Speculation: The first in a Fleury of posts about how the Pens aren't in a Murray to move a goalie

[Pengu]

The fact is the Penguins have made the playoffs 10 season in a row and even with a mediocre keeper will make the playoffs with that core.
What we need is a playoff performer that is solid and not all over the place.
Fleury is not that goalie. He always seem to fall apart and the sample is big enough for me to say that.
I have no confidence whatsoever Fleury would have taken us to the promised land considering what had transpired these past 6 seasons.
With Murray's come home party there is no need for a 6 million solid backup.... who has to be protected instead of the main main next season.
JR just have to get it done before it will be a costly divorce for the pens as MAF will not be a penguin in 1 year.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

The next thing I want to look at it is how MAF does after a "bad game" (we'll call it SV < .900) vs. Murray. I've got no doubt that Murray is better, but I think this is also a false narrative that we're overplaying.

I posted that exact thing in that post with the breakdown of each start.

 

[ImporterExporter]

It could also be they had 2nd rounder-based offers for Fleury and Elliott and, regardless of what Pittsburgh or Fleury wanted, discussed amongst the brass who they'd rather have and they decided they'd rather have Elliott and were confident they could re-sign him (or whatever they intend to do with him). Clean, simple, no tin foil hat required.

It could have been a large number of scenarios like the above that don't include Rutherford being a stubborn old crone who all of a sudden doesn't understand market prices in the NHL, while MAF is sitting at home watching the draft with a Joel Otto jersey on.

And most of these scenario's are sensible, sane, and more along the lines of what you'd likely see given the history with Jim Rutherford as our GM. He said he's not worried and that there is time to address this very issue. And I trust him.

Even the so called disaster that was decried on this damn forum (Lovejoy for Despres) ended up not costing us a Cup and in fact Lovejoy performed very solidly for us down the stretch and playoffs so color me unimpressed with the masses here who want to squirm over JR being an old crony who should have take the first magical offer that came along for Fleury as if there was some timer attached to a bomb with the goalie situation

He's been a lot better than that as our GM, especially over the last 12 months.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

What is short-sighted, IMO, isn't the sample size, it is the use of a single stat, save %. I am not defending Fleury here, just suggesting to expand the analysis.

Save pct. is widely considered the best goalie stat for analyzing a goalie's performance. The other stats (GAA, shutouts, wins) are much more a reflection of the team in front of them.

For instance, Martin Jones arguably had a better finals series than Murray. His save pct. would show that he had a good finals series. His GAA and wins totals, however, would not, because of how much the Pens dominated the Sharks.

Honestly, at this point it seems like NO stat will ever be good enough.

 

[Peat]

It could also be they had 2nd rounder-based offers for Fleury and Elliott and, regardless of what Pittsburgh or Fleury wanted, discussed amongst the brass who they'd rather have and they decided they'd rather have Elliott and were confident they could re-sign him (or whatever they intend to do with him). Clean, simple, no tin foil hat required.

It could have been a large number of scenarios like the above that don't include Rutherford being a stubborn old crone who all of a sudden doesn't understand market prices in the NHL, while MAF is sitting at home watching the draft with a Joel Otto jersey on.

It could be a lot of things.

Based on what I've seen here, what I've seen in the media, what I know of the goaltenders involved, and what I believe to be common sense, I believe that the likeliest scenario is they wanted Fleury but moved on as Rutherford wouldn't budge.

And I also believe that one of the biggest reaches here is that if offered Fleury and Elliott at fairly similar prices - and if they extend his contract it will be - they would actually prefer Elliott. He's nothing like as proven a first choice goaltender as Fleury - he's never done a 60 game season. I doubt the difference in cap hit will be that great once extend his contract - and if they don't, why on earth do Calgary need a season rental for 35OA - and the list of goaltenders they were looking at does not indicate a team overly bothered by a cap hit in the high 5ms.

It is possible they outright preferred Elliott. I just do not believe its likely.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

Save pct. is widely considered the best goalie stat for analyzing a goalie's performance. The other stats (GAA, shutouts, wins) are much more a reflection of the team in front of them.

