The Jarmo Thread

[cslebn]

How many successful 1st round picks (outside the top 8) has Pittsburgh had, since Columbus joined the NHL?

Because data is fun, I looked at 200+ GP:
2018 - no first
2017 - no first
2016 - no first
2015 - no first (Sprong, Simon)
2014 - Kasperi Kapanen is looking pretty good (trade) - 22OVA
2013 - no first (Jarry, Guentzel)
2012 - Olli Maatta - 22OVA (also Pouliot, Sundqvist, Murray)
2011 - Morrow (160gp) - 20 OVA
2010 - Beau Bennett (200gp) - 20OVA (also Rust, Kuhnhackl)
2009 - Simon Despres (193gp) - 30OVA

Prior to that Armstrong (21) and Orpik (18). 2002 through 2006 were all top 5.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Though the fact is that the Jackets have not had one single successful 1st round draft pick outside the top 8 overall in franchise history. Even of those top 8 picks less than a half have succeeded.

Successful picks (stars or solid players):
Rusty Klesla (top 8)
Rick Nash (top 8)
Jake Voracek (top 8)
Derick Brassard (top 8)
Ryan Johansen (top 8)
Ryan Murray (top 8)
Alex Wennberg (not)

Meh (role players):
John Moore (not)
Marko Dano (not)
Nik Zherdev (top 8)
Pascal Leclaire (top 8)

Busts:
Alex Picard (top 8)
Kerby Rychel (not)
Gilbert Brule (top 8)
Nikita Filatov (top 8)


TBD:
PLD (looking like success) (top 8)
Werenski (looking like success) (top 8)
Foudy (not)
Milano (looking like bust) (not)
Carlsson (looking like bust) (not)

Seems fairly normal to me.

 

[Albatros]

I get that you like Wennberg, but he's not a particularly good first rounder.

 

[Albatros]

How many successful 1st round picks (outside the top 8) has Pittsburgh had, since Columbus joined the NHL?

Kapanen and Määttä were good picks for 22nd overall, Brooks Orpik fine 18th. Even so not drafting 1st round (except Kapanen) the last 6 years was the right choice and in part enabled their cup success.

 

[majormajor]

Successful picks (stars or solid players):
Rusty Klesla (top 8)
Rick Nash (top 8)
Jake Voracek (top 8)
Derick Brassard (top 8)
Ryan Johansen (top 8)
Ryan Murray (top 8)
Alex Wennberg (not)

Meh (role players):
John Moore (not)
Marko Dano (not)
Nik Zherdev (top 8)
Pascal Leclaire (top 8)

Busts:
Alex Picard (top 8)
Kerby Rychel (not)
Gilbert Brule (top 8)
Nikita Filatov (top 8)


TBD:
PLD (looking like success) (top 8)
Werenski (looking like success) (top 8)
Foudy (not)
Milano (looking like bust) (not)
Carlsson (looking like bust) (not)

Seems fairly normal to me.

I'd say the three top 8 busts are pretty bad, I doubt that's an average proportion. But they're also from so many years ago that I don't care (2004-2008). Why should any of that matter to Jackets fans of today? People go to therapists to unload that kind of mental baggage. Every player, coach, GM, President, scout, etc.. has turned over. As I've said before, that history might as well be the history of the Hartford Whalers, because it has little relevance to the Jackets of today.

 

[majormajor]

I get that you like Wennberg, but he's not a particularly good first rounder.

I don't think he likes Wennberg.

Wennberg was a particularly good first rounder in the 2013 draft - not a single player drafted after him is even close in career points*. You'd probably be more disappointed if Jarmo had picked someone else.

*It looks like Guentzel will pass him in a year or two.

Kapanen and Määttä were good picks for 22nd overall, Brooks Orpik fine 18th. Even so not drafting 1st round (except Kapanen) the last 6 years was the right choice and in part enabled their cup success.

Maatta wouldn't even be a top 6 D in Columbus. I don't think you'd be praising the Jackets drafting if those were the guys we ended up with.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

I get that you like Wennberg, but he's not a particularly good first rounder.

1. Username has nothing to do with my thoughts on Wennberg.

2. He's at the very least a solid bottom 6 player who is elite at penalty killing and has great defensive IQ. You'll take that with a top 15 pick all day, even if its not sexy.

 

[Albatros]

In my opinion it's better to trade picks if there's no clear target worth its value, a serviceable 4C like Wennberg is not the piece that will help any organization take the next step. A Duchene or a Panarin for the playoffs has a whole different level of impact.

 

[CBJx614]

In my opinion it's better to trade picks if there's no clear target worth its value, a serviceable 4C like Wennberg is not the piece that will help any organization take the next step. A Duchene or a Panarin for the playoffs has a whole different level of impact.

Having someone who can eat up defensive minutes on the 3rd or 4th is pretty valuable in the grind of the playoffs. Depth is crucial for long runs.

 

[Albatros]

Sure, but that's useless if you don't have the 1st and 2nd guys able to take you that far. What Pittsburgh did with the one guy they did draft 1st round together with additional picks was trade him for Kessel, which proved to be a hugely successful move for them.

