The Fall of Nail Yakupov

Fig

Absolute Horse Shirt
Dec 15, 2014
12,957
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He worked incredibly hard.

He had a LOT of problems as a player, and a lot of reasons why he succeeded in Junior, and a gamut of reasons why he failed in the NHL.

Rundown of his tools:

- In JR he could plow through the opposition with superior strength. He was stronger than 17-18 year olds, He was NEVER stronger than NHL men.
- He was faster than 17-18 year old kids. He was never going to be able to burn past NHL defenders on the outside.
- He didn't need to use his linemates in Junior. Galchenyuk was the perfect compliment to him in Junior. Neither were going to be stars in the NHL. They both have too many holes.

Kruegar Era:
Played PP Taylor Hall, and on the PP with Eberle Hall and Nuge. Otherwise played on a line with Sam Gagner.
He just had to be a trigger man, and never really had to carry the puck. Worked to his strengths, and had the best season of his career as a rookie. Lead the team in goals (A team that had Hall, Eberle, Nuge).

Eakins era:
Required to be the defensive anchor on the line with a rotation of players who weren't really NHLers then, and most were out of the league shortly after. Eric Belanger, Korpikoski, Arcobello, Paajaarvi, Hamilton, Pouliot, Letestu.

This was all compounded with a horrifying "Swarm" defense that made absolutely zero sense to the players or fans. Questionable benchings for no reason:

Nelson Era

Derek Roy was brought in. He used Yakupov to his strengths. Just being a guided missile with tunnel vision.
He could get to areas he needed to get to quickly, and could fire the puck. Great communication with the veteran.
Nelson gave Yakupov a modicum of trust, and that did wonders for his confidence and game.

Unfortunately the end of the season was the end of both Roy and Nelsons tenure with the Oilers.

This article really highlights the difference between Eakins and Nelson, and the importance of his chemistry with Roy:
Eakins: 'Roy has paid huge dividends for Yakupov' - Sportsnet.ca

TMac Era:
Hall McDavid was tried at first, but they really sucked together. Both wanted to carry the puck, and neither really found any real chemistry throughout the pre-season. Hall-Nuge were reunited but Eberle was injured.

So Yak ended up flanking McDavid.
Yakupov never carried the puck (his weakness), and always fed McDavid the puck, and zipped up ice.
They were actually great together. Yak leaned on McDavid, and just had to get open to rifle the puck.

Yakupov went PPG.



Oilers' McDavid-Pouliot-Yakupov trio turning into one of NHL's best lines - TheHockeyNews

When McDavid and Yak both got injured, they never played a second together ever again.
TMac always envisioned Eberle as the perfect partner to McDavid, and that was the end of that.

Whenever Yak played with superior offensive players, he seemed to elevate his game, and the numbers seemed to show that. Unfortunately most coaches felt whatever he brought to those top lines didn't seem to cover what the line lost.


Even on the HFOil Board the argument always went like this:
It's been 5 years. We KNOW what Yakupov is now. He is not a line driver or a puck carrier. He can be a decent compliment to a player like McDavid.

NO! HE WAS DRAFTED 1ST OVERALL! HE NEEDS TO BE ABLE TO CARRY A LINE!!!

Well, now we know he can't. Let him be a complimentary player to McDavid.

NO!!! HE HAS TO BE ABLE TO CARRY A LINE! FIRST OVERALL PICK!! HE WAS FIRST OVERALL!!!!! ARRRGHGHGHGHGHGHGHGHGHGHGHGHGH


Not that I'm trying to rain insults against the Oilers or piling on, but Yakupov was badly, badly managed. He wasn't developed correctly (the later on lack of translation and communication on Pulujarvi for like a year was maddening as it seemingly showed to me that the Oilers has not learned and were risking derailing another high promise prospect) and every time it seemed like he started to click, they ripped the rug out from underneath him. I feel like the kid was definitely confused and felt he was treated unfairly.