For instance, Martin Jones arguably had a better finals series than Murray. His save pct. would show that he had a good finals series. His GAA and wins totals, however, would not, because of how much the Pens dominated the Sharks.

Honestly, at this point it seems like NO stat will ever be good enough.

No simple single stat will ever be enough to trully analyse performance, indeed. Save % seems to be the best of the bunch, but it is still incomplete. It is not useless at all, just incomplete.

A weighted combinaison of simple (%, GAA, wins, SO) and more "complexe" stats (save % on prime scoring chances could be such a stat) would probably do the trick. I am no stat geek though, so I cannot provide a model

 

[stratosphere]

Murray is clearly over-rated. How could he not be?

He happened to be the goaltender during the most dominant Cup run by any team in recent memory. The team in front of him went from not looking like a post season participant at mid-season to winning the Stanley Cup. 60% of that was Sullivan and team speed. Another 30% was MAF playing consistently through coaching changes, injuries (to him and his team) and a lot of doubt about the team's chances in general. 10% was Murray getting lucky due to an injury to MAF and a hell of a hockey team in front of him that in all reality, made his job easy.

Good for him, but his NHL sample size is wicked small and he's got some clear technique issues to solve. I'm not seeing an all-star or a hall of famer just yet.

 

[UnderratedBrooks44]

It could be a lot of things.

Based on what I've seen here, what I've seen in the media, what I know of the goaltenders involved, and what I believe to be common sense, I believe that the likeliest scenario is they wanted Fleury but moved on as Rutherford wouldn't budge.

And I also believe that one of the biggest reaches here is that if offered Fleury and Elliott at fairly similar prices - and if they extend his contract it will be - they would actually prefer Elliott. He's nothing like as proven a first choice goaltender as Fleury - he's never done a 60 game season. I doubt the difference in cap hit will be that great once extend his contract - and if they don't, why on earth do Calgary need a season rental for 35OA - and the list of goaltenders they were looking at does not indicate a team overly bothered by a cap hit in the high 5ms.

It is possible they outright preferred Elliott. I just do not believe its likely.

Why would it be unlikely? You can read dozens of posts just from today with people citing what they feel are numerous flaws to Fleury's game and career here since '09. People can't have it both ways here as much as they like to try. Either MAF is a bit of a choke artist or he's a really good starter that most teams would love to have. Which is it everyone?

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

No simple single stat will ever be enough to trully analyse performance, indeed. Save % seems to be the best of the bunch, but it is still incomplete. It is not useless at all, just incomplete.

A weighted combinaison of simple (%, GAA, wins, SO) and more "complexe" stats (save % on prime scoring chances could be such a stat) would probably do the trick. I am no stat geek though, so I cannot provide a model

A quick look at the goals against for each guy, if you want, reveals the following:

Fleury (19 starts total):
Starts with 1 or less goals against (great) - 3
Starts with 2 goals against (good) - 6
Starts with 3 or more goals against (bad) - 10

Murray (21 starts total):
Starts with 1 or less goals against - 7
Starts with 2 goals against - 6
Starts with 3 or more goals against - 8

Fleury has more "bad" games, much less "great" games, and has similar "good" games. Which basically just re-affirms what we saw with the save percentage comparison.

And if you want the stats after having a "bad" game:

Fleury:
Starts with 1 or less goals against after bad game - 2
Starts with 2 goals against after a bad game - 2
Starts with 3 goals or more after a bad game - 5

Murray:
Starts with 1 goal or less after a bad game - 3
Starts with 2 goals after a bad game - 2
Starts with 3 goals or more after a bad game - 3

So again, Murray's more likely to bounce back with a good or great game after having a bad game. Fleury's more likely to have another bad game following a bad game.

(Minor note: Murray struggled (goals against-wise) for 3 straight games against the Caps. That one 3-game stretch accounts for 2 of Murray's total 3 "bad" games after a bad game.)

Wins are obviously in Murray's favor, considering his record was 15-6 during his 21 starts, while Fleury's was 8-11 during his 19 starts.

