GDT: The Draft Lottery Sucks - Coyotes Get #5 Pick

[azcanuck]

Montreal has struggled to score goals so they will go with Zadina since Sach will most likely go second.
I am highly suspect of Brady Tkachuck.
this is a very deep draft at the top. The first three guys are pretty well set but after that there is some very good prospects available.

 

[The Feckless Puck]

Here's a list of everyone's draft rankings.

2018 NHL Draft Rankings

13-2 experts vote in favour of Tkachuk over Wahlstrom.

One of those guys has Tkachuk ranked 2OA, so I think a giant grain of salt needs to be on the menu for "expert" draft ranking lists.

Should also be noted that Chayka's analytics likely don't line up 1:1 to the conventional assessment of prospects, and based on his previous picks I don't think he values the "intangibles" argument that is used with the Tkachuk boys as much as others do.

 

[rt]

... I don't think he values the "intangibles" argument that is used with the Tkachuk boys as much as others do.

?!?!? I remember last draft day (1&2) a little differently, I guess. I feel like all he talked about were intangibles and I got the impression that was #1 on his list by a wide margin. He went on and on about it. Same for Chychrun especially and to a lesser extent (still prominently) Keller.

If you listen to interviews from coaches and especially teammates of Keller and Chychrun, these guys are viewed as absolute freaks. Machines hard wired for self improvement who have supreme confidence in all things. Chayka is also a robot and he’s very interested in intangibles. He wants to draft fellow terminators.

 

[Jakey53]

One of those guys has Tkachuk ranked 2OA, so I think a giant grain of salt needs to be on the menu for "expert" draft ranking lists.

Should also be noted that Chayka's analytics likely don't line up 1:1 to the conventional assessment of prospects, and based on his previous picks I don't think he values the "intangibles" argument that is used with the Tkachuk boys as much as others do.

You are right. The real draft experts are on this board.

 

[Jakey53]

?!?!? I remember last draft day (1&2) a little differently, I guess. I feel like all he talked about were intangibles and I got the impression that was #1 on his list by a wide margin. He went on and on about it. Same for Chychrun especially and to a lesser extent (still prominently) Keller.

If you listen to interviews from coaches and especially teammates of Keller and Chychrun, these guys are viewed as absolute freaks. Machines hard wired for self improvement who have supreme confidence in all things. Chayka is also a robot and he’s very interested in intangibles. He wants to draft fellow terminators.

Tkachuk or Bouchard then?

 

[The Feckless Puck]

If you listen to interviews from coaches and especially teammates of Keller and Chychrun, these guys are viewed as absolute freaks. Machines hard wired for self improvement who have supreme confidence in all things. Chayka is also a robot and he’s very interested in intangibles. He wants to draft fellow terminators.

I think I need to clarify - the "intangibles" Chayka is interested in are not the "intangibles" that the old boys' network might laud. In Tkachuk's case, I get the feeling that a lot of evaluators are in love with his grit/sand and his "puttin' on the foil" attitude as much as anything in his actual on-ice skill. I believe Chayka bows to a different god in that respect. I don't think it's quite as big a gap as, say, sabermetrics versus traditional baseball, but I believe Chayka knows that you can get any number of "Beast Mode" players for relatively cheap, and that what you have to draft is skill and inherent talent.

 

[BUX7PHX]

If I had to take a guess on our pick based upon what it appears Chayka would value most, it would be in this order:

Wahlstrom
Dobson
Hughes
Tkachuk (might be a little low, and probably on an even keel with Dobson and Hughes - I think Wahlstrom is viewed more highly than these 3)
Smith
Bouchard
Boqvist
Hayton (may also be in the same tier as Smith, Bouchard, and Boqvist - just some things about each one that have me slotting them a little lower than the 4 above)

 

[Plub]

One of those guys has Tkachuk ranked 2OA, so I think a giant grain of salt needs to be on the menu for "expert" draft ranking lists.

Should also be noted that Chayka's analytics likely don't line up 1:1 to the conventional assessment of prospects, and based on his previous picks I don't think he values the "intangibles" argument that is used with the Tkachuk boys as much as others do.

Are intangibles being used that much for him? It isn't really necessary in his case. He's big, has great hands, great in front of the net (which all teams need, especially us) he has a mean side to his game, he skates well, he passes well, he sees the ice well, and has a great motor which most big guys do not. Again, some of you are acting like Tkachuk is some scrub or something.

 

[The Feckless Puck]

Are intangibles being used that much for him? It isn't really necessary in his case. He's big, has great hands, great in front of the net (which all teams need, especially us) he has a mean side to his game, he skates well, he passes well, he sees the ice well, and has a great motor which most big guys do not. Again, some of you are acting like Tkachuk is some scrub or something.

He's not a scrub, but his production is, IMO, not worth using a top-5 pick on. We have a dozen guys in our system that can manage that level of output in juniors already. If the deciding factor is his size and attitude, well... that's not exactly a commodity that's in low supply in UFA.

 

[IPreferPi]

Are intangibles being used that much for him? It isn't really necessary in his case. He's big, has great hands, great in front of the net (which all teams need, especially us) he has a mean side to his game, he skates well, he passes well, he sees the ice well, and has a great motor which most big guys do not. Again, some of you are acting like Tkachuk is some scrub or something.

