The Great Dale Weise Debate (& other ex-Hawks) volume 3

[Rolo]

John Tavares the reason why Matt Moulson, PA Parenteau, and to a lesser extent; Josh Bailey, Anders Lee and Kyle Okposo are getting/got paid the big bucks.

 

[clydesdale line]

Everythings not ok: A sobering admission from Nick Boynton.

Everything's Not O.K. | By Nick Boynton

The Carcillo read/video was very good too. Didn't realize he has another kid on the way. Good for him. Hopefully he lives a normal enough life to watch his kids grow up.

 

[BobbyJet]

Ben Smith is off to play in Germany for 3 years. A good move for him I reckon.

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

The Carcillo read/video was very good too. Didn't realize he has another kid on the way. Good for him. Hopefully he lives a normal enough life to watch his kids grow up.

Eh, I liked Boynton's piece because it definitely felt like he felt guilty and owned it a bit. Carcillo was getting suspended in 2015, not 1995. Kinda hard to totally blame the league like concussions were this great big mystery three years ago.

All for the work car bomb is doing now and I hope both find a healthy way to cope with their mental illness.

 

[Blue Liner]

Ben Smith is off to play in Germany for 3 years. A good move for him I reckon.

Europe is a good option for a guy like him. Not likely to make his way back into the NHL at this point. Go make more money, get more perks, enjoy a better lifestyle than the AHL one. Especially the DEL, they play less games, better schedule. He'll be a very good player in that league.

 

[Blue Liner]

Eh, I liked Boynton's piece because it definitely felt like he felt guilty and owned it a bit. Carcillo was getting suspended in 2015, not 1995. Kinda hard to totally blame the league like concussions were this great big mystery three years ago.

All for the work car bomb is doing now and I hope both find a healthy way to cope with their mental illness.

He's not doing it solely on his own behalf, though. The fact is the league to this very day continues to deny any CTE information and will have none of it. That's continuing to misinform your employees and take no responsibility for anything that happens at all. Sweeping it under the rug like it doesn't exist. That's what he's fighting for more than anything. And what occurred in the past previous to 2015 in the decades prior, guys like Montador getting their brains mushed 10, 15 years ago and being sent back out there like they're just fine. I get your point, but his fight is a greater one than just that and speaks much more to what the league is doing, or not, today versus the past. Unless I'm really misinterpreting it.

 

[BK]

The league denying the correlation between concussions and CTE is embarrassing.

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

He's not doing it solely on his own behalf, though. The fact is the league to this very day continues to deny any CTE information and will have none of it. That's continuing to misinform your employees and take no responsibility for anything that happens at all. Sweeping it under the rug like it doesn't exist. That's what he's fighting for more than anything. And what occurred in the past previous to 2015 in the decades prior, guys like Montador getting their brains mushed 10, 15 years ago and being sent back out there like they're just fine. I get your point, but his fight is a greater one than just that and speaks much more to what the league is doing, or not, today versus the past. Unless I'm really misinterpreting it.

I've said elsewhere that more than any one body the league is at fault. Carcillo's message is great and I'd rather an iffy messenger than no messenger but Carcillo is pretty much Barry Bonds telling everyone the danger of steroids.

 

[CallMeShaft]

Might take some of the sting out of the Saad/Panarin swap. Kid wants to get PAYED.

 

[No Fun Shogun]

And he'll deserve every dime of it. Only question is if they trade him this offseason, as there's no chance he'll be moved at the trade deadline if they're remotely sniffing a playoff spot.

And if I were an NHLer/AHLer looking to play overseas, I always highlight Switzerland as where I'd want to go. Essentially the best travel schedule possible, good standard of competition, damn solid arenas and practice facilities, and phenomenal standard of living.

 

[JaegerDice]

And he'll deserve every dime of it. Only question is if they trade him this offseason, as there's no chance he'll be moved at the trade deadline if they're remotely sniffing a playoff spot.

And if I were an NHLer/AHLer looking to play overseas, I always highlight Switzerland as where I'd want to go. Essentially the best travel schedule possible, good standard of competition, damn solid arenas and practice facilities, and phenomenal standard of living.

Every dime?

I don't know about anybody else, but after 2 amazing games to start the playoffs, the next 4 games were kind of giving me flashbacks.

He is far and away their best player though, and any team is better off paying elite talent and dealing with the loss at the bottom end of the roster, than losing elite talent and trying to win with a team full of 'pretty goods'.

 

[No Fun Shogun]

Flashbacks on what? He was a PPG in the 2016 series, he was hardly the biggest concern in 2017, and he was utterly dominant until the Caps adjusted and focused on shutting his line down and killed the Jacket's entire offense. That narrative really needs to be retired.

 

[Hawkaholic]

Every dime?

I don't know about anybody else, but after 2 amazing games to start the playoffs, the next 4 games were kind of giving me flashbacks.

than losing elite talent and trying to winds with a team full of 'pretty goo'.

Not at all, he can't do it by himself out there. Even Toews and Kane in their glory days had rough series every once in a while.

