'the hockey code' projects 2020 ufa/rfa contracts

SirloinUB

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Aug 20, 2010
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For a counter point, evolvingwild has this on Bertuzzi (sourced from Max Bultman):
As for the projections, Evolving-Hockey has Bertuzzi predicted to sign a four-year deal worth $5.4 million per year. By Dom’s model, that would leave a bit of room for surplus value for the team. But as the term and salary projections go up (Evolving-Hockey has Bertuzzi’s predicted salary on five-, six- and seven-year deals all around $6 million), that margin for surplus value shrinks a bit.

interesting thing here is what is Bertuzzi’s long term role? Say we draft Raymond/Perfetti/Holtz does Bert still get enough opportunity to justify a contract up to 6 million?


For mantha they project (also sourced from Bultman):
The model’s most likely outcome for Mantha is a four-year deal at $6.736 million per season, with the second-most likely being a five-year term at just shy of $7 million ($6.976 million). If you stretch into the six- or seven-year terms, the projection goes up to about $7.5 million, and then all the way up to $8.5 million at eight years.

the obvious complication with Mantha is sample size.
 
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Bench

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We may have missed on Suter and Parise but this off-season we're bringing in Pietrangelo and Hall!
 

Henkka

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I just have general feeling, that those highest caphits won't happen, because of the 3-year cap rise delay.

Teams did project for 84M-88M cap rise for becoming 2 seasons, and have curently no extra cap space for these top free agents.

This will push the caphits down. Many won't sign to contenders with high money, because there's no space. And many won't sign to bad teams, who have most space.

Maybe it will push the terms down, and caphits that way.

This 2020 is a special free agency because of corona, and I don' think past examples are the best comparables. We could see unexpected caphits more.
 

deca guard

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some fans underrating tuzzi's worth imo . you cant judge his worth by points ! i also add that because of his smarts and compete level i see an A in his future . im already sold on him , right next to larkin and seider as the long term core , and no doubt offer him 8 years at 6.5 easily
 

Henkka

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Yzerman would be a genius if he could pull off both Hall and Pietrangelo, Would be very expensive probably around $19 million combined.

Suter's wife wasn't from Michigan.
Parise's wife wasn't from Michigan.
Pietrangelo's wife isn't from Michigan.
Hall's wife isn't from Michigan.

Krug's wife is from Michigan. I predict him to sign with us. :)
 

Number1RedWingsFan52

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Suter's wife wasn't from Michigan.
Parise's wife wasn't from Michigan.
Pietrangelo's wife isn't from Michigan.
Hall's wife isn't from Michigan.

Krug's wife is from Michigan. I predict him to sign with us. :)
Yup it's pretty telling that Torey and his wife stayed at her parents home there in East Lansing during Covid, They're both family oriented his Parents in Livonia and hers in East Lansing. Plus he bought a home near his brother in Adrian. Yup Krug is coming home to Motown.
 

deca guard

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Suter's wife wasn't from Michigan.
Parise's wife wasn't from Michigan.
Pietrangelo's wife isn't from Michigan.
Hall's wife isn't from Michigan.

Krug's wife is from Michigan. I predict him to sign with us. :)
and thats what makes the stars twinkle = boys worship women
 

jkutswings

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some fans underrating tuzzi's worth imo . you cant judge his worth by points ! i also add that because of his smarts and compete level i see an A in his future . im already sold on him , right next to larkin and seider as the long term core , and no doubt offer him 8 years at 6.5 easily
Then count me among those underrating him. I wouldn't offer a cent more than $5M a year. A much needed player, but one to be paid as the (great) supporting player he is, not as a potential star.
 

jkutswings

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what do you think 5 is worth say 5 years from now ?
No idea. I wouldn't be offering 5 years.

Bertuzzi is a guy I definitely want on my team - for as many useful years as I can get, and not one year longer. So I'd probably offer 3-4 years at $5M per, and then be prepared to cut him loose right before his game tails off while another team overpays for his remaining services.

I'm not hating on the kid. Just being as cutthroat as I feel I have to be for when the real window of contention will require every last penny of cap efficiency.
 

Henkka

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No idea. I wouldn't be offering 5 years.

Bertuzzi is a guy I definitely want on my team - for as many useful years as I can get, and not one year longer. So I'd probably offer 3-4 years at $5M per, and then be prepared to cut him loose right before his game tails off while another team overpays for his remaining services.

I'm not hating on the kid. Just being as cutthroat as I feel I have to be for when the real window of contention will require every last penny of cap efficiency.


Cap could be 100M after 7 years from this day.

Even if it doesn rise for next 3 seasons. But after that, when the life after corona normalizes and we get the new TV-deal, it could rise easily rise 5% per year, and be 99,7M at season 2026-27.

5M Bertuzzi or 7 million Krug is peanuts on those days, when the relative caphit go down at same as the player could regress. Those are all middle6 salaries vs. 100M cap. Like what Dan Cleary was at 3M and 50M cap. 6M Bertuzzi is the same guy with 100M cap. Krug would be 3.5M defenceman, like Brad Stuart and Kronwall were on a contender?

It's nothing extraordinary.
 

MBH

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Seems like the numbers being thrown around for Mantha/Bertuzzi haven't changed.
We've got a flat cap - potentially for 2-3-4 seasons.
Shouldn't that mean a decrease in the salaries we talked about in January and February??
 

Ghost of Ethan Hunt

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Seems like the numbers being thrown around for Mantha/Bertuzzi haven't changed.
We've got a flat cap - potentially for 2-3-4 seasons.
Shouldn't that mean a decrease in the salaries we talked about in January and February??
Yes, it should.