His production at his age is underwhelming for a top five pick. The tools may be there but ordinarily you don't draft a guy in the top five based on tools alone.

 

[Plub]

31 in 40 while having a terrible shooting % in the NCAA and finishing 6th in scoring in U20s isn't too bad. I certainly expect him to put up more goals for BU next year.

 

[_Del_]

You can get size and snarl easily. But it's harder to get size, snarl, and top six talent in the same package. That's why GM's love Perry, Tkachuk, Neal, etc.

I think Tkachuk would be a great complementary player on a line with Strome or Keller, etc. He's got better skating than his brother, and he's more or less ready to contribute at the NHL at some level. Freshman production doesn't worry me much. He has an extremely high floor. That's why he's so high on lists.

I still think Wahlstrom would be my pick, but I'm not going to be disappointed if Waltsson is our pick.

 

[IPreferPi]

Crouse was considered to have a high floor too with his skill set, which led to a top 10 consensus ranking in a very strong draft class. Although we didn't use our first on him, that skillset still hasn't translated to NHL success yet three years later, and quite a few others drafted after him in the first like Konecny, Boeser, Barzal, Connor, Debrusk who had better draft year production translated that to NHL success.

 

[_Del_]

I agree with you. I'm just telling you why he's high on lists. I still prefer him to a D there.

 

[The Feckless Puck]

Look, if we pick Tkachuk, I won't be upset. At this point basically everyone that we can pick at #5 is going to be good in one way or another, so right now I'm just nitpicking. But, having said that, my preference is for Wahlstrom because of the huge falloff from Keller and Stepan in team scoring that we currently have.

 

[Vinny Boombatz]

I'm not going to be upset with a Tkachuk result either, or for that matter Boqvist, Hughes, Dobson, Bouchard either. Kotkaniemi also impressed me as someone who could jump into the top 10. I'd love to get one of Berggren, Norgren or Wise with our #2 Minny selection.

I'd just prefer Wahlstrom as the guy who has scored at every level at a very high rate. Tkachuk doesn't seem to be the guy who's going to pot 40 goals. Wahlstrom on the other hand looks like someone who should.

 

[IPreferPi]

Yeah, despite my critiques of Tkachuk I will be happy to have another Tkachuk in Coyotes red. I just have a clear preference for a few other names at 5OA.

 

[Vinny Boombatz]

Perfect scenario is that something spooks everyone off Zadina and he falls to five.

 

[Vinny Boombatz]

This is just one of those times where I'd wish that Chayka would pull another trigger like he did with Chychrun and move up 3 spots to get Svechnikov. We certainly don't look like a bottom feeder the last half season and if you added Svech to the roster and he produces like he looks like he's going to then most certain we're in a playoff spot...so trading away something in the future for that one prime asset I'd be ok with. Plus, Wahlstrom doesn't look like he would be able to come right away, he will probably need 1 or 2 years.

What would be the cost of moving up 3 spots? Especially since Carolina would probably want one of the highly touted Dmen given that they have Aho, Tevo & Skinner on the wing...and that Faulk presumably wants out or they want to move him or both, they should want to get Hanifin some help. We move up 3 spots, get our guy and what would we have to give up. I'm sure they would want a first, and if it was in 2020, then I'm all for it.

I don't want to give up the 2019 draft slot just in case we miss the playoffs, I guess we could lottery protest it...which I'd be ok with. We've got the pieces, and need that one goal-scoring guy who can contribute immediately, Svechnikov checks all the boxes except that he's a LH shot.

 

[Vinny Boombatz]

that might be a little too much to move up 3 spots, I'm just not sure that Carolina would want anything in our stable...maybe PO Joseph, he had a really good year and looks like he could potentially come out after 1 more year.

 

[IPreferPi]

There's a difference between trading up from 20 to 16 and trading up from 5 to 2. And Carolina's blueline has Faulk, Hanifin, Slavin, Pesce, Fleury, McKeown, and Bean, so there's a lot youth and talent there already. They need forward talent as much as we do.

 

[The Feckless Puck]

This is just one of those times where I'd wish that Chayka would pull another trigger like he did with Chychrun and move up 3 spots to get Svechnikov.

If we could do that without giving up our 2019 1st, Chayka would be my hero.

 

[hbk]

One of those guys has Tkachuk ranked 2OA, so I think a giant grain of salt needs to be on the menu for "expert" draft ranking lists.

Should also be noted that Chayka's analytics likely don't line up 1:1 to the conventional assessment of prospects, and based on his previous picks I don't think he values the "intangibles" argument that is used with the Tkachuk boys as much as others do.

I have Tkachuk at 3. I debated long and hard to put him at 2.

My point earlier was at a high level most (nearly all) expert lists have Tkachuk as clearly a BPA over Wahlstrom.

 

[hbk]

Perfect scenario is that something spooks everyone off Zadina and he falls to five.

One of Tkachuk or Zadina will fall to AZ at 5. The need at d for both Ottawa and Montreal is massive.

 

[The Feckless Puck]

One of Tkachuk or Zadina will fall to AZ at 5. The need at d for both Ottawa and Montreal is massive.

The question remains - are both Ottawa and Montreal dumb enough to draft for need?

If Zadina falls to 5, we take him and celebrate in the streets.