The only area Fleury has the edge is shutouts, at a 2-1 edge.

So again, you don't even need to do a weighted average. The four "basic" stats you asked about are listed above. Three of them (the most important ones) favor Murray, and quite heavily. Only shutouts favors Fleury.

Someone with a lot more understanding of advanced mathematics can do the "advanced" stats comparison, if they wish.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

A quick look at the goals against for each guy, if you want, reveals the following:

Fleury (19 starts total):
Starts with 1 or less goals against (great) - 3
Starts with 2 goals against (good) - 6
Starts with 3 or more goals against (bad) - 10

Murray (21 starts total):
Starts with 1 or less goals against - 7
Starts with 2 goals against - 6
Starts with 3 or more goals against - 8

Fleury has more "bad" games, much less "great" games, and has similar "good" games. Which basically just re-affirms what we saw with the save percentage comparison.

And if you want the stats after having a "bad" game:

Fleury:
Starts with 1 or less goals against after bad game - 2
Starts with 2 goals against after a bad game - 2
Starts with 3 goals or more after a bad game - 5

Murray:
Starts with 1 goal or less after a bad game - 3
Starts with 2 goals after a bad game - 2
Starts with 3 goals or more after a bad game - 3

So again, Murray's more likely to bounce back with a good or great game after having a bad game. Fleury's more likely to have another bad game following a bad game.

(Minor note: Murray struggled (goals against-wise) for 3 straight games against the Caps. That one 3-game stretch accounts for 2 of Murray's total 3 "bad" games after a bad game.)

Wins are obviously in Murray's favor, considering his record was 15-6 during his 21 starts, while Fleury's was 8-11 during his 19 starts.

The only area Fleury has the edge is shutouts, at a 2-1 edge.

So again, you don't even need to do a weighted average. The four "basic" stats you asked about are listed above. Three of them (the most important ones) favor Murray, and quite heavily. Only shutouts favors Fleury.

Someone with a lot more understanding of advanced mathematics can do the "advanced" stats comparison, if they wish.

First, thank you for providing the numbers. As for the bolded, I agree, let's leave it to the experts

 

[ericstrat1]

Can't we just buy him out in the next few days...I don't think I can take deluded fans plus media pushing for MAF to be the starter all year.

 

[Pengu]

No way, I expect JR to get us out of this one.

 

[WayneSid9987]

Can't we just buy him out in the next few days...I don't think I can take deluded fans plus media pushing for MAF to be the starter all year.

Let's run a hypothetical on that:

-6yrs 1.9M dollar cap hit on the buyout
-his replacement probably costs 1-1.5M.
-sign Schultz to 2.5M max.
-that leaves 2.792M-3.292M in cap space.

I would actually do it. Heh.
Everyones so scared of the measley 1.9 hit. It'll mean nothing in a few yrs, imo.
I'd rather have Schultz on the d-depth than MAF's boat anchor contract for this next Cup run.

 

[Peat]

Why would it be unlikely? You can read dozens of posts just from today with people citing what they feel are numerous flaws to Fleury's game and career here since '09. People can't have it both ways here as much as they like to try. Either MAF is a bit of a choke artist or he's a really good starter that most teams would love to have. Which is it everyone?

If you're looking for logical consistency between all the people who think Fleury should be gone already, you won't find it, the same as I won't find logical consistency among all the people who are okay with the situation. A group of people will all have different opinions on why their belief in common is right. Just the way of it.

For what its worth, my opinion would be that Fleury is an above average goalie who appears to have fixed his play-off woes in recent years. Some will agree, some will disagree.

 

[nbonaddio]

Can't we just buy him out in the next few days...I don't think I can take deluded fans plus media pushing for MAF to be the starter all year.

Why would the fans be deluded? What are your personal expectations for what Murray will do?

 

[ericstrat1]

Why would the fans be deluded? What are your personal expectations for what Murray will do?

Because they favor a goalie with a multi-year history of playoff meltdowns who is 10 years older and costs 10 times as much as the guy that just won us the Stanley Cup?

