The Habs in a few years

[Jay Wolf]

I'm not sold on this, I'm not entirely sure he'll even make it in the NHL. Pretty high-risk assumption.

Why do you say that? I've heard nothing but glowing descriptions of how skilled and fast and smart he is. Please elaborate, since I know very little about this prospect.

 

[montreal]

My question is, considering the young core that Bergevin is building around, and the prospects we have coming up, what do you think our full line-up will be once our core is done developping and we've enterend that ''consistent contending team'' status ?

That's just about impossible to know what the team will look like down the road. Imo there are still a number of holes and question marks as to the future success of the Habs in terms of being a consistent contending team. Having players like Subban and Galchenyuk gives you 2 outstanding talents (likely a few years before Gally really gets going I would assume) but there's a clear lack of high end talent in the organization although that's discounting the army of undersized skilled forwards throughout the system.

In time we will see how MB's moves paid off, I like the approach to build through the draft, imo it's the right way to go about it, but that could take years to pull off. I also really like the improvements MB and his staff have already done towards improving a major weakness in the past and that is to improve the development system. Hopefully in the future we will see less of our former draft picks having success elsewhere, since if the club in the past had done a better job at working with their young talent perhaps things would have gone at least a little differently (since I know not all prospects/players can hack it in Montreal due to rabid fan base/media etc...)

I think we have the foundation for a cup contender in a few years, but without a superstar player up front, I think we'll be just that: contenders.

I don't think you need a superstar to win a cup, but in a few years hopefully with the combo of Subban and Galchenyuk we have 2 superstars.

In 3 years Plekanec, Galchenyuk, Gallagher, Eller and Pacioretty will still be top 6 forwards, McCarron and Bournival will be able to play in the top nine. Holland, Leblanc, Hudon, de la Rose, Collberg, Thomas and Lehkonen will all be close to be NHL ready. That's a lot of assets to upgrade the team.

I wouldn't bet on all those players being here 3 years from now, in hockey that's a long time from now so it's very hard to guess what changes will be made by then.

People have to consider the fact that Lehkonen will become a franchise player.

I don't see how they have to since there's no way anyone can know what Lehkonen will do in the NHL.

Why do you say that? I've heard nothing but glowing descriptions of how skilled and fast and smart he is. Please elaborate, since I know very little about this prospect.

My concern is how he would do against teams like boston, he looks like he could get beat up by a 12 year old girl. Very slight frame and he's already had 2 concussions at 17/18. To me right now he looks like he would get killed on the smaller ice when facing a team like boston (which let's face it, he will have to do a lot) but if he can overcome his lack of size/strength and avoids future concussions then the Habs would have a highly skilled forward on their hands.

 

[RealityBytes]

In 2 or 3 years, the Habs will be in the same position in looking to be better in 2 or 3 years, just as when the "Ks" were here and the Habs would be better in 2 or 3 years.

Yes, the Habs have some good players coming up but the rest of the world is not standing still. Every team has good players coming up and Montreal's are not anything special compared to other teams. If MB is not going to trade for any players to improve long term and only rely on drafting to improve, then he has to have exceptional drafts. Else, with only average drafts in comparison to other team's drafts, it will result in an average Hab's team at best. (As an example, with MB not trading up in the 2013 draft to get a star, he may have gotten a lot of volume but he didn't get the player(s) he wanted and settled for McCarron as 1st pick who will probably be just average at best.) A lot of average players does not make a team great, at best it makes it average.

In other words, not gaining any ground, but just running on the treadmill and getting nowhere.

 

[montreal]

(As an example, with MB not trading up in the 2013 draft to get a star, he may have gotten a lot of volume but he didn't get the player(s) he wanted and settled for McCarron as 1st pick who will probably be just average at best.)

So how do you figure McCarron will probably be just average at best?

 

[CanadienShark]

I think what the Winnipeg Jets have gone through is a better comparison. In a couple of years, fire Dudley and Bergevin, scale back the team's cap budget and let the team struggle for 3 years until we get enough high end talent to be a top tier talent team.

I don't see Bergevin's strategy working at all because I don't see us being a better team in a couple of years then we are now, maybe better in some ways but not as good in others. My prediction is he gets his butt fired in 2 or 3 years and rightfully so.