 

[Jackets16]

Because data is fun, I looked at 200+ GP:
2018 - no first
2017 - no first
2016 - no first
2015 - no first (Sprong, Simon)
2014 - Kasperi Kapanen is looking pretty good (trade) - 22OVA
2013 - no first (Jarry, Guentzel)
2012 - Olli Maatta - 22OVA (also Pouliot, Sundqvist, Murray)
2011 - Morrow (160gp) - 20 OVA
2010 - Beau Bennett (200gp) - 20OVA (also Rust, Kuhnhackl)
2009 - Simon Despres (193gp) - 30OVA

Prior to that Armstrong (21) and Orpik (18). 2002 through 2006 were all top 5.

Thank you. I don't see anything that is much better than what we have done.

 

[cslebn]

Thank you. I don't see anything that is much better than what we have done.

I think they've done better in the late first but we've compensated for that with better late round picking.

 

[Crede777]

Having someone who can eat up defensive minutes on the 3rd or 4th is pretty valuable in the grind of the playoffs. Depth is crucial for long runs.

Yeah but you can get guys like that pretty easily elsewhere outside of the draft.

 

[CBJx614]

Yeah but you can get guys like that pretty easily elsewhere outside of the draft.

But why go get that when you already have it on the roster? Unless you're trying to shed cap(which we don't need to do) and those guys don't usually have the same upside that Wennberg brings.

He's looking very much like his rookie self, no confidence, no urgency, no aggressiveness. Which is worrisome. But he's still an solid NHL player(at least defensively) who can still turn it around. Although that window is shrinking fairly quickly.

 

[GoJackets1]

To be honest, I don’t think it really matters if a late 1st busts as long as you get a player of similar perceived quality in later rounds. Late 1sts are really not that different from second round picks or early 3rd round picks. With that in mind, there’s only one draft that Jarmo did not do well in, which is 2014. Milano will likely never be a player for us, and the only other guy with NHL potential is Elvis. If we get an NHL starting goalie out of him though, I’ll call that draft a success. Other than that, there’s this track record

2013:
-Wennberg (NHL player)
-Rychel (non-NHL player)
-Dano (non-NHL player, might still need a chance
-Heatherington (looks like he might make it for the Stars eventually)
-Bjork (NHL player of late 1st quality)
Non-NHL players after that

In this draft, he took 2 surefire NHL players, and 2 more who will probably carve out an NHL career

2014:
-Milano (tweener, probable NHL player someday)
-Collins (non-NHL player)
-Elvis (probable NHL player, perhaps of late 1st round quality)
Non-NHL players after that

Overall, Jarmo’s worst draft without question.

2015:
-Z (Star defenseman)
-Carlsson (tweener, probably NHL someday)
-Bittner (probably non-NHL, but outside chance at bottom 6 role)
-Stenlund (soon to be NHL player)
-Kolesar (gone)
-Gavrikov (soon to be NHL player, by many indications, of late 1st quality)
-Nuti (NHL player, of late 1st quality)

In this draft, Jarmo netted an entire defensive core including a star defenseman, a known top 4 guy, another probable top 4 shutdown guy, and a probable 3rd pairing D in Carlsson. Along with an entire defensive core, he drafted a probable 3rd line center in Stenlund. This is an incredible haul for a single draft.

2016:
-PLD (star center)
-Peeke (probable NHL defenseman)
-Abramov (boom or bust)

Out of 5 picks, Jarmo netted a star center in the top 3, but picked much against the consensus, which makes PLD a very successful pick. Peeke looks to be an NHL player, and Abramov will probably crack the NHL at some point. So overall, 3 NHL players in 5 picks. Can’t argue with a 60% success rate.

2017:

Might be too early to judge this draft, but as far as I can tell, Tex, Tarasov, Bemstrom, and Davidsson will all be NHL players. So 4 NHL players in 7 picks, all without a 1st rounder. This is likely a very successful draft.

I won’t get into 2018. But overall, looking at this track record, I have no idea how anyone could be disappointed/frustrated with Jarmo’s draft record. By my count, he’s drafted 18 players (not counting 2018) who will at least make the NHL cut at some point, out of 36 picks. I’m not going to look at other teams right now, but I’d be shocked if many other teams have a 50% rate of finding NHL players since 2013. He’s probably a top 5 drafting GM.

 

[majormajor]

To be honest, I don’t think it really matters if a late 1st busts as long as you get a player of similar perceived quality in later rounds. Late 1sts are really not that different from second round picks or early 3rd round picks. With that in mind, there’s only one draft that Jarmo did not do well in, which is 2014. Milano will likely never be a player for us, and the only other guy with NHL potential is Elvis. If we get an NHL starting goalie out of him though, I’ll call that draft a success. Other than that, there’s this track record

2013:
-Wennberg (NHL player)
-Rychel (non-NHL player)
-Dano (non-NHL player, might still need a chance
-Heatherington (looks like he might make it for the Stars eventually)
-Bjork (NHL player of late 1st quality)
Non-NHL players after that

In this draft, he took 2 surefire NHL players, and 2 more who will probably carve out an NHL career

2014:
-Milano (tweener, probable NHL player someday)
-Collins (non-NHL player)
-Elvis (probable NHL player, perhaps of late 1st round quality)
Non-NHL players after that

Overall, Jarmo’s worst draft without question.

