Speculation: The first in a Fleury of posts about how the Pens aren't in a Murray to move a goalie

[brewski420]

Soooooo friggin much can happen in the next 11 months as well.

Any starting goalie in the league can get seriously hurt or **** the bed performance wise.

TDL someone could be all over Fleury.

Fleury could ask out in December after MM goes on a 16 game win streak.

Or any combination of that.

Exactly.

 

[Whambino]

People, all the arguing in the world does not make Marc Andre Fleury 22 again.

Bottom line, he's on the wrong side of 30. With the expansion draft coming, you have to keep Murray for better or for worse. If he faulters, the search for a new goalie begins.

22 > 31 when looking at long term building. Short term building - dude backstopped the team to the Cup.

Yes but he backstopped a team that probably could have done it with an average goalie (we were that much better than everyone else). Also the arguement is not how good Fleury was at 22, but how good he is today, which is pretty damn good. And to anyone pointing to his game 6 performance this year. That's one game, the first game since being concussed, and he didnt look bad minus one goal (and Murray had several bad goals during the run too).
Problem is our team is in a "win now" mode, and a proven starting goaltender who has over a decade of experience and is arguably the best he's ever been fits the "win now" model. Its a difficult choice, but in all honesty Flower is the safer option. You know what you're getting with him.
If we trade him now, then Murray ends up falling apart next year, our dreams of repeating could vanish. At the very least, we should wait until we're about 25-35% of the way through next season before we trade a proven asset for someone that has been good through ~30 NHL games.
Not saying that I don't like Murray (love the guy, and hope he becomes everything we want him to be), but there is a good chance that he may not end up ever being as good as Fleury over the course of his career.

 

[radapex]

Yep.

I mean look at Tampa. They're moving on from a G a tier above MAF.
Reality of the cap.

Even if MM falters some this season, it will be MM's net in Pitt in the 17-18 season at the latest imo.
For better or worse, as someone posted earlier.

With Tampa and Bishop, it's less "moving on" and more "we're not going to give him the money he wants, so let's try to get an asset for him".

 

[Ragamuffin Gunner]

People, all the arguing in the world does not make Marc Andre Fleury 22 again.

Bottom line, he's on the wrong side of 30. With the expansion draft coming, you have to keep Murray for better or for worse. If he faulters, the search for a new goalie begins.

22 > 31 when looking at long term building. Short term building - dude backstopped the team to the Cup.

0 people are arguing keeping MAF over MM for the draft.

 

[WayneSid9987]

With Tampa and Bishop, it's less "moving on" and more "we're not going to give him the money he wants, so let's try to get an asset for him".

Theres still an adequate young G that will come cheaper which Tampa needs.
Pens need it too.

 

[ObsessedCreative*]

It's pretty incredible how brainwashed the "common fan" is with defending MAF after all these years. haha

 

[Whambino]

It's pretty incredible how brainwashed the "common fan" is with defending MAF after all these years. haha

Yeah, because taking an objective view at two goaltenders is being brainwaished. Take off the tinfoil hat and your #30 shades and maybe you'll see the true picture. This is not nearly as cut and dry as most people are making it out to be.

 

[Pengu]

Yes but he backstopped a team that probably could have done it with an average goalie (we were that much better than everyone else). Also the arguement is not how good Fleury was at 22, but how good he is today, which is pretty damn good. And to anyone pointing to his game 6 performance this year. That's one game, the first game since being concussed, and he didnt look bad minus one goal (and Murray had several bad goals during the run too).
Problem is our team is in a "win now" mode, and a proven starting goaltender who has over a decade of experience and is arguably the best he's ever been fits the "win now" model. Its a difficult choice, but in all honesty Flower is the safer option. You know what you're getting with him.
If we trade him now, then Murray ends up falling apart next year, our dreams of repeating could vanish. At the very least, we should wait until we're about 25-35% of the way through next season before we trade a proven asset for someone that has been good through ~30 NHL games.
Not saying that I don't like Murray (love the guy, and hope he becomes everything we want him to be), but there is a good chance that he may not end up ever being as good as Fleury over the course of his career.

What kind of nonsense is this drivel?
We know what we are getting with Fleury alright... the worst active playoff chocker there is. Can't win a playoff series to save his life since 09.
I don't believe in coincidence and since 09 Fleury is not the keeper that has made us successful in the playoffs. He is on the wrong side of 30 and I don't see any reason why he will be a stud goalie in the playoffs from now on all off a sudden.
Murray on the other hand I can see him being a stud goalie in the playoffs as his curve points in the opposite direction.
You talk about Murray as he some unknown decent keeper that made a late season run like Hammond for Ottawa. A lot of GM's seems to be interested him as he has been stellar whereever he has played. How many keepers are there that goes in his 1st nhl playoffs and perform like he did?
He is a special talent and everything we thought Fleury would be.

