Post-mortem on the ATD 2021 Ottawa Senators.
17. Leonard “Red” Kelly, D/F
32. Mike Bossy, RW
65. Dickie Moore, LW
80. Sergei Fedorov, C
113. Alexei Kasatonov, D
128. Marian Hossa, RW
161. Bill Durnan, G
176. Jonathan Toews, C
209. Sergei Gonchar, D
224. Scotty Bowman, coach
257. Denis Savard, C
272. Igor Larionov, C
301. Bob Goldham, D
320. Sergei Kapustin, LW
353. John Carlson, D
368. Pavol Demitra, RW/LW/C
416. Leo Reise Jr, D
449. Ron Ellis, RW
464. Derek Sanderson, C
492. Percy LeSueur, G
497. Wendel Clark, LW
512. Ivan Hlinka, C
545. Steve Thomas, RW/LW
560. Mattias Ohlund, D
Power Play 1: Moore - Savard - Bossy - Kelly - Gonchar
Power Play 2: Kapustin - Fedorov - Larionov - Kasatonov - Gonchar/Carlson
Penalty Kill 1: Sanderson-Fedorov-Reise-Kasatonov
Penalty Kill 2: Toews-Hossa-Kelly-Goldham
Other PKers: Larionov, Ellis, Carlson
Coach Scotty Bowman will have the option to run out an all-Russian five man unit, designed on the model of the Soviet
Green Unit of the 1980s and the
Russian Five of the Detroit Red Wings in the mid-90s. Kasatonov played in the Green Unit with Larionov, and Fedorov played in the Russian Five with Larionov.
Kapustin-Fedorov-Larionov
Kasatonov-Gonchar
I had a great time building this team. I felt like I really got to build a balanced team with a consistent style that matches what I would like to see in my team.
I put less priority on drafting new players this time around, so I took a few players that I've drafted before. I had Sergei Kapustin, Sergei Fedorov, Pavol Demitra, and Alexei Kasatonov in ATD 2009. And I drafted Hossa in ATD 2014.
Why did I lose? I drafted for style/fit over value a few times and it probably added up enough to cost me against the best teams. I would say it's the same reason I lost in the final in ATD2011.
I also would have liked to draft a few more pre-WWII players, and I was pretty close a few times. I would have taken Nighbor at 32 if he didn't go at 31, for one. I just ended up seeing the best value and fit more often with more modern players. And when I chose to go with the Russian unit that meant a certain percentage of my team was going to be more recent.
Notes on a few picks.
- No regrets on taking Kelly at 17.
- Mike Bossy at 32 over Cook and Makarov probably raised a few eyebrows. I'd become higher on Bossy in the past year, especially his ability to maintain his scoring against the best competition and his ability to fit with other top players without taking anything off the table. I felt like he was underrated and wanted to boost him a bit.
- Interesting to look back and see that I ended up going with the Russian Five but passed up Fetisov at 17 and Makarov at 32. I don't regret either of those picks, I liked my Moore-Bossy combo with Kelly at the back, and I like the ability to have the Russian Five be a second line instead of a first line.
- I like Dickie Moore at 65 as well, I think he's like Bossy in that he also scales really well with other good players and doesn't take anything off the table.
- I was always thinking of Fedorov as a second liner when I picked him, and I was going to pick my first line centre later, but I was still keeping a lot of options on the table.
- Kasatonov ended up being a key pick for my Russian Five, but I probably would have picked J.C. Tremblay if Leaf Lander hadn't picked him right before me. Obviously in that case I wouldn't have been able to pick Gonchar later.
- Toews-Hossa on a third line is one of the ATD builds I've had in mind for some time and I pulled the trigger here. It's a bit earlier than they went before, maybe a case where I left some value on the table, but I think they were an absolute monster together IRL and worth the picks.
- I never know what to do with goalies. In this case I just grabbed Durnan during a run on goalies. I do like the fact that he got some buzz as best goalie in history when he played. Not so much the playoff record, although it seems a bit unfair to boil his whole career down to a handful of games. In hindsight, maybe I should have picked the other player I was considering at this point -- Vladimir Krutov, who went to nabby12 with the very next pick. Krutov instead of Kapustin on that second line would have been sick. In that case I would have taken Hugh Lehman or Roberto Luongo as a low end starter later in the draft. This is probably my biggest regret.
- The Sergei Gonchar pick is what really set the course for the rest of my team. I was also considering taking a top defensive partner for Kelly, but at this point I decided "I'm going to take Gonchar at 209, Bowman at 224, a #1 C at #257, Larionov at #272 and do a Russian Five." And it played out just how I had planned.
- Unfortunately I got scooped on Bob Goldham as a partner for Kelly, and my backup plan Cy Wentworth, so I had to trade some value for Goldham.
- I had John Tonelli and Gary Roberts in mind at #368 for the LW of Toews and Hossa, with the goal of making that a really hard physical line in addition to the EV scoring and two way play. Unfortunately they both went in the previous 10 picks, so I went with Demitra, doubling down on the EV scoring but leaving me without a physical line in my top 3 lines.