 

[nbonaddio]

Because they favor a goalie with a multi-year history of playoff meltdowns who is 10 years older and costs 10 times as much as the guy that just won us the Stanley Cup?

Or they could prefer the goalie who has 50x the experience.

I'm more interested in the second question though. What are your expectations for Murray this year?

 

[Whambino]

Because they favor a goalie with a multi-year history of playoff meltdowns who is 10 years older and costs 10 times as much as the guy that just won us the Stanley Cup?

MAF also has a history of good playoff performances. He was steller in 2009 and was arguably our best player the two runs prior to this one. He also just had one of his best seasons, is entering what should be the best years of his career, and is a proven quality starting goaltender.

It's very reasonable that we don't move him now, and it may even be preferable to keep him going forward based off of how Murray plays this next year. Yes he was dominant in the AHL and was a piece in winning us the cup, but he may not end up ever being as good as Fleury is now. Thing is, every player in the league knows who this guy is now, and everyone knows his weaknesses. Next season (if we still have both then) will be a huge factor on what we do.

 

[SEALBound]

People, all the arguing in the world does not make Marc Andre Fleury 22 again.

Bottom line, he's on the wrong side of 30. With the expansion draft coming, you have to keep Murray for better or for worse. If he faulters, the search for a new goalie begins.

22 > 31 when looking at long term building. Short term building - dude backstopped the team to the Cup.

 

[ericstrat1]

Or they could prefer the goalie who has 50x the experience.

I'm more interested in the second question though. What are your expectations for Murray this year?

I expect Murray will play very well if he stays healthy.

 

[brewski420]

People, all the arguing in the world does not make Marc Andre Fleury 22 again.

Bottom line, he's on the wrong side of 30. With the expansion draft coming, you have to keep Murray for better or for worse. If he faulters, the search for a new goalie begins.

22 > 31 when looking at long term building. Short term building - dude backstopped the team to the Cup.

Was just going to post something similar. I don't care about stats as it pertains to MAF because the eye test tells me that MM is by far the better option with the biggest reason being age. Whether or not JR blew it with Calgary or MAF balked or the Flames decided to go with Elliott assuming trade terms being equal doesn't matter much to me. Going forward MAF is going to have to be dealt with. I am not panicking... yet. Around eleven months from now different story.

 

[nbonaddio]

I expect Murray will play very well if he stays healthy.

First year comparables, posted in the other thread, average 2.58/0.915.

Do you consider that "playing very well"?

 

[WayneSid9987]

People, all the arguing in the world does not make Marc Andre Fleury 22 again.

Bottom line, he's on the wrong side of 30. With the expansion draft coming, you have to keep Murray for better or for worse. If he faulters, the search for a new goalie begins.

22 > 31 when looking at long term building. Short term building - dude backstopped the team to the Cup.

Yep.

I mean look at Tampa. They're moving on from a G a tier above MAF.
Reality of the cap.

Even if MM falters some this season, it will be MM's net in Pitt in the 17-18 season at the latest imo.
For better or worse, as someone posted earlier.

 

[SEALBound]

Was just going to post something similar. I don't care about stats as it pertains to MAF because the eye test tells me that MM is by far the better option with the biggest reason being age. Whether or not JR blew it with Calgary or MAF balked or the Flames decided to go with Elliott assuming trade terms being equal doesn't matter much to me. Going forward MAF is going to have to be dealt with. I am not panicking... yet. Around eleven months from now different story.

Soooooo friggin much can happen in the next 11 months as well.

Any starting goalie in the league can get seriously hurt or **** the bed performance wise.

TDL someone could be all over Fleury.

Fleury could ask out in December after MM goes on a 16 game win streak.

Or any combination of that.

 

[nbonaddio]

Yep.

I mean look at Tampa. They're moving on from a G a tier above MAF.
Reality of the cap.

Even if MM falters some this season, it will be MM's net in Pitt in the 17-18 season at the latest imo.
For better or worse, as someone posted earlier.

This is generally the path that we've seen, at least recently. Worked out in some cases (Mrazak, Allen), and not so much in others (Lehner, Bernier, Andersen). Let's hope we're on the right side of it.