And then I haven't even added the 6 million cap hit vs 600 k next season or the exp. draft.

 

[ericstrat1]

First year comparables, posted in the other thread, average 2.58/0.915.

Do you consider that "playing very well"?

I'm fine with those numbers in the reg season

 

[ObsessedCreative*]

Yeah, because taking an objective view at two goaltenders is being brainwaished. Take off the tinfoil hat and your #30 shades and maybe you'll see the true picture. This is not nearly as cut and dry as most people are making it out to be.

When did I ever mention #30? :snakehead

I think its pretty easy to use stats as you pick and choose to push your view on MAF one way or another.

One of the biggest glaring things about MAF and the pens is the eye test when you compare how the team plays when he is back stopping them as opposed to people like TV or MM. The team always seems to be more skittish, on edge, and plays a very frantic game when MAF is in net.

That is usually contrasted when you saw past horrible coached Bylsma teams with VT is net as opposed to MAF. The same things this year when you saw in the Tampa series game 5 the team looked frantic, never in control, and ultimately let the game slip away on the back of MAF letting in my real stinker.

On to game 6 and MM comes back in the net and we see things executed precisely in a much more calm demeanor. Then on to game 7 and so on...

The eye test just doesn't lie when it comes to watching the teams in contrast to MAF starting and others in the net. Its day and night and usually the results are the same as well.

There are numerous times throughout MAF career he's lost his job in the playoffs, and yet in the past always got his job given back to him. I think this was and is finally the straw where owners and management see MAF is not the solution, but part of the problem.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

Sign Connolly damn it, low risk high reward, I think he could be what we hoped Beau would be.

 

[Whambino]

What kind of nonsense is this drivel?
We know what we are getting with Fleury alright... the worst active playoff chocker there is. Can't win a playoff series to save his life since 09.
I don't believe in coincidence and since 09 Fleury is not the keeper that has made us successful in the playoffs. He is on the wrong side of 30 and I don't see any reason why he will be a stud goalie in the playoffs from now on all off a sudden.
Murray on the other hand I can see him being a stud goalie in the playoffs as his curve points in the opposite direction.
You talk about Murray as he some unknown decent keeper that made a late season run like Hammond for Ottawa. A lot of GM's seems to be interested him as he has been stellar whereever he has played. How many keepers are there that goes in his 1st nhl playoffs and perform like he did?
He is a special talent and everything we thought Fleury would be.

And then I haven't even added the 6 million cap hit vs 600 k next season or the exp. draft.

First off, it's nonsense to look at the far past and not the most recent. Fleury fell apart in back to back years, yes, but has been good since then, putting the "biggest playoff choker" theory to rest. Honestly, how many times can this narrative be run when he was our best player the past two years in the playoffs while Sid and Geno regularly fell flat?
Secondly, Cam Ward is the perfect example of a goaltender who went into his first playoffs and performed just as well as Murray did. Now he's a mediocre goaltender at best, but who knows. Why bother analyzing these things when we can just go with personal preference?
And I've said I hope Murray is what we all want him to be, but I'm taking an objective view at the Penguins situation right now. It makes more sense to keep Fleury at least through a portion of next season before trading him. And hey, if next season is a bad one for Murray, which is still likely, we may not even need to worry about protecting him. And there is nothing wrong with Fleury's cap hit because he is being paid exactly what he should.

 

[nbonaddio]

Can't win a playoff series to save his life since 09.

So you blame him for scoring eight goals in five games in the 14-15 NYR series? OK. Man, what a bum.

Murray on the other hand I can see him being a stud goalie in the playoffs as his curve points in the opposite direction.

Not really. His curve, at least for the next three years, points to him being league average.

You talk about Murray as he some unknown decent keeper that made a late season run like Hammond for Ottawa. A lot of GM's seems to be interested him as he has been stellar whereever he has played. How many keepers are there that goes in his 1st nhl playoffs and perform like he did?

None, but you can look at a much larger sample size of what he did in the AHL, which is what everyone is pointing to. Again, it points to league average, with a decent chunk of those players never reaching their potential until they're on a different team altogether.

And then I haven't even added the 6 million cap hit vs 600 k next season or the exp. draft.

This is pretty much the only reasonable thing you said. Many people would take league average for $600k versus mid-tier for 10x the price. Not to mention the age difference, not to mention the expansion draft. I certainly can't blame them. Those are infinitely more sound arguments than the one you're making.

