
Montour (3 years)

2015:
-
(jury still out on this one)

Total: 8
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

(1st round)
2010:
Fowler (stepped in first season)

2011:
Klefbom (5 years)
Hamilton (3 years)
Larsson (3 years)

2012:
Dumba (3-4 years depending on who you ask)
Lindholm (1 year)
Rielly (2 years)
Maatta (1-2 years, then injuries derailed him)
Trouba (4 years)

2013:
Morrisey (3-4 years)
Ristolainen (2 years)
Jones (2-3 years)
Nurse (4 years)

2014:
Ekblad (stepped in first season)

2015:
Werenski (1 year)
Provorov (1 year)

(2016 had Mcavoy)

Total: 16
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Outside of 2012 it seems like top pairing defensemen are hard to come by in the later rounds, and considering also that there's a much higher chance that your 1st round pick will actually develop into a 1st pairing defenseman.

It would be interesting to look further back, between 2000-2010 perhaps. Because i believe we would see more top-pairing defensemen picked in the later rounds in that time period (only speculation here), considering you have guys like Letang, Keith, Josi, Vlasic, Burns, Yandle etc etc picked in later rounds. That has yet to be seen though, but i do believe that scouts are getting better at evaluating Defensemen and therefore we see less and less top-pairing defensemen slip past the 1st round.

Another thing to consider are also the age of our yound forwards next season Larkin will turn 22 (soon to hit prime), Mantha 24, AA 24, Bertuzzi 24. Which is also a worrying aspect, and the possibility of seeing all of these guys have their prime's wasted on a obsolete team gets higher the longer it takes to fix the defense. Perhaps a sultion to the problem would be to package Mantha and AA for a defenseman (Bertuzzi is more a role forward anyway), given that they go after forwards with the earlier picks.

All in all i understand that this team has a lot of holes to fill before even consider the play-offs, and there's certainly a need of wingers as well as centers.. And even goalies. But i for one really believe that it's crucial to pick a defenseman with the first pick this year.

I understand that this thread and the information isn't perfect, to paint the full picture you'd have to look at forwards aswell and see how long they take to develop and what the chances are to find top-line fwd's in the 1st round compared to the later rounds. I'll considering doing a follow up on forwards and maybe look further back on defensemen if there's any sort of interest for this thread.

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[RedWingsfan55]

Or you look at Washington and see that 5 of their 6 defenseman were acquired and only carlson was developed.



Draft best player available.

 

[Lampedampe]

Or you look at Washington and see that 5 of their 6 defenseman were acquired and only carlson was developed.



Draft best player available.

I'm definitely open for that possibility (i mentioned it a tid bit in the thread), but i don't think that's overly reliable and it also took Washington quite a few years of PO failures to reach this point. But it's also not true that 5 of their 6 defensemen were acquired, Orlov, Djoos and Carlson were all drafted and developed by Washington. So yeah half of their current defense were acquired (which is definietly possible to do for the wings aswell).

 

[Frk It]

Or you look at Washington and see that 5 of their 6 defenseman were acquired and only carlson was developed.



Draft best player available.

Going BPA is how we got here... we drafted far too defenseman for like 10-15 years.

Or maybe the issue is our version of BPA is drafting a boat load of wingers and we suck at evaluating defenseman.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

Detroit drafts BWA. Best winger available. Just like with WR, you can never have enough wingers... right?

 

[BStinson]

Going BPA is how we got here... we drafted far too defenseman for like 10-15 years.

Or maybe the issue is our version of BPA is drafting a boat load of wingers and we suck at evaluating defenseman.

Also could’ve been where we’ve drafting.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

How many of the top 50 dmen in the league today were drafted in the top 10 vs bottom 200 picks?

If it' anything less than a 20-1 ratio then math wins once again

 

[Frk It]

Detroit drafts BWA. Best winger available. Just like with WR, you can never have enough wingers... right?

For the record, we were pretty damn good at drafting wingers in that time frame. So they stuck to what they were good at, which makes some sense.

Getting guys like Nyquist, Tatar, AA, etc in the later rounds is harder than people realize.

Also could’ve been where we’ve drafting.

Partially, sure.

 

[jkutswings]

...we suck at evaluating defenseman.

 

[Go Wings]

Or you look at Washington and see that 5 of their 6 defenseman were acquired and only carlson was developed.



Draft best player available.

The best player available will be a defensmen.

 

[ricky0034]

i'm beyond skeptical that the Wings are capable of getting a #1 Defenseman any way other than drafting one in the top 10

then you look at how this draft is much more Defenseman heavy in the top 10 than most(look at this years compared to last years or what's projected for next year etc),and how they take longer to develop in general and taking a Defenseman seems like something of a no-brainer to me this year even if they view an available forward as better

I think it's an opportunity that would be incredibly stupid to pass up,you can either take one this year at a slight reach(if a reach at all) or a couple years down the line be looking at a much bigger reach or just having an awful defense forever

 

[Henkka]

Going after a defenceman because of a need is not drafting a BPA if there's some better forwards available.

 

[lilidk]

Or you look at Washington and see that 5 of their 6 defenseman were acquired and only carlson was developed.



Draft best player available.

who can play defense . We have defense and bunch of one trick forwards .

 

[lilidk]

we just draft whoever McKenzie mock

 

[Henkka]

I'm definitely open for that possibility (i mentioned it a tid bit in the thread), but i don't think that's overly reliable and it also took Washington quite a few years of PO failures to reach this point. But it's also not true that 5 of their 6 defensemen were acquired, Orlov, Djoos and Carlson were all drafted and developed by Washington. So yeah half of their current defense were acquired (which is definietly possible to do for the wings aswell).