Your comments about Derek Roy are on point IMO and one of the biggest examples of the organization's failures on Yakupov. It is the same piece of evidence I was using years ago in stating that Yakupov likely was serviceable and work looking into. We're talking about Roy who wasn't in the league a year later making Yakupov look highly serviceable. I wanted the Flames to nab Yakupov and get a guy like Stajan to do the same as Roy with Yakupov (much to my own fan base's ridicule), but I could see that there was a serious problems in Yakupov's deployment and seemingly communication on what they wanted from him.

In Aesop's fable, there's a story about a cat and a fox. The fox brags about the different ways he can avoid the dogs to the cats single method. Dogs arrive and the cat avoids the dogs, but the fox cannot decide which of the many methods to use. Ultimately the fox's indecision causes it to be captured and killed by the dogs.

I felt this was kinda the case with Yakupov. Although everyone ridicules him for not being elite in any specific manner and a bit undersized, I always felt that he was at least some sort of jack of all trades kind of player and should have been at least a solid middle 6 occasional top line player. When a guy like CMD or Roy sat him down and told him to focus on specific things, he was serviceable and effective. When given no instructions he'd do a ton of everything and fail because he couldn't use his teammate effectively and IMO his teammates weren't too sure how to predictably use him and possibly would decide not to use him at all.

I've always felt that Yakupov's failure distilled into a single concept, communication. I agree Yakupov seemed to work hard, but he often seemed to work hard in the wrong ways. But we also saw glimpses of nobodies and talents bringing out his talent and in those situations, it was always credited to communication and discussion with him. I seem to recall there was an Galchenyuk article that kinda scolded Yakupov for not learning English and instead approaching him constantly and asking questions in Russian. For that reason, I feel that was the reason why he failed. It was also quite odd to see several seasons later something similar happen to Pulujarvi. The articles that mentioned that a translator was brought in (but not right away) is kinda mind boggling. Why Yakupov and Pulujarvi and the Oilers took so long to figure out that something as simple as talking was straining the relationship is kinda strange.
 

ottomaddox

Registered User
Oct 31, 2017
10,592
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Toronto
no context for the video would be better than this blatantly misleading context. It wasn’t a nothing goal.

Flash back to the end of the 2012 season, and a bad Oiler team is getting absolutely screwed against the Kings by some of the worst officiating ever seen. After the game, coach Tom Renney calls out the officiating saying “maybe they need Hollywood in the playoffs?”. He gets fined $10,000, while the Kings go on to sneak in as the 8 seed, and win their first ever Stanley Cup. The Oilers meanwhile finish near the bottom of the standings but move up in the lottery to #1. They land Nail Yakupov.

Jump forward to the 2013 season, and the Oilers are actually looking pretty good to start the season under new coach Ralph Krueger, and are looking to make the playoffs for the first time since nearly winning the cup in 06. With a minute left against the Kings, the Oilers tie the game up 1-1. But thanks to more brilliant officiating, the refs call the goal back saying Gagner interfered with Quick, completely ignoring that Gagner got blatantly pushed into Quick by Scuderi. There’s a 5 minute continuous chant of bullshit, and in a rare display, the fans rained garbage on the refs. Play resumes, and with just a few seconds left, the Oilers tie the game again. This time scored by a rookie Yakupov, in the biggest moment of his career to date. So ya, he got fired up over that goal, and it absolutely had the emotion of a game 7. The celebration wasn’t over the top for anyone that was paying attention

Yes. I have heard the emotional game excuse before.

I have played in different sports. Many many emotional games. I don't know. I didn't need to run around and act like a jack ass when I scored a goal. Some fans love big goal celebrations (bat flip, etc.), and others don't.
 

therealkoho

Him/Leaf/fan
Jul 10, 2009
17,011
8,202
the Prior
The interesting part is the total miss by scouting. Was there any team that wouldn't have picked him in the top 5 if they had the pick? Shouldn't it be obvious if he was dumb as a box of rocks or his OHL game wouldn't translate?