He will absolutely earn every dime, especially if he has a repeat of last year, this year.

And Vegas won the West with a team of 'pretty goods'.

 

[BK]

Every dime?

I don't know about anybody else, but after 2 amazing games to start the playoffs, the next 4 games were kind of giving me flashbacks.

He is far and away their best player though, and any team is better off paying elite talent and dealing with the loss at the bottom end of the roster, than losing elite talent and trying to win with a team full of 'pretty goods'.

This narrative is tired and wrong.

 

[JaegerDice]

Flashbacks on what? He was a PPG in the 2016 series, he was hardly the biggest concern in 2017, and he was utterly dominant until the Caps adjusted and focused on shutting his line down and killed the Jacket's entire offense. That narrative really needs to be retired.

Not at all, he can't do it by himself out there. Even Toews and Kane in their glory days had rough series every once in a while.

He will absolutely earn every dime, especially if he has a repeat of last year, this year.

And Vegas won the West with a team of 'pretty goods'.

This narrative is tired and wrong.

*shrugs*

Maybe.

There are some unpleasant trends in his underlying numbers come playoff time. Specifically his xGF% (scoring chance generation) tends to tank pretty hard, well into the low-40%s.

As far as 2016, his sh% lifted him a lot as far as point production. The next year, the sh% wasn't there and the points didn't come.

2018 was his worst performance to date as far as xGF% (41%), but he made hay early on the PP to the tune of 4 points (plus another 2 points 5v5). Which is fine, PP points count just as well as other points.... they're just not typically as sustainable as 5v5 point production, which we saw as the series progressed. 5 points in the first 2 games then.... smoke bomb. Ninja. He's gone. Not his fault, team stopped drawing PPs (whether by refs swallowing whistles or the players failing to draw them) and the opposing PK adjusted to the system and snuffed the chances they got (it's not like feeding the puck to Panarin at the dot could possibly be predictable and therefore preventable....no sir, we've never seen that).

The bigger problem is 5v5, where playoff series are won. This is mostly eye-test, so it's admittedly subjective, but when Panarin gets keyed in on, he falls back into what's comfortable. I'm sympathetic to the argument that he lacks a supporting cast to fall back on, but at some point you can't keep trying the same damn entries every shift, you can't keep posting up at the same spot and wait for the one-timer feed, without expecting the other guys (who have coaches, and video coaches, and great players, just like your team) not to adjust and cut it off. Depth helps spread the talent checking him out, but you've got to adapt to the adaptation, you can't just keep running into the same brick wall hoping the next time it falls down.

Watching the final 4 games where the Caps started squeezing him, he wasn't providing his centers with options. He was doing the same shit he did for most of the 2017 season, letting the other guy on his line (Kane here, Wennberg or PLD there) handle carrying the puck in and finding him at his happy place on the opposite circle... only his centers in CBJ aren't as good as Kane, and when the other team knows they can pressure the F1 with 2 guys, then the guy waiting at the circle needs to do something else to give the F1 more time and space and draw a ****ing defender. Which he basically never did. The Caps were happy to let Panarin hang out, stationary, at the dot while they pressured the other forwards on his line. They closed off the center, Panarin never got he pass, and his offense was suffocated. And lord knows we wasn't going to make up for it going the other way.

I like Panarin. I think he's a fantastic player, and would take him back on the Blackhawks any time if it were in any way feasible. I'm just not sure I would say he's a no-brainer 10mil+ guy. I do think he's worth 10mil+ to Columbus though, and they should pay him.


EDIT: Sorry, in case anybody isn't familiar with the xGF stat and cares to investigate, here's a resource

Shot Quality And Expected Goals: Part I | Corsica

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

Sample size yo

 

[JaegerDice]

Sample size yo

True. CBJ are in the unpleasant position of having to bet a lot of money on a small number of games that matter, in a league where the rules effectively change when the post-season starts.

By comparison, the Blackhawks got as many games out of Toews and Kane in one playoff run in 2009, and only had to pay them 6.5x5 when they were 20 and 21. Much tougher to pay a 26 year old 10+x8 based on the same number of games.

 

[piteus]

And he'll deserve every dime of it. Only question is if they trade him this offseason, as there's no chance he'll be moved at the trade deadline if they're remotely sniffing a playoff spot.

And if I were an NHLer/AHLer looking to play overseas, I always highlight Switzerland as where I'd want to go. Essentially the best travel schedule possible, good standard of competition, damn solid arenas and practice facilities, and phenomenal standard of living.

If Panarin wants $10.5mn/year + ... tell CBJ that we'll trade them a 3x Stanley Cup Champion, Selke / Conn Smythe winner, under 30 and under contract for multiple years, clutch playoff performer ... for Panarin. Heck, the Hawks will also give a late first round 2018 draft choice to sweeten the pot.

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

Darryl Sutter announces retirement from NHL coaching - Sportsnet.ca

 

[Teemu]

 

[ClydeLee]

But they did qualify TVR.