Here's my little essay for the day. I guess those four years in University better be worth something, eh?
First off, I don't think the NHL will expand again. I say the same for Baseball and Football too. There will likely always be an open pool of cities to receive sports franchises and teams will move back and forth over the decades.
I will spare talks about Winnipeg and Quebec City as I do not believe they have a sound chance of reclaiming NHL teams. Their metro areas are too small to support teams with these kinds of salaries and only Winnipeg has recently built a facility (though it is easily 2000-3000 seats shy of current NHL arena standards). I would rather talk about cities that have arenas with suitable capacities and have metro areas that can realistically support a team.
This does not detract from the loyalty of citizens in Winnipeg or Quebec City to the game of Hockey but the same kind of 'loyalties' exist in Montana, the Dakotas, Wisconsin, and Northern Michigan; and, there is little or no discussion about franchises being established in those markets due to the logistics of those areas not being viable for the NHL. Sadly, as I would honestly love to see some more Canadian content in the NHL, I feel the same is true of Winnipeg and Quebec City.
I would put
Houston on the top of the list as the next city to get an NHL team. KC might have an open building but I will address why I think they won't get the team further down.
In Houston's case, they do have the issue of the Aeros and the possibility of running three franchises in the Toyota Center during the months of September - June. Realistically, it would make sense that the Aeros would move to another city and the NHL would move into Houston. That is basically what happened in Nashville, Atlanta, Minnesota, and Columbus before they were granted NHL teams.
Houston has had professional hockey since the 1970s so I think the argument for 'non-traditional' market is not really that sound. Texas has become a hotbed for hockey, much like the Carolinas have in the last fifteen years. The CHL, AHL, NAHL, and NHL combined for 13 active franchises in the state of Texas. There was also an ECHL team operating in Texas last year.
Houston has the available arena and an active push by its owner (Les Alexander) to acquire another major-league tenant for the Toyota Center. Houston has a suitable population to support all of the 'Big-4' as well as their newly acquired MLS franchise. It's CMA population is approximately 5 million and it is unlikely that TV revenues of the Dallas Stars would be affected by the existence of a Houston team.
I will place
Kansas City second mainly due to its available arena and the fact that their ownership has expressed interest in the NHL; however, I think Kansas City has a greater interest in landing an NBA team. Stern has expressed interest in Oklahoma city as the 'forerunner' but he too may be just talking that same
lawyer-speak that Bettman has been so well known to do.
In KC's case, they were at one time the headquarters for NCAA Basketball. There is a far longer tradition with 'hoops' there than 'puck.' Besides, Missouri does not have an NBA team. For TV ratings, they'd have the entire state (and possibly the periphery states) watching NBA games. If there's a 2nd NHL team, then the Blues' TV money will be sliced virtually in half (though probably more like 40%).
Also remember that the Kansas City Scouts lasted only two seasons with the NHL when the Kemper Arena was 'state-of-the-art.' I'm not saying that the NHL couldn't fly there but I honestly think that if the ownership of the new Sprint Center could choose, their overwhelming favorite would be to land an NBA team.
Portland I would place third but I still believe they will not get an NHL team before Houston. Their current situation with the Blazers suggests a rather poor outlook if an NHL team were to reside there. Much like the Islanders lease -- were SMG is getting virtually all the revenue generated in the building -- a potential Portland NHL team will suffer tremendously with the current deal in the Rose Garden.
Portland is not unfamiliar with Hockey (it has excellent numbers for its WHL franchise) but unless some major changes were made with the facilities management of the Rose Garden, I doubt any owner would want to throw their money away. Lord knows the trouble that the Blazers, alone, are going through.
I also think that Portland, currently, has a greater interest in landing an MLB franchise. Since Baseball's season runs mostly counter to the NBA season, it is more likely that the team would be successful -- considering that the TV, and ticket competition would be less fierce than say an NHL team with a simultaneous season. There has been a lot of talk between the Florida Marlins ownership and the Mayor of Portland and the Governor of Oregon in recent months. If MLB is too afraid to test the waters in Las Vegas, Portland might be the best spot to move the beleaguered Marlins.
Besides, a lot of the 'talk' of NHL there has died out since the late 90s. Much of that may have been due to the ongoing arena management problems with the Rose Garden or Paul Allen's dissent towards Hockey but there have been no resumed talks about Hockey in Portland beyond internet message boards. Or at least there have not been any recent talks to my knowledge.
Oklahoma City is almost a mirror-image to Kansas City's situation but I will place them 4th due to their current dealings with the NBA.
The advantage of OKC over say KC is that they have no other major sport to compete with and their CHL attendance numbers rival many AHL franchise numbers. There certainly is a strong interest in Hockey in OKC but would they rather opt for the NBA -- especially considering that they are hosting an NBA team now and have been 'promised' as the next descendant of the NBA's expansion/relocation? I think they would.
The Ford Center is state-of-the-art but if you have a choice between the 2nd most popular sport in the US and the 4th (and possibly 5th in some cases, as Soccer is starting to gain popularity) where would you rather go to? It's not to say that the NHL wouldn't work in OKC but a franchise there will almost certainly come under the same level of scrutiny as the likes of Nashville, Carolina, Dallas, Phoenix, Columbus, Anaheim, Miami, and -- up until recently -- Tampa Bay. Though, the same is probably true for every team save Portland from the 'Northernists' perspective.
Would an NHL franchise in OKC be a flavor-of-the-month or could they be long-lasting? Honestly, I don't know enough about the Hockey situation in OKC to speculate. But if they do land an NBA and the NHL lands a team in Houston, I would hope that OKC would be awarded the Aeros or an expansion AHL franchise.
Frankly, I think the NBA is where you will see expansion. It has, in recent years, developed into the 2nd most watched and played sport on Earth. To not have 32 teams (like the NFL) would probably be more detrimental to the league than beneficial. With more players coming from other countries around the globe -- and with the smaller rosters that NBA teams require -- it seems like a no-brainer. I strongly believe we will see 2 more NBA teams in the next 10 years.
If that's the case, my hunch is that KC, OKC, and LV are on the NBA's radar screens. Sacramento and Orlando are having arena issues much like the Penguins and Islanders are having in the NHL. It's not happening with the same volition as the NHL but you WILL hear relocation talk along the same lines for those two franchises in the next five years. The NBA has had far more relocations than it would like to admit but if Sacramento and Orlando don't do anything about their buildings, they're as good as gone.
I also am inclined to believe that LV will either become home to Baseball or Basketball but no other league will want to invest there. I actually think that Vegas would be best suited for Basketball but for some reason I think they're going to land Baseball (probably due to the struggling arena/attendance issues with the Marlins and D-Rays and a preference to relocate into a market with no major-league competition).
These are still hunches but I think there is a strong basis in logic! The next 10 years ought to be very interesting in North America's pro-sports world.