Burke said from the get go that Rielly was his guy and 1st overall on most Leafs scout's lists

so to answer your question, no!
 

SnizzNasty88

Registered User
Mar 31, 2013
1,455
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Toronto
I’m glad this guy ended up being one of the biggest busts if not the biggest in NHL history. Absolutely loathed this guy from the second I looked at him and saw him play. A disgustingly bad and arrogant player who couldn’t spell the words discipline or team if you asked him to. And then he says Russia is better than Canada? :laugh::laugh::laugh: Buddy you’re the worst player to ever go first overall you shouldn’t even be talking. Those are my thoughts on that absolute piece of garbage.
 
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TheWhiskeyThief

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Dec 24, 2017
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What elements does your model incorporate

Scoring adjusted for league (using NNHLe), draft year height & weight ratio. Even most D during their draft year score. Players who are too skinny(or too heavy) for their height get discounted. Yakupov had a pro weight his draft year, something that doesn’t help up a level.

Generational players are in the 30s, all stars in the 20s, 1st liners in the upper teens, 2nd liners in the low teens, 3rd liners 6-10, 4th liners 1-5, replacement level -1 to zero.

Yakupov was a 7.86
 

jc17

Registered User
Jun 14, 2013
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Scoring adjusted for league (using NNHLe), draft year height & weight ratio. Even most D during their draft year score. Players who are too skinny(or too heavy) for their height get discounted. Yakupov had a pro weight his draft year, something that doesn’t help up a level.

Generational players are in the 30s, all stars in the 20s, 1st liners in the upper teens, 2nd liners in the low teens, 3rd liners 6-10, 4th liners 1-5, replacement level -1 to zero.

Yakupov was a 7.86
So lighter is better with the assumption they gain?
 

AvroArrow

The way she goes
Jun 10, 2011
17,858
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Extremely poor development, loss of confidence and instability. I truly believe he could've been a great player in this league, but the Oilers management at that time was probably the worst i have ever seen in professional sports. RNH never got close to his ceiling either, i feel like it has so much to do with the coaching/organization he was thrown into.
 

TheWhiskeyThief

Registered User
Dec 24, 2017
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So lighter is better with the assumption they gain?
My rule of thumb is that in cm/kg, the height-weight should be around 100 for your draft year, the average NHL player has a number of 95.

1-2 kilos off either way isn’t a big deal, but when you get 5kg over/under you start getting into endomorph/ectomorph territory and putting weight on/keeping it off becomes problematic. Next pass in the model I’ll start adjusting for birthdate for a March 15 center point. The closer to September 16, the more weight I can add on, September 14 I can take off. Even then I wouldn’t go +\-5kg.

Yakupov was 179-85.7 , so a 93.3 That’s not good.
 

Lacaar

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Jan 25, 2012
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Edmonton
Edmonton screws up a lot of prospects and I'm the first to call them out for it. But I feel Nail was doomed to fail no matter what team drafted him.

There was no way he'd have accepted going to the minors and would have bolted to Russia.. And no one will ever convince me he'd have developed into a solid player there.

Had the work ethic and talent. But he didn't have the mindset or determination to understand the team aspect of the game.
 

theVladiator

Registered User
May 26, 2018
1,090
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This thread made me look up Russian speaking Sarnia alumni of that time, and I am now wondering if the three disappointments that came from that organization - Yakupov, Alex Galchenyuk, and Goldobin - are just a coincidence. All of them show signs of "go at it alone" and coachability issues. Another talented example from that time frame is Tony DeAngelo, who I think fell in the draft due to undisciplined approach to the game. On the bright side, DeAngelo seems to be finally making it.
 