I changed mine once the flat cap for 3 seasons was announced. I'm still thinking SY gets these 2 locked in @:


Bert @$4.75-5.25M/5-6yrs

Mantha @$5.25-6M/4-5 yrs


7-8 years deals are for core young 20's Stars/Superstars. B&M were pacing to be semi-stars at best in the last ~1.25 seasons, though both are core. GM's know this, fans over-value their players.
 

Tetsuo

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Yes, it should.

I changed mine once the flat cap for 3 seasons was announced. I'm still thinking SY gets these 2 locked in @:


Bert @$4.75-5.25M/5-6yrs

Mantha @$5.25-6M/4-5 yrs


7-8 years deals are for core young 20's Stars/Superstars. B&M were pacing to be semi-stars at best in the last ~1.25 seasons, though both are core. GM's know this, fans over-value their players.
I would love those deals but as it is now Mantha doesn't sign long term for any AAV that doesn't begin with a 6 at minimum. He's our best player and can easily justify earning what Larkin makes, at minimum. We can be thankful his injuries might push his final AAV down from beginning with a 7.
 

SirloinUB

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Seems like the numbers being thrown around for Mantha/Bertuzzi haven't changed.
We've got a flat cap - potentially for 2-3-4 seasons.
Shouldn't that mean a decrease in the salaries we talked about in January and February??


Ultimately we’ll have to wait and see but the projections are already suggesting this.

In March Mantha’s contract was projected at 5 years for 6.97.

Now the most recent projection has his 5 year contract at 6.25
 

MBH

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Let's take these numbers at face value and apply them to the Red Wings

RFAs
Mantha 5x6.3
Bertuzzi 5x4.7 (my estimate)
No other RFAs other Bowey (1.8) and Erne (barely) cost us more than the $950,000 it costs to demote them.
So I might walk from Bowey.

How about UFASs

Centers
Granlund -5x6.2M - Granlund is interesting but hasn't been used as a center, for the most part, since he was 23. If my pro scouts thought he was a center, I'd consider that 5x6.2M contract.
Soderberg. About to turn 35. f*** no.
Namestnikov-3x3.6M - Could be an interesting option. Hasn't really been a center much lately, though. And wasn't great at faceoffs back when he was.
Haula - 3x3M - Good on faceoffs, Kills penalties. Good speed. OK size. Decent production. Why is this guy passed around the league like a hot potato?
Galchenyuk- 1x2.4M - On four teams since 2018. Not really a center, right? I mean, might as well go with Fabbri, right? But maybe?
Girgensons - 1x1.2M Another guy who's not really a C who never won faceoffs and was moved to the Wing.
Vladimir Sobotka - Always liked this guy.
Brassard - Not listed, but as good as he's been for NYI, I say no dice.

I think I'd take a risk on Haula or take a flyer on Galchenyuk, Girgensons or Sobotka.

LW
Taylor Hall-7x10M- f*** no.
No thanks to Maroon, Martin, Sheary, Vesey, Nieto, etc etc etc

RW
Hoffman, Simmonds, Toffoli, Dadnonov, some of these other guys who were listed at center.No thanks.

LD
Krug. 5x8M - f*** no.
TJ Brodie. 6x5,8 - Maybe, but no.
Kulikov-3x3.7 - Nope
Sekera - 1x1.4 - Honestly, that's a good deal for him.
Joel Edmundson - 5x4.7M- nope
Erik Gustafson - 4x4.8M - nope
Del Zotto - 2x2M- Meh

I'd consider Sekera. But ultimately, I stick with Cholo/Nemeth/Dekeyseras the plan.

RD
Pietrangelo- 8x10.5 - Nope.
Barrie- 3x6.9 - Nope
Schultz - 1x2.5 - Price ain't bad, but not what we need.
Vatanen - 1x3.8M - Not bad.
Ceci - 3x4.3M - nope
Tanev - 4x4.6M - nope
Braun - 1x2.2m - Possible
Gudas - 3x3.4M- nope
Pysyk - 1x.1,2m - Decent production, but no. Spare part.
Van Riemsdyk - 1 x 1.2M - OK depth guy. Spare part.
Shattenkirk - Nope
Bogosian - He'd probably look as bad as he did in Buffalo
Rutta -1 x 1.1M - Looks like a fringe defenseman now.
Schenn-Would get eaten alive on our squad.


Braun and Vatanen are the two I'd look at..

Goalies
Holtby-
Crawford-
Lehner-
Markstrom-
Greiss-
Talbot-
Khudobin-
Dell
They didn't list goalies.
But I'd pay up to $4M on a short term deal for a decent goalie.

--------------------------------
So...
Mantha, Bertuzzi.
A bunch of $950,000 or less RFAs.

UFA considerations
C - One of: Haula, Galchenyuk, Gigensons, Sobotka, But consider Fabbri at C
LW- none
RW- none
LD- maybe Sekera
RD- Vatanen or Braun
G-Whoever.

----
Svech Larkin Mantha
Bertuzzi Fabbri Zadina
Filppula Haula Timashov
Erne Glendening Helm
Abdelkader/Nielsen

Dekeyser Seider
Nemeth Hronek
Cholowski Braun
Biega

Markstrom/Bernier
 
Last edited:

Winger98

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Seems like the numbers being thrown around for Mantha/Bertuzzi haven't changed.
We've got a flat cap - potentially for 2-3-4 seasons.
Shouldn't that mean a decrease in the salaries we talked about in January and February??

Not if you're asking them to sign on for 5+ years. If they have to take too big of an apparent discount, they have more incentive to roll the dice on a shorter deal and look to cash in once the cap starts moving again.

edit: I'd roll the dice on Galchenyuk or Haula. Galchenyuk if we want to roll the dice a bit, Haula if we just want a definite option at center.
 
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