2015:
-Z (Star defenseman)
-Carlsson (tweener, probably NHL someday)
-Bittner (probably non-NHL, but outside chance at bottom 6 role)
-Stenlund (soon to be NHL player)
-Kolesar (gone)
-Gavrikov (soon to be NHL player, by many indications, of late 1st quality)
-Nuti (NHL player, of late 1st quality)

In this draft, Jarmo netted an entire defensive core including a star defenseman, a known top 4 guy, another probable top 4 shutdown guy, and a probable 3rd pairing D in Carlsson. Along with an entire defensive core, he drafted a probable 3rd line center in Stenlund. This is an incredible haul for a single draft.

2016:
-PLD (star center)
-Peeke (probable NHL defenseman)
-Abramov (boom or bust)

Out of 5 picks, Jarmo netted a star center in the top 3, but picked much against the consensus, which makes PLD a very successful pick. Peeke looks to be an NHL player, and Abramov will probably crack the NHL at some point. So overall, 3 NHL players in 5 picks. Can’t argue with a 60% success rate.

2017:

Might be too early to judge this draft, but as far as I can tell, Tex, Tarasov, Bemstrom, and Davidsson will all be NHL players. So 4 NHL players in 7 picks, all without a 1st rounder. This is likely a very successful draft.

I won’t get into 2018. But overall, looking at this track record, I have no idea how anyone could be disappointed/frustrated with Jarmo’s draft record. By my count, he’s drafted 18 players (not counting 2018) who will at least make the NHL cut at some point, out of 36 picks. I’m not going to look at other teams right now, but I’d be shocked if many other teams have a 50% rate of finding NHL players since 2013. He’s probably a top 5 drafting GM.

I agree, just offering a couple minor notes:

- Kolesar was drafted in the 3rd round and then traded for the 2nd rounder in 2017 (Texier), adding to Jarmo's 2015 successes.
- Rychel and Dano were traded for NHLers, which is something.

 

[99 CBJ]

In that 2013 draft weren't the 3 first round draft picks inherited from Howson and Jarmo used holdover scouts from the team to make those picks? So if he did not get his scouts in place until 2014 you can't really count 2013 because he was only here half the year and trusted in the scouts that were already here, if I remember correctly.

 

[majormajor]

In that 2013 draft weren't the 3 first round draft picks inherited from Howson and Jarmo used holdover scouts from the team to make those picks? So if he did not get his scouts in place until 2014 you can't really count 2013 because he was only here half the year and trusted in the scouts that were already here, if I remember correctly.

I can't find out for sure but it looks like the old scouts were kept on until draft weekend was over, and then Siren and Boumeddiene were brought on board. Either way I feel comfortable evaluating Jarmo on the picks he made, he's ultimately in charge and has a scouting background, it's on him to make the correct decision. In any case, 2013 was a bad draft, they did well with the meager talent left on the board.

 

[Saklander]

How about now?

 

[pled]

FIRE EVERYONE

 

[Saklander]

 

[Nanabijou]

This front office inherited a playoff team that could get to the first round but unlikely to go much further, and six years later this team still has not advanced past the first round. The scouting staff was doubled. An extra assistant GM was added. All sorts of changes were made.

For four consecutive years this team has gone into the season regarded as a contender, and they have not made it past round one a single time.

This front office has been on the job almost as long as Doug MacLean was, and they have not elevated this team beyond where it was when they first started. Sure, talk about "credibility" and "professionalism" and "image" all you want, but the simple fact is that there are thirty-one teams in the NHL and thirty of them (including a first-year expansion team one year ago) have actually won a playoff series. This one has not.

Until this team actually rises up and makes noise in the playoffs, the front office will continue to take criticism that is 100% justified. Or, they'll continue to get a free pass while all the criticism is aimed behind the bench because somehow it always seems to be someone else's fault.

When this front office started, it was a playoff team backed by a 24-year-old Vezina-winning goalie and going into a loaded draft with three 1st-round picks. There is a very good possibility that this team will miss the playoffs completely, finish behind a middling Hurricanes team run by Don ****ing Waddell, lose four prime free agents for absolutely nothing, and have only a 3rd-rounder and a 7th-rounder to try to draft with.

Oh well.

Another bonus from tonight. We won't have to read more posts like this for awhile (I hope).

 

[HerculePoirot]

FIRE THIS MAN HIS BALLS ARE TOO LARGE.

 

[EspenK]

Another bonus from tonight. We won't have to read more posts like this for awhile (I hope).

Let me tell you a story...once upon a time there was this team called the Amazin' Mets. They sucked. In 1969 they somehow made the World Series and defeated the Baltimore Orioles who had a great pitching staff.

 

[MAHJ71]

Feels appropriate