Fourier

Registered User
Dec 29, 2006
25,445
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Waterloo Ontario
His rookie season was overrated. He wasn't good in training camp and didn't deserve to make the team. He was pretty bad most of his rookie season except the last 11 games where he put up 11 goals while the Oilers season collapsed, the rest of his rookie season he looked like a player that had no business being in the NHL. Never showed any improvement in his game.
He played 3 games, had a goal and an assist, 6 shots, in 33 5 vs 5 minutes in the preseason. He had 8 individual scoring chances. And he scored goals down the stretch when the team was actually in a playoff race while the rest of the team collapsed.

Yakupov scored in 13 of 48 games. Prorated to 82 games that would be scoring in 22 games. How many rookies do you think have done that over the last 20 years. He had points in 25 of 48 games. Again prorated to 82 games that would be points in 43 games. He had points in 8 of his first 10 games and had only one streak of 4 games without a point. And he scored goals down the stretch when the team was actually in a playoff race while the rest of the team collapsed. Not exactly something to be criticized for. Are you sure your memory is accurate?
 

The Nuge

Some say…
Jan 26, 2011
27,335
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British Columbia
Not that I'm trying to rain insults against the Oilers or piling on, but Yakupov was badly, badly managed. He wasn't developed correctly (the later on lack of translation and communication on Pulujarvi for like a year was maddening as it seemingly showed to me that the Oilers has not learned and were risking derailing another high promise prospect) and every time it seemed like he started to click, they ripped the rug out from underneath him. I feel like the kid was definitely confused and felt he was treated unfairly.

Your comments about Derek Roy are on point IMO and one of the biggest examples of the organization's failures on Yakupov. It is the same piece of evidence I was using years ago in stating that Yakupov likely was serviceable and work looking into. We're talking about Roy who wasn't in the league a year later making Yakupov look highly serviceable. I wanted the Flames to nab Yakupov and get a guy like Stajan to do the same as Roy with Yakupov (much to my own fan base's ridicule), but I could see that there was a serious problems in Yakupov's deployment and seemingly communication on what they wanted from him.

In Aesop's fable, there's a story about a cat and a fox. The fox brags about the different ways he can avoid the dogs to the cats single method. Dogs arrive and the cat avoids the dogs, but the fox cannot decide which of the many methods to use. Ultimately the fox's indecision causes it to be captured and killed by the dogs.

I felt this was kinda the case with Yakupov. Although everyone ridicules him for not being elite in any specific manner and a bit undersized, I always felt that he was at least some sort of jack of all trades kind of player and should have been at least a solid middle 6 occasional top line player. When a guy like CMD or Roy sat him down and told him to focus on specific things, he was serviceable and effective. When given no instructions he'd do a ton of everything and fail because he couldn't use his teammate effectively and IMO his teammates weren't too sure how to predictably use him and possibly would decide not to use him at all.

I've always felt that Yakupov's failure distilled into a single concept, communication. I agree Yakupov seemed to work hard, but he often seemed to work hard in the wrong ways. But we also saw glimpses of nobodies and talents bringing out his talent and in those situations, it was always credited to communication and discussion with him. I seem to recall there was an Galchenyuk article that kinda scolded Yakupov for not learning English and instead approaching him constantly and asking questions in Russian. For that reason, I feel that was the reason why he failed. It was also quite odd to see several seasons later something similar happen to Pulujarvi. The articles that mentioned that a translator was brought in (but not right away) is kinda mind boggling. Why Yakupov and Pulujarvi and the Oilers took so long to figure out that something as simple as talking was straining the relationship is kinda strange.

You’re kind of blending the 2 of them. Yak didn’t have an English teacher iirc, but he made noticeable improvements every year. He really didn’t speak much English to start but he definitely worked at it a lot. It’s also hard to really put blame on that considering he was leader in goals and points for rookies in 12/13 (beating Huberdeau, Tarasenko, Gallagher, Saad, Coyle, Schwartz, etc) when he barely spoke any English. You’re definitely right about him not seemingly working at the right things though.