Dude, you have got to be one of Bergevin's biggest bashers. You seem to be full of negative comments about the Habs. The Habs are actually in a great position to be a long term contender. My prediction is that the Habs are a legit contender in two years.

 

[JLP]

...

Yes, the Habs have some good players coming up but the rest of the world is not standing still. Every team has good players coming up and Montreal's are not anything special compared to other teams. ...

This is a point that tends to get overlooked. All other teams have also participated in the draft and have promising prospects.

Also I've seen our 17 year-olds arranged in fantastic future lines as if that's just the way it's going to be: Prospect X is destined to make the NHL as a top-line right winger, Prospect Y will be a top-pairing defenceman. Ridiculous and sorry to piss on the parade but half our (or any team's) prospects are not going to amount to anything close to what's often imagined of them.

/rant

 

[JayKing]

THE FORUM has spoken! Bergevin is an atrocious GM

In actuality it's difficult to predict our lineup as in 2-3 years we'll have an abundance of prospect and we'll trade some to plug some holes we'll have then. I will say that Subban,Patch, Galchenyuk, Eller, Tinordi will be there. The rest? I don't know.

As for Bergevin's work, as i said in other post. Those who bash him can't see farther than their nose. I will say it's WAY too early to tell. Especially if you talk of the product on the ice, which is ultimately how we will judge him.

Overreacting much? They're just not giving credit to Bergevin for the players he didn't bring except for Galchenyuk.

 

[NobleSix]

Wow, by the sounds of some of these posts it really make me believe that many people have no idea what they are talking about. Classic "what have you done for me lately" habs board. What did you expect Bergevin to do in one year? Come in and make 10 amazing steal trades and make our team a cup contender overnight? The only real players that have any trade value right now are basically our core players, and god forbid Bergevin move one of our core players, or even Plekanec for that matter without everyone pissing their pants and crying about it.

Bergevin has only one (half) season under his belt and many of you are already writing him off? Funny. Not too sure how long many of you think it takes to rebuild and sustain an entire franchise, but I can guarantee that it's longer than 1 season. It's not like he isn't trying to make the team better and more competitive. He already stated he tried to make same trades to get bigger, but the asking price is just way to high, especially for our midget team.

So looks like we'll be building through the draft, like Bergevin already said a countless times. So why don't you all try something new and be patient. We most likely wont be contending for the cup within these next two years anyway. So sit back and be patient. We're rebuilding if you haven't noticed.

/Rant

 

[Znthnk]

Wow... some of these posts make me wonder why some go through the torture of rooting for the Habs.

I enjoy watching a competitive team with skill and character. So far, the Habs are fitting the bill.. when they didn't, I didn't follow the games as much. Making the playoffs, a hot goalie, key players lifting their game and a little luck and who knows?

I'm satisfied as a whole with Bergevin's job (Gomez exit, Galchenyuk,waiting out PK), despite some questionable decisions (Moen, Desharnais). He didn't indulge in the orgy of overspending last UFA period, despite the temptation to quickly improve the team. He gets a couple of more years in my book to shape this team closer to his vision, and then I feel I will be better able to see whether his path to the cup is a valid one. Until then, he'll get the benefit of the doubt.

 

[RealityBytes]

So how do you figure McCarron will probably be just average at best?

In turn what makes you think he will be a star?

He doesn't look like anything special, at least yet. Even MB preferred to take Frederik Gauthier (as per post draft reviews MB was physically upset after Toronto took Gauthier, or, rather his gamble of not trading up didn't work). McCarron was slated around 45th on the pre draft pick lists and went surprisingly early most probably due to his size which was a draft goal for MB.

One can never tell for sure yet but according to analytics of the NHL draft, only 22% of players drafted in the second round will make it to play a year in the NHL, and of those 22% almost none will be a star. In McCarron's place, even though he was drafted early from his projection at 25th, his is still probably to make the NHL, but probably as an average player and not as a star.