 

[PensPlz]

I'll avoid directly addressing posters since the elitist attitude of degrading others ("common fans") simply because they don't agree with your opinion is unbearable.

But Murray was good in the playoffs for us, yes. But we also had superior team and depth on the ice in every series. There are a lot of people that believe we could have won the cup, myself included, with ANY NHL goalie in the net. Fleury included in that. This does not prove to me that Murray is ready for an 82 game NHL season by any means. Now, he might be, probably is, but not a sure thing.

Playoff argument aside, Fleury is a proven work horse in the regular season. He's the best shootout goalie in the league for some time, and can still string together massive amount of wins when the team is slumping. 2 concussions and Mike Johnston and he was still tied for 4th in wins this year. Without Fleury playing like he was at the start of the season we are so far out of the playoff picture that we probably start selling, not buying. We probably don't go out and get Daley and Hagelin because the playoffs seem so unobtainable. We don't see the playoffs without him. We don't win a cup without him. To ignore that and keep blabbing about soft goals in the playoffs is ignorant.

So when you're faced with selling Fleury for peanuts and entering the season with goalie that hasn't seen the grind of an NHL season before, or whatever the alternative might be.... it's not an easy choice.

I think we need to trade Fleury as soon as we can for the right deal. If we can't make that deal right now then we need to wait. I fully expect a team to be needing a starting goalie this season, and when they do, they will pay for what MAF is actually worth and thus helping this team a lot more in the long run.

 

[nbonaddio]

When did I ever mention #30? :snakehead

I think its pretty easy to use stats as you pick and choose to push your view on MAF one way or another.

One of the biggest glaring things about MAF and the pens is the eye test when you compare how the team plays when he is back stopping them as opposed to people like TV or MM. The team always seems to be more skittish, on edge, and plays a very frantic game when MAF is in net. You could argue that your very same eye test failed the Penguins when they drafted the athletic with poor fundamentals MAF in the first place.

That is usually contrasted when you saw past horrible coached Bylsma teams with VT is net as opposed to MAF. The same things this year when you saw in the Tampa series game 5 the team looked frantic, never in control, and ultimately let the game slip away on the back of MAF letting in my real stinker.

On to game 6 and MM comes back in the net and we see things executed precisely in a much more calm demeanor. Then on to game 7 and so on...

The eye test just doesn't lie when it comes to watching the teams in contrast to MAF starting and others in the net. Its day and night and usually the results are the same as well.

There are numerous times throughout MAF career he's lost his job in the playoffs, and yet in the past always got his job given back to him. I think this was and is finally the straw where owners and management see MAF is not the solution, but part of the problem.

...what?

The eye test absolutely lies, that's why no professional organization ever uses it, because it's not 50 years ago and we have these fancy things like math and computers now.

To put it another way, the Pens aren't playing like $2mm to various alumni of Carnegie Mellon to listen to fans' yelling about what their eyes tell them.

 

[BrunoPuntzJones]

I've often contemplated changing my name to Glass Eye Test. A couple years ago it would've been Tanner Glass Eye Test.

 

[ColePens]

I'll avoid directly addressing posters since the elitist attitude of degrading others ("common fans") simply because they don't agree with your opinion is unbearable.

But Murray was good in the playoffs for us, yes. But we also had superior team and depth on the ice in every series. There are a lot of people that believe we could have won the cup, myself included, with ANY NHL goalie in the net. Fleury included in that. This does not prove to me that Murray is ready for an 82 game NHL season by any means. Now, he might be, probably is, but not a sure thing.

Playoff argument aside, Fleury is a proven work horse in the regular season. He's the best shootout goalie in the league for some time, and can still string together massive amount of wins when the team is slumping. 2 concussions and Mike Johnston and he was still tied for 4th in wins this year. Without Fleury playing like he was at the start of the season we are so far out of the playoff picture that we probably start selling, not buying. We probably don't go out and get Daley and Hagelin because the playoffs seem so unobtainable. We don't see the playoffs without him. We don't win a cup without him. To ignore that and keep blabbing about soft goals in the playoffs is ignorant.

So when you're faced with selling Fleury for peanuts and entering the season with goalie that hasn't seen the grind of an NHL season before, or whatever the alternative might be.... it's not an easy choice.

I think we need to trade Fleury as soon as we can for the right deal. If we can't make that deal right now then we need to wait. I fully expect a team to be needing a starting goalie this season, and when they do, they will pay for what MAF is actually worth and thus helping this team a lot more in the long run.

I don't understand your top part... are you saying you can't quote posters on the message board because it comes off as elitist? That's... new.