Pulju on the other hand had a tutor essentially right from the start when it was clear he couldn’t communicate, but he refused to go, so what are you supposed to do?

Edmonton screws up a lot of prospects and I'm the first to call them out for it. But I feel Nail was doomed to fail no matter what team drafted him.

There was no way he'd have accepted going to the minors and would have bolted to Russia.. And no one will ever convince me he'd have developed into a solid player there.

Had the work ethic and talent. But he didn't have the mindset or determination to understand the team aspect of the game.

He was the leading rookie scorer. The NHL was clearly the place for him. He was on pace for 29-24-53 as a rookie (lockout season), and was getting better as the season went on. Also, right up until he was finally traded, there were games where things would suddenly click, and he was the best player on the ice. Yakupov was 100% a case of a messed up development, and it came in his sophomore season fully thanks to Dallas Eakins. The chicken with his head cut off comparisons didn’t really start until after Eakins started “teaching” Yakupov
 
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TheWhiskeyThief

Registered User
Dec 24, 2017
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This thread made me look up Russian speaking Sarnia alumni of that time, and I am now wondering if the three disappointments that came from that organization - Yakupov, Alex Galchenyuk, and Goldobin - are just a coincidence. All of them show signs of "go at it alone" and coachability issues. Another talented example from that time frame is Tony DeAngelo, who I think fell in the draft due to undisciplined approach to the game. On the bright side, DeAngelo seems to be finally making it.
As we now know (allegedly) Sarnia was a really toxic environment at the time.
 

lawrence

Registered User
May 19, 2012
15,883
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He's not blistering fast but has decent speed. Frankly I never saw any indication of him being intimidated or afraid to go to the dirty areas. In fact just the opposite. He liked to muck around near the net. That's where he scored almost all of his goals from.

IcyData » Nail Yakupov Stats

Yakupov never adjusted to the NHL game.

it's kinda sad too, he didn't wanted to work out in the NHL, looking at his recent KHL stats its rather quite dissapointing. Even right now he's not even considered a top 6 player in the KHL.
 

gwh

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Mar 4, 2013
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Yak has been improving in the gulag. I d think he will have a decent career as a top line KHL player.
 

gwh

Registered User
Mar 4, 2013
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Scoring adjusted for league (using NNHLe), draft year height & weight ratio. Even most D during their draft year score. Players who are too skinny(or too heavy) for their height get discounted. Yakupov had a pro weight his draft year, something that doesn’t help up a level.

Generational players are in the 30s, all stars in the 20s, 1st liners in the upper teens, 2nd liners in the low teens, 3rd liners 6-10, 4th liners 1-5, replacement level -1 to zero.

Yakupov was a 7.86

Does your system include NHL->europe moves too on the equivalent? Does it include players that bust (=get fired after 10 games)? Because if not, it is crap.

AHL player "fail to stick rate" is nowhere in these models and it greatly hampers the results.
 

MessierII

Registered User
Aug 10, 2011
27,646
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Partially because he is a classic case of all the tools no tool box. He skated well, had pretty nice mitts and could shoot the puck. His biggest downside was his complete lack of any semblance of where to go on the ice. He would get the puck and skate around the zone into nowhere and eventually lose it. He struggled to find those sweet spots on the ice that goal scorers find. Combine that with being undersized and he just wasn’t that good. The biggest factor though was Dallas Eakins who completely destroyed his development. Nelson salvaged him for a bit but it was too late. Dallas Eakins is still to me the worst coach I have ever seen.
 

Artorius Horus T

sincerety
Nov 12, 2014
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Just for kicks, his rookie season pace in a full 82 season; 29 goals, 24 assists, 53 points.