As an example, if you look at other teams such as Toronto who has six 6'5 big hitters: Franson, Bodie, DeVane, Colborne, Fraser & McClaren and Ottawa has four: Kassian, Cowen, Gryba, and Wiercioch. Some are starters but none are supertstars. The point is: these guys are all big and big hitters but they all suffer from the same issue that McCarron does, they are not all that fast. Aside from Cowen at $3M all the rest are well below the average salary of the NHL, or in other words, getting less than average salary. Being big does not necessarily mean being good.

Nothing is 100% for sure at this point, and mistakes do happen, but these analytics are generally close to true, and that is a lot of what I am basing this on. It's only a projection at this point and look at Subban who was an exception at 43rd that turned out very well. Still though, and from what I've seen (to me at least), McCarron has not shown to being anything more than just an average big guy.

 

[Canadiens Ghost]

Wow, by the sounds of some of these posts it really make me believe that many people have no idea what they are talking about. Classic "what have you done for me lately" habs board. What did you expect Bergevin to do in one year? Come in and make 10 amazing steal trades and make our team a cup contender overnight? The only real players that have any trade value right now are basically our core players, and god forbid Bergevin move one of our core players, or even Plekanec for that matter without everyone pissing their pants and crying about it.

Bergevin has only one (half) season under his belt and many of you are already writing him off? Funny. Not too sure how long many of you think it takes to rebuild and sustain an entire franchise, but I can guarantee that it's longer than 1 season. It's not like he isn't trying to make the team better and more competitive. He already stated he tried to make same trades to get bigger, but the asking price is just way to high, especially for our midget team.

So looks like we'll be building through the draft, like Bergevin already said a countless times. So why don't you all try something new and be patient. We most likely wont be contending for the cup within these next two years anyway. So sit back and be patient. We're rebuilding if you haven't noticed.

/Rant

Excellent post.

To get something good in a trade, you have to give something good. This isn't NHL14. You wont get Stamkos for Plekanec, Leblanc and a 4th rounder. Sometimes, our fanbase is really clueless.

 

[ECWHSWI]

It isn't easy to win a Cup but tanking is a "better" plan then praying and hoping some mid round picks pan out.

If Bergevin came out and said his goals were to have home-ice advantage to start the playoffs and build a balanced team I could live with that instead of what he says.

believe or not, but GM just dont pray and hope, whatever their plan is...

I know it's hard for you expert to get, but there's a lot of work involved even though he isnt doing the moves you would.

 

[montreal]

In turn what makes you think he will be a superstar?

He doesn't look like anything special, at least yet. Even MB preferred to take Frederik Gauthier (as per post draft reviews MB was physically upset after Toronto took Gauthier, or, rather his gamble of not trading up didn't work). McCarron was slated around 45th on the pre draft pick lists and went surprisingly early most probably due to his size which was a draft goal for MB.

One can never tell for sure yet but according to analytics of the NHL draft, only 22% of players drafted in the second round will make it to play a year in the NHL, and of those 22% almost none will be a star. In McCarron's place, even though he was drafted early from his projection at 25th, his is still probably to make the NHL, but probably as an average player and not as a star.

As an example, if you look at other teams such as Toronto who has six 6'5 big hitters: Franson, Bodie, DeVane, Colborne, Fraser & McClaren and Ottawa has four: Kassian, Cowen, Gryba, and Wiercioch. Some are starters but none are supertstars. The point is: these guys are all big and big hitters but they all suffer from the same issue that McCarron does, they are not all that fast. Aside from Cowen at $3M all the rest are well below the average salary of the NHL, or in other words, getting less than average salary. Being big does not necessarily mean being good.

Nothing is 100% for sure at this point, and mistakes do happen, but these analytics are generally close to true, and that is a lot of what I am basing this on. It's only a projection at this point and look at Subban who was an exception at 43rd that turned out very well. Still though, and from what I've seen (to me at least), McCarron has not shown to being anything more than just an average big guy.

So at what point did I say McCarron would be a superstar?

 

[RealityBytes]

So at what point did I say McCarron would be a superstar?

You didn't per se, but you also implied he wouldn't be just average which I took as meaning him to be better than average or in other words, a star.

When you asked "So how do you figure McCarron will probably be just average at best?" ... you now have my answer why I think that.

 

[Monctonscout]

You didn't per se, but you also implied he wouldn't be just average which I took as meaning him to be better than average or in other words, a star.