I'm sort of bored with the idea that Murray had a strong team and that's why he was so good. That's bogus. Why can't the guy just be good? We clearly played different when Zatkoff was in net and when Fleury was in net. Why can't it just be because the poise of Murray was what the team needed? I cannot believe how some moronic analysts were overrating Murray by calling him the next Ken Dryden and now we have people on the Pens board completely underrating the kid's performance. It blows my mind.

And Fleury played in front of some damn good teams, too. 2013 we were Cup favorites and he was pulled for Vokoun. In the Flyers debacle, many experts picked us to win the Cup. So I hate that argument.

You bring up valid reasoning and good points, but you also say stuff like "Playoff argument aside" and I have a problem with that. This team needs the playoff performances. That's what brings home titles. And why are the concussions brought up? Why couldn't Murray use the concussion thing as an excuse? Only #29 is allowed to do that?

 

[xxxxxxxxxxxxxx]

Basically, with an extremely small number of teams looking for a goalie of MAF's caliber, and an even smaller number being able to take on his cap-hit, JR's just gotta pull the trigger as soon as something gets lined up. The option of holding out for a big return or picking and choosing is over and done with. Especially with a better goalie in Bishop being actively shopped by Tampa.

Best-case scenario is that we find a place to trade MAF, have to take back a relatively big contract, but get a very good sweetener type pick, prospect or roster player as well.

Worst-case scenario is that we can't find a taker for MAF all season and end up having to buy him out to avoid losing Murray in the expansion draft--or JR & Co. decide $2M/yr in dead weight is simply unacceptable, so they trade Murray (for pennies on the dollar) in order to avoid having to buy MAF. Both of those are nightmare, no other choice scenarios, and I hope we don't have to even think about them.

 

[Ugene Magic]

First I want to say I'm totally on board the Murray is our future, good luck in your future endeavors Fleury, train.

That said. I firmly believe Fleury at the top of his game is better then Murray at the top of his game. I think this will change, but if Fleury had not been concussed and found his footing against the Rangers I think we would have had the same result. (a stanley cup). The thing that concerns me with Fleury was that after the game 5 vs Tampa loss, he was totally beating himself up and blaming the whole game on himself. Calling the high blocker side goal "Stupid". I think this was a unique pressure situation, Fleury knew he was rusty, he also knew that it was his only shot to remain a Pittsburgh Penguin next season. (no pressure though) Also this was one of the few games where the Penguins did not dominate the game.

Looking at Murray, he gave up 4 "Stupid" goals in the same spot over the course of the playoffs. 3 of them where markedly worse. BUT Murray comes away from almost single handedly losing game 3 (and game 5) against the Sharks and tells reporters that he had a good game, made some good saves, etc.
Thing is that sort of almost delusional self-confidence can serve a goalie really well.

Murray's glove hand is beyond bad, he got beat between his arm and body several times. Hell he gave up a bad 5 hole goal in game 6 (fleury never gives that up). BUT once again the big thing is he shrugs it off, he still believes in himself.

I do think Fleury has psychologically come a long way from the days of the islander series where by all accounts he was literally banging his head on a concrete wall and almost inconsolable.

But lets get real here, this might be the most dominant run to a stanley cup I've seen from any team in the last 8+ years. The final scores, series stats might not show it, but we utterly dominated play in almost every series, in almost every game. Caps where the only team that where close to us. The other teams really couldn't skate with us and where completely flat footed. So just saying, we can't compare Murray's run, (in which he dipped quite significantly prior to Fleury getting a start, i.e. 88% save pct in a 5 game stretch), should be eye'd with this in mind.

Fleury has stolen games for us in the playoffs, big games. Murray could be argued that he stole one against the Caps, otherwise he was outplayed by every single goalie he was up against. Fleury never in his career had a team in front of him that dominated like this.

Sorry long post, I do really think that once Murray gets his glove hand sorted out, stops leaning so far forward when he goes down (watch how upright vasiliskey is when he is down in the butterfly and moving down for comparison) that he is gonna be a wall for us. He also needs to fight to see the puck through screens better.
BUT I think that Murray's demeanor in net is huge. It's a weird dynamic but you can have a confident goalie who is playing worse actually influence the team to play better then a better goalie who starts blaming himself...
Also all the things that I listed about Murray are very fixable.

Life isn't fair, neither is pro sports. No concussions we aren't even talking about this. But they happened, buh-bye Marc Andre...

Absolutely the best post in this thread.

Explanations with sound detailed thought.