Last 10 draft 1st overall picks rookie seasons:

2010: Taylor Hall - 22 goals, 20 assists, 42 points in 65 games (27 goal 64 point pace)
2011: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - 18 goals, 34 assists, 52 points in 62 games (29 goal, 69 point pace)
2012: Nathan MacKinnon - 24 goals, 39 assists, 63 points in 82 games
2014: Aaron Eklblad (D) - 12 goals, 28 assists, 40 points in 82 games
2015: Connor McDavid - 16 goals, 32 assists, 48 points in 45 games (28 goal, 87 point pace)
2016: Auston Matthews - 40 goals, 29 assists, 69 points in 82 games
2017: Nico Hischier - 20 goals, 32 assists, 52 points in 82 games
2018: Rasmus Dahlin (D) - 9 goals, 35 assists, 44 points in 82 games
2019: Jack Hughes - 7 goals, 14 assists, 21 points in 61 games (11 goal, 28 point pace)

With his 29 goal pace, he ranks 2nd (2 player tie) in a full 82 season
- he would of outscored (in points), Ekblad, Hischier, Dahlin and Hughes

Lets not forget how many more players he would of outscore or score more goals
in his rookie season what other rookies from 2010-2019, of all drafted players.

Unfortunately for Nail
- he got drafted by the wrong team for him; Edmonton Oilers
- he got coached by a shitty coach (during a key moment of his career); Dallas Eakins
- his confidence went from 100 to 0 in less than 6 months, which he never could retain
(FYI, when a player has zero confidence, it effects on EVERYTHING)
- he was beaten like a dog and ridiculed by the media, which would destroy any young star player
(why Jack Hughes didn't get the same treatment by the way, worst overall pick rookie numbers ever
and 99% claim it was only because he wasn't physically ready,...right)
- after he failed in Edmonton, he was never given a chance from teams he played for
 

kevsh

Registered User
Nov 28, 2018
3,200
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Not a serious question but,

If Yakupov was projected to go #1, and the Leafs were at #5, why did Burke bother to put Nail on his No-Draft list? Burke has said that they had Reilly ranked #1 anyway. And even if they weren't so high on Reilly, Nail wasn't dropping to 5.

Perhaps it was just a reminder in case he had a brain cramp just before the draft and decided to trade up?
 

Fig

Absolute Horse Shirt
Dec 15, 2014
12,957
8,449
You’re kind of blending the 2 of them. Yak didn’t have an English teacher iirc, but he made noticeable improvements every year. He really didn’t speak much English to start but he definitely worked at it a lot. It’s also hard to really put blame on that considering he was leader in goals and points for rookies in 12/13 (beating Huberdeau, Tarasenko, Gallagher, Saad, Coyle, Schwartz, etc) when he barely spoke any English. You’re definitely right about him not seemingly working at the right things though.

Pulju on the other hand had a tutor essentially right from the start when it was clear he couldn’t communicate, but he refused to go, so what are you supposed to do?

Yeah, sorry, I'm blending the communication part a little bit. Yakupov did work on his English and he did have reasonable English within a few seasons. But for whatever bizarre reason, it never seemed like he communicated properly with his line mates or coaches. It was only Roy and CMD that actually sat him down and said, "Do this." that it seemed like he ever chatted with his line mates. Yakupov hit the point in communicating in English, but he somehow didn't ever seem to pick up communication about how to play in the coach's system and with his line mates except for Roy/CMD. That's super weird.

Hmm... I guess I mixed up with JP. While sure, JP didn't show up to some English classes, but this article seems like it was inconsistent at best in the first place (only in Edmonton) and it seems odd that management didn't sit him down and try and enforce the English lessons.

Puljujarvi: What Went Wrong?

In which this time, it's English in its totality which probably means communication about playing in the coach's system and line mates is problematic which seems like it's communication issues at the crux of the problem all over again.

There's also rumors I heard that JP was a gym rat... but somehow he had learned many exercises incorrectly and that was a contributing factor to his injuries. If these rumors are true, then again, why doesn't management step in? Why is there seemingly so little communication?
 

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