When you asked "So how do you figure McCarron will probably be just average at best?" ... you now have my answer why I think that.

You can be an above average player without being a star. Stars are guys that are all stars most years...

I think McCarron can be a guy that puts up around 45-50 points and dominates physically(forecheck, hits, fights, net drive). That's clearly above average in the NHL.

 

[RealityBytes]

You can be an above average player without being a star. Stars are guys that are all stars most years...

I think McCarron can be a guy that puts up around 45-50 points and dominates physically(forecheck, hits, fights, net drive). That's clearly above average in the NHL.

Star, average, or poor ... anything else is just splitting hairs.

Anyway, you have your opinion but I don't think he will be anywhere close to that. (See my post #60.)

 

[Monctonscout]

Star, average, or poor ... anything else is just splitting hairs.

Anyway, you have your opinion but I don't think he will be anywhere close to that. (See my post #60.)

Not sure why you compare McCarron to a bunch of journeymen and C prospects. Just being 6'5" doesn't make you a good player...but being 6'5" and skating like you are 6', having a mean streak and good hockey sense along with pretty good hands gives you a pretty good chance at making an impact at the NHL level.

I'm not saying he will be better than Lucic, but at 18 he is better than Lucic was...a fair bit bigger and better overall. Lucic had a break out year at 18 and was in the NHL at 19. McCarron will probably require more seasoning, but he is already ahead of that curve.

 

[montreal]

You didn't per se, but you also implied he wouldn't be just average which I took as meaning him to be better than average or in other words, a star.

When you asked "So how do you figure McCarron will probably be just average at best?" ... you now have my answer why I think that.

So I didn't say he would be a superstar, it's you that jumped to that conclusion. The problem I have is that you said

McCarron will probably be just average at best

but there's no way you can know that since the kid was just drafted 3 months ago. It is impossible to know that his upside will be just average at best, just sounds like someone trying to stir up crap.

McCarron will end up being whatever he becomes, no one knows just what they may be. Yes he could end up being just average or worse or better or much much better. Drafting is just one step in a long process, trying to predict the future is never an easy thing. Each year we will see how he progresses and go from there. Imo what he brings is something the Habs so sorely need that it's going to make him much more valuable to the Habs then he would with most other clubs. But we'll see how it goes for him in the OHL, then we'll see how it goes for him in the AHL and then we'll see how it goes for him in the NHL.

 

[RealityBytes]

The problem I have is that you said but there's no way you can know that since the kid was just drafted 3 months ago. It is impossible to know that his upside will be just average at best, just sounds like someone trying to stir up crap.

McCarron will end up being whatever he becomes, no one knows just what they may be. Yes he could end up being just average or worse or better or much much better. Drafting is just one step in a long process, trying to predict the future is never an easy thing. Each year we will see how he progresses and go from there. Imo what he brings is something the Habs so sorely need that it's going to make him much more valuable to the Habs then he would with most other clubs. But we'll see how it goes for him in the OHL, then we'll see how it goes for him in the AHL and then we'll see how it goes for him in the NHL.

Stop making a mountain out of a molehill. I said only time will tell and I may be wrong, but that probably (not 100% cast in concrete and reread post #60 more closely) he will be average and that is my opinion and is based on many reviews. You believe what you want.

Sorry if my opinion is bursting a bubble.

That's it, no more from me on this.

 

[Habruti!]

Very hard to predict what type of foward group we will have on this team but the D is starting to shape up quite nicely. I would tend to think that two years from now both Beaulieu and Tinordi will be fixture on mtl D, that Markov will be gone and that Emelin, Goerges will still be there. Subban and Diaz are pretty Young... So two years from now we could very well see the following D line:

Emelin - Suban
Beaulieu - Tinordi
Georges - Diaz/Dietz/Nygren

I would also bet that we will have few trades this year at the deadline where Markov and Gionta would both be very attractive at the deadline. Moen will be gone. I would not be supprised either to see Plekanek or Desharnais be traded by the end of the season and have a forward group that looks like this.

Pacioretty, Galchenyuk, Briere
Bourque, Eller, Gallagher
Bournival, Plekanek, Leblancs
Prust, White, Parros