 

[Nakawick]

I much prefer easing MM into a workhorse role and having a capable veteran backing him up or splitting starts with him, whether that is MAF or Reimer or Niemi, etc is irrelevant in that regard. MM is still a rookie, still has development to do and he is as skinny as a rake. He did show signs of fatigue in the playoffs as well. I am not prepared to throw him out out for 65 games, much in the same way I wouldn't burn out a rookie starting pitcher. Let MM develop. Having someone else who can handle it, be a vet, provide depth, etc is absolutely the right thing to do.

 

[nbonaddio]

I much prefer easing MM into a workhorse role and having a capable veteran backing him up or splitting starts with him, whether that is MAF or Reimer or Niemi, etc is irrelevant in that regard. MM is still a rookie, still has development to do and he is as skinny as a rake. He did show signs of fatigue in the playoffs as well. I am not prepared to throw him out out for 65 games, much in the same way I wouldn't burn out a rookie starting pitcher. Let MM develop. Having someone else who can handle it, be a vet, provide depth, etc is absolutely the right thing to do.

I think it's likelier to see 30-35 MM, 45-50 MAF, if situations like Allen/Andersen/Schneider are the precedent.

 

[FDR]

I think it's likelier to see 30-35 MM, 45-50 MAF, if situations like Allen/Andersen/Schneider are the precedent.

That's not going to be good for anyone.

 

[Shwag33]

Absolutely the best post in this thread.

Explanations with sound detailed thought.

It's a pretty bad post.... saying things like he was clearly outplayed by every goalie minus holtby? Not true at all. I guess first rounds don't count?


Also, whens the last time fleury has played better than an opposing goaltender?

Going backwards...
No - Vasi (2016, 1 game only)
No - Lundqvist (2015)
No - Lundqvist (2014)
No - Bobrovsky (2014, brutal series from fleury everyone forgets about)
No - Nabokov (2013 LOL worthy, benched for Vokoun)
No - Bryzgalov (2012 Brutal)
No - Roloson (2011, no sid/malkin but .899%)
No - Halak (2010)
Maybe - Osgood (2009 Osgood finished .930, fleury .913 really they were probably even; he outplayed ward in the ECF)


So it's been since 2009.

 

[PensPlz]

I don't understand your top part... are you saying you can't quote posters on the message board because it comes off as elitist? That's... new.

I'm sort of bored with the idea that Murray had a strong team and that's why he was so good. That's bogus. Why can't the guy just be good? We clearly played different when Zatkoff was in net and when Fleury was in net. Why can't it just be because the poise of Murray was what the team needed? I cannot believe how some moronic analysts were overrating Murray by calling him the next Ken Dryden and now we have people on the Pens board completely underrating the kid's performance. It blows my mind.

And Fleury played in front of some damn good teams, too. 2013 we were Cup favorites and he was pulled for Vokoun. In the Flyers debacle, many experts picked us to win the Cup. So I hate that argument.

You bring up valid reasoning and good points, but you also say stuff like "Playoff argument aside" and I have a problem with that. This team needs the playoff performances. That's what brings home titles. And why are the concussions brought up? Why couldn't Murray use the concussion thing as an excuse? Only #29 is allowed to do that?

There is a difference in responding directly to someone and then responding generally. If someone is going to degrade a poster (like calling them a brainwashed common fan) instead of addressing the argument, then I rather not engage with that person. So I just responded generally. To respond directly and say what I wanted to say would probably get me an infraction here

Anyways, I'm not saying the only reason Murray was good was because he had a strong team in front of him, I'm just saying we haven't seen him in net when this team wasn't firing on all cylinders. So when I think about this coming from Rutherford's or management's standpoint, that could be cause for concern about moving the goalie that has gotten you through some rough regular season droughts for a 2nd round pick or less.

And we are talking about going into the regular season right now. The playoffs don't start on Oct 13th. We have to get through the regular season first before we can start talking about the playoffs. Can't put the cart before the horse here, which is why I'm said playoff argument aside. I said concussions and Johnston to show that Fleury has proven to overcame adversity very recently to still get us to the playoffs.

I have no doubt that Murray is the future of this team. There is a lot of time to unload MAF this year before the playoffs start, whether it's at the deadline or if there is a team out there that's desperate... while making sure Murray can play 60 games a year with all the wear and tear, humps and slumps that come with it.

I just don't see the downside of playing this safe right now. We aren't in a position where we need to make this move RIGHT NOW. If we need cap room for some depth on D... there is always Kunitz to move.


And 2013... come on. The blame starts and ends with Bylsma.

 

[Nakawick]

Lebrun says that Florida called the leafs about Bernier. They are another possible MAF destination. Luongo is 37 with a front end loaded contract and a cap hit of about 4.5mil. Good chance he retires a Coyote.