It's pretty much half from recent winners who they have drafted on defence.

Pens had Dumoulin, Letang and Määttä.
Hawks had Keith, Seabrook and Hjalmarsson.
Now Caps have Carlson, Orlov, Djoos.

I think our future core could be 2018 pick, Cholowski and Hronek. Then Dekeyser and Hicketts come outside draft as projects. Green or Green replacement comes from UFA and that's it.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

It's pretty much half from recent winners who they have drafted on defence.

Pens had Dumoulin, Letang and Määttä.
Hawks had Keith, Seabrook and Hjalmarsson.
Now Caps have Carlson, Orlov, Djoos.

I think our future core could be 2018 pick, Cholowski and Hronek. Then Dekeyser and Hicketts come outside draft as projects. Green or Green replacement comes from UFA and that's it.

Dumoulin was picked by Carolia, he is a part of the Staal trade.

I like Cholowski and Hronek a lot. Hopefully they can keep progressing a little better than the last batch of defense prospects. They have a lot of hockey IQ which I like and makes me think top 4 guys.

 

[82Ninety42011]

Draft best player available.

Always !!

 

[Shaman464]

Failing they get some inside info that there is a slam dunk center that other teams and scouts just aren't aware of, or Svech drops to them, there should be no reason not to get a defender.

 

[WesNichols14]

This draft is making me CRAZY!!!

I keep changing my mind!!
at this point as long as they don't really reach or trade down to 13 or something I'll be fine.

 

[Claypool]

i'm beyond skeptical that the Wings are capable of getting a #1 Defenseman any way other than drafting one in the top 10

How many true #1 defensemen are there in the NHL? 10 maybe? Most teams can't draft and develop those guys. This isn't a Red Wings problem.

 

[ricky0034]

How many true #1 defensemen are there in the NHL? 10 maybe? Most teams can't draft and develop those guys. This isn't a Red Wings problem.

they're pretty uniquely awful at it though

the Wings drafted Kronwall 18 years ago now,who's the best defenseman they've drafted since then? Kyle Quincey? I mean think about that for a second,almost 2 decades and the best they've managed is Kyle Quincey

literally every single team has done better than that,and not just better but way better

 

[Claypool]

they're pretty uniquely awful at it though

the Wings drafted Kronwall 18 years ago now,who's the best defenseman they've drafted since then? Kyle Quincey? I mean think about that for a second,almost 2 decades and the best they've managed is Kyle Quincey

literally every single team has done better than that,and not just better but way better

They didn't have a first round draft pick in 01, 02, 03, 04, '12. That's the price you pay when you try to win.

Name me that great defensemen Edmonton drafted since taking Smith in 1981.

Name me that great defensemen Chicago drafted since taking Seabrook in 2003.

Name me that great defensemen San Jose drafted since taking Vlasic in 2005.

Name me that great defensemen Pittsburgh drafted since taking Letang in 2006.

Name me that great defensemen Los Angeles drafted since taking Doughty in 2008.

I could go on but I stopped caring. The point is you don't have a clue what you're talking about. The player you're expecting the Red Wings to draft, while at the same time trying to contend for championships for a quarter-century, is nearly impossible to get.

 

[Pavels Dog]

So i decided to take a look from 2010-2015 to see how many top-pairing defensemen were drafted in later rounds compared to the first round

We have two 1sts, so we could take a forward at #6 and still get a D in the 1st, trading up is an option too.
10-15 is also pretty early. Takes plenty of guys 5+ years to become legit top-pair D.

That said, I definitely feel like on paper our best option is to take one of the available D-men at #6.

they're pretty uniquely awful at it though

the Wings drafted Kronwall 18 years ago now,who's the best defenseman they've drafted since then? Kyle Quincey? I mean think about that for a second,almost 2 decades and the best they've managed is Kyle Quincey

literally every single team has done better than that,and not just better but way better

Literally every single team has had more picks and higher draft position for the majority of that time though.

Even when you talk about the non 10-15 picks, you can pretty easily compile a very short list of high-end d-men that were actually available for us to take. And what you often end up with is situations such as 2007: we took Brendan Smith at #27, Subban was taken at #43. Bad pick, right? Only Smith is by far a better pick than anyone taken between him and Subban.

We've done bad, but context is needed as well.

 

[RedWingsfan55]

The best player available will be a defensmen.

Well I agree that should most likely be the case.

But if say svechnikov dropped to us. You take him, no question because he would be the best available. Same thing with tkachuk or dahlin. Now obviously they wont drop to us, but when you need elite talent at all positions you take the best player available.

 

[RedWingsfan55]

I'm definitely open for that possibility (i mentioned it a tid bit in the thread), but i don't think that's overly reliable and it also took Washington quite a few years of PO failures to reach this point. But it's also not true that 5 of their 6 defensemen were acquired, Orlov, Djoos and Carlson were all drafted and developed by Washington. So yeah half of their current defense were acquired (which is definietly possible to do for the wings aswell).

My mistake, thought orlov was acquired and forgot about djoos.

Anyways they have 1 on each line acquired. Look at tampa bay and who they've acquired.


I think that since defenseman are so difficult to actually develop that if you have a tie ranking players. I value centers the most, then wingers then defenseman when drafting. Defense is more of a crapshoot.


But again best player available.