Blue Jays Discussion: The Good-bye Loup Version

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zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
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Because it was bottom 5 when the prior regime left, and is now top-5 under the current regime. A ton of replenishing has occurred, both via trades and far better drafting.

1) so an organization in "shambles" can be fixed in 2 years? what's so bad about being in "shambles", then? sure doesn't seem like being in "shambles" is much of a price to pay to build a contender.

2) you realize that top-5 system is led by almost all AA guys at the top, right?
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
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The results suggest otherwise.

good point - every team that doesn't win a world series is a clearly fatally flawed pretender, and every team that wins a world series is a flawless contender.
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
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Devon Travis at AA (23 y/o):
.298/.358/.460
8.4% BB rate, 13.6% K rate

Alas, non-prospect.

cute.

Travis: A- 135wrc+, A 160wrc+, A+ 174wrc+, AA 126wrc+
Espinal: Rk 89wrc+, A 102wrc+, A+ 131wrc+, AA 126wrc+ (51pa)
 

phillipmike

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Oct 27, 2009
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Devon Travis at AA (23 y/o):
.298/.358/.460
8.4% BB rate, 13.6% K rate

Alas, non-prospect.

A healthy Travis could and should have been a building block for this team... Was on pace for a 5.8 WAR season in 2015 and a 3.9 WAR season in 2016 - 4-5 WAR player if you add up both and divide by 2. Id gladly take Travis like numbers out of Espinal.
 
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Diamond Joe Quimby

A$AP Joffrey
Aug 14, 2010
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So? He didn't make the play. The game is played on the field, and the results are exactly what they are.

Is every losing team entitled to an asterisk? Because we both damn well know that an argument can be made for anything and everything....hey, if Bill Buckner only makes that play....

Disputing reality is more silly than accepting it.

Saying a 93-69 team, with a pythag record of 102-60, (891 Runs, 670 Runs Allowed) who was a replacement level player away from the world series was, and I quote "too one dimensional to win a WS" is not only disputing reality, its thumbing one's nose at it.
 

metafour

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Apr 6, 2008
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2) you realize that top-5 system is led by almost all AA guys at the top, right?

System rankings are almost entirely dependent on depth (ie: a deep pool of legitimate prospects), they aren't determined by a few guys at the top. Our system isn't being ranked high because of 2-4 "AA prospects" lol.
 
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phillipmike

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Oct 27, 2009
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Espinal: 3.4 warp (A+/AA/405 PA)
Travis: 4.9 warp (A+/AA/678 PA)

Worth noting that Travis had 4 seasons in the minors and this is Espinal's 3rd. So if he finishes strong in AA this season he might right on target with Travis plus there is no need to rush Espinal, could play in AAA next season.
 
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zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
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System rankings are almost entirely dependent on depth (ie: a deep pool of legitimate prospects), they aren't determined by a few guys at the top. Our system isn't being ranked high because of 2-4 "AA prospects" lol.

our system wouldn't be top-20 without AA's prospects.
 

Diamond Joe Quimby

A$AP Joffrey
Aug 14, 2010
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Worth noting that Travis had 4 seasons in the minors and this is Espinal's 3rd. So if he finishes strong in AA this season he might right on target with Travis plus there is no need to rush Espinal, could play in AAA next season.

Sure, but to be fair, Devon was superior in A-ball. Regardless, debating between the two is as silly as dismissing a prospect because he's slightly old for a level.

And agreed on movement. No need to rush anything at all with him, guys like Conine\Groshans\Otto\etc., nor with K. Smith, who's trajectory is right in line with Matt Chapman. Plenty of dudes in the 1st wave, and 2nd wave prior to needing those guys to be up. A nice, patient, tiered approach will be beneficial.
 
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TheMadHatTrick

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Nov 2, 2008
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Because it was bottom 5 when the prior regime left, and is now top-5 under the current regime. A ton of replenishing has occurred, both via trades and far better drafting.

While I agree with you to some extent, I'm not sure it's entirely fair to compare a farm system at the end of a team's competitive run to one at the beginning stages of a retool/rebuild. That's an apples to oranges comparison.

A more appropriate one would be AA's first 3 years and Shatkins. If I recall correctly we also had a top 10 or top 5 system at that juncture.
 

TheMadHatTrick

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Nov 2, 2008
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Saying a 93-69 team, with a pythag record of 102-60, (891 Runs, 670 Runs Allowed) who was a replacement level player away from the world series was, and I quote "too one dimensional to win a WS" is not only disputing reality, its thumbing one's nose at it.

It's basically the same post hoc argument Bluelines made weeks ago. It neglects the fact that in a short series anything can happen, and the best team on paper doesn't always win. The Royals were a flawed team in their own right, that caught a wave and rode a hot bullpen to victory. This has happened more than a few times in playoff history, just look at the Giants during their runs.
 
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Discoverer

Registered User
Apr 11, 2012
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Curious how long this AA vs Shapiro/Atkins debate will last. At some point we just need to let it go

giphy.gif
 

Bluelines

Python FTW!
Nov 17, 2013
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This is exactly how I saw it. And why I was not a fan of what transpired.

If anything AA not getting promoted was probably a blessing for him because the Blue Jay teams after AA have been horrid, he was able to turn those 2 sell out years into a job with LA then get the big boss job in Atlanta, if he had of stuck around his record would have been tarnished by the last 3 (2?) crappy years.
 

Eyedea

The Legend Continues
Jan 29, 2012
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The thing to note about Espinal is that he also had a 16.9 FRAA last year while primarily playing shortstop... that’s not insignificant and corresponds with how evaluators believe his athleticism plays all over the field. Travis was always seen as a bat first (non) prospect.
 
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